Dman

Wondering when the run on high school pitching gets started. I thought Cleveland would go pitcher for sure. They grabbed a catcher slated to go to the Twins instead.

Have to say the rumors had me doubting Jenkins would be the pick. I guess with it being Boras no chance at any under slot savings. I like the pick as matches pretty much everything the Twins look for in a player. He might not be a 70 runner but he has plenty of speed to be effective in right or left. Can’t wait to see how he does to start and next year I hope he looks good enough to start in A ball.

Boston got good value there. Teel was 6 on a fair number of boards and easy top ten. Not sure I love his swing but it worked well this year.

Kind of hoping the Twins double down on high school players. More risk but they seem to have higher potential as impact players. They have a lot of guys at AAA don,t have to have fast movers. Would be nice to build another big wave of young players.

Kind of glad Detroit didn’t, got Langford as I would hate to have to face him all the time. Still I wanted Clark and he looks like a better over all fit for them. The top four were no brainers and in reality probably the top five.

I liked that the Pirates went with Skenes. Tough to pass on Crews but getting a possible generational pitcher could be something that could push them past the first round of the playoffs.

A long hard fall for Teel. I guess he got over hyped or someone is going major over slot.

Miranda looked like an elite bat last year. He had crushed AAA pitching even more than Steer when he was at that level. No one I can remember wanted to trade Miranda instead of Steer at the deadline. Even Correa was against the idea because we all thought Miranda was going to have a special bat. Hindsight is 20/20. This whole offense has fallen off a cliff this year. Has to a be problem with approach IMO and Miranda has been pretty much unplayable all year as well. Still he has a contact bat and he has been successful before I think we just need to give it time and hopefully he comes out an even better player than before.

I think I have done too much reading about this draft as my mind is all over the place with options and ideas about how to handle things at number 5. The Twins draft team has looked at all the players collected all the data so I have to believe their plan is locked in if the top 4 are taken or if someone goes offboard. A couple of things I wonder. How worrisome is the hip impingement issue with Jenkins? The kid looks like a tank and has a plus hit tool and plus power. If he is for real he looks like an all star player to me. Still Gonzalez's profile isn't all that different with 55 hit and power rating along with a strong arm and he has proven statistical performance at a higher level than Jenkins. So I can see what the Twins are thinking there especially if they can get a discount and scoop up either some better players or more top 100 players in a deep draft. Still the back and forth in my mind goes that Jenkins is just in High School his full potential unknown and if he is an elite bat odds are he gets to MLB at a younger age and is a plus defender in right field and probable all star. It feels like Gonzalez has a more limited ceiling to me but maybe I don't\can't see what the Twins see. Maybe he does have all star potential but it doesn't seem as likely as it does with Jenkins. Finally there is high risk with high school players. Jenkins could be at his full potential now, have issues with his hips or not be able to handle pro pitching. His floor is far, far lower than Gonzalez. So again I don't know my brain just kind of hurts thinking about the various scenario's that appear to be in play. If the Twins are unsure on Jenkins I wonder what it is they don't like about Teel as he is slated to go right after Jenkins in a lot of mocks and has really good offense potential in a league where very few teams get much at the catcher position. They wouldn't get the discount they would with Gonzalez but if they don't like Jenkins he seems like the next player up IMO. All I can say is I have no ide what the Twins are gonna do I just hope they find some star players as they need some to compete with the rest of the league.

If they could manage getting Meyer who has star potential I could be OK with that but the numbers don't add up real well unless Gonzalez gives them a a cool 2M discount as Meyer is projected in some mocks to go around pick 8 which is 5.5M range and the sup 1 pick is 2.4 plus 2M is still only 4.4M. That is the high point for him to be taken though. If he were to tumble into the mid teens then that number drops to about 4.4M so I guess it just depends on where the agent thinks the player will go before cutting a deal. If that scenario played out you could argue the Twins got two top 10 players in the draft for their 1st round and 1st round supplemental pick. Considering they were picking at 13 before the lottery that seems like a pretty good outcome. Still not sure I love the ceiling for Gonzalez as a 1st round pick. I guess I have a bias toward slower players going high in the draft. He has above hit/power/arm tools and profiles as an average fielder at short. He is only a 40 runner though. There are a lot of things I think are important to success for hitters at the MLB level and not swinging at pitches out of the zone is a big one. He has more walks than K's so that bodes well. Contact skills would be next because without them you get a guy who K's too much and that makes it hard to be successful as you move up. While not necessary if you have the first two things having some power does round out the profile so if they have that it helps. I think Gonzalez has those things so I can see how he fits their model. I think the only thing I don't like about him is the speed and that he can't be a 5 tool player. Still he has been dropping down boards so I can't be the only one who feels like that as he could go anywhere from pick 10 to late 20's. Still if they pick up Meyer with the savings on Gonzalez that seems like a win to me. I mean they could take Meyer at 5 as he is slated to go anywhere from 6 to the mid 20's. It seems to depend on a teams appetite for risk with Teenage pitchers which seem to be highly volatile. Meyer throws hard and has the slider the Twins love and if the change works should be a pretty fast mover. I like the upside of that pick. Lot's of risk but high reward if it works out. If the Twins pick Gonzalez and miss out on one of the higher end pitchers I guess I like that pick even less but I do trust the Twins scouting department as I always think they are reaching and they end up with good players every year.

Rosario busted out of his slump and then Schobel was the only one not to get on base. Just goes to show sometime they fall sometimes they don't. Raya was looking good until the 3rd where he never got another out. He has really had issue getting through the order a second time. Hopefully he refines those pitches to stay away from barrels and also finds his control. He can get K's just needs to be more consistent with his stuff. Man Noah Miller looks good at short. His throws are just a thing of beauty strong, straight and under control. His bat looked good yesterday as well. If he finds his bat the Twins will have a really good shortstop in the system again. Almost half the top 30 prospects are at High A. It might be time to move some of them up.

I agree he has moved into MLB top 30 for the Twins with the graduation of Lewis and Jullian, Sounds like a velocity spike along with late movement has changed his ceiling. Kind of feels like what happened to Winder but lets hope a little better outcome. Looks like the Twins found some good late risers again. AA is the true test for pitcher's though. Won't know what we have until they get there.

There is just so much talent in the first 50 picks it seems like you just wait for what's there take your pick and it seems like you can't go wrong. There is good talent through the top 100 as well. Every team is going to have a good draft so you don't want to get this one wrong. If you play it right the Twins should get three to four impact players. Really enjoyed you pointing out the rising and falling prospects! Really great work. This will be a great guide for draft day as well.

Fangraphs feels the same way you do as they have Gonzalez rated #35. This is some of what they have to say about him. "His level of statistical performance is rare and Gonzalez will barely be 21 on draft day, but his swing has a huge hole at the top of the zone that I fear will be exploited in pro ball. He hasn't become meaningfully stronger during his time at Ole Miss (in fact, he's regressed a little bit as an athlete) and often needs to wind up his whole body to swing hard, making mechanical concessions in the process. It's a more extreme version of the issues JJ Bleday would eventually be exposed by, and Bleday's SEC performance was also a red herring. There's volatility here. Gonzalez has some premium skills and baseball feel, and he was an exceptional college performer, but he doesn't pass the eye test. He's arguably young enough to improve upon his athleticism and strength as a pro, and I think he needs to do so if he's going to be more than a utilityman." Not saying they are 100% right about him but there are plenty of red flags in his profile. Is this a guy (possible utility player) you take at number 5 overall?. I will say his eye at the plate seems to be something the Twins really value and I guess you can see why given how the MLB team has performed. It is possible they can get him to more power as well but if he can't hit balls at the top of the zone that is going to be a serious problem.

I think you can add Steer to the list he has an .800 OPS for the Reds. Brent Rooker has an 800 OPS and is in the All Star game granted he has fallen like a stone since the beginning of the season still it is success at the MLB level. Jullien looks like a keeper. Larnach still a work in progress but would like to see him for one full healthy season to see what he has. Wallner they haven't really given him his shot yet and CES looks like on of the best bats at AAA. granted that might not translate but he has been exceptional at every level so far. Maybe no super stars in that group although Lewis has a chance to get there if he can stay healthy but he was a high school pick. I think some more college bats are going to get there ( Lee, Schobel Cossetti). Still High school and INTL picks seem to have had the highest upside but also the greatest risk for failure. I will say I agree with you that they lacked super high impact players and tend to cultivate good solid players and agree they need to find some elite players. That is hopefully what you find at pick number 5.

There is a fair bit of buzz going around about the Twins grabbing Gonzalez but he has been dropping in mocks like crazy. I know he is a model darling and started the year as the number 3 pick but Several mocks have him in the lower 20's now. If they want him that bad why not take one of the top 5 and see if they will give them at least a $500,000 discount and use some of the the money from their second round pick to get Gonzalez with the Supplemental 1st round pick with money in the 20's range? (EDIT: Latest mocks have him in the high teens now with some top 10 likely no way to get him with Sup 1st) If he goes to early to pull that off then just use the extra money for other players down the line or grab a comparable player that dropped. Not sure why they have to be so fixated on Gonzalez unless they do feel he is an under appreciated elite bat. If they can't get one of the top five to take a slight discount how about grabbing Teel or Lowder and trying the same thing. I just think Gonzalez might fall far enough to do that. and if not there are lot's good hitters and pitchers in the top 50 picks this year. I like the bat and player but he runs almost as slow as a catcher rated at 40. When picking top 5 shouldn't you try and get players that can hit and run and as close to 5 tool as possible? It just feels a bit empty to go that route but I get that it would be nice to have that extra 1.5M to grab a first round pitcher in the 3rd round. Maybe it all works out well but if they end up passing on a super star high school player they are gonna have a tough time explaining how they messed up at pick number 5. I will say that whatever model they are using it seems to work pretty well for college hitters. last years class of Lee, Schobel, Ross, Ortega, Cossetti and you could argue the older Schuffield all look like quality bats. The year before they drafted CES late and he turned out well too. So they must be dong something right. The thing is they can't seem to find guys with speed which as we have seen this year can be very helpful as well in certain situations. I know so little my opinion likely doesn't matter but I just hope they are gonna find some stars in this deep draft because we need some.

I really like the guy and your article gives me hope that he can turn things around as we really need him back to who he was for this team to be better.

Have to say at the time I didn't really love the Schobel pick. A short player with mainly pull side power and all average tools. Seemed kind of ho hum for a supplemental 2nd round pick. It is early but have to say that pick is looking pretty good right now.. It is past time to move Schobel up. He is tied for 1st in HR's in his league and second in OPS. He managed that after a brutal April and first part of May where his OPS was .600 and I don't think he had a HR. So his collective numbers don't tell you just how hot he has been the last month and a half. He isn't getting any younger as a college bat and being at the top of his league he doesn't have much left to prove IMO. Keep him moving as he might be a special bat. Rosario has been in a deep July slump. Not sure if he lost some of the discipline he had early in the year or maybe dealing with a slight injury? Hopefully he gets the bat going again. Rodriguez also having a tough time and slumping. Need those two young guys to get their mojo back as they could be two difference making bats. Still young so plenty of time but would be nice to see them get going again. I love the AAA box scores but I think the Saints finally ran into some good pitching and it shows that those numbers don't tell the full story. Good pitching has shut down those good bats. Hopefully they can learn from that.

I think we all would love to see him fall to the Twins but hard to see him fall past Washington let alone the Tigers or Texas. All teams crave a fast moving ace type pitcher if he makes it to 5 my head might explode.

Nice post!! I am not as good a writer as you are but that was a great read. Thanks!

I agree with pretty much everything you said but the thing we don't know is the end result. Consensus is all fine and dandy but it doesn't guarantee players work out as expected. Jenkins is the 5th best player in this draft until he isn't. Lot's of players get hyped and don't work out in the end. Jenkins had some questions about a hip impingement issue and questions about a potential swing path issue with handling balls up in the zone that might stop him from becoming an elite player or they might not matter it is hard to say. Still there are questions as there are with every player that will be drafted. So far pretty much every outlet has the same top 5 in various orders so the top 5 consensus hasn't changed in last three to 4 months. It is the power\hit combo that had Jenkins ahead of Clark in most early mocks but that seems to be changing now with Jenkins being slower and more believers that Clark can hit for enough power. I feel pretty confident that Jenkins lines up with what the Twins like in a hitter and his makeup likely seals the deal. The more I look on the draft writeup's the belief is he has an All Star caliber hitting profile. I don't have a problem if they take him but sure would have loved the power righty college bats or a sure thing up the middle center fielder. Hopefully he is a Langford or Crews type bat in a few years time. I still like Teel but catcher is such a tough injury prone position it seems the risk there might be higher than Jenkins and the same with going any pitcher not named Skenes. I think you are right best bet is stick with the top 5. They all seem to be good choices.

I just don't know a ton about Jenkins and for me I need him to be a better version of ERodriguez, Rosario, or JRodriguez as they have good power bats and project to left and right field. Granted his speed and arm might be a bit better than Rosario and JRodriguez and maybe his bat ends up elite hard to say. He doesn't fit a huge need for me and I know that defies BPA. I also feel like he has the least buzz of the top 5. Still a big guy with strike zone control and compact swing that might be elite is the upside you want at number 5. Seems like he has been mentioned everywhere except the number 1 spot and he is consensus top 5. With him having high character I assume the Twins will grab him at number 5 if he is the player that falls. Granted I know the least about him out of the top five but he seems like the least desired of the top 5 options to me. Still I believe most of the Twins superstar players started out of high school and the top players in high school get identified early. He probably is the pick they should make but will have to wait and see how things shake out.

Clark is a perfect fit for the Twins. Gives them an elite defensive center fielder that can come up with the next wave of young hitters. Twins are stocked at AAA with guys to try so they have time to wait on high school players if needed. He might not ever have great power which is dropping him but the Twins can get that from other positions. If he is there at five and they skip on taking him I will be really disappointed as I think he is BPA and fits a system need.

Maybe Larnach and Wallner are not the answer in right field but we won't know for sure until they get a chance. My frustration with Max came from all the ground balls and pop ups to the right side. He just hits it where they are so often and kills rallies it gets hard to watch sometimes. Yeah he still gets his walks and goes on enough of a HR hot streak to even things out some but over time you start to yearn for something more. I think that is where most fans are with him. Yep Larnach and Wallner could be worse but we need to find out and we should have Rosario and Rodriguez close to ready if they get moved up to AA this year. They need something better than average in right and I don't think Max is the answer.

I might be overly pessimistic but if they can get decent returns I would trade whoever I can at the deadline kind of like Cleveland does. This team is hovering around .500 and while the pitching staff has been elite the offense has been so bad they are barely above .500. Even if they manage to win the division this is not a team that is going to beat Tampa or Houston and maybe not even be able to beat out a wild card team that might have a better overall record. My trade conditions would be to sell only if there is value otherwise just leave things as they are. I would only trade Gray if they were sure they are not gong to be able to resign him and they get a top 100 prospect back in return as he is a sure thing to get them a supplemental 1st rounder when he rejects the qualifying offer. If they are not going to extend Maeda then I would do everything I can to get some kind of return by trading him at the deadline. Here is hoping that Kepler and Gallo get hot in July. They need to trade at least one of them and ideally both of them. I would not DFA Kepler if no trade happens as he could still gain value and be a trade asset at the end of the year. Gallo has been good enough to be useful but would look hard to trade him and he may be the one player I would take a sub optimal return on. Solano is having a good year and might be a tough sell as 1st basemen DH ( I think he can still play 2nd) but if he keeps hitting like he has been getting some value back in prospects would be good. Pagan hasn't been bad in low leverage but again if they are not extending him get value while you can. Unless extending, Michael Taylor would be another player I would try and get a return on. He is elite defensively. Has some pop in his bat. Can bunt and could be a huge get for a playoff team that needs extra depth. Get a good return while you can. Celestino can take that spot the rest of the year. I hesitate to include Polanco as when he is healthy he is a pretty elite bat but with Jullien right now and others coming up it feels like they could afford to move him if the price was right. I wouldn't just trade him to trade him though. If it is possible to trade Gordon I would. Castro does everything Gordon does only better. Neither player walks much and they both are streaky hitters but Castro feels like the better fit and they don't need both. Not sure they can find a taker at the deadline for Gordon but maybe they can get something done in the offseason. So yeah pretty much anyone on a one year deal and or players with option years I would try and trade. They won't be able to trade all of those players anyway but they should listen and try to get some value back while they can. This team just doesn't feel like it is going anywhere this year so get rid of what you can, get the young guys some experience for next year and see what you have in Celestino, Larnach, Wallner etc the rest of the year. That is my two cents.