twinsfan34

Radcliffe...did say on Nishi...in the Punto comparison..."we hope he can hit..." But this Vielma...as of now, definitely will have to come a long ways offensively to even be Florimon 2.0. Still, a nice find - I had no idea who this kid was/is. http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/1408

Interesting take on things... I suppose outside many of the top 2, there's not much of a difference in terms of ability/ceiling and likeliness to cash on that ability/ceiling. The three #2 starters is interesting. To kind of go with the idea of ranking and actually turning into something I found an article I I read recently on some research on Baseball America's top 100 prospect lists. Which can be found here. What I really liked was how the top 20 position player prospects had at least 50% success rate (1.5-2.5 WAR over first 6 cost controlled years) and 30-44% of those players had an average WAR of 2.5+. Some of that includes slower starts and only partial years. So my application is that Buxton and Sano are the "top 20". Players in the top 20-40 percent had 30% 'success' rate (1.5-2.5 WAR average) and around 20% of 2.5+ WAR average. So a big drop off. Thus, wondering if Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, or any other prospects would fall into that top tier bucket (top 20 prospects).

Holy Cow that's good news!!

Wow...opened this window at 9am...didn't get back to it til now...posted...after wards...well, well, I guess Thrylos and I feel exactly the same about this guy. 2 years, and #20.

I like this guy. Think he's got a solid chance of making the big club, and perhaps, quicker than others due to the reliever role. I'd want to say he'd be a "top 20" prospect - if I was pressed to make a list.

Hilarious. Well said Goat. Well said.

It's a retarded amount of money. It's not due to ticket prices, directly. I forget who wrote a great article on why ticket prices have gone up. Maybe it was Nate Silver or Jonah Keri. If anyone has some articles, research, insight on that...I'd love a gander. But yea, this is a retarded lump of money, but I think the Dodgers got the better deal. A long term contract at 25. Compare that to what these other jokers at 29/30 are getting. Look at Verlander even, his contract, very similar, was at age 30, not 25. Also, what does Tanaka get now, who also happens to be at age 25. (?)

Peter Gammons reports on Gammons Daily that Stephen Drew (via his agent, Scott Boars) is willing to play other positions (utility) as to secure a contract. I don't know if this is to secure a more desirable contract or just secure a contract in general. More likely the former. As Gammons sites the Yankees were interested last year, but Drew was not interested in playing another position. Stephen Drew's range factor (Putouts + assists/9 or g; which is somewhat pitching dependent) has been below the league average for his career. At 30, going to be 31 for the 2014 season, and the ankle injury, perhaps it's a league wide held belief that his range will only continue on a downward trend, perhaps more acutely than age 33...age 34.

Double like.

1. Which model are you using? Can I see it. This isn't me debating this. But please SHOW me the model, versus telling me what the model says. I was a research Scientist for 5 years in instrumental chemistry, I then taught AP Calculus (show me your proof!), and now I'm in analytics. I care very little for conclusions without statistical models to verify. It's no offense meant, but don't 'tell' me, 'show' me and be prepared for 30 "why" questions. And 'have you considered...' comments. 2. Also, what are you defining as 'success'... for Florimon, if you are at all defining success for him. 3. How accurate have these models you've been using correct? Do you go back to the Zips, CAIRO, Bill James, etc or whatever you're using to see if they're successful? To what degree? Maybe run a confidence interval on them for standard error? Some run higher on the projections, some run lower. Is your projection system (or the one you use), historically high or low? I know it's not exact - or you'd be making money left and right and wouldn't be here. Forget Nate Silver...but which is it? Have you taken account for this into the projections? I guess the one you may be referencing is an age one...is it changing at all year to year? Humans are maturing at different ages...body sizes are different, e.g. WW2 average American male at age 18 was 5'7'' 145 lbs. Now it's close to 5'10'' and 178 lbs. It's fine to live and die on something, but say what it says, but don't argue for it as Bible truth without acknowledging all projection systems are flawed at best. The projections say...." " If you have a confidence of 95% (2 standard deviations) on that projection, well then it's something you got a 19/20 shot of happening. I'll take it, even with that 1 occurrence landing outside the expected value. One guy was getting attacked by personal agendas in 2 different forums. And he wasn't wrong in either case. A lot of this is grey, not black and white. Will you put a year's worth of beer consumption on your projection model for Florimon for next year? And I get any instance where he doesn't exactly meet that? what about 2 SD's within that number? Btw, I can drink a keg-ton of beer. I have more alcohol dehydrogenase in my system than mitochondria...and it's not even close. I like your posts, you're [brock] one of my favorite contributors. You seem to have a good sense of numbers and baseball. But there are late bloomers. Michael Cuddyer was 25 before he really became a regular in MLB. He won a batting title at age 34, hitting .331. Who could have predicted that? Not me. Not in a million years. Which projection system had Cuddyer hitting even .300 in his age 34 season? He hit .311 on the road btw. In 2006, he hit .302 at home (the Dome) but otherwise, he'd never hit .300 at any home/away split. Pretty crazy. The stars aligned I guess? Age projections are about 60% correct? That is, about 3 in 5 guys fall in line with those curves. Others are more linear or more exponential. What do those age projections do to Stephen Drew? For his next 3 years? What's the WAR/$ ratio of ROI for Drew vs. Florimon?

The hypothesis, can Florimon improve? Not by how much, but can he improve. If he hits .222 he improves over last year. 2nd, Gagne, the hypothesis, similar AVG/OBP/SLG, position and team. Can you find someone more similar? I don't seem to be getting what questions you are stating. For the subjective: I also said 'subjective' in my post - what part of subjective are you not getting? -- Bill James talks a lot on the minor league projections and how removing various biases can really make them logical. You read his yearly abstracts from '84, '85 you really start to see him lay them out. His classic example is Tony Fernandez vs Dick Schofield. I'm actually in the major that believes Major league statistics correlate better than MiLB to future performance of major league peformance. I'm in the extreme majority. Fangraphs isn't using MiLB data for Mike Trout's projections for the 2014 season or anyone else with significant MLB experience. Neither is Baseball Prospectus or the Baseball Analyst. Zips, CAIRO, Bill James, etc. They all use MLB stats (if available) to project MLB stats, that's almost exclusively too. Again, if MLB data is available.

I would also encourage running a confidence interval (95%)/standard error to see if they're within range of each other statistically. You'll find you're likely splitting hairs.

Not at bats to be statistically relevant? 2900 PA's vs 2200 PA's isn't similar enough for you? 352 to 606. How much better was Gagne's next 4 months of baseball? Here's the game logs for 1986....have at it. He hit pretty poorly in April and May. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=gagnegr01&t=b&year=1986 Splits... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=gagnegr01&year=1986&t=b You'd have to go about 2 weeks into Aug. You'll find Gagne near .240 AVG... But again, the LG BA was 20 pts higher as a whole you want to take a little guess at how much higher it was at the dome? Do a weighted average to Gagne's stats...

Do you have some sort of statistic (medical records) to the physical age of Gagne's body versus Florimon's at 26 that would suggest they are different, other than the count of revolutions of the earth around the sun since they emerged from the whom? Everybody ages differently. Natural age and birth age have been shown to vary greatly. I personally find the MLB time to be more significant and projectionable.

For the subjective: It's too early to give up on Florimon. He can get better. And I believe he will be better than he was last year. To someone with more validity than myself: Fangraphs I don't have a Jamesian-esque batting performance projection system, a BPPS if you will, (yet), that I trust. So I'll borrow one: Steamer and Oliver (Fangraphs) both predict an increase in AVG and OBP. It's slight, but it's an improvement. (back to the subjective) I actually expect more of an improvement than what they have. Sorry to lump all these expectation on you Pedro, but it appears the Twins FO also is expecting you to do better. Either that, or they think Barlett is going to go 2009 on the world again. On Staying Topic: I didn't really sense the 'beef' other than to asking for someone to consider other statistics, instead of a blind blanketing statement. It's also asking to not repeat behavior here. Which if asked, one should do their best to comply. They also gave context. Maybe it should be a PM, but it shouldn't be discouraged. But still felt Florimon and the context of the discussion was trying to be redirected to Florimon versus averting to historical tendencies. Back to factual and historically relevant information: Also, Greg Gagne's 1985 (.225/.279/.317) would compare very well to Pedro Florimon's 2013 (.221/.281/.330). You'd actually be hard pressed to find a similar MLB experience, position, and AVG/OBP/SLG combo anywhere as close as Gagne/Florimon. Gagne played in a more offensive LG and park in 1985 as well. The minors (AAA), Gagne also played in a more offensive IL with similar numbers. I happened to like Greg Gagne, and we won 2 World Series ('87 & '91) with him as our SS. So at a similar stage, Florimon is ever so slightly better offensively and better defensively if you consider (dWAR, Fld%, or RF) to be of any significance in assessing a player's defensive abilities.

Birdwatcher, Good to add context. Some things may sound 'bad' but in context aren't so bad, the guy who only gets it 'right' 3 out of 10 times doesn't sound so good, unless you say he's a MLB hitter. I tend to be a little more scrupulous when it comes to college hitters. There's a lot more statistics available and games to go off of. If a major college hitter (position player) can't absolutely rake it, .380 avg, or mash it, 14<x AB/HR ratio, and have a at least 1.2 BB/SO ratio, I wouldn't draft him in the top 10 rounds - unless I'd have multiple scouts telling me, "this guy can hit MLB pitching", I'd try my go at pitching or high school players. The Levi Michael's, Tyler Grimes', Adam Bryant's, Lance Ray's, Tobias Streich's, Nick Romero's, Whit Robbins', Garrett Olson's, and the Steven Tolleson's of the world, I feel, can be avoided. That is, sure, take a flyer on these guys after round 10. **I do need to try to find some players who don't meet my criteria, who did well. Brian Dozier, had a very low K rate, met the 1.2 BB/K rate...although didn't quite rake it , hit .355. He's just outside the cut. Ironically, it's his power that's shown in MLB. Adam Bret Walker, wouldn't make the cut. Power was 15.7 AB/HR, hit .359 though, and his BB/K rate was near .5-ish. Nate Roberts is just outside the cut, although, his stats are not at a major college. 1.09 BB/K, .372 avg, 17.14 AB/HR. He could be a hitter in MLB. Led the AFL in hitting in 2012, was injured in 2013. I haven't accumulated enough data points to optimize what the best combo of those 3 would be just yet.

As Rikker49 said, my thoughts was Radke played in the dome. Maybe some splits (and enough data) to get his EP home and away. The other thought....WAR sure loves Brad Radke, but doesn't care so much for Ricky Nolasco. Your EP formula, here and here...I almost think it accounts too heavily for BB factor. It's denominator has both a squared and a multiple factor... = 9(K^2)/(BB^2+BB*H) I, personally, would weigh hits allowed greater than BB. Hits can move baserunners an extra base as well as the added element of extra bases on errors that BB's do not. A little application to other seasons...at a quick glance. 2013 Clayton Kershaw yields 42.89 or "Ace" 2010 Hernandez CY year yields 26.3 or "#1/#2 starter" 1981 Nolan Ryan (195 ERA+, .188 BAA, .216 SLG%) yields 15.62 or borderline "#3/#4 starter" Fernando Venuzeula (won the CY that year) yields 23.71 or a "#2/#3 starter" Nolasco's 2009 (age 26)...he just couldn't strand baserunners relative to other years...and was also giving up a higher slg%. I'd like to see a weighted % of stranded baserunners with a weighted WHIP. To me, an "Ace" doesn't allow runs. He can get strikeouts when needed or pitch to a ground ball. ERA is kinda the raw version of this, but a weighted % baserunners stranded over the WHIP would probably give a better indicator. The other would be "ERA under a save situation sans the inning requirement" that is, ERA allowed while game is less than 3 runs difference, 2 runs difference, and 1 run difference. I'd then weight them for an adjusted ace factor. The metric would be like this wAce+.

It's early. I'll say it again, it's early. Baseball America's and MLB.com's "top 100" lists change a lot as players get another year in front of scouts. But, at this point...if the draft was today. Carlos Rodon is #1...then who knows. I'm not a big fan of Hoffman or Beede yet. Still have control/command issues of the pitches they have, much less to develop another one, as needed for MLB. I like Trea Turner. I also like Aaron Nola (LSU) pitcher and Sean Newcomb (LHP) from Hartford. Then I'd look at Kyle Schwarber (C/1B) of Indiana. The Twins drafted Dustin DeMuth (8th RD) last year out of Indiana, curious if they'd try to go after him again, although, likely at a higher pick this year. From the high school scene, I'm very curious about how Tyler Kolek (Texas), Touki Toussant (FL), Michael Gettys (GA), and Braxton Davidson (NC) will develop. Gettys, is another GA OF athletic type in the mold of Buxton. Meadows, and Frazier. Nola, to me is the closest to MLB, could easily pull a "Wacha" in my mind. Or Ben McDonald or Dylan Bundy and be in the pros by the end of 2014 or by midseason 2015 if the team wants him on the big club. IMO< he's very likely to hit his ceiling, and equally as likely to land at "Brad Radke" level. If I had to draft today, I'd hope for Nola, Newcomb, Turner, or Kolek. And probably in that order.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha

1. What kind of value will Garza bring a team? (WAR, Wins, whatever # you prefer) 2. Will he outperform Nolasco in 2014? 3. Thought this article from Fangraphs was an interesting look at Garza.

You would think, they'd like to find out as soon as possible for this. If he needs the surgery, have it immediately, maybe get some action in July, Aug, or Sept for him so the entire year isn't lost. Hate thinking about this.

Who's the 5 most successful GMs since 1980 when you consider, trades (good and bad), MLB draft (Rule 4 and Rule 5), W-L record, and playoff appearances where teams are actually a byproduct of that GM. e.g. Beane's first 3 years as GM (Giambi, Tejada, etc majority of team WAR are not his players) don't count towards that success, come from the previous GM...want to take a stab in the dark? Everyone has their own rating system, so margin for error of course. But definitely some objective metrics that clearly can't be denied. Trades are decided by WAR gained versus lost. Carlos Gonzalez and Matt Holiday are killing Beane in this dept as they continue to provide lost value on his Michael Taylor return.

According to BR, Morris was the highest paid pitcher in 1991. [TABLE=class: wide_table] [TD=colspan: 3]Salary s c a p y [/TD] [TR=class: bold_text] [TD=align: right]1.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Strawberry (LAD)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,800,000[/TD] [/TR] [TD=align: right]2.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Carter (TOR)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,791,667[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Mitchell (SFG)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left]Clark (SFG)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Morris (MIN)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,700,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Davis (KCR)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,625,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Davis (CIN)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,600,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.[/TD] [TD=align: left]McGee (SFG)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,562,500[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Langston (CAL)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,550,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Raines (CHW)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,500,000[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left]Canseco (OAK)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,500,000[/TD] [/TABLE]

True, they did take less to stay with us. So did Joe Mauer, could have had more to sign with the Yankees, but didn't. Puckett was the highest paid player at one time, which is still the highest paid player, no matter if teams did or did not follow suit, is another story.

[TABLE=class: wide_table] [TD=colspan: 3]Salary s c a p y [/TD] [TR=class: bold_text] [TD=align: right]1.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Strawberry (LAD)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,800,000[/TD] [/TR] [TD=align: right]2.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Carter (TOR)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,791,667[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Mitchell (SFG)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left]Clark (SFG)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,750,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Morris (MIN)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,700,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Davis (KCR)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,625,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Davis (CIN)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,600,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.[/TD] [TD=align: left]McGee (SFG)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,562,500[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Langston (CAL)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,550,000[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.[/TD] [TD=align: left]Raines (CHW)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,500,000[/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left]Canseco (OAK)[/TD] [TD=align: right]$3,500,000[/TD] [/TABLE] He's near the top...better?