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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    So my prediction of a Yankee sweep has been broken. Would be nice to win a series against these guys but we are going to have to play extremely well to do it. Happy they managed to win at least one game given how we find so many ways to lose against this team. Go Twins.
  2. Dman
    Baseball is a bit of chess match for pitcher and hitter. The pitcher wants to get ahead in the count so that they don't have to throw a strike to get strike three. The hitter wants to get ahead so that the pitcher has to throw strikes across the plate. To avoid a pitcher feeling comfortable throwing first pitch strikes you have to swing at first pitch strikes and get hits preferably HR's to keep a pitcher from being too aggressive or you might need to take first pitch strikes that are pitchers pitches and tough to put in play. Both sides are trying to be as unpredictable as possible while achieving the result that benefits them. Personally I think the Twins approach is pretty sound, they simply swing at strikes. They generally don't strike out much relative to the rest of the league and they are unpredictable in their swing patterns especially on first pitch strikes. I think as a pitcher you have to be very careful with first pitch strikes against the Twins. They will swing at strikes in the zone no matter what the count is. I think swinging early in the count realy worked well for this team early in the year but I think that that teams have caught on now and while they are throwing first pitch strikes they are more targeted to a batters weakness. I feel that is somewhat why The Turtle started having a tougher time after being hot to start to the year. He could still hit the ball but by not waiting for a better pitch he made it harder to get hits. I agree long at bats are demoralizing for pitchers and have a tendancy to break pitchers down but it is not easy to have long at bats especially if you are getting good enough contact to put the ball in play. A hitter has to swing at strikes at some point or he is out on strikes. It is a tough game on both sides of the ball. Would I like to Twins hitters be a bit more patient? Yes, yes I would. Would I miss those 1st pitch home runs? Yes, yes I would. I think for the most part I am satisfied with there approach for now.
  3. Dman
    The way I feel about the Twins right now I predict the Yankee's sweep. Sometimes a team just has your number. The Yankees are the Twins Kryptonite. Fair balls called foul, no lead is safe even in the 9th inning. Anyone on their team can knock it our the park at anytime. The Twins can't even get lucky with men in scoring position against lessor teams so I doubt they change that trend against the team that always finds a way to beat us. Here's to hoping the Indians lose a few.
  4. Dman
    I totally agree with the analysis. Have been saying for a while the turtle swings at too many tough pitches. Pitchers throw him junk to start so it is tough for him to get a grooved pitch. He also has been hitting into shifts and seems to have lost the power I thought he had this spring. I still like him and think he makes it. If he can take lessons from Arreaz on plate discipline he too could be a tough out. The Turtles best position is catcher but with Garver playing so well I don't see him getting too much time there. Granted he can play other positions but typically not as well. I really like both of them but Arraez has an amazing feel for hitting. Hopefully teh Turtle gets there too.
  5. Dman
    Nice to see zero walks in Dakota Chalmers line. The 4 K's were nice to see as well. I know he gave up some hits but without the walks it worked out better than normal for him. I hope he can find consistency with his control as he is going to need it to move up. Sands continues to impress. Would really like to see if he can maintain going after hitters in AA. Home run suppression in AA can give a false sense of how good a pitcher is. He has a really nice WHIP and K rate so far I think the Twins might have found a diamond in the rough with Sands.
  6. Dman
    Colina is back with a vengence. Really like the way he attacks hitters. He has a nice K rate and just as important a nice WHIP. That tells me his stuff is tough to hit and with good control he is making the hitters work to get on base. Won't know who he is for sure until AAA where things get tougher for pitchers. He is someone to watch and hope he can continue to improve. While Chalmers has Strike out stuff with the Walks he will never make it. Need to be able to attack to make it. Nibble, nibble bites you in the end. Nice to see the K's and hope the staff can help him gain some control as well. My boy Escobar had a tough night. I wonder if they had him working on a certain pitch or he just didn't have his best stuff. He is young so likely more nights like that to come but I had loved the zeroes he was putting up early. Don't know much Albee but that was a monster night at the plate. Also nice to see Lewis hitting the ball better.
  7. Dman
    Was thinking the Canadian but any high school pitcher would have been nice.
  8. Dman
    Yeah I was thinking they would spend that money on one the High School pitchers they took late. Either they didn't like them that much or $500,000 wasn't enough to get them to sign? System needs more pitching lotto tickets if you ask me but experts said this year was not great for arms so looks like they are taking their shots with hitters that have potential instead of arms as they went over slot for two power hitters with swing and miss in Holland and now Julien. No such deals for any arms this year.
  9. Dman
    Wow I did not see that coming. That is a nice get for the Twins. Yet another power hitter with a bit of swing and miss concerns but he is young. Plenty of time to turn it around. Very happy they got him he has fair bit of upside Fangraphs had him at 88 and MLB at 177. Doesn't run real well, doesn't have a great arm but has an above average power stroke. Currently a lot of swing and miss but he has been hitting really well recently. He is a nice lottery ticket if you ask me and they needed to do something with that left over money anyway.
  10. Dman
    I haven't seen him play every game in left field but I did see the one you saw where he ran in caught the ball and threw home offline and even though he was running in with momentum there did not seem to be much on the throw. When he throws from third he doesn't have the zip most third basemen have. To my eye he doesn't run real fast either. He barely got to that ball in the Outfield granted he was playing deep but even when he runs the bases he doesn't look very fast to me. So his arm and run tool seem a little below average to me which makes him a slight liability in left IMO. I will agree with you that horrendous is an over the top description of his ability. He very well might be OK out in left but you will be giving away some defense when he plays there. Granted with Buxton next to him he probably doesn't have to do much more than stay in front of the balls that come his way. From what I have seen I feel a little scared when he is out there but as you stated he has caught everything that has come his way and I haven't seen any egregious errors so maybe he is OK out there but his best position is second base IMO or at least the infield in general.
  11. Dman
    Looks like Colina is finally all the way back. That is the way he was pitching last year. Nice to see him pitching well again.
  12. Dman
    Nice to see that K rate coming down and walks going up. I was starting to wonder how he was going to make it with mid 30 to 40% K rates. If he can get to a 25 to 30% K rate then there doesn't appear to be any reason he couldn't get started in MLB. While he has always had light tower power it is also nice to see his average near the 300 level. Means he is getting solid contact when he swings but how long can he maintain that .449 average for BABIP? There has to be some regression coming but even if the average falls some the power he has will keep his OPS in a good place. Finally I can breath a sigh of relief as I thought maybe he was going to become a none prospect there for a while.
  13. Dman
    IMO Fangraphs didn't like his physical tools (athleticism, frame). Important predictors for star players to be sure but not always accurate especially for players this young. Twins and MLB site see future growth in the body and a very strong hit tool. From what we have on the MLB site he runs above average and throws above average so its not like he lacks tools he just doesn't appear to have any really standout tools at this point which is what Fangraphs looks for and seems to give extra credit for. Not that any of these write ups mean anything as they are best guesses but I am pretty sure Fangraphs and MLB didn't have Arreaz in their top 40's and it looks like he made it over a lot of guys predicted to have better tools\frame\athleticism etc. The Twins went with a top guy they feel will have an elite hit tool in time. I like the pick and he wouldn't have gone for 2 million plus if other teams didn't think he had a decent future as well. It is not an exact science but the Twins have gotten good players at the top and the bottom of the international system so I'll go with what they think over the experts for IFA.
  14. Dman
    Man, Daiz is money right now. Comes up big at the plate a lot. I am very impressed with the season he is having. He has been very consistent this year which bodes well for future success. I still wonder if he gets dangled at the deadline because he needs to be added this year. He has turned into a very good hitter\player. Rooker is hot, hot, hot right now. He has some absolutely wicked power. If he keeps this up I see lot's of walks in his future. Gordon also has his OPS in the mid 700's and is hitting .285. It looks like rumors of his demise have been premature. Never was a big believer in Dobnak but he always seems to get the job done. I wonder if he has MLB long reliever ability at some point. Sands is the pitcher I have been watching. I love how he attacks hitters. The more he works on his stuff the better he gets. Won't know much until he gets to AA but he looks like he is going to be real good to me. Breek never should have started in the GCL given his performance last year but I guess those lower levels can be a numbers game. It is too early to tell but it looks like the Twins might have found a good one. A fun night full of good MILB performances.
  15. Dman
    Not too much to say as that is a consensus top 5. Wander is the wild card. I am starting to doubt he can stay healthy and if he can't stay healthy he is going to fall. He is not having a great year so far in A ball but he is still young and has really nice tools. Patience is a virtue and a lot of guys I had started to doubt had breakouts this year. Lets hope that happens with Wander real soon. Lewis and Kiriloff are both having down seasons and Graterol is hurt making us question whether he is destined for the pen like many experts predicted. It has been a trying year for teh top of our prospect list but they have the talent and I expect all of them to bounce back given time.
  16. Dman
    Nice to see three young pitchers with front of the rotation stuff so high on this list. They still have a ways to go but they have the traits to continue the climb. Here's to hoping we have wave of pitchers to follow these guys and that none of those guys get traded. Rooker has been outstanding this month. I love the walks he is getting\taking. That should help the K rate by getting better pitches to hit and offsetting the K rate. That seemed to be the only thing standing in his way to be MLB ready. Needs to prove he can be consistent with that approach and if he is able to then it will be hard to keep him down on the farm. That is a really nice 6-10 with 1-5 yet to come.
  17. Dman
    I am a little surprised that fangraphs would put a pretty much strictly singles hitter that doesn't seem to get hard contact and no other above average tools to 6th on the list. That seems out of character for them. They must be believers that he can carry that approach all the way through MLB. Personally I see him dropping off but maybe he is just that good. I guess we'll know soon enough. And Gordon at 35? Have they really given up on him? They don't see much more growth potential there for a 23 year old with a 280 average and 25% K rate at AAA? So that is his ceiling? that is quite a statement?
  18. Dman
    When I look at fangraphs they show them as 12 Arreaz) and 19 (Gordon). Not too much difference. It really depends on how you see how their tools stack up. Neither one has great power. Arraez has the better hit tool by far which is very important but I also think he has a weakness as he likes to hit oppo and that can be taken away. Can he adjust? If yes then he is the clear winner as he can play solid D at second. If not then in the end the hit tools might not be that far apart and Gordon's, Arm, Run, and Fielding should be superior to Arraez. It just depends on how you see their future potential. Technically if things break wrong they both could be utility players. A strong hit tool makes a lot of difference as it is a very important part of what makes a position player valuable and defense at second can be hidden. Gordon is hitting 280 in AAA though so a little improvement and he starts looking pretty good as well.
  19. Dman
    Yeah it is impossible to see "potential" the same as there are just too many variables. As you watch and follow these players you start to form bias's that can skew your view. You can be too optimistic about potential and too pessimistic. No one gets it right all the time but it is fun to look for trends and hope for star players. Also sometime there is not a lot of difference between prospects 10-15. They could be ordered many different ways with no real issue other than preference. The one thing we do share in common is we like all the players we have in the system.
  20. Dman
    Wallner looks to nbe ranked about where Larnach was so this looks like a decent spot for him. We have a pretty tough top 10 to crack right now so putting him in the middle works for me. Arraez appears to have an elite bat but below average tools so will never have elite defense. He looks to be solid at 2nd base but with no real power his bat has to stay hot for him to not end up a utility player. He hits alot of balls away and I think once defenses find his tendancy's hits might get harder to find, will have to wait and see just how good his bat control really is. With such a proven elite hit tool I would have him a few spots higher but it doesn't really matter at this point because he will likely not be eligible for this list in the too distant future. Love where you put Jeffers. He has been a very solid player so far. Good defense, good power, good bat. If he can put a few more points on that OBP I think he moves into the top 10. Those are really nice stats for a catcher in that league. I thought Gordon might grow into some power but he still is pretty rail thin. Happy to see that bat come back. He looked lost in AAA last year. I still think he can be solid SS. Maybe not defensively elite but with that arm and decent speed (he is not a large guy) if he can cut down on the mental errors I think he is good there. He has a nice mix of tools but none appear to be elite. With no power he needs to have very good bat to ball skills. It looks like he might be getting there. I think this is a good spot for him if you are optimistic about his potential if you see a utility player then I would drop him lower. Not sure what to think about Thorpe. He has strike out stuff but also gives up the long ball. Lots of scouts feel his stuff is just average which seems hard to believe when he can get so many K's. It seems they might be correct though as he looks topped out at AAA right now. He needs some kind of refinement to take him to the next level not sure what it is but currently things are not working. Based on current performance I would have him lower than this, but this is about potential and not performance so if you think there is more in the tank this is probably a decent spot for him.
  21. Dman
    I might be in the minority but I wasn't sold on McKay for the number 1 pick. To start with I thought Wright was the safer better pick for the Twins and in the end I was interested in an under slot deal for Gore. McKays velocity scared me and taking a 1st baseman that high didn't seem like a smart move. He had good stuff I just wasn't a believer. I was never on the Green bandwagon either. Felt like an injury risk to me and sure enough TJ already. He still might be very good I just felt it was a risky pick. I never had Lewis on my radar at all for the number one pick. We needed pitching and there was good pitching at the top I thought for sure that we would grab a pitcher. I am not unhappy with Lewis since they got him so far under slot and maybe Enlow is a good consolation prize time will tell. I just didn't think he had a chance to go number 1. Looks like Mckay might have been better than I thought he would be as a pitcher. Hopefully his debut is better than Mr. Wrights.
  22. Dman
    I followed him last year and came away impressed especially because of his age. When they dominate at a young age in any league that typically bodes well. DSL, GCL and E-town stats don't tell us too much because the competition is so variable. Even A ball numbers can be deceiving but guys that consistently perform well in those league still tend to do well as they move up especially when they are young for the level. I am excited about Escobar as well. Just someone to keep an eye on. He is too young to know if he turns out or not but he sure looks good right now. If he continues to dominate I think he will be a fast mover.
  23. Dman
    I thought the same thing I am not completely sure on the fielding metric. In the write up they mention him as an outfielder and he is listed as outfielder\1st base. I agree it is hard to say what position they are referencing. The run grade is similar though and that is typically an important part of outfield defense getting to balls and or cutting them off to prevent extra base hits. Arm is also important for outfield assists\throwing runners out and Raley's arm grades out above both Max and Rosie. So like I said if you believe in these numbers then Raley should be comparable and in some ways better than both Rosario and Kepler in the outfield. Granted bigger guys tend to get slower faster as they age. The reference to Robbie being noted he is no spring chicken anymore at 29 and his speed obviously declined since he was a prospect so again hard to say how Raley's speed will hold up but given the fairly recent scouting reports on MLB.com they don't see him as a liability in right or left field at this time. OK now I see what you mean. I don't know that is a very good question though. Center field defense is a lot different than the corners but I think run grades are just run grades regardless of position. Fielding grades might be different for center though as your running and throwing ability factor in more to your fielding grade for center I would think.
  24. Dman
    I like that the Twins are typically always in on at least one of the top ranked guys but they also have done pretty well with no name guys as well. Here's hoping we grab some good ones this year.
  25. Dman
    Don't know what to think about Blankenhorn. Is this his breakout season? Is this who he is for real now or is there regression on the way? Given his past trouble with contact I am still a little skeptical. I really love what he has done this year. He is becoming what we all thought he could become which is a solid defensive infielder and power bat that can hit for average as well. I really like his athleticism and if the bat is for real he looks good at 2nd or 3rd in MLB to me. I think this is a decent spot for him. I might have him a little lower mainly because last year he was so bad at the plate that I question if he will adjust to AAA or MLB pitching but he could just as easily climb higher if he keeps this up. Urbina has a nice set of tools too early to tell what his hit tool will be like just yet but that will make or break him. Somewhat disappointed with Alcala. He started the season almost unhittable and quickly started regressing. I think we have enough guys that are ready to start at AA and they should put Alcala in the pen as we really could use a guy or two that throw close to triple digits in our MLB pen and he is someone that can do that. I like where he is on the list. If he becomes dominant then he moves up if not then likely starts moving down. Still pretty excited about Baddoo but with him having a lost season this spot seems fair to me. Will have to wait for next year to decide where he really belongs. He has had contact issues in the past so still a ways to go but the fact he could be a power hitting center fielder with a good eye at the plate is pretty darn exciting to me. I am less bullish on Ben than most. He has come a long way with his hit tool but I am still a little skeptical it will be good enough. He is still pretty young yet especially for a catcher. I think given where he is at right now this is a pretty good ranking. If you believe he becomes and is becoming an above average hitter then this is a little low for him.
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