mikelink45

Drop Buxton and give me Garver

I was not excited by Homer and this did nothing to win me over.

Not Whitefield. I want the person to have the potential to actually start a game when needed. Celestino if Buxton goes down is an excellent choice.

Great insights. Loved the essay. I sure hope it works because I am a big fan of fielding. I know that OF has now caught up with infield in value, but I loved the Mark Belanger, Bobby Grich, Brooks Robinson infield - so fun to watch, so hard to hit against.

I think I have read this same group multiple times - I need someone to go out on the limb and shake things up. I would love to put kiriloff and Larnach instead of Cave and Wade. Dobnak in the rotation instead of Bailey. Duran in the pen instead of Wisler. I would be wrong, but it would get me quoted and debated.

Cleveland pitchers insure a quality season and I see them beating out the White Sox for second place. It is really dangerous to write off a team that has been dominant in the division for so long. You did not mention Terry Francona - he is the X factor - a really good manager for a long time.

I wish Balazovic was in camp - just seeing three who could move into a quality rotation is exciting.

I remember when Duffey came up and gave us this kind of shocking start as he pitched in 2015 - 5 - 1 with a 3,10 era then his WAR went from 1.6 to -1.3, -0.3, -0.1 and -0.1. We see Duffey as a stud reliever now, but his great first season saw his bubble burst. The same could be true for Dobnak (and I hope not). But baseball careers are all about adjustments and change. Other examples - " JIM HUGHES, 1975 A 33rd-round pick in 1969 by the Twins, Hughes made his debut in 1974, allowing eight runs (six earned) in 10 1/3 inning. After pitching just 7 1/3 innings in April 1975, Hughes went 6-0 with an 0.87 ERA in May, allowing just 29 hits in 52 innings. He’d have a strong second half as well, posting a 3.25 ERA in 18 starts and overall win 16 games with a 3.82 ERA. Hughes would dip to 9-14 with a 4.98 ERA in 1976 and pitch just two games in relief in 1977 before pitching a couple of more seasons in the minors." This is quoted from a list of one year wonders https://www.foxsports.com/north/story/minnesota-twins-one-season-wonders-pitchers-john-butcher-kevin-tapani-joe-mays-bill-dailey-052020 Adjust Randy - I would love to see you avoid this list.

It is the rotation that will hold them back.

I would count on Dobnak and Smeltzer - Thorpe really hurt himself with his personal leave this spring and has not established himself despite is tools. Chacin does nothing for me.

Good points - judging trades is really a challenge - I did the WAR route because that seems to be the industry standard right now. Not perfect, but one tool.

You really gave a lot of excellent reasons why we are not top ten! All they have to do is go out and prove the raters wrong.

I would drop the Rangers and add the A's. But the Twins still have to prove it to me. Sorry, no home town favoritism here. I love Berrios, but he has not shown that he can pick up the ball and take on the big boys in a key series. Odorizzi has been a five inning pitcher - that is not a number 2 - make to seven. Pineda has spent have of the last seasons in suspension for pEDS. Maeda is put in the pen at the end of the season for the Dodgers. He might be great for us, but if we succeed we have to face the Dodgers. Hill is 41. His career is a good story for us old guys, but he is not going to the HOF or even close. Bailey got a big contract and provided a big let down. We have the Uber driver and a lot of hopefuls. That does not get you rated. Let us see them produce the numbers and take us to the promised land and then the ratings will go up. Last note on the Rangers - Lance Lynn will forever be one of my least favorite players and Gibson has been a disappointment even at his best. Was someone from Texas on the panel.

Okay, but what my post did was make you and others think about this and comment and I am pleased with that.

This includes the McPhail era. It is true I did not get the Odorizzi trade in. I think I prefer free agents like Cruz. I also did not include the Maeda - Graterol trade - too early to judge. But I do like Graterol.

I really like the fact that they have gone against the trend and used speed and stolen bases to try to equalize their disadvantages. They can be fun to watch and they throw off the teams they face because teams do not see this kind of strategy in other opponents.

I am always curious about trades – do they work in the short run, long run or not at all? How do we judge the Twins trades? I am not interested in the end of the career moves of Killebrew and Thome, but rather the movement of players who will have a career that goes on for a few years after the trade. Most likely the balance between good and bad will even out after a number of years, although David Ortiz will always be a thorn in the Minnesota Twins field. But then Ortiz was not traded - we cut him (and you still think Kelly was a good manager?) and so we got nothing for him. Lucky Boston. So I will ignore that stupid move and look at real trades. And the Twins can always counter with - Liriano, Nathan and Bonser for Pierzynski. Joe Nathan is our greatest closer and he was with us for seven years accumulating 260 saves and 18.4 WAR. Liriano was also with us for seven years and was 50 – 52 with 4.33 ERA. For one year he was the best, but then injuries took him from HOF to great potential. He had 9 War for the seven years. Boof gave us our best name and played for us for three years. 18 – 25 with 5.12 era and -0.1 WAR. The three of them gave us 27.3 WAR. Pierzynski was with us 6 years and played 13 more after leaving us. He had 9.5 WAR with us and 14.3 after he left. I know we consider this a big Twins victory and it is, but maybe not as large as we like to claim. In 1989 we acquired Tapani and Aguilera for Viola. Tapani played seven terrific years for the Twins and was terrific. 75 – 63 with 4.06 ERA and 19.1 WAR. Aguilera was with us 11 years 40 – 47 and 254 saves with 3.50 ERA and 15.5 WAR – that is 34.6 total WAR. Frank Viola was a stud for us for 8 years, but his career was not long after leaving. A total of 15 years with 64 – 57 record in his years with the Mets, Red Sox, Reds, and Blue Jays. His WAR was 11.4 with us, 11.8 with the Red Sox and Mets and -1.1 his last two years. We won that trade for sure. Milton and Guzman and Buchanan for Knoblauch in 1998. Knoblauch was with us seven great years and is second to Carew in our 2B rankings. He accumulated 38 WAR in those year and then in 4 years with the Yankees he had 7.5 WAR until the yips ended his career. With the Yankees he also posted great post season numbers. Brian Buchanan was with us three years and had 0.3 WAR. Christian Guzman was with us 6 years and was one of the fastest and most exciting players we have had. He had 7.6 WAR before being traded. Eric Milton was with us six years and posted a record of 57 – 51 with 4.76 ERA. His WAR for us was -0.6. Put it all together and it is a wash, but NY was happy to have Knoblauch on their championship teams. 1976 Smalley, Singer, Gideon, and Cubbage for Blyleven Of course Bert would come back to the Twins and Smalley would go away and come back too. In all Smalley would play 10 years for us – seven after this trade and three more to end his career. He had 18.7 WAR in his seven years after this trade and 2.1 for his last stint with the team. Bill Singer was 9 – 9 in his one year with the team and had 0.4 WAR. Gideon did nothing for us or anyone else – he had one year in Texas. Mike Cubbage had five years with the Twins and 6.6 WAR. Blyleven had 11 years with the Twins out of 22 and seven came before the trade and 4 more in his last stint with us. He had 49.1 WAR with the Twins – 10.5 in his return so 38.6 before the trade. He had 47.1 WAR with other teams which would mean that we lost that trade! In 1979 thanks to Calvin Griffiths big mouth we had to trade Rod Carew for OF Ken Landreaux, C/OF Dave Engle, RHP Paul Hartzell, LHP Brad Havens. Rod had 63.8 WAR with the Twins when we traded him and 17.4 with the Angels afterward. Ken Landreaux was with the Twins for two years and had 1.8 WAR. Dave Engle played five years for us and had 3.9 WAR. Paul Hartzell was with us one year for 0.4 WAR. Brad Havens was with us three years for 0.3 WAR. We lost that one. In 1963 we pulled off one of our best trades – Jack Kralick for Jim Perry. Kralick pitched five years for Cleveland and had a 6.6. WAR. Jim Perry pitched for us for 10 years and won 128 games. He had a 26.3 WAR. That was a steal! In 2008 we got OF Carlos Gómez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber, RHP Kevin Mulvey for Johann Santana. Yes we lost this one. In the four years before his injuries ended a HOF career he had 15.3 WAR with the Mets. Gomez in his two years was exciting and posted 2.6 WAR. Guerra did not pitch for us. Philip Humber had no wins or losses in two years and a WAR of -0.1. Kevin Mulvey had -0.2 in his one year. Yes we lost that one. And if you are thinking – we traded Gomez for J J Hardy so we won, think again, we kept him one year and traded for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. If you are keeping track, we are 3 – 3 – 1 in the trades so far. 1969 we got RHP Luis Tiant, RHP Stan Williams for 3B Graig Nettles, RHP Dean Chance, RHP Bob Miller, CF Ted Uhlaender! Tiant had a 2.84 ERA in six seasons with Cleveland before the trade, and Williams was thought of as an ace reliever. Tiant, only threw 92 2/3 innings with the Twins because of a shoulder issue and was released after the season. Williams had a 1.99 ERA in 68 relief appearances in 1970 but was traded to the Cardinals the next year. Tiant then caught on with the Red Sox as one of their star starters and Nettles went on to play 19 years. Tiant had 1.2 WAR with the Twins out of 66.1 for his career and was 7 -3 before his injury and went on to win 229 games. We lost because we could not wait for his injury to heal. Stan Williams was 14 – 6 with 19 saves. He was a terrific relief pitcher but we only kept him 2 years and he had 2.3 WAR for us.Craig Nettles would play 22 years. He had 1.1 WAR in three years with the Twins, but as an excellent glove man and power hitter he would amass 68 WAR in his career. Chance was terrific for us with 13 WAR in three years but had a total of zero war his last three years. Ted Uhlander played only three more years for 1.1 WAR. Bob Miller pitched 17 years – nine after we traded him. He gained 5.7 WAR in that time, but served as a valuable relief pitcher. With Nettles alone we lost this one. And with our impatience for Tiant we doubly lost. 2007 OF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris, OF Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Barlett, and Eddie Morlan. Young was such a disappointment it would have been a good trade if we had given up only Eddie Morlan (who?). Delmon was here 4 years and teased us with his potential each year. His WAR for those years totaled – 1. He played 10 years total. Jason Barlett totaled 10.4 WAR for Tampa. Do I need to go on? Well we did get Brendan Harris and for three years he played for us and accumulated -0.6 WAR. For his career he ended with -0.3. Jason Pridie was with us 2 years and had -0.2 WAR. And then there was Matt Garza who won 93 games in 12 years and had 13.5 WAR after leaving us. WE DEFINITLY LOST THIS ONE. In 2010 there was the trade of Wilson Ramos to the Washington Nationals for Matt Capps and we also through in Joe Testa. I believe this was an unpopular trade! So far Ramos has 15.4 WAR. Matt was with us three years – I forgot that – and somehow got 1.9 WAR. So we lost that one too. THAT BRINGS THE RECORD TO 3 – 6 – 1 Now we come to the Centerfielder trades. Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy – do I have to go into the details? We lost. Denard Span for Alex Meyer – okay, let’s move on – we lost that one too. Ben Revere for Vance Worley (not good) and Trevor May – great! We won. It just took a while. Recently Eduardo Escobar was traded for Jhoan Duran and outfielders Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad. Escobar has been a stud for AZ and the minor leaguers are not here yet. Duran looks like he could be special and is listed as our number 5 prospect by MLB.com. Maciel is listed at number 27 and Tinidad is not on the list. Too early to judge, but AZ is happy! What about relief pitchers. Ryan Pressly traded for Acala (25) and Celestino (15). Both great prospects, but I think we would have liked to have Pressly in the pen. He was a star for Houston. Still too early for a final judgment. Nick Anderson for Brian Schales – Tampa Bay would do this trade any day. Anderson had 1.4 WAR last year and 3.32 era for Tampa as a rookie. Liam Hendriks was not really a trade but we DFA’d him so we could sign Phil Hughes. I suspect we would like him back too since he is now one of the best of all RPs. So I treat that as a default loss. The tally as I have it is 4 – 10 – 3. Maybe the desire to make trades is something we might want to think about.

I think their trio of rookie pitchers might make your take look bad. No they will not pass the Twins or compete for a 500 season, but in 60 games if they steal and extra 2 -3 wins from us that hurts. Good for Niko - he may have been a middling prospect, but he has taken advantage of his opportunity and as for Gardy - I like him. Who wouldn't have all those 90 loss seasons with the teams he has had each of those seasons. https://www.petoskeynews.com/sports/detroit-tigers-15-most-intriguing-prospects-after-2020-mlb-draft/article_bb41750f-90fd-5147-addd-e2b33ac685b3.html

We will no soon - I do not predict - just anticipate

I am not pleased that Marwin Gonzalez is the easy answer to the problems the Twins face - I prefer Rooker, Kiriloff, Larnach - this is Marwin's last year - I want the future now. Gonzalez +94 OPS does nothing for me. In the OF Wade and Cave are better that Gonzalez. Nice to have a utility man, but this year we have 60 players to choose from.

I will take Berrios and Hill before Odorizzi. Odorizzi was used well last year, he is not a dominant pitcher.

I am freaking out if Marwin starts in the OF at all. He is replacement level no matter how versatile he is. Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade are better and Kiriloff deserves the next spot.

That leaves me really cold. I want a reliever after a good seven inning start. Chacin and Poppen is like a throw away game and we cannot afford that in a 60 game season.

I am shocked - I saw the headline and thought this was a joke or an old post. It could not happen again and this soon. I feel sorry for Byron - how frustrating this must be. Please - not Marwin. Let's move down the line and get the prospects on the field if we have to fill spaces. Isn't there a real CF in the system? Celestino? He is on the 60 man. I would rather have someone who can field the position than another bat.

Kepler reminds me of Bob Allison - a really good, but not great player. BR has his comps as Phil Plantier Rick Ankiel, and Travis Shaw. None are really star level. Buxton is a Devon White comp now, but could be a Kenny Lofton with health. at this point BR has his comps as Cliff Mapes, Manuel Margot and Ryan Thompson - a collective who are they? Hill is 41 and has accumulated 65 wins total in his career - BR has Rich Harden and Odorizzi as comps. Nice to see this late in life surge, but age still continues to erode our physical talent. I look for Berrios to continue to rise and shine. I think Arraez can start a Carew/Gwynn career. I wish Garver was younger and Cruz too. Rosario will stay the same Polanco is the next question - BR comps for him are Tim Anderson, Junior Spivey and Ozzie Albes. Could he continue to rise to stardom?