Mr. Brooks

For people in snowy climates, traveling cross country by ski, hunting game would have been a necessary skill for survival. This is the origin of biathlon.

I'll third this. Not a fan of the music itself, but so many worse things he could be doing in his free time. Not many people are wired to be able to focus on work 24/7/365 without burning out fast. Balance is good.

Is Kiriloff comparable to Jason Kubel?

At least 17 reported dead in another school shooting. This city was voted Florida's safest city last year. These can happen anywhere, which makes them all the more scary. I shouldn't have to fear that next time it'll be my children's school. But, I do. It makes me sad and angry that i have to fear this when I send my kids to school everyday. I hope that eventually, we will find a way to work together to stop this nonsense, but I fear were never will.

Well we know it was an offer that was unlikely to succeed, as we know it was 5 years with no opt out. I don't think I'm making too much of an assumption if I figure that his people told teams they wouldn't sign a deal that didn't include a 6th year and/ or an opt out. It was foolish, IMO, to think that eventually one team wouldn't cave and offer one or both of those demands.

With a few days to reflect, I have two theories of what I think might have happened. A) I've always been extremely skeptical whenever TR and ownership said they never said no to money. Never believed it. Why would a GM hamstring himself, if ownership is practically begging him to spend more money? So, perhaps Falvine took Pohlad at his word? They start getting everyone amped up for Darvish, genuinely. Even Pohlad gets in on the hype, because he assumes they get the bit, and are just trying to build some pr for the upcoming season. Then, when things start getting serious, Pohlad says, "whoa, guys. I figured the old regime would have filled you in. When you say ownership never says no to money, that's you falling on the sword for me. You didn't think you could really spend like a drunken sailor, did you?" Falvine are devastated, but need to save face. So, they make an offer that, in real world dollars, looks like (and is) a lot of money. But, small enough that really has almost no chance. Or.... Falvine, and Pohlad genuinely were going to do what it took to get Darvish. They were prepared to go to the upper levels of what he was projected to get. But, the market was weird this year. The big dogs were sitting it out. And, that old Pohlad ideology of, let's get a bargain, let's really make sure we win this deal, starts creeping in. Is it possible, they start to think. Can we have our cake and eat it too? Maybe, just maybe, this off-season is so weird, that nobody will emerge with that 6th year, and that opt out. Like a gambler talking himself into a long shot being a "can't miss", and throwing his mortgage payment onto a gimp horse, they convince themselves they can not just get Darvish, but get him at a bargain too. I, obviously, think B is the more likely of the two, though I'm not sure A is PURE fantasy. I've just never believed this whole, oh Pohlad has never said no garbage.

But you can't just set luxury tax aside. That's the reason. They want to reset their tax penalty so that they can be aggressive in the Harper/Machado sweepstakes next year.

But does it make them better enough to win a WS? To me, no, not even close. By this time next year Gonsalves and/or Romero could be as good as or better than those guys. We need a guy at the top, IMO, to anchor ahead of Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves and Mejia if we want a reasonable chance of cashing in this 3 or 4 year window we're entering.

In sports where the money is all guaranteed, the total value is typically the number that matters. $26 million is a pretty big gulf, and that's before you factor in the value of an opt out, which makes it more like $40 million. They also don't know exactly what other teams are offering, that would be collusion. So, if upon entering FA, it was suggested here that the Twins would offer him $100 million, what would your honest expectation of that offer being accept have been?

Signing a 30+ year old top FA is probably always going to be an unwise investment though. That's the price to play in that end of the pool. The Twins FA model has always seemed to be, we're going to try to identify the best bargains in the market. That's not necessarily a bad approach all the time, but it's never going to get you the top guy. It's frustrating that they said he was a priority, but then tried to apply that unrealistic model to him. As you said yourself, they knew that offer probably wasn't going to be good enough. To your last paragraph, sure there are solid players left. But none that move the needle like Darvish would have. And mid market teams don't get an endless window like the big spenders do. Some of us fear that this idea of small, incremental improvements is going to have us peaking as a good, but not WS team before our window closes. With the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox seemingly sitting this one out, it feels like an opportunity that they probably won't get again any time soon.

If that would be enough for Archer (I don't think it's close), I'd hope the deal would already be done. I don't think you even get a return phone call for any package that doesn't include Lewis.

4.16 and 4.82 FIP, respectively.

But their biggest need is a front of the rotation starter. (Darvish or Archer.) A number 4, (Cobb/Lynn), or 5 (Tillman/Garcia), doesn't really move the needle much.

Nick- (I think) We all love your writing here. I know, personally, you're my favorite. But writing about how much of a difference maker Darvish would be, when it seemed like the Twins might get him- to suddenly arguing he's really not THAT great once the Twins come up short, just feels really weird. I'm not questioning your credibility, but I just can't shake that bizzare feeling when I see you in this thread knocking Darvish now, when you thought he instantly turned them into title contenders prior to them missing out.

Yeah, neither did those loaded 90's Cleveland lineups. Gotta have pitching at some point.

On your first point, you yourself acknowledged that they made an offer, knowing it probably wasn't enough. Regardless of the meaning of the raw amount, relative to your budget, submitting an offer that you know isn't good enough, is not a serious attempt. 50K is a lot of money to me. It would be the most I ever offered to pay for a car. But that doesn't make it a serious offer if I walk into a Lamborghini dealership with it. On your second point, I apologize for not noticing that detail. Pro sports injuries, especially when surgery is involved, is almost always given in recovery time. If Heezy is reading, would appreciate any insight on the expected recovery time for this surgery.

Mediocre? I wish!

And that is what I would want the decision to be based on, their tools and larger sample size performance in the minors.

I'd love to see one of these guys make the team, but I'm not really a fan of performance in a tiny sample size of practice games having any influence on whether a player makes the team or not.

The difference is that probably upwards of 15 teams would have high interest in attaining Archer. So, they aren't going to have to settle for a lesser haul, just to clear salary.

Projecting Santana to be back in early May seems quite optimistic to me. The 10-12 week recovery time given puts him at between roughly April 20th- May 4th, at which point he'd need a pretty lengthy rehab stint, considering he'll barely have thrown a baseball in 7 months. I'd guess that the third week in May is about the best case scenario.

If they submitted an offer that they knew wasn't good enough, then they weren't serious about signing him, regardless of how large the figures were relative to previous Twins signings. Especially when the final price was $40+ million less than projected coming into the off-season.

As recently as last Tuesday, on Mackey & Judd, Levine was still saying they were pursuing Darvish? Why would he say that, if they'd already moved on? And, if they had, but were still saying they were pursuing him, do you see how that could create some mistrust of the process?

Well I've never once stated that I think mlb players are underpaid. I've even gone out of my way to remind you of that more than once in this thread. This has been a fascinating discussion, but I won't continue an argument against words being put in my mouth.

If opt-outs are such a bad deal for teams, then why are they seemingly handing them out like candy these days?