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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah we pretty much agree then. I want to maximize value as much as possible as well but will sacrifice where it makes sense. I hope Austin decreases his K rate and does well. Maybe he will prove me wrong but at the same time I think we will be just fine without him.
  2. Dman
    When you have a surplus of talent at one position and a weakness at another I agree pretty much every GM is going to trade that surplus talent for talent that can potentially make the team better as a whole right now. So I agree with you on that. While I think most GM's would agree with your thoughts on position player value ( i.e. right fielder more valuable than 1st base) it seems short sighted to me in some ways. Let's say for the sake of argument we believe that our weakness is 1st base and we have a player who plays in the outfield but his bat and defense will play at 1st base. Why wouldn't we use them there if he makes the team stronger as a whole? Even though that player has more value in right or left field they still provide more value at your current weak 1st base position. I just think there are more ways to think about a players positional value when they have the flexibility to play multiple roles. They can still make your team stronger even if they aren't maximizing their skill set at their strongest position. While I understand your position and it makes sense to me I just think that being more flexible about defining player value can be valuable as well.
  3. Dman
    I agree both Raley and Kiriloff can play in the outfield but on this team who would they replace? Maybe if Kepler continues to struggle or Rosario gets injured they could replace them but their bats and defense would still play at 1st base. They could be rotated into the outfield as they have that ability but the guys that are there right now I think are pretty set as they are good offensively and defensively. You could argue that both Raley and Kiriloff can easily play the corners and they could trade one or two of the four corner outfielders for pitching if they wanted to, but I think if they can find another place where their bat would play why not use them there. As to your statement about which of those they would call up today probably none of them are ready right now. Raley might be but that is more of a guess than a statement. Rookers K rate and just plain swing and miss rate make him not ready and Kiriloff though talented could use more challenges\seasoning before making that kind of commitment to him. With Austudillo improving at catcher, Garver could play 1st right now as it looks like his bat would play at that position as well as catcher. Sano could also play first with Marwin or Austudillo playing third. So even with the lose of Austin I think we still have in house options. If all those fail there is always some grizzled vet out there that could be plugged in. We agree on a lot of things, even Cron to some degree. I just can't see Austin as that valuable with the K rate he has and you see him likely getting over the hump with more at bats. We will have to see how his season goes and then can find out which of us was more right or wrong. Fun discussion. Thanks!
  4. Dman
    Good point. I never loved the Cron move but am OK with it. I guess I just see the future differently than you do. I think Raley, ROOKER, or possibly Kiriloff end up at first base with as much or more potential than Austin. I don't like Austin's K rate making 30 to 40 percent automatic outs does not bode well for his future success. If his K rate was lower I would be on your side.
  5. Dman
    I think a lot of us on this site wanted to see Austin get a chance at 1st base and I agree I don't see a huge difference in the players when it comes to OPS. The main differences appear to be K rate about 10% less for Cron in MLB if IIRC. Also the lefty righty splits are in Crons favor as well. If you feel the quality of at bats are an important indicator for future performance then I think you go with Cron. If you go with gut and hope a player improves on some known weaknesses then you probably go with Austin. The other thing you fail to mention is why is it that only Austin can improve? Why can't Cron improve as well? It just feels like there is some bias in your analysis to me. I like Austin and have said I believe he can make it in MLB but he has a number of warts and right now I would rather develop Raley or Rooker for that role as they are not that much different than Austin and they have Options remaining.
  6. Dman
    Good in what way? OPS for the moment? I think that 41% K rate is going to catch up to him eventually. He also has a .750 BABIP I am sure he can keep that up all season. Don't get me wrong I like Austin but if you Like Austin then you should like Rooker just as much as they are the same player. Only Difference is that if you have a log jam at 1st base \ DH Rooker has options. Based on the numbers I think the Twins did the right thing here.
  7. Dman
    I was never a Diaz backer. Thought it was a bad pick but what this guy is doing is changing my mind. He has really slimmed down which should help him defensively. He seems to have a decent eye at the plate and he makes good contact. I really like what he has done and it shows he is serious about trying to make it to MLB. I am cheering him on this year as he needs a big year to regain the prospect status he has lost. He is off to a real good start. I hope he keeps this up.
  8. Dman
    Really like Garver and Austudillo in the same lineup together. Both have good bats and make the lineup tougher IMO. What a night for Garver. He will be hard pressed to have a more impressive night the rest of his career. Two HR's against one of the best pitchers in Baseball, Wow. I really liked that lineup and if you through in Cruz and eventually Sano it kind of becomes pick your poison for pitchers. If they stay healthy this should be a fun offense to watch.
  9. Dman
    Over time I have become a Cabbage Skeptic. There has been so, so much swing and miss to his game that I am doubting he makes it past High A. He needs to worry less about power and just contact the ball. If you don't put the ball in play you are an automatic out. He has already been passed by players younger than him drafted a year later than he was (i.e Miranda, Rortvedt, and Baddo) to name a few, Maybe he will be a late bloomer but IMO this is a make or break year for him. If he doesn't show improvement in his K rate his chances of making it are razor thin. I am glad he is off to a good start, but he needs to keep this up to move up IMO.
  10. Dman
    i get it. He hasn't even played a full year of Major League Baseball yet. There will be ups and downs and there is a chance the bat never does play in MLB. All I am saying is the counting stats suggest he can be a good hitter. We'll have to wait and see how things turn out.
  11. Dman
    Yeah this guy kind of reminds me of Tanner English. Maybe slightly faster but all defense and no offense. He has a couple of years left to see if he can be special with the bat otherwise guys who can't hit are sort of a dime a dozen.
  12. Dman
    Not sure what our infatuation with 4th outfielders is but I guess you can never have enough. For a marginal player like Austin I guess it is likely a take it or leave it proposition. His K rate is problematic so he is a flawed player as well. I just think that with a Platoon split and or more experience he actually has major league value. The guy we are getting doesn't even seem to have Austins level of potential but again i guess it is better than nothing. Giants got another marginal player from us that could turn into a solid player in time. For that price they can't lose on this trade.
  13. Dman
    While I agree the Turtle will never be Pucket as he just doesn't have his speed I think you are highly underestimating what La Tortuga can be. Since he rarely strikes out (3%) that means he is going to put more balls in play. Since the rough average for balls in play is .300 odds are he is going to be close to a .300 hitter unless he has bad BABIP luck. With good BABIP luck he will hit over .300. He also can hit for power and looks like a decent defensive catcher at this point (at least as good if not better than Garver). Add that all up (especially if he can play catcher) and you have a very valuable MLB player. If he ends up hitting around .300 which baring injury seems likely given his current track record, that would have been the best average on the entire Twins roster last year. Granted he has yet to play a full season of Major League baseball yet, but if you ask me the odds are in his favor to be a better than average catcher in MLB. A catcher who might hit better than JT Realmuto this year. Add to that he can also play 1st, 2nd, 3rd and left field and you have a flexible and valuable player who can fill in when and where needed. Give it time you will be on La Tortuga's bandwagon before long.
  14. Dman
    Thanks for calling out Marwin. Some of his at bats have been downright ugly. I know it's early and one good game can change a players stats significantly but right now he is black hole for us. I would rather see Austudillo playing third as he doesn't seem to be as affected by cold weather. Maybe let Marwin handle pinch hit duties until the weather warms up. I wonder if if Rocco corrects course or just shows faith in the veteran. At any rate he is making me wish we had Sano back at third.
  15. Dman
    Wow what a nice pro debut for Sands! K's the first 5 and 8 total. It is early but if Sands and Balazovich keep this up the pitchers in High A better be up to the challenge (I'm looking at you Tyler Watson) because those guys are looking like they are going to move up quickly. My boy Ernie is having a tough start at AA. I hope he can turn it around or he might get demoted. Gelly is looking really good starting the season in AA and Hamilton is off to a hot start as well. Two players Cabbage and Blankenhorn I had given up on are off to good starts. Here is hoping they can keep it up.
  16. Dman
    Really appreciated Rosario's HR. One missed pitch in the ninth with 3 - 2 lead and it is a tie game or a loss. Nice to see Max finding his power stroke. It seems like he is hitting the ball hard all the time now. Still a bit unlucky with BABIP but hopefully that comes around. Was happy to see the La Tortuga put one in the seats and even better take a walk. Seems like other teams might be a bit scared of the Turle these days and don't want to give him strikes or good pitches early in the count. Felt like the bull pen was shaky but it is a young group with guys getting adjusted etc. I think over time we will be alright in the pen. Pineda was the star for me though. Coming in and shutting that high powered lineup down today was huge. He pitches the same no matter the team it seems with excellent results so far. Very relieved that we will have at least one win in Philly with a chance for two. Also nice to see that we can play with the big boys.
  17. Dman
    Very impressed with the four walks Severino took tonight. Take what they give you and they will have to throw strikes or put you on base. balazovick what can you say. He should be in Fort Meyers I think. Nice to see the pitching take over in these games.
  18. Dman
    I've always liked the way Blankenhorn attacks the game but to me he has always been contact challenged. To much swing and miss, too many strikeouts. You can't have a K rate approaching 30% and think you are going to make it to MLB. His BABIP is around .300 for his carreer his walk rate is around 7% so he is in decent shape there. If he can get his K rate into the teens with another point or two up on the walk rate he will have a fighting chance. If the K rate remains where it is I don't see him making it. The pitching only gets tougher as you move up. If he doesn't conquer High A ball this year I see him dropping off prospect lists and into obscurity.
  19. Dman
    That is a good list. Some nice young pitching in that top 20. Only change I might make is swapping Ober for Stashak. Cody has been pretty lights out as a reliever and I expect him to dominate again this year. Even Eades could be in this list somewhere but I guess when there are only 20 slots it gets hard to pick and choose who you like for those final spots. Thanks for putting this together it is nice to see what we have for pitching in the system.
  20. Dman
    I like the list and I have virtually nothing but stats and hearsay to guide my opinions but do you feel Willie Joe Garry is currently a better hitter than Ricardo De La Torre? They both struggled in short season ball but I thought Ricky held his own there while Willie had a pretty brutal start. If Raley is there how about GRZELAKOWSKI. He is a bit K prone but can take walks and had a nice OPS for High A. I am biased but I like Ernie De La Trinidad better than Pearson at this point. I know Ernie doesn't have Pearsons power potential but he has a better eye at the plate and better hit tool IMO. I really like where you put Helman and I would have him even higher. I think he will prove you right in the end. I know it was a small sample size but he hit well in Rookie Ball and when he got moved up he hit better than pretty much everyone else at A ball. There has to be something in his approach that makes him that successful. I will be watching him closely this year to see if we got a steal in the 11th round. High A is typically the toughest jump for hitters. If he does well there I think he makes it.
  21. Dman
    I was surprised and encouraged by what Garver did today with the bat. I think I under estimate his hitting sometimes. Although I know spring training doesn't mean anything he looked like he was struggling. Guess I was wrong. With the Turtle and Garver hitting like this we have great options off the bench. Kepler sure seems to have a good eye at the plate but he has some of the worst luck getting hits I have ever seen. Here's hoping he can get hot and get more confident. I love it when Rosario in on. He makes games fun. But he needs to let the game come to him. Several pitchers strategy seem to be getting him to chase pitches out of the zone which he happily does far too often. If he takes his walks they will start throwing him better pitches. Can't say enough good things about Cruz. He really makes the lineup more dangerous. If he stays healthy that signing looks huge for this team. Very happy with the start. Hoping we can steal a game or two from the Phillies.
  22. Dman
    After they had the bases loaded with no outs and didn't score I determined that the baseball gods were against us and they were going to let the Royals win the opener. We left a lot of guys in scoring position on base it was tough to watch that. Some how some way they did just enough to get the win. Felt a little bit bad for KC as they thought they had escaped another jam only to lose the game. Granted I think the umpires got the call right but it is a tough way to lose. Cruz is the real deal. I hope we can keep him healthy all year as he is a tough out. Given how Marwin has been playing I would rather have Sano back at third right now. Maybe it is time check out Adrianza at third and see what he can do. It seems like Marwin has been swinging at a lot of ptiches out of the zone. Very happy they got the win. Hoping for another win today before they head to the red hot Phillies for three games.
  23. Dman
    That lineup has star potential. 8 of the 9 positions are top 30 guys in the Twins system. If you still believe in Diaz as top 30 player then make it 9 out of 9. The pitching is better at High A so I would expect some of the younger players to struggle but what a fun lineup to box score watch.
  24. Dman
    Not a ton of star power in that lineup but a lot of those guys are sneaky good. Kiriloff and Arraez are the only young bats with star potential in the lineup. I really like Ernie De La Trinidad I know he is most likely a 4th outfielder type but he is a tough out and I like the way he plays. The Gryzz has some decent pop and a fairly good eye at the plate. A bit strike out prone but he has backup catcher\utility player written all over him. I have always been a big Jordon Gore fan. Not a great year last year but solid and he jumped levels. He too should have a shot to be a good utility player, maybe something more if he can find a bit more power. I like Kransons bat but he needs a bit more power if he plans to make it any further. It is a good group but the star power is a level below this one. There are a lot of interesting pitchers at this level and hard to say who will be able to perform or not. Should be a fun group to watch but as the article suggests there are players with greater potential already on the way.
  25. Dman
    I had Barnes in AA as he was pretty dominant the second half. My dream of Enlow, Balazioic, Duran and Graterol starting coming up together appears to be dead. Enlow and Balazovic start in A ball which stinks but it looks like Graterol will be AA bound so that is good news. Will be interesting to see how Jeffers, Larnach and Helman do in High A. I am hoping for good things from those picks. I also thought Ernie would start here but he must have made it to AA so that is good as well.
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