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JW24

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Everything posted by JW24

  1. JW24
    Yankees can have this record. It would not, in any way, diminish this Twins season if they do not end the year with the most homers hit. AL Central champions is far more important. Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.
  2. JW24
    Puig was an absolute menace during the 4 game series back in August. The fact he has only been worth .1 fWAR since he was acquired is incredible since it felt like he was worth about 1 win just during that 4 games. Jose Ramirez was another guy who had a great series back in August. I wish he was healthy and able to play, but it bodes well for the Twins that they won't have to worry about his bat this series. Also, really like this quote from the article: The pitching match-ups fall pretty decently in the Twins’ favor as they get their ace against the Indians’ worst starter. Big Mike is absolutely our #1. I look forward to him starting game 1 of the ALDS. Edit: I previously called Pineda the Twins ace, meaning their #1. Not trying to start a debate on what does or does not constitute an ace. Just that he is the best starter on the staff.
  3. JW24
    I did want to estimate on the high side of the spectrum. I don't think the Twins would have to pay the $47M high-end estimate I made. Has anyone started a thread dedicated to the Twins potential arbitration situation this offseason, as well as opinions from those who comment on TD? I would love to discuss further, but this thread is probably not the most appropriate place to do so.
  4. JW24
    Agreed. At this point, I am hoping he is back by September 6. The immediate 9 games the Twins play starting that day will be huge (home for Cleveland, home for Washington, at Cleveland).
  5. JW24
    I am far from an expert on this, so I am hoping someone who knows more will answer your question because I am curious too! But I will give it a shot here (these are my estimates, no firm basis for my figures): CJ Cron: 5-7M Miguel Sano: 4-5M Ehire Adrianza: 2M Eddie Rosario: 6-8M Byron Buxton: 5-6M Jose Berrios: 3-4M Sam Dyson: 6-8M Taylor Rogers: 3-4M Trevor May: 2M Tyler Duffey: 1M Total: 37-47M These are estimates based on prior year's arbitration salaries and increases. I did not compare these figures to what other players have received in arbitration. If any of these figures are egregiously low or high, let me know as I am not an expert.
  6. JW24
    Once Tampa Bay moves to Montreal permanently, I hope Magill finds his way over there!
  7. JW24
    Checking in on Matt Magill, he is currently Seattle's closer, and he is pitching pretty well! For the month of August, he has an ERA of 3.00 (had an outing where he gave up 2 runs without getting an out) over 9 innings with a 12:1 K:BB ratio. I'm happy to see he is taking advantage of the opportunity he has been given! Hopefully he can finish the year strong and have an MLB spot with Seattle going into 2020.
  8. JW24
    Completely agree, bringing him back for next year and beyond should be a major priority! Right now, Big Mike has to be the guy who gets the ball in either Game 1 of the ALDS or the WC game. He has been phenomenal as of late.
  9. JW24
    What if Polanco gets hit by a pitch in his first at bat of game 5 (or 7) and is forced to leave the game? Hope Marwin or Arraez is able to play the most challenging infield position at a high level for 9 innings in a do-or-die game?
  10. JW24
    I 100% agree
  11. JW24
    I am not remotely in favor of 13 pitchers. However, in the event of a blowout, Adrianza has shown he can throw an inning if needed. Not in favor of Astudillo either. The Twins hopefully don't need a 3rd catcher and his positional versatility is not needed with Arraez, Marwin, and Adrianza on the roster already. I think it comes down to Cave or Adrianza.
  12. JW24
    I agree with this. Perhaps a better initial situation would have been if Cron had been on 2nd instead of Sano, and Adrianza was available to pinch run and replace him defensively (Sano slides to 1st). Either way, Adrianza has significantly more value than a 13th pitcher, which was the original topic regarding roster construct. Trying to identify the specific situations he will be used in is an exercise in futility.
  13. JW24
    This, I think, is the toughest argument against Adrianza. With the positional versatility of Marwin and Arraez, Jake Cave is probably the guy who should get Adrianza's spot as a late game pinch runner/defensive replacement. Even still, his value as a defensive replacement is almost nothing if Buxton, Kepler and Rosario are all healthy and in the lineup.
  14. JW24
    Since we aren't in that position (yet) we don't know what the best course of action is. However, as the situation was presented (9th inning, tie game, Sano on 2nd), that run either wins the game for the Twins in the 9th, or puts them ahead prior to playing defense. If the run does not score, Sano is not coming to the plate for at least 1 inning, maybe 2. That is 3-6 outs needed defensively, and in a close game in the post season, having your best defenders on the field in that situation is crucial. Why would you be willing to take Sano out of a game for a defensive replacement, but not be willing to pinch run for him prior? Only reason I can think of is shifting guys around defensively so Sano would move to 1st, Cron (or whoever) comes out, and Adrianza then enters the game at that point in order to upgrade defensively while keeping Sano's bat in the lineup should his spot come up again. I hope Rocco has to make some of these decisions. Nothing is better than playoff baseball
  15. JW24
    He is faster than Sano, and a better defender than Sano, and would have significantly more impact in a close game in the 9th inning than a pitcher who never gets in the series. In a 5 game series, where one or two plays/managerial decisions can decide each game, there is no doubt at all Adrianza's value is vastly higher than a 13th pitcher.
  16. JW24
    Late-game defensive replacements (and guys who can play all over the field) are so crucial in playoff games. Adrianza's defensive versatility alone makes his value to the Twins playoff roster exponentially more valuable than a 13th pitcher.
  17. JW24
    Not trading for Realmuto and opting to go with a Garver/Castro combination this year can be a fairly apples-to-apples comparison as they are all playing at the MLB level. In 500 plate appearances this year, Realmuto has 4.9 fWAR. In 510 plate appearances between Garver and Castro, they have amassed 4.0 fWAR. I don't think it is unreasonable to say the non-trade has worked out well for the Twins this season. Nick Nelson wrote about a potential trade for Realmuto that mentioned Kirilloff as the primary piece the Twins would give up. Depending on when Kirilloff debuts and what his impact is, I think we will have an answer well within 5 years, and I think it will favor the Twins.
  18. JW24
    His bat is going to make it tough to take him out of the lineup even when Buxton returns. If Eddie isn't 100%, Cave should (IMO) continue to see regular playing time in LF. Nice luxury to have!
  19. JW24
    Bret Boone is too
  20. JW24
    You could have been way more harsh here. Detroit is not trying to win games, and they have assembled the worst lineup in all of baseball. Matthew Boyd is their only competent starting pitcher (I do like Turnbull though). They are awful, intentionally at this point, and should be called out. Looks like Detroit has shuffled their starting pitching a bit for this weekend as well. Drew VerHagen tonight, Jackson Saturday, then Boyd.
  21. JW24
    Good breakdown, hope to see Berrios finish the season strong. He really has been pretty darn good this year. Much like Sano, it is frustrating when things don't go well for him because of all the talent he has, but no one is great for an entire 162 game slate (except maybe Mike Trout). As long as he pitches well in September and October, his recent issues will be easily forgotten. Also, for those of you who play FanDuel, Berrios is $8,800 today, which is a bargain, especially against Detroit. Kepler and Cruz are pretty affordable too.
  22. JW24
    Hopefully the Twins jump all over Giolito today like they did his last start against them. I'm sure Cruz will be happy to see Giolito again. Need to make sure he comes up with guys on base!
  23. JW24
    Competing for 9 innings is not unsportsmanlike, it is being a professional. David Ortiz once started to walk to 1st base as a pitcher went into his motion on a 3-0 to show up the pitcher. That is much more disrespectful than taking a cut at a ball in the strike zone. The vindictive fan in me hopes Kepler hits a homer tonight, stands in the box until it lands in the seats, and takes about 3 minutes to round the bases.
  24. JW24
    Across MLB this year, in 3-0 counts, players are hitting .385/.935/.756 (1.692 OPS), which is the highest OPS of any count by nearly .300. 3-1 counts have resulted in a 1.427 OPS. Every hitter goes to the plate with the intent of hitting the best pitch they see as hard as they can. Sometimes that is the first pitch of the at bat. Sometimes it comes with a 3-0 count, and guys are crushing the ball in this count. Absolutely no issue with a hitter, regardless of game scenario, swinging away 3-0. None at all. It is a professional hitter up at the plate, and it is also a professional pitcher standing on the mound. Make better pitches.
  25. JW24
    There might have been more of a reaction by both teams had Kepler taken offense to getting hit and made a scene. At that point the dugouts have to clear and guys have to hold each other back and then return to their own dugouts. Pitchers hitting batters purposefully is the absolute worst part of baseball because of some unwritten rule that was broken (or because the pitcher has thin skin), and quite frankly is something the commissioner should hand out more extreme punishments for to get rid of it. It is not tough, it is pathetic.
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