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Mr. Brooks

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Everything posted by Mr. Brooks

  1. Mr. Brooks
    I'm not sure that's a great way to evaluate their impact. They aren't replacing guys who would have won 0 games. It's better to try to analyze how much each player gains you over who they would have replaced.
  2. Mr. Brooks
    I misunderstood the following quote from you then: "The reason is that if he were here, whomever ends up #5 would not." What did you mean by this, if not that Darvish would be blocking whoever would have ended up #5?
  3. Mr. Brooks
    This post seems contradictory to the following, which you wrote in your previous article: "Darvish would be an awesome fit on the Twins and would lift them to serious championship contender status almost instantly." What FA pitchers remaining do you think lift the Twins to serious championship contenders immediately?
  4. Mr. Brooks
    No, there are no requirements. But the poster I quoted specifically said that signing Darvish might block a guy that could be better than him in 2018. I'm just not seeing how Darvish would block Trevor May, that's all.
  5. Mr. Brooks
    Yeah, IMO there was exactly one "high caliber" starting pitcher available in FA this year, and he's gone. I see a few mid caliber pitchers left.
  6. Mr. Brooks
    Considering May won't be available to start the season in the rotation, I'm not sure how signing Darvish would have blocked May from the rotation in any way. But, we'll check in on Darvish vs. May after 2018 anyway.
  7. Mr. Brooks
    Won't those meaningless ST innings "that can now go to a young player that actually needs them" just go to some non-roster invitee that we've never heard of?
  8. Mr. Brooks
    No, he will definitely be better than our #5 starter. Unless we move Berrios into the #5 spot for some weird reason, otherwise give me a name. Any realistic name that will be in that #5 spot that has a chance to even maybe be better than Darvish in 2018.
  9. Mr. Brooks
    I think you missed this part: "Steamer Projections predicts Darvish will outpace Arrieta in WAR in 2018 (3.6 to 2.7). If we were to use these marks as a starting point in a performance value model like those above, Darvish would be worth $126.88 million with Arrieta sitting at $82.12 million across five seasons. These values reflect a significant boost for Darvish and a slightly lower estimation for Arrieta, which happens to correlate with each pitcher’s recent production trends. Darvish has been the more consistent pitcher of the two. He proved to be durable in 2017, but he wasn’t just strong — he was effective. Darvish’s strikeout rate was once again over 10.0 K/9 and for the second straight season his walk rate was 2.8 BB/9. But he did allow 1.3 home runs per game, the highest mark in his career. Darvish is widely considered to have much better “stuff” than Arrieta, which could lead to more dominating performances. In the meantime, Arrieta’s production is quickly trending downward across most statistical categories from his 2015 Cy Young performance. Arrieta’s ERA+ decreased for the second straight season, his fastball velocity is in decline, hits allowed per nine has increased and he was also touched for a significant number of home runs per game in 2017 (1.2)."
  10. Mr. Brooks
    If Falvine seriously thought that nobody would eventually cave on a 6th year, and/or an opt out, then that's naivete bordering on incompetence, IMO. And I'm a Falvine fanboy! Sticking with 5 years and no opt out, when Darvish is telling you that one or both of those are dealbreakers, is not a serious offer.
  11. Mr. Brooks
    Because Bellenili isn't BFF with Thibs?
  12. Mr. Brooks
    Hughes contract isn't even close to tradeable at this point. Maybe if he shows he's healthy and pitching ok for several months. Ask yourself if the roles were reversed, under what circumstances would you want the Twins to trade FOR Hughes?
  13. Mr. Brooks
    Darvish MIGHT be one of our 5 best starters? Might? Ok. I think you might be too biased to even make your argument honestly.
  14. Mr. Brooks
    That's true of any one individual decision. Over the long run, Plan A should work out better than Plan B about 50% more often, using your hypothetical figures. I don't want to speak for Chief but I think he used the word often intentionally.
  15. Mr. Brooks
    By this logic, couldn't you just as easily and accurately say that sometimes Plan B is a disaster, and Plan A really works out better?
  16. Mr. Brooks
    I'm not necessarily arguing against taking a shot on Tillman. But, these signings aren't black and white. In addition to the two options of him either bouncing back, or being terrible and easy to cut, there is also the grey area where he's bad enough to hurt you a little but, but not awful enough to give up on quickly.
  17. Mr. Brooks
    Well, I don't know what was offered. But, if Darvish made it clear that it was going to take 6+ years to get a deal done, and we offered 5, then no, I don't think a legitimate offer was made. Eventually someone was going to cave on the 6th year. The Twins had to know that.
  18. Mr. Brooks
    2014 and 2016 were both shortened by the timing of the TJ Surgery. If you want to claim that one significant injury means he's injury prone, then I don't think you are being objective. In what way was he "average at best" in 2017? He had 3.8 bWAR. If you want to go old school, his ERA+ was 122, which is, by definition, 22% better than average.
  19. Mr. Brooks
    So not much, aside from the TJ Surgery. A few missed starts, not that uncommon. You are including time lost to TJ in your average innings. He averages 193 innings in the seasons not affected by the TJ surgery. That's pretty good, IMO.
  20. Mr. Brooks
    Perhaps the offer wasn't good enough.
  21. Mr. Brooks
    What is this injury history you keep mentioning with Darvish? Hasn't he been pretty healthy, outside of the TJ Surgery?
  22. Mr. Brooks
    Does anyone actually have any evidence that Darvish didn't want to come here?
  23. Mr. Brooks
    I'm not sure what you mean by some of this. What do you mean when you say Napoli brings more balance? He's even more HR or nothing at this point than Vargas is. You also mention league average. Vargas is actually slightly better than league average the last 3 years, while Napoli is well below league average the last 3 years.
  24. Mr. Brooks
    I don't think anyone will disagree that you build your foundation through your milb system. But, I think for the most part, that foundation is pretty well set. Could probably see one more starting pitcher emerge this year, but there is room in the rotation, Darvish won't be blocking that player. At some point, you also need to add walls, and a roof. Otherwise, no matter how impeccable your foundation is, it's still just a big hole in the ground. Do you have any examples of recent WS champions who were solely built from within? I'd venture that most, if not all, eventually added a big time piece or two to put them over the top. One might argue that they are still a year away from really needing that piece. And, typically I might agree. This isn't a typical off-season, though. With many of the big players seemingly sitting this one out, to reset the luxury tax for Harper and Machado next year, this might be the only legitimately reasonable chance that the Twins will have to add the best FA available.
  25. Mr. Brooks
    I admit I didn't read the papers yesterday, but I didn't realize it has been confirmed as fact that the Twins offered 5 years. Do you have a source for that?
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