Dman

Yeah Magill has not looked good so far this spring. His WHIP is high and batters appear to be hitting him pretty hard so far this spring. He has a couple of weeks to turn it around but there is a lot of competition for those last spots in the Bullpen so he needs to bring it or he may be the odd man out.

Been extremely impressed with Harper so far. Lot's of movement on his pitches. Would like to see him make the 25 man but since we have him in the minors already he is likely going to have to wait for an injury to get his shot. I have been super surprised at his K rate and WHIP. He is dominating and daring guys to hit his stuff. I know small size so don't get too excited but if he keeps this up the Twins won't be able to keep him down much longer. I always thought Eades would be better in the pen than as a starter and it looks like that is going to be true. He has always had good stuff just seemed to have a hard time controlling it. Consistency start to start and inning to inning were his greatest issues. Looks like he might have put that behind him. He has been impressive for a while now. Hope they give him a long look would like to see if he can keep this up. I don't feel like the hitters have a chance this year. The 25 man is already tight so not likely to take a flyer on a AAAA guy unless we have injuries.

A little surprised that Wade got sent back down. Although I figured Cave would likely prevail I think Wade looked like the better player this spring. I know small sample size etc but I think Wade is a MLB caliber player. Everyone else who got sent down made sense.

Probably not 40 and you need to live with that 30 to 35% K rate. I think Rooker can do that if they need him too and if not at least he has options. Not sure I see room for Austin unless they go with fewer pitchers.

Yeah I was wondering if dealing with the Rangers was more of a way to make sure Granite didn't get claimed by anyone in the division. I think both Detroit and Chicago could use outfield help and Cleveland could use a good 4th outfielder. Best to get a deal outside the division. Granite doesn't have power but great speed can compensate for that as walks and singles can become doubles. I still think he is going to be a good player. Maybe not great but solid. However, I do like Cave and Wade better at this time so really no room for him here.

So I was so worked up over Jeffers that I even wrote to MLB.com about it. I was bit irreverent and uppity so I did not expect a response, but Mr. Mayo was nice enough to answer my query in a very gracious manner. For those interested the exchange is as follows: "Mr. Mayo, Can you change Jeffer’s hit tool to a 50. Given the stats he had last year compared to other players his age having a 45 hit tool seems an egregious mistake. I mean the guy had a 500 OBP in the Appy league. Are there any other players that had a 500 OBP in that league out of college last year? And if there are do they have a 45 hit tool? You guys look goofy giving him a 45. Please fix it so that I can respect your all knowing knowledge again. Thank you. Darren A champion for overlooked Minor leaguers." "Hi Darren – First of all, I want thank you for your obvious passion for the game, and particularly for prospects. It’s fans like you that make my job a lot of fun. Allow me to address your issue a bit, giving you some insight into our process: The grades you see are future grades, not current ones. In other words, it’s what we think the player is going to be at the Major League level. Yes, performance matters at a certain point, but it’s not what a player does at the current moment that matters most. That’s especially true of draftees. We never put that much stock in one summer performance after a guy is drafted. That’s true if it’s a very good debut, like Jeffers’, or if it’s bad. It’s just too small of a sample size to put too much weight into it. In terms of sample size anywhere – I would warn against putting too much stock into small samples anywhere. Otherwise, you would’ve given Mike Trout a 30 hit grade after his big league debut (.220/.281/.390 in 40 games). Jeffers, by the way, played just 28 games in the Appy League. I’ll be watching Jeffers carefully – he’s as high on the list as he is because of his debut (considering he wasn’t even on our Draft 200). If he shows that his hit tool is for real as he plays a full season and beyond, then I’m more than happy to tick it up. But for now, I’m going to make him prove it and go with the 45 grade that came from multiple conversations with scouts and Twins player development folks. Thanks for writing. Jonathan"

You are right stats are only one part of the story. The one knock on Jeffers coming from a smaller school is that he wilted when thrown in more challenging leagues. So maybe they just feel like he will wilt as he moves up. The quibble I have is that supposedly he was drafted as a bat first catcher with some power, I don't know a lot of bat first players that have a 45 hit tool. Players with 45 hit tools typically are great defenders which supposedly Jeffers is not. I also find it ironic that when MLB had Jeffers in the top 30 last year they had him as a 50 hitter. The other strange thing is at number 16 he is the only 45 hitter until number 24 who also happens to be a catcher. So why such a high rating for a bat first catcher that doesn't have great defensive skills? Is he a good hitter or isn't he. I am not sure MLB.com knows. Sure maybe they see something and maybe 45 to 50 doesn't really matter that much but to me given the information I have the numbers don't add up.

Yeah I would put him in front of Jax and Rijo. He has a better K9 and a better WHIP than both of them. I get that he is already 24 and has no real plus pitches except his fastball but his results sure look better to me. When it comes to prospect lists there is no right or wrong answer but there are rankings that make you shake your head.

Thanks for the reply. It just seems dumb to me that Larnach who is essentially the same age and was at the same levels and did about the same as Jeffers gets a 55 hit tool and Jeffers gets a 45. It just makes their grading look weak or meaningless. I know it doesn't matter but their lack of consistency bothers me. Also Keirsey who really had worse stats than Jeffers ends up with 50 hit tool. It just takes their scouting credibility away IMO.

I love that they had the guts to put Michael Helman in the top 30. I can't ever remember an 11th round pick ever making it into the top 30 after there firth year debut. He had an incredible year at Cedar Rapids and if that hit tool is for real the Twins found their diamond in the ruff. Nice to see performance can matter more than draft position. Also nice to see Urbina in the list. Always nice to have guys with speed and hopefully a very good hit tool to go with it. Probably take 6 years to see him but he looks like a guy that could make it.

Normally I don't quibble about prospect grades but today I am. I don't get the 45 grade on Jeffers hit tool. First on draft day MLB.com tells us that Jeffers is a bat first catcher now in this article they are saying he is more Power over hit. OK so a guy with a 500 OBP and more walks than K's in Elizabethton is a 45 got it. Or they just took his Cedar Rapids numbers where he had a 366 OBP and 800 OPS and he has a 45 hit tool? Granted his K rate bumped to 20% but his walk rate was still 10% so I think his Eye at the plate is pretty good based on the numbers. When you combine his numbers from both leagues he has a 444 OBP and 946 OPS. The stats don't seem to back up their analysis. Are they just that bad at this or am I missing something? He should have at least a 50 grade hit tool and personally I think based on the numbers and a little optimism you could give it a 55. Man, this guy just never gets any love. A 500 OBP what does a guy have to do to get a little respect. This is the second time MLB.com has dissed him.

I kind of like the idea of payroll based divisions. It wouldn't be perfect but at least the monetary cap would create a level playing field for the division. It might shake up current team rivalries so might be a hard sell for some fans but it is one way to create fair competition at one level of competition. I don't see complete revenue sharing or a set cap ever happening in baseball. Too much at risk for the wealthy teams to revenue share and too much to lose for players with a specific cap that all teams could reach.

I think the solution is players are going to need to get to FA sooner to be paid what they are truly worth sooner. If more players hit FA in their 25, 26, 27 years then they can market their prime years and talent to the highest bidders sooner. The problem with that approach will be that small markets will have more trouble keeping the best talent on their teams as teams with greater monetary resources will have the advantage to buy the best performing players during their prime years. Everyone knows it doesn't make sense to pay for unproductive years anymore. Players only have so many years to maximize their earning in this sport. So something has to change if the players want salaries to stay high. It is going to be tough to make this work for both sides, but I would start by reducing the service time it takes fro players to reach FA.

LOL I agree. I doubt teams were lining up for a chance to get Hicks. It likely was Murphy or just let him go for nothing. In the end they let him go for nothing. Sorry I take that back they got Moya instead.

Neither just saying they messed up and Aaron needed a fresh start. Obviously in the end they lost big time on that trade. I am just saying I understand why they did it.

Yeah that was a bad trade but you have to remember the context of that trade to truly understand it. The Twins had torn Hicks down so badly that he was ready to quite baseball. His stats were not good and thus he had little trade value at the time. He needed a change, to change teams because there was just to much negativity to overcome in Minnesota. The Yankees were smart enough to realize that building a little confidence could go a long way but he was no sure thing at the time either. A couple more failures and he probably hangs it up. The Yankees took a risk and it paid off for them. Personally I am glad things worked out for Aaron. Wish it would have been with the Twins but he had the talent to make it and he did. He worked hard and now he is set for life. Nice job Aaron.

I would say the risk is in the age of the player and the length of the contract. Lot's of guys decline in their early thirties and or seem to get more serious injuries. Hicks is a good bet for the Yankee's though as he has center fielder speed and also good power so if he loses a step he can still be a good defender in a corner and his bat will still play there as well. Also he has a good eye at the plate so even if he starts making less contact as he ages his OBP will help him continue to be productive. Unless Aaron gets injured I like this deal for the Yankee's as the odds are in their favor to get good bang for the buck. Not sure about your comparison about the money as you could just as easily say Hicks is making Double what Kepler is. Also Kepler is three years younger and the Twins have him through his prime and if things do click he should produce similar numbers as Hicks as Kepler has a good eye, Speed to play center, and home run power. The Twins deal is significantly better IMO.

I am optimistic about this team as well. I think the FO likes what they have in their young core and expect most of the young guys to improve this year. If you are a believer in Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, Berrios, then you aren't spending money to replace them but investing resources to make them successful. I liked most of the moves the FO made this offseason. I liked the potential bounce back Schoop signing. Didn't mind taking a chance on Cron, and really liked the Marwin and Cruz signings. I think all those move strengthened the team. Some feel riskier than others but they all make sense. That being said if the FO truly does believe in this team they really should have tried harder for a front line starter or at least strengthened the pen. I just can't wrap my head around where we are with the pitching staff. Granted we might have the best rotation we have seen in quite some time but if they were going to make moves that seemed like the best place to start. They must have some sort of plan for pitching. But if not then Gonsalves, Littell, Thorpe and Stewert could end up deciding how far we can go this year. I hope they are ready.

Thanks! Yeah I get that. I guess I just misinterpreted what was being said. I guess I don't really care where Austidillo starts whether in AAA or MLB. Someone will get hurt eventually and he or one of the other guys can get called up. Will be interesting to see who they try and sneak through.

Right good point. Someone has to go and my argument was I don't think it should be Austudillo. I guess that still stands. Not sure what Die Hard means then thinking we can keep them all.

Maybe I misunderstood the question but just before Seths quote the thread was referencing who gets bumped off the 40 man. I thought Adrianza was out of options. Perhaps if he had referenced something it would have been more clear but I thought he was essentially saying cut loose Astudillo. Just optioning him to the 40 man doesn't solve the problem unless of course Adrianza does have options then I guess I am just wrong all the way around.

Yeah but Austudillo is the only player that has an elite skill, he doesn't strike out much. He puts the ball in play better than almost anyone in baseball. Also he has decent power (800 OPS) and his BA was pretty darn good last year. Granted all in a small sample size but he played well this winter too. I don't think it is popularity that keeps him around but his skill set. So I'd argue the opposite of what you are. As a baseball decision he seems to be the best option out of all those guys to me. I do agree first and third are really the only two positions he can play reasonably well defensively. Maybe catcher but the Twins don't seem to trust him much there. He is limited defensively but his offense has been really good so far. Find him a spot he can play and I think his ceiling is higher than any of the guys you listed.

I hate to say it but I am a little ho hum about this signing. Don't get me wrong Marwin is a solid and versatile player but he was not the droid I was looking for. Really wanted to see the team solidify the pitching staff but I guess they are happy with what they have. Does this mean that Sano is no longer the starting third baseman? That seems to be the only way this makes sense to me. Things suddenly feel a little crowded in the infield. Polanco, Schoop, Le Tortuga, Marwin are all good with the bat and can play their positions but currently someone needs to move. I guess we are waiting for injuries to thin the crowd. I should be excited heck I wanted the Twins to get this guy after we lost Escobar but after the Schoop signing and Polanco extension, Sano back in better shape, Wanting to see Le Tortuga play I am struggling be as happy as should be about this. This is a good signing. His verstality covers a lot of area's for us. Here's hoping this works out well for the team.

Yeah Fangraphs likes him as I believe they currently have him in the top half of the first round. Hit tool is supposed to be excellent, but even though he might be able to play outfield seems likely he is more of a first baseman. Not much position flexibility so even though he has a plus bat he could fall. Also a bit small for a first baseman but supposedly the power is there. The Twins could have some tough decisions at pick 13.

I never understood the Padres fascination with Hosmer. I guess they had to do something to keep Myers but in hind sight that deal looks bad as well. Its just at the time they signed him they didn't have much for established guys to build around. Never was a huge fan of either of those two players and I think in the end they might have to give away a prospect or two to get rid of those guys down the line but we'll see. That being said I think Macado really helps them. They have third base covered for at least the next five years with Tatis, Meija and Urias close to ready as well as some pitching prospects they have young talent that is not that far away. They also have the ability to trade for good pitching from the depth of their farm. Things could come together faster than some are giving them credit for. Manny only helps them get there faster. Unless he gets injured in some grotesque way he shouldn't be dead weight at the end of his deal either. Personally I think this is a nice jump start for them. They need to get rid of Meyers or Hosmer but other than that they should be in pretty good shape in 2020 and beyond.