twinsfan34

The defensive (MLB) stats...are a small. sample. size. as well if you're considering the range factor, rtot, rdrs, etc. He had only 1/8th of a season defensively. Can be trends with that as far as the putouts, assists, etc. Salty only threw out 21% of baserunners, allowed a MLB high, 89 SB, yet he's the 'every day catcher' (121 games caught) for the World Champions.

And by "every day catcher" you mean...plays 120 games at the position...

I think your reasoning is right. Love the "whatever that means"...part too. Dozier, love the guy. Great clubhouse guy, ethics, leadership, and adds some pop as a 2B. 874 ABs...he's hit .240. I wonder how many guys after that many at-bats have improved their AVG by even...say .030 pts? (.270) Or what's the likelihood he even gets to .260? I almost think the Cubs are more into potential right now. And do they move Castro over with Baez coming up (possible Opening Day Starter to late May call up) or just scrap Castro altogether? The news stories (and the benchings) seem so down on the guy. He's only 23 though.

Cheaper than Price by a mile. I Like Samardzija. But I can't see the Cubs parting with him for less than at least 1 top 30 prospect (Buxton, Sano, Meyer) or 2 in the top 100 (Rosario, Stewart). The Cubs have an awesome farm system, tons of international flyers, and are looking at being a serious contender via the farm system come 2016 and beyond.

This. I could leave Hughes out in the cold (people here had to convince me, but I am now against adding Hughes). I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.

I'd be curious the MLB average each year as well. Sort of a 'weighted' average.

This could lead to some more interesting possibilities than the current FA crop of SPs.

I'm on board with this. I see this as similar to the Pittsburgh Pirates scenario. The meat of their offense is populated by Pirates prospects. McCutchen, Marte, Walker, Alvarez, Tabata, Mercer. The pitching staff is starting to be populated from young guys from their minor league system. Locke, Cole, Watson, Wilson. (there's a ton of pitching help on the way in their farm system for the next 1-2 years) Then they start to take fliers on free agent pitching as the team isn't far away.

My apologies Paul...you have your own podcast. http://talk2contact.podomatic.com/entry/2013-11-11T16_19_20-08_00 So...yeaaaaaaah.

Great graph. Design, etc.

Great analysis.

Paul, I had the same questions. I expounded upon them a bit here. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=4619

Humorous, yet true. All he has to do is hit at or above .230 and more than 12 HR. I don't think that'd be a problem. Look at Manny Machado. He only hit .266 at AA. His AVG/OBP/SLG line looks like this .266/.352/.438. 10.5% BB/PA and 15.3% SO/PA. Miguel Sano's AVG/OBP/SLG line: .236/.344/.571. 13.0% BB/PA and 29.3% SO/PA. Larry Walker's SO/PA at AA was 21.7%. He only hit .287. He went on to win 3 batting titles.

Kyle Gibson. Alex Meyer. Trevor May. Vance Worley. Sam Deduno. et al. When you start to turn the ship. I'm all for spending to add pieces. 2016, 2017, and 2018. I could see adding 1-2 of these FA pitchers no problem. but back to my question... How do you assess value and risk with the free agent signings? What makes it 'successful'? How could this be a successful offseason in terms of results EOY 2014 and EOY 2015?

The Pirates comment...as was the intent of the whole comment is the 'quick fix' nature. What will acquiring the top 3 free agent pitchers in this class do for the Twins? I did a write up concerning our pathetic offense...did you know with 3 Clayton Kershaw's last year (going of of their game performances)...the Twins still wouldn't have made the playoffs. We were that bad.

I never implied to acquire them (but sounds good to me). It was to play them.

Is there any less risk with signing free agents that are being discussed here? How many Free Agent pitchers worked out last year? And for how long? If I get a prospect who turns out, I get salary arbitration years too. And how do you assess 'risk'? Not winning the World Series? How many wins? This year? Next Year? What are some examples of good Free Agent signings? What made it a good signing? Admittedly, I struggle with seeing being 5-10 wins 'better' because we signed 3 guys at $40M+ per season (combined total)...for just a little better WAR (wins above replacement). When at least, with a 23-25 year old..he could be something and if he gets expensive trade him off at peak value (this is very Billy Beane separates himself from other GM's). I see that approach, unless I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox...and other top market teams...as the most obvious way to go. I could be wrong. So I'm trying to see the value or 'less risk' involved with signing these other guys? Is going 71 and 91 better than 66-96? Is going 74-88 with $40M more locked up in salaries better than top 5 draft picks each of those 4 seasons? The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.

Agree with SgtSchmidt. Want to see what Pinto can do. We have 2 pretty solid catching prospects in the minors. Brian Naverreto and Stuart Turner. They could be MLB ready by late 2015 to 2016. Be nice to know if Pinto is every day material or a hitting option or whatever. The luxury of losing is you can really find out what you have. Jose Fernandez got a chance with the Marlins after being in High A-ball. Florida State League, yes, where Byron Buxton ended up last year while hitting .326. So "if" there's a luxury of losing, it's that you can find out what you have in your minors sooner. Perhaps the equivalent of spending $15M on average free agent pitching, only nice thing is you're not committed to that bum of a free agent pitcher and his salary for a long period of time.

Almost any of the FA pitchers, by year 3, teams will be giving up good players/prospects to try to get rid of them. None of them have had more than 2 'average' seasons in a row. If the Twins have any players performing well, they need to continue to parlay those players for prospects. e.g. I'd give quite a few of them 1-2 year deals. Higher salary. Like a Josh Johnson, give him $14M for 1 year. He's 10-2 at the All-Star break, trade him to a contender at the July deadline for a AA top 100 pitching prospect (e.g. Alex Meyer) and another stud A prospect. These guys available are not good free agent pitchers. I'd big high for 1-2 year deals on these guys. Parlay them for picks if they're doing well. If they have a 2 year deal the team trading for the pitcher would get pick(s) the following year if that player leaves which would then replenish the prospects they gave up to get him while getting them in/through the playoffs. Also, I don't agree that 2017 is when our pitching prospects will arrive. The 'average' is just over 4 years for a high school pitcher. Many of these guys have already been in the minors 1-3 years. These are my timelines for when the Twins pitching prospects will arrive in the big leagues. If they don't make it by the year given or the following year - they won't be anything more than average to just not cutting it. It's the years listed (+1) or break. 2014: Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin, Trevor May (late) 2015: Mason Melotakis, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, DJ Baxendale 2016: Jose Berrios, Tyler Jones, Brett Lee, Felix Jorge, Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stephen Gonslaves, Corey Williams, Michael Sulbaran 2017: Yorman Landa, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero

New to the live talk radio stuff. Fairly new to Twinsdaily. I'm in Dallas, they have The Ticket down here. But enjoying the Twins talk. All that said...question/comment on the Analytics talk. How many analytics guys did Boston have during their early World Series runs? Bill James and...? How many now? I'm not sure quantity should be so stressed (or even really talked about), but quality. Would the Oakland A's be better if they had 10 other GM's in addition to Billy Beane? What if they hired every MLB GM from every team and added them to their front office? Outlandish I know, but you get the idea. Quantity and Quality are two different things. Would their decision making process be better with 30 guys at the GM position? I don't think there's a question of needing help to crunch numbers. Speaking as a Data Analyst, technologies & software really make crunching numbers pretty easy. It's not like the Manhattan Project where you needed 40 guys crunching math in the back room. We have calculators for that now-a-days. Same with Analytics. **Also, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the most analytics guys in the NFL. They just won their first game this past week (1-8) and the Titans gave them the game. Was a lot of press on how they use it to make their draft selections.

Video: GLEN@SCOT: Meyer hurls 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball | MLB.com Alex Meyer breaks camp as a starter... He's got as good of stuff as any pitcher on the current MLB roster.

I'd pencil in Alex Meyer as one of the five starters to start the season. Last Arizona Fall League start... Video: GLEN@SCOT: Meyer hurls 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball | MLB.com

I personally don't think the Twins should chase 30+ yr old pitchers. Only exception to 'add an arm' is when you're contending and one piece could make the difference. Here's an article found on a Boston Red Sox forum. Thought it was interesting they, who have little to no need for pitching (they did chase on Ryan Dempster though - which didn't turn out very well) and tried to get a few games out of Jake Peavy (in season trade). Lackey was a signing, ironically, at age 30. So...maybe not something the Red Sox don't do, but something this fan/writer is at least glad they don't have to play that Russian roulette again this year. Per Over the Monster, "The Red Sox thankfully don't need to invest in a Santana or Nolasco, because they've set themselves up to avoid that very thing."

I've only glanced at other top rated farm teams. So that said, maybe you know better. But I feel the Twins from those glance overs have one of the youngest group of Top Prospects - which to me is all the more impressive. You have the Buxton & Sano nearly 3 years younger than the respective league average age. This does also mean we are still a few years away, but it's encouraging to have top guys who are 2+ years younger at the same stage and often atop of the league leaders in production.