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TL

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  1. TL
    Setting aside risk of injury for a moment the questions becomes one of effectiveness. I think you need to keep Romero’s innings low to make sure his arm is not fatigued come Sept/Oct. Really like the idea of piggybacking him with May initially, and then perhaps Santana does the same with Berrios for a while. After the all star break you can reassess and hopefully young and previously injured guys are ready for the stretch run. Interesting question whether that is a better strategy for keeping a guy fresh versus skipping a turn in the rotation now and then.
  2. TL
    I think he’s getting in. The point made by DocBauer on how today’s voters will look at post-concussion performance is a good one and I think his numbers/comparisons plus that enlightenment is going to assure him a spot.
  3. TL
    Blackmon turned in a great 2017 season at the right time it seems, and he was probably worth more to the Rockies than anyone else (shades of Joe Mauer 2009). Dozier is a great player but not of same value to the Twins given their middle infield depth and the young star power on the team. Nor is he likely to be of equal value to other teams given what we have seen in contracts for second baseman recently. I would love to sign him for 3 years at ~$60MM and trade a young middle infielder like Gordon for help at the deadline or in the offseason. That would have more immediate value to the team as well as future value as opposed to letting Dozier walk with just a qualifying offer. At 4 years I may do it but the AAV needs to come down.
  4. TL
    Setting up the team for the next decade may also consist of trading one or more of these guys away to replenish the system.
  5. TL
    Best part is none of the above is all that difficult to imagine! Buxton and Kepler almost have to get off to a better start and hit lefties better respectively. Rosario cutting down on swings outside the zone may be most unlikely but still I think there is a pretty good chance given the trajectory.
  6. TL
    I feel really badly for him and thought he really had a chance to take offf and solidify his future as a major leaguer this year. Now that is on hold and will be tough to get his job back if the Twins are competitive given the fact he cannot play in the post season. Looking ahead to next season though there is a potential silver lining. If Adrianza proves valuable at SS and can hit to a league average OPS then it’s so much easier to move Polanco to 2B if Dozier isn’t resigned. Or gives the team another trade chip (either one of them) if Dozier is signed.
  7. TL
    Good article and I’m also looking forward to seeing Polanco in ‘18 with a hopefully more consistent year at the plate (that is closer to his second half of ‘17 than the first). Regarding defense, I’m wondering if, with the new-found appreciation for launch angles and balls hit in the air, whether the value of defense at SS has declined somewhat. Not suggesting it is equivalent of first base in terms of value, but perhaps having an average or slightly below average defender is not quite the disadvantage that the common wisdom used to tell us. I’ve seen articles playing up the value of OF defense in this era and I’m thinking that must naturally come with a corresponding decrease in value of SS defense.
  8. TL
    This is a strange situation. Based on recent free agent deals for second basemen it feels like he is not going to get what he rightfully thinks he’s worth ($15MM+/year over 4-5 years, and that is even low). I would bet he ends up getting what the Twins would be more than happy to pay but with other, younger and less proven, guys on the team set to cash in soon will his pride cause him to walk? I hope not. Would love to see him back on a 3 year deal and use some of the surplus middle infielders as trade chips at the right time.
  9. TL
    A Drew Butera type is always available for almost nothing if needed. Good to see them with an actual strategy behind the plate at the MLB level (Garver on tough lefties) with potential to make the position a strength.
  10. TL
    Good article. Agree feels like a good set up and with catcher wear and tear it’s nice to have a backup that can be used in a more strategic manner rather than simply “personal catcher” or when the starter needs a day off regardless of the match up.
  11. TL
    To sum up, nobody thinks the Twins got fleeced; everybody would have made the same deal, but he may be more of a 4/5 than a 2/3. There are significant red flags that could indicate we will be disappointed when he is taking up innings that would otherwise be going to a promising youngster. But, we are also putting faith in the Twins new front office and pitching coach that they can tweak something and get him back to above league average. Looking back at comments and articles this offseason it’s clear many thought the Rays would get a much more highly touted return. There are suggestions Kepler would not be out of the question, and this tweet from Berardino, “#Rays remain open to dealing RHP Jake Odorizzi (among others) but have made it clear to potential trade partners they will have to "extend" to get their attention.” Great job Falvine!
  12. TL
    I don’t mean to throw cold water on the hype but Walker and Palka had similar (slightly better?) strikeout rates at A+. If he can bring that down to ~25% as he advances to double and triple A I’ll be more excited. Otherwise, we can probably anticipate the MLB strikeout rate being in the high 30s, which will be problematic.
  13. TL
    While still concerning, that dip in velocity his senior year must be the reason he dropped out of the first round (where all bonuses were > $2MM). A plus curve, 94 MPH fastball, projectable frame and good control at 18 years old seems like a recipe for high first rounder. Twins may have gotten very lucky he dropped - and then executed the strategy perfectly to grab him in round 3 with an over-slot bonus.
  14. TL
    Hughes money is gone, let it go. I can’t imagine a team that hopes to contend would waste a spot on a guy only because they owe him so much money. The money is gone either way. If he is as good an option as another bullpen arm and that other arm can be stashed in Rochester and not accue service time, then fine. But if it means losing Pressly or another guy who has a future beyond ‘18 then he has to be the odd man out.
  15. TL
    It will be expensive, but nothing compared to what it would be after next year if he even has a similar year as ‘17. I agree with bighat that it may be now or never. If we wait and still sign him later it may come at the expense of being able to keep the core together (Kepler, Sano, Berrios, etc) or having dollars to sign free agents. And if it turns out in a few years Royce is not a SS but instead a top CF prospect who is blocked by Buxton, then so much the better as we can trade him for a top starter or whatever we may need at the time.
  16. TL
    Great analysis! It seems that there is a good chance the BABIP was low due to luck. I wonder if the infield fly rate could also be partly due to him making an adjustment and learning to change his launch angle, which could pay off in 2018. I’ve always felt like he would begin to hit lefties, mostly because he did it in the minors (at least the last season in AA). This analysis gives me even more hope he is going to take it to another level this year.
  17. TL
    So many tough calls to make and any of them could go very right or blow up and look foolish. I’m of the opinion you look to win in ‘18 (weaker division, at least wild card there for the taking) while not sacrificing the ‘19 - ‘21 window. In my dreams: 1. Sign Darvish 2. Trade for Archer (must give up Sano in order to keep younger elite prospects) 3. Extend Santana 2 years (pick up ‘19 option and add 2 years for $25MM?) 4. Extend Dozier 3 years ($45MM? Strong ‘18 FA class could depress his value if he hits open market) 5. Sign Frazier to play 3B (3 for $36MM?) 6. Hope Vargas can mash at DH 7. Romero and May to the bullpen That doesn’t seem all that unrealistic. The ‘18 staff would be excellent (those 3 above + Berrios) and all signed through at least ‘21. Guys start coming off the books when we have to (hopefully) pay Buxton and Berrios superstar money, and guys like Lewis and Gonsalves start hitting their stride as young, cheap and high upside replacements in ‘22 and beyond. I’d have to check what payoll would look like to see if that works. If not then can forego either Dozier or Frazier and have Escobar/Gordon fill in.
  18. TL
    “If you love someone, set them free. If they come back they're yours; if they don't they never were.” The Burdi move is a mystery or at least I don’t know how to truly think about whether he ends up being offered back, with the DL rules. But if they plan to add to the 40 man through free agency or trades then instead of designating Bard for assignment isn’t it more likely they retain him long-term by losing him in the rule 5?
  19. TL
    This. Twins will have much more flexibility to make splashy trades with a deep farm system, as well as the increased likelihood that one or two of the guys from a deep system will exceed expectations. The other strategy I’d like to see employed more often is in years where their payroll is on the lower end due to playing a lot of young guys not arb eligible (like the last few years), they use money on a higher priced veteran with an eye toward a deadline trade if they are not in contention. Another path to adding “assets”.
  20. TL
    I’m glad to hear the Twins aren’t looking at their system and thinking they have enough shortstops. They don’t stick that often and can move almost anywhere. After keeping Braves money and adding another $2MM + I guess he wanted to go where he saw the quickest path. Understandable.
  21. TL
    Using the money (at no actual expense) versus not using it is the obviously right decision. Had to look it up to confirm but the money does not roll over so it would have been lost. The only question I have is whether they used it to acquire the right player(s). The Angels just signed Kevin Maitan for $2.2MM of international bonus money after his contract with the Braves was voided due to the international signing scandal. He was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. Who knows if we could have signed him if we threw more $ at him or if we tried, but that would appear on its face to be a better usage of that money than the two we got. Time will tell though and Falvine’s moves thus far in acquiring young talent have been impressive (e.g., 2017 Draft + 2017 Trades).
  22. TL
    This makes you think about the calculus around “readiness” for a major league promotion for defense-first guys. The process seems to largely focus on offense today, assuming the defense will be there when the offense finally comes around. Perhaps some of those guy’s maximum MLB values start earlier. It’s incredible what an elite defense can do for a pitching staff and a team even if not obvious looking at the typical stats. A good defensive catcher and full year of Buxton made a huge difference. Imagine an elite SS to go with this group.
  23. TL
    I gotta say, the grass isn’t always greener. Dozier is putting up 4+ WAR and has turned himself into a dangerous hitter. Who knows if Polanco and Gordon will ever reach that. But the other thing to consider is that we also don’t have a real DH (assuming Sano can stick and 3B or slide to 1B in 2019). If one of Gordon or Polanco can prove to handle short and the other 2B then Dozier becomes a solid option for DH as his defense declines. That said, 3 year extension for me.
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