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twinsfan34

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Everything posted by twinsfan34

  1. twinsfan34
    When I see the advanced stats...Salty isn't very good. Which advanced stats are you referring to? The Boston Red Sox, the kind of advanced stats, started David Ross over Salty in 4 of the 6 games that mattered most. People say 'advanced stats' but fail to show them. Makes no sense. I give you, Bill James (advanced stats guru) & The World Series Champions, The Boston Red Sox.
  2. twinsfan34
    I use fangraphs all the time... But...I still don't see Salty mentioned anywhere on the page of that link with any sort of positive defensive metric. All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size. The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best. He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish. And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220. There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy. If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.
  3. twinsfan34
    I'm seeing Marlins or Blue Jays... Do you have a link with the Twins in the mix..?
  4. twinsfan34
    I'd take him over Salty. Especially for the price that Navarro would claim. He was a beast for Tampa in the playoffs a few years back. He speaks Spanish (he's from Venezuela) as well, something many here are waiting in a veteran. Spanish speaking coach on the field and mentor to Pinto, who is also Venezuelan.
  5. twinsfan34
    For the playoffs, Salty struck out 19 times in 32 at bats. While hitting .188 for the playoffs. That's not going to help us get out of the 1st RD of the playoffs if we'd get there. He's just so bad. And for $10M per...? Short end of the platoon to David Ross...
  6. twinsfan34
    The thing I can't get past, is in the 6 most important games of the year for the Boston Red Sox, Salty found himself on the short end of the platoon to a 36 year old journeyman catcher. It wasn't for Ross' offense either, he clearly is the inferior hitter. It wasn't because he was hot, he hit .181 for the series. It wasn't to keep the Cardinal runners in check, as they aren't a running team. Only stole 6 bases in 17 games. Short end of the platoon to David Ross...
  7. twinsfan34
    You put an argument without any backing? No links? I live in Texas. I've seen Salty try to catch and try to hit. It's not pretty. I lived in MN until 2009. I've seen AJ in MN and here. AJ's better.
  8. twinsfan34
    Salty is a strikeout machine... Put him on the mound. He's good for 15K/9.
  9. twinsfan34
    AJ would be about equal in terms of defense...He doesn't allow quite as many PB, his fielding % is near tops in the league annually at .995, and he throws out baserunners just a bit better than Doumit and Salty at 75% success rate against him. He's a better hitter, doesn't strike out. In fact he's a pretty tough out. Ever seen that guy foul over 10+ balls in an at bat before? Plus he's a Jack-a$$ to the other team. And cheaper. And he might actually want to sign with us. He's older is the only downfall. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pierza.01.shtml
  10. twinsfan34
    According to the stats....Salty is worse catcher or comparable to Doumit and Pinto. At every level. Is there some other metric we're looking at here to say he's even good defensively? Maybe passed balls? Caught stealing%? Fielding %? All horrible.
  11. twinsfan34
    Salty is a career .246 hitter. That's .246/.310/.428. His BB% rate is 8.1%, his SO% rate is 28.4% For his career, he's allowed 77% of baserunners to steal. In 2011 he led MLB in passed balls with 26. He's horrible by offensive standards, he's worse by defensive standards. And someone would considering paying him actual money? Ryan Doumit's career offensive line: .268/.329/.438. Doumit is better across the board. Defensively you ask? They're comparable, 76% of baserunners are successful against Doumit (still better than Salty, albeit, barely). Doumit's career high in passed balls is 9*. Salty topps that every year. *only considers seasons above 100g caught. Doumit is better in every sense of catching and hitting. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml Pinto will be better defensively and offensively than Salty. He might not outhit Doumit. Doumit is a career .268 with 2 .300+ seasons. He could hit that again. Josmil has been a better hitter and catcher at every level that Salty has played on. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pinto-001jos I see no reason why we'd pay $10M annually for one of the games worst defensive catchers (he's worse than Doumit, Doumit is not top third of catchers) who has a career average under .250.
  12. twinsfan34
    This is probably effort on the part of the Agent to get some more $$ for his client (Salty). He's a horrible catcher. Only one catcher in MLB had a worse Caught Stealing % than Salty. 79% of baserunners stole at will. Imagine what our low velocity pitching staff could do to that number. A 36 year old catcher with a .237 career average (.188 in the series) caught 4 of the 6 games in the World Series while Mr. Possible 3 years $30M rode the pine. If this is real, I feel like it's the spawn of nightmare and ground hog's day all over again.
  13. twinsfan34
    I agree Alex... Can you post a link to that in here. I'd be curious as well. Thanks
  14. twinsfan34
    I think it could be worth mentioning that Arcia's numbers dipped a bit after the wrist injury too. Target Field, at least early indications, don't favor power lefties. So that might be a factor, however, one he'll have to deal with. I'm still pretty excited about Arcia. Only 23 this upcoming season. I think he can settle down into that .270-.310 seasons annually. He'll still strikeout 110-150 times a year though. I don't see that changing much. But he'll also hit 22-35 HR as well. To me, he kind of came out of nowhere (well, AA, with a 3 weeks at AAA) to being on the Twins. So he really came up quickly. I think he can be better than Kubel.
  15. twinsfan34
    Great Research! Thanks for doing that. Might be why the Twins seem to be so much higher on him than it 'seems' on other pitchers. Because, that's an unreasonablely high amount vs LH... Even that Batting average... LH hit .292 off of him. RH hit .215 off of him. Versus RH...if his total splits...he'd be a top 5 pitcher in the game annually.
  16. twinsfan34
    I'm with you John...big Mauer guy. It got me thinking... I'm curious about Miguel Cabrera will do without Fielder protecting him, every day. Curious who they'll find to bat behind Cabrera. My personal feeling that helped Cabrera tremendously to have his best seasons ever while at age 29 and 30 seasons instead of before. Based on Prince's hit chart for 2013, he would have had 6 more HR if he had played in Rangers park, just on where the balls he hit landed. Hottter air in Texas (I live here in Dallas) would probably give another 3-4 HRs. So 6-10 HR to add to Prince's numbers, assuming the same hit chart in 2014 for the Rangers. So 31-35 HR. I can't find his spray/hit chart for 2012. http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/prince-fielder/hitchart/289889?q=prince-fielder And to the question. Kinsler, not in a million years. Fielder...a maybe, if the Twins were still in the Homerdome...but, no, for the Twins at Target Field. anyone know where to find 2012 or older spray charts?
  17. twinsfan34
    Yea. Agree. I just think homers, with the Twins, can be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Another angle if I may...I wonder how many of those HRs are from LH bats? If a lot...those numbers likely would drop some at Target Field. This makes a worse market for the pitcher, but better value for the Twins. As they can 'knock off' x amount of homers for LH each year that another team couldn't.
  18. twinsfan34
    Arroyo is an annual leader among Gopher-ball Pitchers (HR allowed)... I guess part of that is pitching 200 innings each year. But who else has pitched 200 innings annually...how are his HR allowed numbers? Home Runs 2006 NL 31 (2nd) 2007 NL 28 (8th) 2008 NL 29 (6th) 2009 NL 31 (2nd) 2010 NL 29 (3rd) 2011 NL 46 (1st) 2012 NL 26 (5th) 2013 NL 32 (1st) Adam Wainwright...15-17 HR for 230+ innings http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml Felix Hernandez...17-19 HR for 200+ innings... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml Justin Verlander...14-24 HR for 200+ innings... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml Tim Lincecum...10-23 HR for 186+ innings... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml Cole Hamels...19-28 HR for 200+ innings... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml Roy Halladay...10-26 HR for 230+ innings... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml I'd personally take a pass on Arroyo, unless it's $6-8M annually, max 2 years, unless there's an option, like I mentioned before. Has to pitch 200+ innings, ERA under 4, for the 3rd year.
  19. twinsfan34
    I like how teams are starting to put together contracts on if you missed time, this year is voidable, etc. I'm sure the Twins are smarter than me. But I'd have something like, if Bronson pitches 200+ IP with ERAs under 4.00 for 2014 and 2015, aka his cumulative 2005 to 2013, then he gets a guaranteed 3rd year. If he doesn't, Twins can void/buyout that last year for $500k type of scenario.
  20. twinsfan34
    More on Walker... Jerry (San Diego): Where would you rate Adam Brett Walker's power on the scouting scale? Do you anticipate he will make enough contact as a hitter to be a good prospect as he moves up through the minors or do you think his Ks will get the best of him? Jim Shonerd: At least a 70 raw power. As we’ve written elsewhere, he’s right there with Sano in terms of sheer power. Before this year, I would’ve said yes, strikeouts will be his undoing, but he’s made promising progress cutting them down. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-chat-with-jim-shonerd-3/ I'm highest on Vargas...Walker 2nd...Harrison and Dalton. My guess on Dalton is AAAA player at best.
  21. twinsfan34
    Though just a small sample size...3 and myself. I tend to like Vargas the most, too. He lost a lot of 'development' with that 50 game suspension a couple years back (2011). It was due to taking Phentermine, which is used to help in weight loss. Ft. Myers had him listed as 6'5'' 274 this past season...
  22. twinsfan34
    Great trade for Texas. A bit more in salary, but it opens up a spot for Profar. Living in the Dallas area, I can't wait to see him play everyday.
  23. twinsfan34
    Nailed it. you can find a RP anywhere. Refurbish almost any 2 pitch starter.
  24. twinsfan34
    Achter...relief pitchers are a dime a dozen. Can find them anywhere...failed starters, etc. Couldn't risk losing Polanco and Kepler. No brainers. Did Vargas have to be added?
  25. twinsfan34
    So what's everyone's take on these four guys? BB% and K% rates apply (see far right). Ceiling, Floor, ETA (if ever)? How would you rank them in terms of likelihood to make it to MLB and do well? a. Kenny Vargas b. Dalton Hicks c. Travis Harrison d. Adam Walker [TABLE=class: grid, width: 897] Year Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS IBB BB/PA SO/PA Kenny Vargas 2012 21 Beloit MIDW A 41 186 154 22 49 10 1 11 36 0 28 41 0.318 0.419 0.610 1.030 3 15.1% 22.0% [/TD] 2013 22 Fort Myers FLOR A+ 125 520 457 68 122 33 1 19 93 0 50 105 0.267 0.344 0.468 0.813 3 9.6% 20.2% Dalton Hicks 2013 23 Cedar Rapids MIDW A 89 400 354 50 105 31 0 13 82 0 34 85 0.297 0.355 0.494 0.850 2 8.5% 21.3% [TD]2013 23 Fort Myers FLOR A+ 42 176 148 18 40 8 0 4 28 0 22 38 0.270 0.364 0.405 0.769 0 12.5% 21.6% Travis Harrison 2013 20 Cedar Rapids MIDW A 129 537 450 66 114 28 0 15 59 2 68 125 0.253 0.366 0.416 0.782 3 12.7% 23.3% Adam Walker 2013 21 Cedar Rapids MIDW A 129 553 508 83 141 31 7 27 109 10 31 115 0.278 0.319 0.526 0.844 3 5.6% 20.8% [/TABLE] Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
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