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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I would take Miranda next year and the $21.75M to spend elsewhere and it's not remotely close. It would not be close even if we did not have Miranda. I would take Arraez at 3B and the 21.75M next year too.
  2. Major League Ready
    Their actions have been clear since the trade deadline last year. They are focused on long-term success built around homegrown pitching or moves like trading 1 year of a RP (Rodgers) for 3 years of a SP. This should not be surprising given this is what the strategy Cleveland employed with great success. Adding Correa was not about going for it this year. There is an alternative of putting a good product on the field while building a contender. Correa is almost certainly gone next year but he will bring great prospects when they trade him at the deadline. (Two birds / one stone) The off-season resulted in adding Buxton for the next seven years, Paddack for 3 and Pagen for 2. They also shed Donaldson's 21.75M in 2023 and $16M in 2024 or the $8M buyout in 2024. This money can now be used on long-terms assets instead of a player highly likely to decline not to mention we have Miranda ready to replace him. So, the comparison is Donaldson vs Miranda (next year) plus $21.75M spent elsewhere. Of course, they also picked up a couple prospects. This team simply was not positioned to contend and I didn't ever get the impression they were going to attempt to build a true contender this year. That would have been incompetent. We need a couple of the prospects to step up this year but the outlook for 23 and beyond improved greatly this off-season.
  3. Major League Ready
    This relative merit of this deal depends on how much focus is put of 2022 vs 2023 and beyond. IMO, the goal of the front office was to put a decent product on the field in 2022 but they knew any chance at a true contender was a long shot. Plus, developing pitching internally is pretty much a prerequisite to any real shot at sustained success. They have used this as a guide since the start of the off-season and they have been opportunistic. Moving Rodgers and Donaldson is likely not good for 2022. However, they have had a great off-season in terms of 2023 and beyond. They signed Buxton and got Paddack for 3 years and Urshela / Pagen for 2 as well as a decent prospect in Henriquez I like the odds that Getting rid of Donaldson’s 21.75M in 2023 and $8M buyout will turn out to be advantageous. Then there is Carlos Correa. Great if he stays but also one heck of trade chip this summer if that ends up being the option taken. Of course, we also have the #8 pick this summer. We did not improve 2022 in my estimation but this off-season has been very good in terms of improving the future outlook, especially if Paddack reaches anything close to his ceiling.
  4. Major League Ready
    I had a similar thought but I just don't think we are going to see Bundy/Archer used in a typical starting role. We might see them used 3-4 innings per outing which would facilitate doing the same with Winder / Duran and others while they work their way to a more traditional role. Bundy is $4M and Archer's base pay is $2.75M. If they end up paying Archer significantly more, it's very likely it was a good move to bring him on. I just hope Bundy is good enough to trade him or bad enough to cut him.
  5. Major League Ready
    I am hoping Bundy is good enough we can get rid of him at the deadline and make more room for Winder / Balazovic.
  6. Major League Ready
    I was thinking the same thing which is why I would have been ok with the 5th spot being used to stack prospects. My guess is they were excited to see Archer's velo back so they signed him. Here is my hope. If Bundy or Archer suck, cut them. What are the odds of both being good? Point being cutting one or trading one of them by mid-year would create opportunity for the prospects. If we are so fortunate as to have them both rebound, and our other starters remain healthy, trade Bundy or Archer. Obviously, an injury does the same thing so I am hopeful they have ample opportunity to test those young arms. I would love to see Duran stick in the pen and graduate to the rotation next year or even later this year. he still has the highest ceiling of our pitching prospects, IMO.
  7. Major League Ready
    I agree but there are quite a few guys coming off next year. Dylan Bundy and Gary Sanchez are gone. If they pick up Archer's option that mean's he worked out very well. Carlos Correa is almost certainly gone. If Sanó stays it means he was a beast this year. I would think this year is Brent Rooker's last unless he steps up. One of Luis Arraez / Gio Urshela should be traded and Kenta Maeda is also a trade candidate. I bet 7 of those 9 are gone. Then, we also have Rodgers / Duffy and Smith as free agents. Obviously, they will need to replace these RPs but hopefully a couple internal candidates step up which would ease the 40 man burden. I would love to see Miranda take solid hold of 3B by July 1 which is why I say Arraez or Urshela or even both could be traded. That would be ideal. Gordon and Martin should be the bench players. Hopefully Celestino and Larnach grow into a role this year as well. Of course, all of these guys are already on the 40 man. We all know how huge it would be if two of Winder / Balazovic / Sands / Duran fill the Archer / Bundy roles. With a little luck we will be in decent shape where the 40 man is concerned. If all of this came together could we keep Correa? I doubt it but we can hope.
  8. Major League Ready
    I don't think any of these options are so compelling as to warrant exposing anyone. This is not a contending team. They could be a playoff team if everything comes together but adding Smeltzer of Faria is not valuable if everything else clicks. I Just don't see any non-40 man guys making the opening day lineup.
  9. Major League Ready
    If this is an accurate portrayal, what's the point of mortgaging the future to add a #2 or #3? That kind of pitching still has a meager chance of making the playoffs and then making a run. Also, have you noticed that no other team has been able to trade for the pitchers targeted here? Do you supposed all of those interested team's inaction might suggest Oakland has set an absurd price and are willing to wait for the deadline to move them?
  10. Major League Ready
    Veteran status does not make Bundy our #2 even if they were to start him after Gray. There is no way in hell we are going to see a position player pitch with a 28 man roster. When they cut down to 26, there will probably be 3 or 4 guys who can go multiple innings.
  11. Major League Ready
    If they only have 4 starters, they could have 4 guys that are hybrids (2-4 innings) and still have five 1 inning specialists. That model pretty easily gets you to 1460 innings which assumes a 500 road record and 40 extra innings. Two guys are stacked as the 5th starter and the other two as needed. Having those types of guys is a very effective way to avoid over using the BP. Winder might end up the 5th starter where he is typically only asked to go 4. Maybe they use an opener of someone like Jax stacked. I would much rather go with Winder / Jax instead of a mediocre vet.
  12. Major League Ready
    The appropriate measure would be return on equity which is valuation less debt or approximately 1.1B in equity. Return on equity without the growth (just profit) on valuation is around 3%. This makes me wonder if they could really get 1.39B.
  13. Major League Ready
    The Rays success and the way pitchers have been used in the playoffs suggests the Twins and many other teams are not going to have the traditional 5 man rotation. Guys like Jax are going to be stacked or asked to pitch 2-3 innings when someone has a short start. I could see them using Cotton / Smeltzer / Thorpe and even Alcala in this type of role. All of the prospects could also enter the big leagues in a similar role.
  14. Major League Ready
    If they were willing to spend at that level, I would much prefer Urshela plus the nearly $13m difference in salaries from this deal spent on pitching. That’s 2 pretty darn good BP arms or a SP in trade. Urshela had a bad year last year but his wRC+ was almost identical (1 pt higher) than Donaldson in 2019 and 2020. He is also a better defender at this point in their careers and not as much of an injury risk not to mention the likelihood of decline. This only gets worse in 2023 and they have a 16M option for 2024 with an 8M buyout. I will take Urshela, the money to use elsewhere, and the risk mitigation all day long.
  15. Major League Ready
    No doubt GMs all prove themselves along the way to getting the top jobs. Most people don't start down a career path with an MLB team that could eventually lead to a GM job, so it’s fair to say that access to such jobs is extremely limited. It’s also fair to say that the people who could most likely handle the job have achieved similar positions in other industries. Access or getting these jobs is the same everywhere. People are given those jobs with the requisite education, experience, and past performance that indicates they should have said job. How many of the people who always assume incompetence on the part of the FO have actually been responsible for a $300M P&L and/or negotiated 8 & 9 figure contracts in other industries. Andrew Friedman earned a B.S. in management with a concentration in finance at Tulane. He went on to be an analyst with Bear Stearns from 1999–2002, and then was an associate at MidMark Capital, a private equity firm from 2002-04. Do you suppose he knows a little more about asset management than 99% of baseball fans? Before Jeff Lunhow joined the Astros he earned dual degrees from the University of Pennsylvania in economics and engineering. He earned an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He then worked as an engineer, management consultant, and technology entrepreneur. He went on to work for McKinsey and Company, a global management consulting firm, for five years and then founded and served as president and chief operating officer of Archetype Solutions. It would be fair to say others with similar credentials could join a MLB team in the front office and handle the job.
  16. Major League Ready
    I would not use permanent ink to write that lineup. There will be a couple additions.
  17. Major League Ready
    Are there any reports of us flipping Snachez or is this speculation?
  18. Major League Ready
    Calling the Cruz trade a salary dump is extremely simplistic thinking. Trading a rental in a 90+ loss season for a good pitching prospect is a great trade.
  19. Major League Ready
    Donaldson had negative trade value so this can't possibly be true. The trade favored the Yankees because of that negative trade value. However, you are failing to recognize the $20M/AAV saved. Therefore, if they sign Story, it would be fair to say this the two trades netted Garver / Donaldson / Rortvedt for Story / Urshela / Sanchez and Henriquez. If they don't sign Story or something similar it's a different story, pun intended.
  20. Major League Ready
    Yes and I think the twins are willing to go there. All of the other stuff points to them having this in hand. I think they already have a deal or they would not have moved IKF. I don't have any inside information but that's sure the way it looks.
  21. Major League Ready
    There are not many team with the money to sign Story left looking for a SS and Houston would appear unwilling to go to age 35 for a SS. Plus, other teams are looking to move him off of SS. I don't think he is getting a 7 year deal, especially if he wants to remain at SS. 5 years/110M or 6/120M is my guess.
  22. Major League Ready
    IDK what I was thinking on Urshela having 5 years control so that takes some of the shine off that swap. However, I have always said I would trade Donaldson if they could get someone to take most of his salary. Of course, there is no upside if they don't invest the money elsewhere. I would bet we see some additional investment.
  23. Major League Ready
    You noticed I did not even mention Sanchez. He does not matter much in this deal. He gets moved or used as a DH / emergency catcher. I know I am going to be checking the Story rumors every hour!
  24. Major League Ready
    This is not at all confusing if their goal is to add Story and given the uncertainty of their SS prospects that makes sense. With Story, the net of all of this is a huge improvement at SS, plus a front line SP, plus a big defensive improvement at 3B. Plus, when Miranda takes over we have a great utility player or trade asset. I am a Donaldson fan but he had negative trade value and his defense at 3B was definitely fading. He may or may not be more valuable than Urshela this year but getting him off the books for 23 and the $8M buyout in 2024 provides the opportunity for other additions. Urshela has 5 years of control. He had a bad year last year but he produced 3.1 WAR in 2019 and 1.6 WAR in 43 games during the covid year. That equates to 5 WAR had he played 135 games. I like this trade. They will be worse a Catcher but much better at SS and starting pitching. An infield of Kirilloff / Polanco / Story / Urshela looks pretty darn good to me. Add Sonny Gray and this year looks waaay better then it did a week ago. It's also noteworthy that this almost certainly takes the Yankees out of the free agent SS market.
  25. Major League Ready
    They didn't trade Garver for IKF. The traded Garver for IKF and a pitching prospect. Most everyone is looking at this purely from a current year lens. I agree it makes no sense if Henriquez has no value. If the front office believes he has value, and if you look beyond the current year, this is not a strange move at all. This is the exact pattern they followed in Cleveland so I don't find it at all curious they would make this type of trade.
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