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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Players and their agents fight for the longest contract they can get once they become free agents. Talk about a bias point of view. Would Cano have preferred a 4 year or even a 7 year deal? How about Pujlos who signed the same 10 year deal. Do you think the Angels would have preferred 5 years to 10. What would Pujlos have gotten paid for the 2nd five years under your scenario. $0 yet his 10 year contract means he will get paid $135M for being under replacement value. We could go on and on. Chris Davis or the Myriad of pitchers who got paid big money for no production. The door swings both ways but apparently you can only see one side. The Dozier example is similarly misguided. There have been several older players getting nice contracts. The difference is Dozier’s performance declined more rapidly. What do you expect should happen? How is it a problem that players are getting paid closer to what they are worth. There are still plenty of deals (like Donaldson) where they player is probably not going to be worth what they get. Front Offices have simply gotten smarter and adjusted to what was a stupid practice. George Springer (31) 6/150 DJ Lemaheiu (32) 6/90 Liam Hendricks (32) 3/54 James McCann (31) 4/40 Justin Turner (36) 2/34 Michael Brantley (34) 2/32 Charlie Morton (37) 1//15 Nelson Cruz (40) 1/13 2020 Stephen Strausburg (31) 7/245 Josh Donaldson (34) 4/92 Hyun Jin Ru (33) 4/80 Yasmani Grandal (31) 4/73 Mike Moustakas (31) 4/64 Dallas Keuchel (32) 3/55 Drew Pomeranz (31) 4/34 Kyle Gibson (32) 3/28 Will Harris (35) 3/24 Tanner Roark ( 33) 2/24
  2. Major League Ready
    This would absolutely crush the small and even medium market teams. The large market teams already have a huge advantage. The result would be at least half of the league, including the Twins, would have no chance. I would have to believe that even the players association understands something this detrimental to the game will substantially reduce revenue. Substantially lower revenue will result in substantially less income for players. What's fair for fans. You know the people that pay for it all. Is two-thirds of the teams getting the scraps fair to fans. Just keep in mind that there is not a professional group on the planet that has faired better financially than MLB players over the past 50 years. The average household would earn $3.17M had the rest of us increased income at the rate of MLB players. Why anyone thinks they have been treated poorly is beyond me. The system should be tweaked. However, the relative degree of parity also needs to be maintained for the health of the game. Most importantly, half of the fans should not get screwed in terms of their teams being able to keep players.
  3. Major League Ready
    So your argument is that a couple of absolute superstars were ready at 19-20 years of age. How about if we look at their performance. You know … the evidence they were ready to play. Tell us how his performance demonstrates he is ready for MLB. Of course, you will ignore this because there is no way to conclude his performance demonstrates he is ready to perform at the highest level. The anecdote that he started a playoff 1 playoff game is a desperate reach to come up with validation when his track record won’t provide it. The Twins started Polanco in 5 games at age 20. Did that mean he was ready for the ML level? Acuna is actually a counterargument to your position. He had an 895 OPS at AAA vs 756 for Kirilloff. Yet, he was sent to AAA. He proved he was ready with an OPS of 940 over 54 games. (almost identical to Rooker) So, if you are advocating Acuna’s path who performed much better than Kirilloff at AA, Kirilloff should go to AAA for a couple months. Sota had an OPS of 1218 at age 19 before they brought him up in 2018. To compare Kirilloff and Soto is ridiculous. Not one person is making a case for him based on performance. It’s all anecdotal. What I really would like to know is how anyone has an informed opinion outside the organization when he has not played competitive BB in a year. The arguments are self-indulgent. How is it not a perfectly acceptable strategy to start him at AAA and allow him to prove he is ready for MLB?
  4. Major League Ready
    Kepler's deal is actually $31.75M. I would bet the FO has seen the OF situation a little differently than TD followers. Instead of trade depth, I think they saw the opportunity to end up with 3 corner OFers that collectively provide better offensive production. Rooker being RH provides the opportunity to rest one of them against tough LH pitching or use Rooker as the DH. This scenario also offers a couple other benefits. The one probably most present in the minds of the FO is that no only could this combination be quite a bit more productive than Rosario/Kepler but the team could also be better off by reallocating the payroll. In other words, Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker + free agent addition with savings >>> Kepler/Rosario. Of course, these players will also be under control for a longer period. We will see what happens with the CBA. The teams future is also likely gets better from whatever Kepler brings in trade.
  5. Major League Ready
    I agree. However, the plan with the highest likelihood of success is not at all clear. Remember when so many here insisted we bring up Berrios because he would be our best pitcher. I remember that chatter with Burdi too. None of us has seen him play for an entire year with the exception of one game. So, for anyone outside the organization to claim to know his readiness is hard to take serious. I have not heard one person make their case based on performance. Kirilloff has an unspectacular stint at AA and he has never played a single inning at AAA. That s not the resume of a player that has proven to be ready. If we are really concerned about every win we would engage a different plan. We have a spot open and fans want to see the highly anticipated prospect. However, Rooker clearly has better Milb credentials. We could even make a case for the best way to start the season would be to platoon Cave and Broxton while waiting a month for Kirilloff is ready.
  6. Major League Ready
    I think the term setting yourself up for disappoint came from baseball fans who are distraught if their team does win the world series. It seems foolhardy to me to get to wound up about an outcome with a 3% chance of being realized. Of course, that assumes all teams have an equal chance and that's not the case. High revenue teams win the WS on a more frequent basis than low revenue teams. I want to watch a good team for a high percentage of the 162 games. Give me good entertainment for 6 months and I am not going to slit my wrists if they don't win it all. There are so many other things with far greater significance to worry about.
  7. Major League Ready
    Arraez does not have a bat that profiles in the OF. He is also quite poor defensively. Rooker had an OPS 150 pts higher last year and he cant be much worse than Arraez in the OF. Obviouly Rooker's sample size was small but its reasonable to expect a 100 point higher OPS from Rooker. Cave would also have a higher OPS and he is a much better defender than Arraez. Broxton would definitely provide better defense. He could potentially be platooned with Cave.
  8. Major League Ready
    Chicago is only go to play 161 games?
  9. Major League Ready
    You have completely changed the topic. If you want to discuss a specific move that might make us more formidable in the playoffs .... great! Whether Kirilloff has earned a spot having never played an inning at AAA and a modest showing at AA is a different topic. Whether forfeiting a years control for 3 weeks of an unproven player is a different topic. Whether 3 weeks of Kirilloff is essential to our success in a different topic.
  10. Major League Ready
    Who here would opt to accept 3 weeks pay fresh out of college instead of an entire years pay 6 years post graduation when its fair to assume you will be more valuable? If this was considered in investment terms the return is 17X assuming you were not more valuable after 6 years experience. Your child may not understand this but people making asset management decisions better.
  11. Major League Ready
    I see it differently. Boras is the reason extending is not a solution to the service time issue. The reasons it does not make sense to start the season with Kirilloff in LF are as stated earlier. I ask again, why is so important to have an unproven rookie in LF for 3 weeks? You said it yourself ... you are not worried about the future. That's really where we differ greatly. You are no different than many fans. Many only care about the present. That's fine as a fan. It's absolute incompetence as a GM. If I offered you 3 weeks pay no or an entire years pay six years from now when your productivity and therefore income is higher which would you take?
  12. Major League Ready
    OK, it's not completely unprecedented but you are talking about an extreme rarity. Then there is the point Drivlikejehu makes which is a crucial point ... The player and his agent must be willing. Luis Robert and Alex Kirilloff are not the same. Additionally, these players are not equivalent cases. They both played at the AAA level and dominated. Also, Robert is an absolute elite athlete who plays a premium position. His defensive value was assured. Jiminez also played at AAA and dominated. He had a 996 OPS. Even if we ignore the likelihood Boras would never allow an extension at this point, these scenarios are most certainly not equivalent scenarios. Why is it so important that a guy who has still not proven himself above A ball be on the opening day roster? Is it really going to matter if the team waits for him to show 1 month of dominance above A+ ball?
  13. Major League Ready
    Yes, Some do. This conversation however is specifically about trading 3 weeks now for a year of an experienced and hopefully accomplished guy in his prime. It's a fanatical position that is exceptionally short-sighted. This particular player has a very high ceiling but has not played an inning of AAA and his performance at AA was certainly not dominant. Electing to exchange a few weeks of an unproven player for a year of an experienced player in his prime is the antithesis of good critical thinking and leadership and this "theory" is not going to change in time. BTW ... We heard the same indignant remarks here about Berrios. Fans assuming to better understand when a player is ready than the staff and leadership working with him every day. Of course, he struggled at first. There was even some of this type of talk about Burdi.
  14. Major League Ready
    I am sure you will. Fans are fanatical. It's not exactly logical for someone to ignore the fact that all of the people that have achieved the highest position in baseball have a different take. Therefore, it's not surprising you would not change your mind regardless of what facts are presented. Lots of fans actually believe they know how to run the team better than the people who have actual credentials.
  15. Major League Ready
    Thanks for this. I am quite happy to be watching a team win 90-100 games. It was not long ago we were watching 90-100 losses. I am even more pleased that it would appear we are positioned to be good for a number of years. They spent $10M-15M more than I expected and I thought they spent it wisely. I guess the fans that don’t recognize revenue enables spending, you might wonder why they didn’t just go buy better players. I also don’t place great predictive value in 2020 results. A lot of very good players struggled. I would still want Christian Yehlich on my team in 2021. The Twins are returning most of the position players who contributed the most in 2019. Plus, they have added Donaldson and Simmons. Before anyone says what about Rosario … He was 11th in WAR among position players in 2019 and replacing him provided $10M in payroll. I guess it would be fair to say we added Simmons with the savings.
  16. Major League Ready
    Apparently you have a superior understanding to all MLB GMs because they definitely follow the practice you suggest is incompetent. I guess we will see if Falvey agrees with you in a couple months.
  17. Major League Ready
    It sounds like you want a backup to the backup on the 26 man roster. I don't think too many teams have 3 legit SSs on their major league roster. I think we are in better shape than most having an elite SS and a former all-star as his back-up along with 2 or 3 guys in the minors that could be brought up if we are plagued with injuries.
  18. Major League Ready
    What about Broxton? Celestino is said to be ready defensively so they could use him if really needed. I also disagree that Kepler is not a suitable back up. He might not be quite as good as a pure CF but they are not going to get a back up with Kepler's bat. Assuming Buxton is not injured right out of the gate, they could use Kepler in CF while auditioning Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker or use it to get ABs for Arraez. Kirilloff is not going to be here opening day. He has not proven to be ready and they have plenty of options. There is not a GM in this league (IMO) who would bring him up in this scenario. To lose a year in his prime for 3 weeks now would be short-sighted to the point of incompetence.
  19. Major League Ready
    If Simmons gets injured they are not going to use one of the AAAA guys. Their 1st move would be to put Polanco back at SS and use Arraez or Blankenhorn at 2B.
  20. Major League Ready
    I agree that Maeda and Cruz are not likely to be as good as they were last year. What about the guys who are likely to be be more productive. Donaldson played very little and Buxton missed what was the equivalent to 1/3 of the season. Sano and Garver were beasts in 2019 but really struggled in the short season. Polanco had a wRC+ of 80. We should definitely expect better in 2021. .
  21. Major League Ready
    I don’t think they want to fill the rotation with another average SP. We don’t know how last year went in terms of developing pitchers. We should have quite a few pitchers that are ready to be auditioned. Plus, any of the guys that are left have their own risks with short-term benefits. The organization is looking at how these decisions impact the next couple of years. Establishing one or two of our prospects this year would be huge for the next 2-3 years. We will need to replace Happ and Pineda. If just one of them is replaced by a pre-arb player, the payroll from Happ and Pineda could be reallocated to one higher profile pitcher that would be more impactful in post season play. We have a similar situation with Lewis. Let’s hope he kills it in the minors the first half and spends the second half of the season at the ML level. If he is successful, Simmons salary could also be reallocated. I have run the numbers for next year. Assuming Cruz is not back and payroll back to 2020 levels, we would have $53M available under this scenario. This includes arbitration estimates which could be a bit higher if Buxton and Berrios have big years. Part of this is as simple is these roster decisions were made based on what fit in the budget. However, the specific players and one year deals with Happ/Simmons had one eye on the future. That future is going to look great if a couple pitching prospects break through this year. So, I am firmly in the camp of giving innings to prospects instead of adding another back of the rotation vet.
  22. Major League Ready
    They have Rooker / Cave and Arraez presently and Kirilloff / Larnach Broxton waiting in the wings. Kepler is perfectly capable of taking over CF short-term. If they need a CF for an extended period of time they would probably call up Celestino.
  23. Major League Ready
    Shane Bieber is going to make a 10th of what Berrios is making. Pujlos will make $165M for the last 6 years to play at below replacement level. Chris Davis will make $92M for the last 4 years of his deal to be well below replacement level and there are many other examples. The system pays them as they become established just like any other profession. Some guys pay their dues and others get paid enormous amounts for sucking big-time.
  24. Major League Ready
    Did you look at career splits or are you just making an assumption? Donaldson, Sano, and Buxton have a negligible difference against RHP. Cruz has been modestly better against LHP. Rooker actually had better numbers against RHP in AA & AAA. We should also not discount that Kirilloff will likely be with the ML club for most of the season. Garver is the one guy who quite a bit better against LHP but what LH catcher would you prefer to have that would be better than Garver against RHP? I think you are leaping to a generalized conclusion without considering the specific players.
  25. Major League Ready
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