twinsfan34

True!!

AND...losing a 2nd RD pick in a very rich draft!?! (face to palm)

I wouldn't sign Drew for a bag of balls. He hit 6 for 54 or a .111 clip in the playoffs. Getting to the playoffs and sucking even worse than his .241/.324/.406 statline the past 2 years in Boston isn't worth that kind of money. Florimon hit .221/.281/.330 last year, which isn't much different than Drew. However, Florimon had the 2nd best range at SS in MLB. A dWAR of 2.1, Drew was 0.6. According the the SABR community, Florimon was the 2nd best defensive SS in the AL, Drew was a distant 7th out of 10 qualified (everyday) AL shortstops. Out of 21 MLB qualified Shortstops (full-time) he was 13th out of 21 defensively. Shortstops [TABLE=width: 600] [TR=class: tableizer-firstrow] Player Team[TH=align: right] SDI[/TH] [/TR] [TD=align: left]Alcides Escobar[/TD] [TD=align: left]KC[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.1[/TD] [TD=align: left]Pedro Florimon[/TD] [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.6[/TD] [TD=align: left]Yunel Escobar[/TD] [TD=align: left]TB[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.2[/TD] [TD=align: left]Elvis Andrus[/TD] [TD=align: left]TEX[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.3[/TD] [TD=align: left]Jhonny Peralta[/TD] [TD=align: left]DET[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.7[/TD] [TD=align: left]J.J. Hardy[/TD] [TD=align: left]BAL[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.6[/TD] [TD=align: left]Alexei Ramirez[/TD] [TD=align: left]CHW[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.4[/TD] [TD=align: left]Stephen Drew[/TD] [TD=align: left]BOS[/TD] [TD=align: right]-0.8[/TD] [TD=align: left]Asdrubal Cabrera[/TD] [TD=align: left]CLE[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.6[/TD] [TD=align: left]Erick Aybar[/TD] [TD=align: left]LAA[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.9[/TD] [TD=align: left]Jed Lowrie[/TD] [TD=align: left]OAK[/TD] [TD=align: right]-11.4[/TD] [/TABLE] Florimon had a 2.1 WAR in 134g last year. He's 26, 1 full season in the pros and will cost $495k next year. Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year, he's 30 and he'll cost at least $10M next year and beyond. $9.5M for 1 more WAR a year is overpaying even according to unweighted WAR/$ metrics. Pete Kosma, who now is available in St. Louis, was the 2nd best SS in all of baseball defensively, according to the SABR community can be had in a trade pretty easily and for a salary of less than $490K (pre-arb eligible). Kosma does not hit as well as Florimon and is barely better. Florimon in a full 150g next year could hit 15 HR...and likely improve his .221 average to .245 range. All while at a cost of a cool $500k. No-brainer. Spend that $9.5M elsewhere. Add $4M to that, get Garza. Or if even actually considering $10M or more for Drew without being stoned, pony up and go after Tanaka. 1 more Win (if Florimon doesn't improve)...isn't worth the $9.5M. You can get more WAR difference from a pitcher as you have to now subtract Florimon's 2.1 WAR as replacement.

Tigers got him...$5 per year, 2 years. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/tigers-rajai-davis-agree-to-two-year-deal.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

Davis is better than Mastro. Arguably offers more than Presley. Hits a career .294 split vs. lefties and would be the Twins only legitimate base stealing threat. He had a +6 runs for his rbaser (tied with Trout) last year. So if a game is close, did you see what Billy Hamilton did for the Reds last year in those last 13 games of the season? Baserunning matters, it's fun to watch, and it'll make relievers for the other team more likely to make mistake pitches or throw a ball away on a pickoffs, etc. For $2.5M...2 years...not a big risk. I agree with what Shane Wahl said. Hicks needs to start unless he gives a lot of reasons why he shouldn't start. He raked in Spring Training last year...so it'll have to be what he has done to address specific holes - and largely, confidence.

Rajai is a .294 lifetime hitter against Lefties... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisra01&year=Career&t=b He's a top 10 base stealer in MLB. For $2.5 Mil? Absolutely. He actually had positive dWAR last year too.

I like the move. He's a SB threat. Will hit better than anyone but Arcia in the OF. I can't see it being for a huge amount of $. Willingham...lets just make sure he's healthy and able to hit over .220 before we betroth him an OF spot...or even DH for that matter. My 'hope'...is if Willingham hits at all. He's gone at the All-Star break and maybe Buxton would be ready come Aug 1.

Is this something the Twins have taken advantage of much recently? 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 picks?

I had a few names a few weeks back...but don't have them with me now. Of the guy you mentioned, Stephen Kohlscheen, seems the most likely and most attractive. Arias is tempting, but then I saw only 18 BBs and 132 K's at A/A+ while hitting .272. Scary thing is...to think of this guy as actually on a MLB club next year...then contrast that with how much better Buxton is than this guy, while still being 2 years younger. And that's just offensively, Buxton has GG level defense already.

Arcia...in the lead. Curious what everyone's guess of that HR total is... My question... When is Sano up? I'd wager Arcia hits 21-24. If Sano is up by Mid May, that is he plays 120g, he'll hit more than Arcia.

I guess I don't see what Awards a guy won in the past as relevant to 2014 and beyond. As I cited with Barry Zito...same age, better last season, better career to that point, but yet, he only had 1 season over .500 after his age 28 season. 6 years later at age 34. But Zito had a more dominating Cy Young year than Price. If I'm a HOF committee, Cy Young's matter. If I'm a GM of a MLB team, I care what he's going to do for my team going forward. If I'm going to give a guy $30M a season he better get me some 5 WAR seasons. Otherwise I'm going to pass. I don't weight $M per WAR like some as I would take the $M per WAR based on teams without a full standard deviation from the average salaries. Can't really weigh the Yankees and Dodgers on the same scale per $M. In my opinion. So in terms of salary. It is what it is. If I'm the Yankees and I have Sano, Meyers...or the Red Sox or you name the teams who spend $150M a year (or were spending $125M a year before the new TV deal) and I say, yes. Absolutely. Meyers, Rosario, Berrios, Thorpe. Or you can have Sano and Berrios or Thorpe. $30M is about 1/6th of their salary, not a big deal. For a team like the Twins, it's double that.

Do you think Price will win a Cy Young going forward? I do like Price. A lot.

Alex Fernandez was in Class A in 2012. Arguably could have won the NL CY Young his rookie year had he finished those last 3 starts and Kershaw on his own planet.

I would not say that. I said nothing to diminish Price's value. Only that AA (inference to Myers) should be considered as a logical next step and AAA not necessarily necessary to get to MLB.

I think it's important to note that AA...in the Eastern league is looked on pretty favorably even to International League AAA. AAA isn't even a 'regular' stop for most guys who excel as rookies.

Price was a Cy Young winner...but will he ever approach that again? To me, when you say 'trading for a CY winner' it would have to mean he's likely to win another. Is he? On Meyer... I am becoming more and more of a believer for Meyer after watching much of the AFL. The AFL All-Star game, 2 sneak peak games by MLB Network, and scouts' takes. The thing with Meyer, the only thing stopping him from dominating, seems to be himself. He has that kind of stuff. 96-100 MPH fastball into the 7th inning? Big sweeping 88-90 MPH slider. A change/curve that's 'average'...if he gets either to a 'above average' to 'plus'...he's looking at 240 K's and ERAs under 3.30. I think his floor is #3/#4 starter. He's got first division starter (Ace) ceiling. Price...may or may not be losing velocity...he was injured last year - so not sure if it'll come back or not, but his pitches were 2-4 MPH lower last year vs 2012 and previous. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P&pitch=FA I'm not sure he would go 'bad' that quick though. I saw him pitch two games for the Rays last year where he was barely hitting 91MPH (instead of 96) on his fastball. He still had great command...had some help on a few pitches (some framing, some umpire favor). But the salary...If Cano can get 10 yr 243 mil...what does Price want/get? Would seem the Twins could afford 2 other middle-to-upper tier FA's at whatever price Price wants and Meyer. If we were a team like the Orioles...or a fringe team, it might be something to be seriously considered. On Buxton...Sano.... I just don't see many 19 year old's doing what they each did in A/A+ Ball respectively, who didn't go on to be Stars. Price is an Ace...so he's "first division starter"...a Star...top 10/15 at this position. That's nothing to take lightly. With Davis, is this Barry Zito part two though? What was Zito's ailment when the A's traded him? Only salary considerations? He was 28...had a Cy Young. He didn't have a winning season until he was 34. That's 6 years later. But he was better in his last year (4.4 WAR, 116 ERA+) than Price (2.8 WAR, 114 ERA+). The value the Rays will want... Wil Myers was the #4 prospect in the game...Montgomery was #31 (2012)...Odorizzo was #43...the Rays got that (3 top 50 Prospects) for Shields and a 5th/6th starter (Davis).. So they're likely coming off a high expectation, even though they absolutely fleeced the Royals. Buxton is better than Myers. Sano is better than Myers. Price is better than Shields. If I didn't think Buxton or Sano were going to be monsters...I'd sell on the high prospect rating. But I do think they'll be monsters. Did anyone have any doubt Joe Mauer was going to be a HOF level player? Consensus #1 overall prospect according to every publication (mid 2013 or later rated). Buxton is that guy. And then, Sano, well, I haven't seen Sano ranked lower than #6. (Baseball America, Prospectus, Keith Law, MLB.com, John Sickels, Prospect Digest, etc). Anyone feel Price will be HOF level any more than two seasons (+5 WAR, e.g. his 2010 and 2012) going forward, much less the rest of his career (50 WAR, he's at 18.6 right now), from here on out?

I agree. The thinking is a reliever only pitches to a batter once...and usually only 3-6 hitters. So, one, he can throw a little harder (less time in that plane) and, two, the hitter doesn't get to see that pitch a 2nd time through.

I've heard the 'height' factor plays into matchups and the 'plane' on which they pitch. The mound height was lowered...and so today the plane is more favorable to batters than previous to 1968. Michael Wacha has only 2 pitches, a fastball and a changeup. Throws a curve on occasion but something like 8% of the time (1 in 12 pitches). He's successful because he's 6'6" and has a overhand-3/4 (high release point) and the hittable (flat) plane that ball goes through for the hitter is very short. Makes him very difficult to hit. So the theory is a guy who's under 6 feet (and a lower throwing angle) throws a ball that's in the 'hittable plane' area much longer. I haven't seen Berrios pitch myself. So I can't say. I know that's why many scouts and website pundits favor Felix Jorge over Berrios.

Good thoughts Old Goat. I know I'd have a good deal of patience for him. To the extent, 5-7 starts he just can't get it done. Johan, can you pitch 2 innings in the bullpen. And if not. So be it. Probably just thankful for those amazing years we had. He should have had 3 Cy Youngs...advanced metrics weren't available soon enough for him. Also, on advanced metrics, would Puckett have won the MVP in 1988 or in 1992. He actually had better WAR than Canseco ('88) and Eckersley ('92) both years.

Jayson Stark does some math on the Yankee's budget, if they want to stay under $189M. 1. Does A-Rod get suspended for 2014? 2. Is the staying under $189M threshold just PR? 3. Who wins the Tanaka Sweepstakes? Stark highlights some teams who have all the bullets in their guns so to speak: That is, with the new Posting rules: If you put up $20M you can negotiate. This his far better for small to mid market teams as well as in the best interests of the player (Tanaka in this case). As he can more freely choose where he'd like to play. IT also put the money the player gets as counting more towards the luxury tax vs exclusive contract negotiations for one team who put $100M or so towards the player. So this comes into play even more so with the Yankees impending self imposed luxury tax being their threshold. Wish the Twins had that Japanese SS/2B from a few years back or I should say I wish he had panned out. The flip side is the Twins are actually one of the most aggressive teams for Eastern players in their minors and international signings. Who knows...but it seems the floodgate is more open to lower and mid-market teams.

Nice list. Slight edit. Sano had 35 HR, not 30 And I'd have Berrios lower...

I'm just glad the Yankees are adept at signing 30+ something year olds to megadeals. It helps keep things honest for the rest of the league. Imagine if they were actually good at developing talent and had discretionary and fiscal responsibility in their cap moves... Mark Teixeira, $24.6 for 3 more years CC Sabathia, $23M for 4 more years Alex Rodriguez, $26M for 4 more years Vernon Wells, $23M https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dHlNa3NEdk5laU5raUVXX0FSQ2ZQV0E&output=html Now McCann at $17M per and Ellsbury at $22M per. Didn't Derek Jeter get another $10-12M extension? Any time they can get stuck/locked into big contracts for long periods of time is great. Provides little flexibility if injuries/etc.

I tend to agree with Seabiscuit. Votto is hitting. Fielder, the guy hasn't missed a game. Detroit is tougher on LHB. I think he'll do fine in Texas. He's never been injured in any form. Pujols had foot surgery, oblique issues, and shoulder issues. He tried to play through them. He had the surgery. I don't think he's done. I think he can hit til he's 37/38 at .300 30 100 level. I can be wrong of course. I just don't see his skills diminishing that much when healthy. He's too disciplined/hard worker to not. I would agree with the rest of your list though. Maybe Verlander, like Clemens sans the steroids, will have a 2nd wing after 30 to his career.

Wish I had the beat Writer's link that said, Orioles never have shopped JJ Hardy and when the Cardinals called, they said, he's not available. Is Aaron Hicks doing anything this Winter? Dominican League? I have hope for Hicks as a serviceable 2nd division regular and would play RF until the Twins would get a 1st division regular type of talent comes along or until/if Sano has to play OF (rocket for an arm, voted best arm at each level he's been at, not to mention that 80 grade power). I just don't know how he's going to get everything back together between how he ended at AAA last year to Spring Training. As one guy noted earlier, our offense is atrocious. As bad as our pitching was, our offense may have been as equally bad. And we struck out 3rd most in MLB HISTORY. Sano will likely be given every opportunity to have the 3B job out of Spring training. If he kills it, he opens up with the big league club. If not, AA or AAA and once he shows plate discipline and hits .280 or higher, he'll be called up. I can't imagine a scenario where he isn't the every day 3B by end of July. Buxton...if by July 2014 he's hitting .320+ and his strikeout rate is under 20% and his walk rate is still at that 12-15% at AA...he'll be called up too. And when he's called up, he'll be starting every day. I think Meyer will be a regular by Mid July as well. Whether he starts the season with the big club or not, I don't know. Don't sign Pelfrey, not even for $3M per. I would like the Twins to find some more hitters who make contact. Things just happen when you put the ball in play. If you can't slug 30 HR or more, you can't be striking out 100+ times a year. The ONLY scenario I can see where you are not slugging 30+ HR and striking out 100+ a year is you're a GG at your position with .280 and 15+ HR. Thoughts on Polanco, does he start AA? AAA? Santana? How long before either is given a shot at Florimon's job?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/rockies-to-sign-justin-morneau.html?utm_source=dlvr.it Thoughts?