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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    From the brief videos I've seen, he looks like a reliever. Very high effort delivery.
  2. Jham
    Reality is sometimes painful. Lewis is such a competitor and fun guy to cheer for. He's determined and has the personality and confidence of a star. He's smooth in the field but doesn't have either the softest hands or perfect timing in the field. He also doesn't have a bat that plays in a corner yet. Martin is our 1 or 2 prospect. Noah Miller might be a fast riser. Paddock is hurt and we have no ace.... Would we get more for Correa, Royce, or Martin? Correa's the best player of them and trading him makes us worse, but if we can get the pitcher we need, he needs to be dealt.
  3. Jham
    Not a swing analyst. Not an orthopedic. But a few years back Kurt Suzuki and a handful of MLB players had found success using an ax-handled bat that is supposed to keep your front wrist in a stronger pronated position and help prevent wrist injuries. https://axebat.com/blogs/news/biomechanical-study-of-the-new-axe-handle-baseball-bats-and-comparison-with-standard-round-knob-bats Not sure if players are still using these, but I'd try it. I'm sure the wrist is causing him to not barrel balls. But not barreling up also jars that wrist. I also just get worried with lefties who primarily stroke to the opposite field. It looks sweet, but all that late contact leaves little margin for error. You have less time to get the swing on plane and if you're fooled and out front, you're likely to roll over your wrists. I haven't looked at AK's swing plane, but presumably he's still pretty straight to the ball. My hypothesis is he's chopping at the ball to catch up and then having to roll his wrists if he's out front. I don't know how else he'd generate so many fly balls.
  4. Jham
    Personally, I was never sold on Kiriloff entirely. His numbers didn't suggest he was a candidate for skipping AAA. He missed a year, really almost 2. He adds little defensively. And as corner/1b, I was leery he would be above replacement. His classic swing generated power to all fields. He's a pleasure to watch swing. However, his use of all fields didn't necessarily translate numbers wise. Lefties who pull with power are seeming to have more success on average these days. Of course, many players develop pull power as their careers advance. Jacque Jones and AJ come to mind. The wrist injury may force him into being a punch hitter for awhile. Too bad. He had a ton of promise and already came back after 1 serious upper body injury.
  5. Jham
    This is sooooo annoying. I've never ever cast him as a complete player. I said I was concerned that at 23 he isn't hitting for average or power. Puckett, Arraez, Altuve... All hit for high average. None were walk machines. Guys with great contact skills don't walk much typically. I dunno. It's not like I'm giving up on him.
  6. Jham
    This isn't about SWR. He's promissing, no doubt. I'm encouraged there. Concerned with Martin. Martin is a top 10 first-rounder with college pedigree who appears to be struggling to hit for power or average. I'm concerned despite Arraez' success with similar ops because 1) Arraez is the single hardest player to strike out in all of baseball and has drawn a fair amount of walks while maintaining a high batting average. IE more balanced approach. (Compare with Tortuga). 2) I do not believe Martin's obp is sustainable as he advances because pitchers have better control. Martin's talent and college success gives reason for optimism that further development will occur. But his minor league record is concerning at this point, from a top prospect standpoint.
  7. Jham
    Not gonna lie, the argumentative nature of this site turns me off sometimes. I stopped posting for awhile because of it. The premise of the article is "are you worried about Austin Martin". My answer was "Yes. I'm worried that at 23, he can't hit." It turned into some debate about Arraez who absolutely can hitb for average vs Martin who at this time, hasn't hit for average or power. And about SWR's value in the Berrios deal (like he was even close to Martin on prospect lists). If you want to disagree with me, at least pick on things I actually said. I went on to say that he's a likely big league utility guy. Nothing wrong with that. But he was THE key piece of a major trade AND or no. 1 prospect heading into the season. From that standpoint, I'm worried. It doesn't get easier to hit as you climb levels, and it frequently gets much harder to walk as you gave fewer guys with serious command issues. I feel like I'm being fairly objective. Maybe it's just semantics of what "worried" means? If he's Nick Gordon in 3 years, is that good or bad? Going for him, it's much easier to go from contact to power than the other way around. I haven't seen him play. But I question his contact skills as well given the low averages and high bbs. I'm not giving up on him, I just think some concern is warranted.
  8. Jham
    I love Arraez. I love watching him play, but I think I'd expect more than that for Berrios. Despite being the hardest player to strike out in all of baseball (7% of ab) and hitting .300, he has a negative WAR this year, He's pulling more and higher fly ball pct too. So even Arraez is less Arraez. Arraez never got under .300 in the minors. Martin never over .300. Arraez hits for average. Martin not at all. Not comparable, imo.
  9. Jham
    Of course I'm worried. I'm very worried he can't hit. His .400 obp is driven by walks. MLB pitchers don't walk guys, let alone guys who can't hit for power. He's 23. Not young for a top prospect. Looks like a glove first utility guy at this point. Not a great haul for Machina unless the power comes.
  10. Jham
    He's 25. He won't throw 95mph forever. Will his stuff play at 91?
  11. Jham
    The Twins never really fast track young arms. When they do, they're usually guys that don't care about service time like Dobnak. They usually bring them a step at a time. Which is fine, except some guys have youth and power as their main asset and could benefit from major league coaching and medical staff. I like the move, but wonder what the cost would have been to acquire Gray two plus years ago when he could have helped us then and now. Importantly, the FO seems to have learned that you always look to add and upgrade talent. Contending or not. Otherwise you leave yourself way too much to do in a surprise year, a trade deadline, or off season. If you wait to add until your "window" is open, you usually leave yourself too much to do in a single off season and then make dumb deals or no deals at the trade deadline.
  12. Jham
    I think there's a hidden cost to trading away talent, letting guys walk, and not signing free agents: your roster gets restless and doesn't feel loyal. The Luis Castillo trade away changed the mentality of that core and lead to Terry Ryan retiring. Hunter approached the Twins about an extension. The twins made a big deal about not negotiating contacts in season. Along with their reputation for being cheap... It's not like the Twins made a great case for player loyalty at that time.
  13. Jham
    Not sure what your point is or why you're so defensive. No one is being skewered. So far Houston won the trade hands down. If Alcala would have stuck as a starter we probably win. Trades are gambles. Not a perfect science. The FO has made some great moves and a few questionable ones. This one to me was a head scratcher due to the fact that they made such a big deal about valuing additional time vs half-season rentals. I'm a big fan of doing some rebuilding at the deadline so you have less to do over the winter. But hey, they tried something unconventional and it hasn't quite worked out. I hope they still try.
  14. Jham
    It's not baseless just because you disagree. He has ties to Texas. Fair enough. He also had significant ties to the Twins organization. The money was easily in budget. Those are reasonable bases for an opinion as well. No one knows whether we would have been able to extend him. I would have liked the chance.
  15. Jham
    Wait, suggesting that Presley might have signed the same contract we know he did sign with Houston is pure speculation? There's at least some evidence that he would sign a contract like that. Since he did. I think there's more proof of that than that a playoff series would have played out in the exact same fashion even if the team would have had Presley and perhaps home field advantage, had a different opponent, or been more well-rested. Maybe it would have, but there's no way the organization traded him because they assumed they were going to get swept anyway.
  16. Jham
    But... the whole premise of the discussion is hind sight. The question: "Looking back, who won the trade?" Presley was our best reliever when traded and his curve was treated as one of the most effective pitches in baseball. The Astros just let him throw it. The articles on the development of that pitch are in the archives for this sight. Given what Presley has actually accomplished, it will take much more for the organization to "win" the trade than break even WAR. Also, for the people who believed in Presley when he was traded, it doesn't feel like hind sight. I also never said anything about needing new management. In my mind, they made a big mistake trading Presley. But that was just 1 move.
  17. Jham
    Seriously? All star firemen/closers who hold up in world series pressure are super rare and very valuable.
  18. Jham
    I'm less concerned about the national evaluations than I am about our own organizations ability to evaluate talent. There's a lot of guys they watch for years sometimes since teens... Badoo and Nick Anderson were bad misses. Arraez and Dobnak, on the other hand were fast tracked with success despite few prospect ratings. They seemed to have been right about Hu, and that no contact slugger that went to the Giants as well. So we'll wait and see I think. I've been critical about the organization over valuing it's high picks in particular. There's no doubt Lewis trade value has plummeted.
  19. Jham
    Craziness. The only chance we had to win this trade was lost when Alcala became a reliever. Effective relievers are a dime a dozen. Back up outfielders are nickel for fifty. Celestino-ish players are always available on waivers. He's not an upgrade from Cave let alone Akil Badoo who was always a better hitter. Alcala will never have a single year as effective as Presley's average over his contract and extension. Dominant relievers are rare and valuable. It's funny. The game has become so analytics based, but we lose sight of some of the most fundamental tenets of statistics such as the bell-shaped normalcy curve and standard deviations from the mean. We could have gotten Alcala's and Celestino's equivalents without trading Presley. End of story.
  20. Jham
    Blackburn wasn't really a soft soft tosser. He averaged over 90 mph pretty much every season of his career. He'd sit low 90s and hit 94 with the rarely used 4 seamer.
  21. Jham
    His bat control seems other worldly. But I doubt he can keep it up without developing the power to consistently drive the ball. Which frequently happens at this point in a young career, often as a trade for some average.
  22. Jham
    He's a minor league free agent after this season already?
  23. Jham
    Well this is just terribly exciting news! With the lack of 3rd base prospects in the minors, this sures up depth and improves at the top. I admit I was losing faith. I have to think this moves the needle as far as future FA and trade targets go. The narrative has officially changed. Now let's hope it works out.
  24. Jham
    Sustainable winning isn't a new goal. It's an organizational philosophy that's been the mantra for years. Here's the issue, sustainable winning is hard and probably requires as much luck as winning a World Series. By definition, it requires abandoning the notion of "windows". It certainly means no punting on seasons or fire sales at the deadline. It's great to say that we need to build a rotation from within. Well what if those arms aren't there? Give up and wait? That's not sustainable winning. It's sustainable losing. Dodgers consistently flirt with the luxury tax threshold. Otherwise they probably would be going after the big free agents. The post money ball As have mostly caught a bad division. They're shrewd. The Cardinals play like they're trying to compete every year. They had opportunities to rebuild or hold course and have frequently made the playoffs despite odds saying they should sell or rebuild. The Royals are an awful example of going all in. They fell off because they had their Strasburg, but he died in a car accident. They had a multitude of injuries. Then, and I can't stress this enough, they decided to rebuild instead of retool. Whenever teams intentionally get worse to later get better, they risk setting off a series of chain reactions that gets them further away instead of closer.
  25. Jham
    Good analysis. I'd add a caveat the statement regarding OBP being lightyears more important. I've read articles suggesting that simply putting your best hitter period in that spot and getting them extra at bats over there course of a season is a better strategy for some teams.
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