Dman

I kind of hope someone takes Wiel, He is getting older and is completely blocked in our system. Would be nice for him to get a chance on a team with nothing to lose. I think he could be a good bench bat. Hard to say how he will adjust to MLB pitching but I think he has a good chance to be successful. Not worried about losing Jax as we have enough #5 starters in the system with Dobnack, Poppen, Smeltzer and Thorpe and I think they all currently have better stuff than Jax does. Also other younger pitchers will likely pass him as well in Graterol, Duran, Balazovic, Colina, and maybe even Sands and Vallimont. Don't get me wrong I like Jax but we can certainly live without him as well. Never cared for Clays control or command but he is a lefty and we could use some good lefty reliever in the system. He could get taken but I don't trust him to do well in MLB just yet as control becomes very important when facing elite competition. I thought they would protect Rijo and I bet it was a tough call but I can understand it is tough to start that option clock so soon given he is likely two to three years away. I guess they are hoping other teams see it the same way. Given what I have seen he doesn't look ready for MLB, but a team not competing could grab him anyway.

I hope they bring him back and I would try for a two year deal. The further he got from the surgery the better he was pitching. If he ends up our 5th starter I think we are in good shape heading into 2020. I am a little surprised they haven't signed him already.

I think Kyle could have a really good year in 2020 but I also think it was time for a change for both Kyle and the Twins. Glad he landed on his feet. The Rangers should be an improved team next year.

If the Twins truly do spend all the extra money on pitching then I am fine if they let him go. If they end up in the second or third tier for pitchers and don't spend then Cron insurance would be nice. If they do try and shore up third base then I would be fine letting Cron go as well. For me it just depends on what they do before I would want them to just let him walk.

Raley is the only one currently on the 40 man so unless he is traded or starts the year off poorly he will be the first one called up. He has good range in the outfield and average to above average power. He looks like he has the tools to make it but he needs to work on his K rate and up his walk rate if he wants that outfield job for the Twins. The next guy up I think is Larnach as he has good all around hit tools. Good eye at the plate, as his K rate has been really good except in AA and his OBP is very good as well. Has OK power to this point and just seems to have a solid approach all the way around. Next would be Kirillof for me. He has a sweet swing and when on I would place him ahead of Larnach but he doesn't walk much and that can hurt you at the MLB level. If he showed more patience I would put him ahead of Larnach. Last is Rooker but only because this is for an outfield position. If it was for 1st base then I would give Rooker the nod for that position. He has the power to profile there and he should be athletic enough to play 1st base and DH some. That is the order I think they would be chosen to come up but if one of those guys gets hot and the others go cold that could easily change.

I was totally onboard with the Twins making trades in 2018. It wasn’t going to make sense to extend Dozier after the season he had and getting two decent players in Smeltzer and Raley seemed about as good as you could do given his production that year. Lance Lynn wasn’t going to help us and again wasn’t having a great statistical year so getting a look at Tyler Austin and getting Luis Rijo seemed like a better deal than getting nothing. The Zach Duke trade ended up netting us Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello and neither player worked out but Duke was gone at the end of end of the season anyway. Duke was having an OK year and I thought we might be able to do a bit better than what we got but in the end that trade did not move the needle. Getting anything for Rodney especially a high K relief pitcher seemed like a steal IMO. Chalmers still has control problems but the potential is there. I couldn’t take Rodney and all his walks any more. I really liked Escobar but was afraid we might not get him to sign at the end of the year and if he did really want to play for the Twins then I felt we could try and sign him in the offseason anyway. That didn’t work out but we did get a possible mid rotation starter and a potential 4th outfielder for giving up the last few months of his production in a year we were going nowhere anyway and since he didn’t sign with us in the end at least we got something instead of nothing. The Pressly trade was always controversial but I still felt like it was on OK deal. Looking back they really should have pressed for a top 100 prospect in that deal but I think Alcala can still be a middle reliever and Celestino’s floor is a 4th outfielder with great defense. He did manage to hit 10 home runs this year so he might grow into some more power which would give him starter potential. Not a bad haul but given what Houston got it should have been better IMO. While Pressly was controlled for another year he couldn’t help the Twins in 2018 and even though he could have helped us in 2019 we still won the division without him and he wasn’t going to single handedly help us win playoff games. He also was injured so wasn’t available all of 2019 either. The question for me is if the Twins had kept him could they have extended him or would he still have wanted to play closer to his family in Houston? If he was gone anyway I prefer having the prospects if he would have signed I would rather still have him. Do these trades mean this FO is savvy or good at trading? I don’t think we can determine that at least not yet. As others have said they haven’t netted any top 100 prospects in any trades and have given up some prospects with little to show for it at the MLB level. I am happy they made the trades in 2018 as they might have gotten nothing and I am glad many of those players appear worthy of being on the 40 man but until they pan out it is hard to say they moved the needle for the MLB club.

Touche'. They do have three positions that could use better offensive production IMO so you are right that they could have spent that money elsewhere and likely gotten more value. They also could use another top of the rotation starter to complete their team. I think if they can get the pieces they need and their young guys step up they have a chance at the division if not this year then next for sure. They need a little luck this year to do it IMO but injuries can change things in a hurry. I don't think they have the offensive depth that the Twins have but if they get a few more pieces and stay healthy I think they will be right there with us.

I agree with the overpay analysis but the beauty of this move for the White Sox IMO is that even on off days you are getting a good bat and glove at catcher. While the monetary value of the DH is not there keeping both catchers fresh is a clear team advantage throughout the season and since both are pretty good with the bat as well they still give some value back being a DH. That gives the White Sox an advantage in every game then as the catcher spot is never a black hole for the offense. In fact it as asset. If you have the cap space and your pitching is young and cheap then I think a move like this makes a lot of sense even if you have to overpay a bit.

I will agree with you that they over payed for Grandal but I don't think they see him as just a catcher either. I think they will round robin Grandal, McCann and Abreau through the DH spot to keep those guys fresh and hopefully the bats hot. The Sox had 4 guys OPS over 800 and McCann was just under 800 so adding another solid bat makes sense for them. They still need better production in RF, 2nd and possibly center but a couple more acquisitions or if Ready Luis Robert in right and Madrigal at 2nd could give them a pretty good lineup as well. The Sox have a lot of young pitching so getting a guy that can steal strikes makes sense and given the youth they have they also have the payroll room to spend on a catcher. The only issue I see with this move is if he regresses early as a catcher as he would be a pretty expensive DH at that point. The Sox can still get a pitcher or two in FA but they have Rodon coming back Cease and Gioloto are still there and if Kopek returns to form quickly there won't be a lot of room in the rotation anyway. Things have to go right with their young guys for them to make a run but it can happen. The only thing they don't have in their system is catcher as good as Grandal but by overpaying now they are set there. I still think it is a good move for them despite your excellent analysis.

I wonder if they are copying the Twins to some degree. Have two good catchers and keep them fresh so they can perform better when called upon. Seemed to work well for Garver and Castro this year. There's is a bigger monetary investment but they are a young up and coming team so should be able to afford it and having good catchers should help their young pitching staff as well. I generally like the moves Chicago makes and if their young guys pan out for them they are going to have a monster team shortly.

Isn't it a little bit dangerous to leave a guy like that unprotected then? He might be able to hold down a bullpen spot for the year at the MLB level and then they could work him back as a starter. He is young enough and talented enough it looks like. Granted his K 9 isn't that great for his level but it isn't bad either.

He might not be the same pitcher after surgery and he wasn't a sure thing to make it to MLB even after his great 2018. He would be a big gamble for a team to take when they can probably find other pitchers not recovering from injury (less risk). Personally I think he bounces back but hard to say how long it will take.

Totally agree with you. They can't keep that many 4th outfielders on the 40 man as they are likely going to need more room for pitching and another catcher. While l like Lamonte's eye at the plate he doesn't seem to have much power. I think he is the guy to try and trade. I guess we will see what happens but it doesn't make sense to carry all of them especially with Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach not that far away.

While I like Jax he seems to be 5th starter material and with K's being low and other guys that look like they might have higher ceilings not far behind him I can see the Twins taking the risk. It wasn't that long ago that a lot of this board berated the previous FO for hanging onto pitch to contact guys versus stirke out pitchers so I am not gonna complain too much about this one. That being said I feel like his stuff might play up in the pen and he has good control so he could be targeted by a rebuilding team. A little more concerned about Rio. He has some really good secondaries but doesn't seem to have the velocity yet. Pretty young too and likely not able to help a MLB team at all. So hoping he gets passed by. Also wondering about Moran. His WHIP is high so hopefully other teams leave him alone. Wells is a wild card at this point since he is coming off of injury so guessing team will pass on him as well. Only real surprise for me is Celestino. He must be better than I realized. Maybe his defense is just too good to risk losing him to a team using him as 4th outfielder this year. I don't think his bat will play in MLB yet.

I agree I think 5 players is the max and I bet they really would like to only add 3 or 4. IMO they could stand to lose the position players as position players have been taken less frequently than pitchers in past rule V drafts. So if they want to gamble i think that is where they gamble. I think they add Duran, Jax and Blakenhorn. Technically they can probably afford to lose Raley as they have Cave and Wade with Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff probably ready fairly soon anyway. They might want to protect Rio but he is a ways a way. Tough call there for me. I guess we will find out tomorrow.

I think Duran is a lock. Jax is likely. Depends on what the Twins think of Blankenhorn if they decide to add him. Is he gonna have a decent eye and hit or is he going to regress a little? 2nd base is already locked up so he won't have a path there. I know he has played third but I don't believe he played it well. Left field looks crowded as well. Not sure where he fits long term so they might not add him. I know Raley is not in the top 30 and his K rate is a bit high but IMO he is close to major league ready and a pretty versatile player. I think that if they don't add him he will get taken by one of the clubs that will be bottom feeders this year. Whether he can make it at that level or not I don't know but if I were a club likely to be at the bottom he is player that would make sense to try and grab. Nice power, position versatility, decent arm and a good OBP in AAA. Perfect 26th man IMO. Twins might not see it the same way but I would protect him. If they leave Chalmers off he might get taken. His WHIP is bad though and those guys typically don't stick but I wouldn't be surprised if a team took a chance on him. Personally I would not add him but we'll see what happens. Celestino and Macial are too young to help a club this year so I don't see them being added. Celestino might be able to play good enough defense to warrant being taken but a year basically on the bench would not help him and he could end up just being 4th outfielder material so pretty risky for a club to take him IMO. Javier was bad in A ball why would a MLB team want him? If he doesn't improve this year might not even be much of a prospect anymore. I would not add him. That is my two cents. I guess we will know more tomorrow.

While I like Generics sometimes there is just more comfort in going with the name brand. I mean I took generic Advil once and ended up having an allergic reaction so it seems like there can be less risk going with the name brand sometimes. That being said if you have a budget you can get more value for the money going generic and I like your plan for the most part. As noted in my intro I am concerned about injury risk for Ryu. I get that even the most injury free pitcher can get injured at any time but one with a pretty established injury history does give me pause because he can't help the team if he can't pitch. Granted Rocco seems to be in tune with getting players rest when they need it but all I am saying is getting a cheaper guy that might not make it the whole season isn't a good deal unless he plays the whole season. I also am not a huge Boyd fan but then again I am not a great judge of pitching talent but his price is likely to be high and he might end up as 4th or 5th starter which we have plenty of. If he is the real deal then the trade makes sense I just am not sure what kind of pitcher Boyd will end up being. Everything else looks good to me and I am not opposed to your plan I am just a bit more risk averse and possibly less informed than you are.

Ben, Really enjoyed the list. I can always quibble with rankings but I liked where most guys were placed. I can tell that someone knows our system when I see guys like Ober in the top 30 and Vallimont rated higher than most other lists I have seen. Really enjoyed the write ups and felt they were very well done. For me I would actually be interested in who you think the next 20 players are so a top 50 take is what I would like to see as it shows who just missed the top 30 and who the potential up and comers are. Very nice job on the top 30 though and thanks for sharing!

Agreed. I think given his offensive and defensive numbers plus the contract should net top of the rotation pitching IMO. You will have to give up a fair amount of Defensive value in right field with Kirillof, Rooker and Larnach. They all seem better suited to left or 1st base if you ask me. Larnach and Kirillof were projected as possible right fielders as I believe they have the arm to play there but the dropoff defensively from Kepler seems substantial IMO. In left there wouldn't be as much of a dropoff and possibly an improvement.

It doesn't make a ton of sense to trade Kepler to me. He is on a team friendly contract, has a better OBP and OPS than Rosario, and he is a top of the line defender in right field. It would take a Chris Sale type pitcher and then some to pry him a way IMO. The other thing is we don't really have a great replacement for what Kepler does. I mean you could throw Cave over there but long term I am not sure we have a good replacement for Kepler in the system. At least not from a defensive standpoint. He is also a nice backup for Buxton as he graded pretty well in center when he played there. I guess if the right deal came along he could be traded but it would have to be for some very good assets IMO.

Way too young to be gone already. Just doesn't seem possible to die of natural causes at 23. RIP Ryan.

I think it has to do with his ability to be aggressive in big moments and make something happen, whether that be running through a stop sign to score, Making an incredible throw to home that won a game, or coming up with big home runs. A risk taker by nature Rosario is not afraid to fail, in fact he is prone to be even more aggressive when something needs to happen. That being said it also backfires on him as well. Running through stop signs to create outs, missing the cut off man allowing runners to move up, and striking out by swinging at balls out of the zone in big moments when getting on base via walk would have helped hurt the team as well. I guess it depends on what you want to see. The player that is clutch in some situations or the player who produces more outs than he should. The aggregate when added up though points to the WAR he received and thus his perceived value by the important decision makers in baseball (GM's). If he can change a couple of things I still think he could be an all star caliber player but he just wants to swing and his defense isn't exactly elite so if he stays who he is I think we can find better options for that spot. I still think the Twins keep him this coming year, but if wants to stay beyond that his OBP has to change and his defense needs to improve. There are three or four guys in our system that could be ready to take that spot if he doesn't improve.

I am happy we have another pitcher in the stable. Just need at least two more really good arms. Kind of hoping they can bring back Pineda and then get a top guy in free agency. Need two more solid arms to be able to compete would be nice if one was as a top of the rotation starter.

MIke I see this the same way. This isn't about bashing Eddie it is simply logical numbers based decision making. I love Rosario as much as the next guy but when looking at our farm system and payroll Eddie looks like the most likely to go at this point. Don't get me wrong I am pretty sure the Twins are keeping Rosario this year as they need the proven outfield depth so unless some team wants to overpay he will be around next year. Look the guy was almost an All Star in the first half but teams made changes just before the break and they seemed effective. They played Eddie to his pull side on defense and they kept pitching him low and away out of the zone and after two strikes they threw him junk and he swung at almost anything with two strikes. Granted he was also injured and that affected him as well but he needs to better understand when to swing and when not to swing if he ever wants to be that All Star player he wants to become. Given what I have seen I don't think he can change and if he can't then he is replaceable IMO.

Small sample size but Cave has the same OPS as Eddie and is probably a better defender in left than Eddie. Cave also had 8 dingers in his small number of a bats as well so he has some power. Not a great stretch for him to replace Eddie with those numbers.