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big dog

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Everything posted by big dog

  1. big dog
    They are extremely similar, in that both of them are willing to swing at pitches in their eyes or pitches that have already bounced.
  2. big dog
    The part of the preseason narrative that sold me on the Twins being over 500 was all the divisional game against these terrible teams- the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers. The Twins are only 2 over against the division overall, including the Indians (and tonight's impending loss). Not exactly getting it done. If they cleaned up against those teams, they would be making this something like an actual playoff race for Twins fans.
  3. big dog
    Mitch, Mitch, Mitch...geez
  4. big dog
    Very good career, just a terrible return for the Giants, that's all I mean.
  5. big dog
    Buxton would have had at least 5 bases on that Kepler triple. Could have been six but the throw to second would have been too close.
  6. big dog
    Not many of them for the Giants, though. He played one year and then left as a free agent.
  7. big dog
    Drake, however, thinks he might be the best umpire to ever stand behind the plate.
  8. big dog
    Fun way for Busenitz to return to the big leagues. Heck of a job, though. That keeps Gonsalves' first ERA in double digits anyway. I hope Gonsalves can shake this off before his next start. He didn't show great stuff tonight, though he did have some good pitches.
  9. big dog
    I think young players, and we certainly have quite a few, benefit from winning. Let's win.
  10. big dog
    I was going through some old e-mails last night, and one was a note from my wife while I was away on a business trip. She said that the dog ate a potholder. I don't think he was lonesome, though, I think it was just a potential opportunity.
  11. big dog
    Adrianza playing first and Niko *%$^ Goodrum hitting cleanup. What kind of world has this become? It figures that both of these managers came up as Twins coaches.
  12. big dog
    There's a couple of quality wins right there. Let's change the culture. They are building a very good home record for a team that is well below .500
  13. big dog
    If Goodrum pretended every team was the Twins he’d be MVP.
  14. big dog
    My lord Eddie can make some stupid throws.
  15. big dog
    LIke-ity Like Like Like
  16. big dog
    Winner but holy crap why does Rodney do this to us??? I’m not a young man
  17. big dog
    My take- what little I've read over the last 24 hours suggests that there is certainly some correlation between ranking and outcome, but the errors are really high. In that 2000 sample that I updated, 22 of the top 50 prospects contributed less than 1 WAR over their career. However, many of the others did much better, I'm sure far better than a random draw from the minor leagues would have done. So if you can reduce the odds of getting a bust, or finding a Lance Berkman, it's worth a lot of money, even if you go from "not very good at it" to "slightly better at it". Trying harder won't lead to an ideal outcome, but it could very well lead to a better outcome on average. You will still have busts- freak injuries, substance or focus problems, being Delmon Young, whatever else might happen. Just because something has a lot of error doesn't mean it is random, or that predicting is worthless. It means you have to settle for predictions that are better than nothing, maybe quite a bit better than nothing, but far from perfect. Now I have to go back to my job as a meteorologist. It will rain today, somewhere, I promise.
  18. big dog
    Thanks, Lance. Thanks a lot.
  19. big dog
    Thanks, interesting stuff.
  20. big dog
    Hey we got three hits! So...hey three hits!
  21. big dog
    If I really wanted to follow up on this, which I'm pretty sure my employer does not see as today's high priority, it would be interesting to grab a few prospect lists from different sources in the same year and see how they stacked up compared to each other. I didn't even pay attention to the source of the particular prospect list that was posted, I just wanted to know how that particular story ended.
  22. big dog
    Thanks, I was sure there were some actual good studies out there, but I noticed that the study of 2000's top 50 only went through 2008 so I thought I would take 20 minutes and do one quick thing. I am 100% convinced it proves absolutely nothing, except that prospect rankings aren't perfect, and I'm pretty sure that we all knew that. It did strike me as an interesting thing to do, but that's as far I would take it.. One important problem with looking at the rankings from a particular year, for instance, is that it completely ignores when the player was drafted (both round and year). I'm sure more thoughtful studies control for those things in various ways. I certainly wouldn't argue that either drafting or ranking prospects is a crapshoot, and I would like to think that at least some people get better at predicting success over time so that while there are still huge surprises (positive and negative), there are fewer of them than there used to be. That wouldn't shock me one bit.
  23. big dog
    OK, because I know everyone wants to know this- here are some updated statistics on that Top Prospects of 2000 list. 50 names, 3 did not play in the majors: Ryan Anderson, Junior Guerrero, Wes Anderson Average career WAR: 9.8 (not including the 3 that never made it) Average ML career: 8.7 years Top career WAR: Lance Berkman, 52.1 Rafael Furcal, 39.4 Josh Beckett, 35.7 A.J. Burnett, 29.1 Vernon Wells, 28.5 Josh Hamilton, 28.3 Alfonso Soriano, 28.2 Ramon Hernandez, 21.9 8 were between 10 and 20 WAR 12 were between 1 and 10 WAR 7 were between 0 and 1 (not including the three who never made it) 12 players had negative WAR Of the 8 with more than 20 WAR, only Wells was a top-10 ranked prospect in 2000. Berkman and Beckett were both between 40 and 50 Hamilton and Burnett were both between 30 and 39 Twins news: Cuddyer was the 10th-ranked prospect, finished 12th in WAR at 17.3 LeCroy was the 30th-ranked prospect, finished 30th in WAR at 0.4 Restovich was ranked 42, finished 41 in WAR at -0.5 They also had late-career bad performances from a number of other players on this list, including (forgive me for ruining your visit to TD): Sean Burroughs (5.5 career WAR) Ramon Ortiz (4.4) Mike Lamb (4)
  24. big dog
    Seems like a waste of three roster spots...
  25. big dog
    Interesting article, thanks. Chargois had a great first month with LA, had a couple rough outings in May, was sent down, and is now back. Since his return: 9 appearances 7.2 IP 3 H, 1 ER 10 K 0 BB WHIP 0.39 I'd rather have him than any of the others, though I have not given up on Littell at all. Ynoa is too far away for me to have regrets, especially given the 40-man roster challenges the team is going to face in the next couple of years. Murphy had a spectacular few weeks there through June 1, but his work since has been terrible. No regrets, other than that Molly is still trotting out Bobby Wilson far too often. That's not a problem that Murphy solves.
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