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Chances for Each Twins Top Prospect Impacting the 2020 Roster
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Each prospect below was ranked on a scale from Unlikely to Possibly to Probably to Definitely. Things considered were inclusion on the 40-man roster, prospect status, and 2019 performance. Royce Lewis, SS Twins Prospect Ranking: 1 Lewis is widely considered the team’s top prospect and he is coming off a season with some mixed results. He might have redeemed himself with a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League. Overall, he’s only played 33 games above High-A, so the Twins might have to be in a pinch to call him up. His speed is elite so he could be an intriguing pinch running option if the team needed him for that role. 2020 Impact: Unlikely Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Twins Prospect Ranking: 2 If the 2020 season had played out as planned, Kirilloff seemed like a lock to make his big-league debut even if it came as a September call-up. He dealt with a wrist injury last season, but he was still able to play over 90 games, all at Double-A. With a healed wrist, he should be back to mashing like he did in 2018 when he was the team’s minor league hitter of the year. 2020 Impact: Possibly Trevor Larnach, OF Twins Prospect Ranking: 3 Larnach is coming off a tremendous first full season in the Twins organization. He relied on his college experience to mash the ball at High- and Double-A. Unfortunately for him, there are quite a few players standing in the way of him making his debut. Players like Alex Kirilloff and Brent Rooker seem more likely to get a chance before Larnach. 2020 Impact: Unlikely Jordan Balazovic, RHP Twins Prospect Ranking: 4 Balazovic is the team’s best starting pitching prospect, but he has only thrown 73 innings above the Low-A level. He had a tremendous 2019 season with a 2.69 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, but it was probably a stretch for him to make his debut in 2020 even if there were 162 games. If the Twins need him as a starter this season, that might be bad news for the big-league squad. 2020 Impact: Unlikely Jhoan Duran, RHP Twins Prospect Ranking: 5 Duran takes Brusdar Graterol’s role as the big flame thrower in the Twins system. However, many believe Duran has a better shot to stick as a starting pitcher. For the 2020 season, Duran could be used in a similar role to Graterol last year. Enter late and throw gas out of the bullpen. 2020 Impact: Probably Ryan Jeffers, C Twins Prospect Ranking: 6 Jeffers is coming off a tremendous 2019 season where he established himself as not only the top catching prospect in the Twins system, but also one of the team’s best overall prospects. Minnesota already has Mitch Garver, Alex Avila and Willian Astudillo penciled into the 30-man roster, but an injury could mean he debuts this season. 2020 Impact: Possibly Lewis Thorpe, LHP Twins Prospect Ranking: 8 Heading into spring, Thorpe had a chance to make the Twins starting rotation. The only thing that prevented that was some time away from camp as he dealt with some personal issues. He is the best left-handed starting pitching prospect in the organization and he already has big-league experience so it’s a no brainer that he will impact this year’s team. 2020 Impact: Definitely Gilberto Celestino, OF Twins Prospect Ranking: 9 Celestino is an elite defensive outfielder and that might be his best chance at impacting the Twins this year. He’s already on the team’s 40-man roster so that could put him ahead of players like Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker. His offensive skills set might not be big-league ready, but there’s no question he could impact the game on the defensive side of the ball. 2020 Impact: Possibly Other Pitching Prospects 2020 Impacts Dakota Chalmers, RHP: Possibly Randy Dobnak, RHP: Definitely Sean Poppen, RHP: Possibly Fernando Romero, RHP: Possibly Devin Smeltzer, RHP: Definitely Cody Stashak, RHP: Definitely Other Hitting Prospects 2020 Impacts Travis Blankenhorn, UTL: Probably Nick Gordon, SS/2B: Possibly LaMonte Wade Jr, OF: Probably Brent Rooker, OF: Probably Which top prospect will have the biggest impact on the Twins this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email- 6 comments
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For those that might have missed it, the Twins Daily minor league writers recently held a draft of players in Minnesota’s farm system. When all was said and done, six teams of 16-players were selected, and we reached out to FanGraph’s Dan Szymborski to run the ZiPS projections for each roster. The results may surprise you…A few notes on the numbers below, these are career numbers and not a single season total because many of the prospects are very early in their professional careers. It was intriguing to see each writer’s strategy play out over the course of the draft as team’s had to balance prospect status and future value. Szymborski doesn’t typically like to do individual player profiles when things are this uncertain because it’s hard to look past just the numbers. Below you will see the team total for fWAR from ZiPS projected over the course of their careers. It also showcases one standout performer on each team. ZiPS loves pitchers as evident by the top-four team’s best player being a pitcher and this didn’t even include the top two pitching prospects in the Twins system. 6. Seth Stohs Top Player: Royce Lewis- 9.8 WAR Overall WAR: 20.7 Top Picks: Brent Rooker, Matt Wallner, Dakota Chalmers Other Players: Taylor Grzelakowski, Parker Phillips, Michael Helman, Wander Valdez, DaShawn Keirsey, Carlos Aguiar, Luis Rijo, Bailey Ober, Sean Poppen, Derek Molina, Javani Moran, Charlie Barnes Seth’s Thoughts: Drafting first is tough because, yes, you get the top player, but then you have to sit and watch as ten more players get taken before you can pick again. That said, I feel quite comfortable taking my chances with Royce. As you know, I am a bit of a prospect guy, so while the 2020 ranking may not look great for me, I will certainly take my chances with the prospects that I picked throughout the draft, and by about 2025, we are going to be really good! 5. Cody Christie Top Player: Trevor Larnach- 6.2 WAR Overall WAR: 33.2 Top Picks: Blayne Enlow, Ben Rortvedt, Misael Urbina Other Players: Victor Heredia, Charles Mack, Spencer, Steer, Wander Javier, Jacob Pearson, Ricky De La Torre, Jorge Alcala, Tyler Wells, Anthony Escobar, Steven Cruz, Evan Gillespie, Tyler Watson Cody’s Thoughts: I had the lowest overall top player but looking at the other top players and it’s easy to see why. If Trevor Larnach finishes his career with a lower overall WAR than Griffin Jax, the Twins have a long-term position player problem on their hands. Enlow has a chance to be one of the best pitchers in the organization and Rortvedt is the best catcher outside of Jeffers. If Larnach and Urbina hit their potential, watch out for my squad. 4. Ted Schwerzler Top Player: Griffin Jax- 9.9 WAR Overall WAR: 41.9 Top Picks: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Keoni Cavaco Other Players: Chris Williams, Trey Cabbage, Travis Blankenhorn, Edouard Juilien, Max Smith, Ernie De La Trinidad, Jimmy Kerrigan, Trevor Casanova, Cody Stashak, Ryan Mason, Ben Gross, Jake Reed Ted’s Thoughts: I actually love that Jax projects as the highest contributor among my team. I was somewhat surprised he wasn't selected in the Rule 5 draft this winter as I think he can hold down a rotation spot for a big-league club right now. Balazovic is the flashy arm with upside, but Jax is probably among the safest picks I made. At just shy of 42 total WAR, I feel good about my squad having solid long-term development opportunities and a bit less volatility than Seth could experience. 3. Jeremy Nygaard Top Player: Devin Smeltzer- 15.4 WAR Overall WAR: 48.4 Top Picks: Jhoan Duran, Gilberto Celestino, LaMonte Wade Jr. Other Players: Kidany Salva, Zander Wiel, Anthony Prato, Drew Maggi, Will Holland, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jared Akins, Chris Vallimont, Yennier Cano, Zach Neff, Benjamin Dum, Austin Schulfer Jeremy’s Thoughts: No surprise that Smeltzer is my top-projected player as he already has had some MLB success. Also, no surprise that I'm higher than Ted, Cody and Seth because, well... 2. Matt Braun Top Player: Lewis Thorpe- 14.9 WAR Overall WAR: 52.1 WAR Top Picks: Ryan Jeffers, Jose Miranda, Cole Sands Other Players: Gabe Snyder, Yunior Severino, Yeltsin Encarnacion, Gabriel Maciel, Willie Joe Garry Jr., Tyler Webb, Luis Baez, Bryan Sammons, Hector Lujan, Ryan Shreve, Adam Bray, Cody Laweryson Matt’s Thoughts: I’m quite happy with my placement. I can now say that I fully support Dan and his projection system because it must be well done if it liked me so much! I’m a big Thorpe fan especially so it’s nice to know that more advanced systems than my own feelings agree in his potential in MLB. 1. Steve Lein Top Player: Randy Dobnak-18.2 WAR Overall WAR: 53.7 Top Picks: Alex Kirilloff, Edwar Colina, Nick Gordon Other Players: Caleb Hamilton, Albee Weiss, Seth Gray, Jordan Gore, Akil Baddoo, Mark Contreras, Andrew Bechtold, Josh Winder, Moises Gomez, Tom Hackimer, Andrew Vasquez, Alex Phillips Steve’s Thoughts: When's my championship belt arrive? Hah. In all seriousness though, I tried to place a bit of a premium on proximity to the majors when making my picks, even taking a few guys who have already made their debut, and that may have helped me with ZIPS projections. Also rewarding for me to see the top overall player was Randy Dobnak, who I said when I picked him in the second round that it may have been a surprise to some. It was not for me, because I know just how good he's been rising to the majors. What do you think of the ZiPS results? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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A few notes on the numbers below, these are career numbers and not a single season total because many of the prospects are very early in their professional careers. It was intriguing to see each writer’s strategy play out over the course of the draft as team’s had to balance prospect status and future value. Szymborski doesn’t typically like to do individual player profiles when things are this uncertain because it’s hard to look past just the numbers. Below you will see the team total for fWAR from ZiPS projected over the course of their careers. It also showcases one standout performer on each team. ZiPS loves pitchers as evident by the top-four team’s best player being a pitcher and this didn’t even include the top two pitching prospects in the Twins system. 6. Seth Stohs Top Player: Royce Lewis- 9.8 WAR Overall WAR: 20.7 Top Picks: Brent Rooker, Matt Wallner, Dakota Chalmers Other Players: Taylor Grzelakowski, Parker Phillips, Michael Helman, Wander Valdez, DaShawn Keirsey, Carlos Aguiar, Luis Rijo, Bailey Ober, Sean Poppen, Derek Molina, Javani Moran, Charlie Barnes Seth’s Thoughts: Drafting first is tough because, yes, you get the top player, but then you have to sit and watch as ten more players get taken before you can pick again. That said, I feel quite comfortable taking my chances with Royce. As you know, I am a bit of a prospect guy, so while the 2020 ranking may not look great for me, I will certainly take my chances with the prospects that I picked throughout the draft, and by about 2025, we are going to be really good! 5. Cody Christie Top Player: Trevor Larnach- 6.2 WAR Overall WAR: 33.2 Top Picks: Blayne Enlow, Ben Rortvedt, Misael Urbina Other Players: Victor Heredia, Charles Mack, Spencer, Steer, Wander Javier, Jacob Pearson, Ricky De La Torre, Jorge Alcala, Tyler Wells, Anthony Escobar, Steven Cruz, Evan Gillespie, Tyler Watson Cody’s Thoughts: I had the lowest overall top player but looking at the other top players and it’s easy to see why. If Trevor Larnach finishes his career with a lower overall WAR than Griffin Jax, the Twins have a long-term position player problem on their hands. Enlow has a chance to be one of the best pitchers in the organization and Rortvedt is the best catcher outside of Jeffers. If Larnach and Urbina hit their potential, watch out for my squad. 4. Ted Schwerzler Top Player: Griffin Jax- 9.9 WAR Overall WAR: 41.9 Top Picks: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Keoni Cavaco Other Players: Chris Williams, Trey Cabbage, Travis Blankenhorn, Edouard Juilien, Max Smith, Ernie De La Trinidad, Jimmy Kerrigan, Trevor Casanova, Cody Stashak, Ryan Mason, Ben Gross, Jake Reed Ted’s Thoughts: I actually love that Jax projects as the highest contributor among my team. I was somewhat surprised he wasn't selected in the Rule 5 draft this winter as I think he can hold down a rotation spot for a big-league club right now. Balazovic is the flashy arm with upside, but Jax is probably among the safest picks I made. At just shy of 42 total WAR, I feel good about my squad having solid long-term development opportunities and a bit less volatility than Seth could experience. 3. Jeremy Nygaard Top Player: Devin Smeltzer- 15.4 WAR Overall WAR: 48.4 Top Picks: Jhoan Duran, Gilberto Celestino, LaMonte Wade Jr. Other Players: Kidany Salva, Zander Wiel, Anthony Prato, Drew Maggi, Will Holland, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jared Akins, Chris Vallimont, Yennier Cano, Zach Neff, Benjamin Dum, Austin Schulfer Jeremy’s Thoughts: No surprise that Smeltzer is my top-projected player as he already has had some MLB success. Also, no surprise that I'm higher than Ted, Cody and Seth because, well... 2. Matt Braun Top Player: Lewis Thorpe- 14.9 WAR Overall WAR: 52.1 WAR Top Picks: Ryan Jeffers, Jose Miranda, Cole Sands Other Players: Gabe Snyder, Yunior Severino, Yeltsin Encarnacion, Gabriel Maciel, Willie Joe Garry Jr., Tyler Webb, Luis Baez, Bryan Sammons, Hector Lujan, Ryan Shreve, Adam Bray, Cody Laweryson Matt’s Thoughts: I’m quite happy with my placement. I can now say that I fully support Dan and his projection system because it must be well done if it liked me so much! I’m a big Thorpe fan especially so it’s nice to know that more advanced systems than my own feelings agree in his potential in MLB. 1. Steve Lein Top Player: Randy Dobnak-18.2 WAR Overall WAR: 53.7 Top Picks: Alex Kirilloff, Edwar Colina, Nick Gordon Other Players: Caleb Hamilton, Albee Weiss, Seth Gray, Jordan Gore, Akil Baddoo, Mark Contreras, Andrew Bechtold, Josh Winder, Moises Gomez, Tom Hackimer, Andrew Vasquez, Alex Phillips Steve’s Thoughts: When's my championship belt arrive? Hah. In all seriousness though, I tried to place a bit of a premium on proximity to the majors when making my picks, even taking a few guys who have already made their debut, and that may have helped me with ZIPS projections. Also rewarding for me to see the top overall player was Randy Dobnak, who I said when I picked him in the second round that it may have been a surprise to some. It was not for me, because I know just how good he's been rising to the majors. What do you think of the ZiPS results? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Miguel Sano and Max Kepler (along with Jorge Polanco) were all part of a tremendous international signing class back in 2009. Flash-forward 11 years and the Twins were expecting big things from two of the roster’s core members. Unfortunately, most, if not all, of the 2020 season won’t be happening and it is depriving Twins Territory of two players in the midst of their peak season.Over at ESPN.com, David Schoenfield wrote about all the players that would have played the 2020 season as their age-27 campaign. Besides Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, the list includes, Gary Sanchez, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Truner, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro, Tim Anderson, and Matt Chapman. Multiple players on this list have already had great seasons in their careers, so what’s so special about being 27-years old? Baseball front office and fans have search for years to find out when a player reaches their peak performance. Bill James has done multiple studies on the subject dating back to the early-1980s. His aging patter study from 2017 confirmed his previous research that at age-27 players are in their peak season. Tom Tango did a different study and reached the same result with players peaking at 27 and having their best decade from age 23-32. Kepler was already coming off a breakout season where he hit .252/.336/.519 with 36 home runs and 32 doubles. According to Baseball Reference, he had the third highest WAR on the Twins while FanGraphs had him tied for the team lead. He finished in the top-20 for MVP voting, so it was certainly going to be tough for him to match those numbers again in 2020. Questions about Sano’s age have followed him since he was an amateur and there was even a documentary made about him being signed. When Twins Daily was first getting started, I wrote about Sano and the questions surrounding his age. Realistically, MLB investigated Sano’s situation and couldn’t verify his exact age and the topic has been largely forgotten. Last season, Sano set career highs in home runs (34), OPS (.923), slugging (.576), and RBI (79). He’s had three seasons where he has played more than 100 big-league games and he has averaged 29 home runs per season. His switch to first base was going to be an intriguing story line to watch this year because it might have allowed him to play more than 116 games, his career high from 2016. FanGraphs ZIPS projections for a full season had Kepler posting an .825 OPS while hitting 28 home runs and 31 doubles. The player comp for his was Trot Nixon and his WAR dipped from 4.4 in 2019 to 3.1 in 2020. This total only trailed the projected WAR total for Josh Donaldson. Sano was pegged for 35 home runs, 19 doubles, and a drop in OPS to .881. His player comp was Jay Buhner and FanGraphs had him tied with Nelson Cruz for fifth on the team in WAR. There are still plenty of questions swirling around baseball and if there will be any games played in 2020. That being said, it’s clear Twins fans are losing out on what could have been a pair of peak seasons from Sano and Kepler. Who do you think would have compiled better numbers this season, Sano or Kepler? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Sano and Kepler Are Missing Their Age-27 Peak Season in 2020
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Over at ESPN.com, David Schoenfield wrote about all the players that would have played the 2020 season as their age-27 campaign. Besides Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, the list includes, Gary Sanchez, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Truner, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro, Tim Anderson, and Matt Chapman. Multiple players on this list have already had great seasons in their careers, so what’s so special about being 27-years old? Baseball front office and fans have search for years to find out when a player reaches their peak performance. Bill James has done multiple studies on the subject dating back to the early-1980s. His aging patter study from 2017 confirmed his previous research that at age-27 players are in their peak season. Tom Tango did a different study and reached the same result with players peaking at 27 and having their best decade from age 23-32. Kepler was already coming off a breakout season where he hit .252/.336/.519 with 36 home runs and 32 doubles. According to Baseball Reference, he had the third highest WAR on the Twins while FanGraphs had him tied for the team lead. He finished in the top-20 for MVP voting, so it was certainly going to be tough for him to match those numbers again in 2020. Questions about Sano’s age have followed him since he was an amateur and there was even a documentary made about him being signed. When Twins Daily was first getting started, I wrote about Sano and the questions surrounding his age. Realistically, MLB investigated Sano’s situation and couldn’t verify his exact age and the topic has been largely forgotten. Last season, Sano set career highs in home runs (34), OPS (.923), slugging (.576), and RBI (79). He’s had three seasons where he has played more than 100 big-league games and he has averaged 29 home runs per season. His switch to first base was going to be an intriguing story line to watch this year because it might have allowed him to play more than 116 games, his career high from 2016. FanGraphs ZIPS projections for a full season had Kepler posting an .825 OPS while hitting 28 home runs and 31 doubles. The player comp for his was Trot Nixon and his WAR dipped from 4.4 in 2019 to 3.1 in 2020. This total only trailed the projected WAR total for Josh Donaldson. Sano was pegged for 35 home runs, 19 doubles, and a drop in OPS to .881. His player comp was Jay Buhner and FanGraphs had him tied with Nelson Cruz for fifth on the team in WAR. There are still plenty of questions swirling around baseball and if there will be any games played in 2020. That being said, it’s clear Twins fans are losing out on what could have been a pair of peak seasons from Sano and Kepler. Who do you think would have compiled better numbers this season, Sano or Kepler? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email- 1 comment
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In the aftermath this year's MLB Draft, it can be fun to reevaluate where an organization stacks up in the prospect department. For better or worse, franchises can make it or break it with their selections in the draft. It's also important for teams to be able to build from within to help manage the bottom line. Minnesota's top prospect list is littered with highly drafted players over the last handful of years. Players like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have all been taken with first-round picks. Ideally, these players will form the nucleus of Minnesota's next championship winning club.5. Jhoan Duran, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats: 5-12, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 136 K, 40 BB, 115.0 IP The Twins might have stolen Duran from the Diamondback organization as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade. Escobar was never going to be part of the long-term solution in Minnesota and Duran could be one of the answers to some of Minnesota’s pitching woes. Duran throws multiple fastballs with a four-seamer that can reach triple digits and consistently sits in the high-90s and a two-seamer that acts like a splitter which hits over 90 mph. Last season, Duran really put himself on the prospect map by showing plus velocity and multiple pitches as a starter. He was almost two year younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL and that number jumped to 3.3 years younger in the Southern League. Even with the age gap, he struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings and his walk rate dropped from 3.6 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9 after his promotion. 4. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+): 8-6, 2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 129 K, 25 BB, 93.2 IP Balazovic is good. Like, really good. He has the chance to be better than any pitcher in the current Twins rotation and that’s something the Twins have struggled to produce from the farm system for many years. The kicker is… He was a fifth-round draft pick under the previous front office regime. Talk about a going away present. He can hit the high 90s with his fastball and there is some sinking action on the pitch to induce groundballs. Add in a change-up in the mid-80s and that’s a recipe for disaster as a hitter. He made hitters look foolish in the MWL last season as he struck out 33 batters in just over 20 innings. Yes, that is over 14 strikeouts per nine innings. He took the jump to the FSL in stride and struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. In some organizations, he’d be the top prospect and that tells you how good the players are ahead of him. 3. Trevor Larnach, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .309/.384/.458, 13 HR, 30 2B, 124 K, 57 BB, 127 G In his second professional season, Larnach destroyed the baseball across two levels and an argument could be made for him to be the best prospect in the Twins organization. He’s had success in college and as a pro and that could help him to advance through the Twins system. Last season he was named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year and the Florida State League named him their Player of the Year. His 147 hits were the most in the Twins system and he seemed to get better as the season progressed. From August 2 through the season’s end, he had a .969 OPS with nine extra-base hits in 28 games. He’s added a lot of weight throughout college and his professional career and this will only help with his power numbers in the future. On the defensive side, he’s slotted in to be a corner outfielder and he seems likely to play that position throughout his professional career. 2. Alex Kirilloff, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (AA): .283/.343/.413, 9 HR, 18 2B, 76 K, 29 BB, 94 G Any prospect would have a tough time living up to the numbers compiled by Kirilloff in 2018. He dominated two levels of the minor leagues by hitting .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra-base hits in 130 games. The 2019 season was a different story as he missed time at season’s start with a wrist injury and then ended up back on the injured list with the same injury. From that point forward, he made his presence felt in the Southern League. In August, Kirilloff crushed the ball to the tune of a .311/.351/.500 slash-line with five home runs in and five doubles in 26 games. He really found his stride in the playoffs as he hit home runs in the Blue Wahoo’s first four playoff games and posted a 1.435 OPS during the team’s semifinal appearance. He and Larnach have been compared to each other but Kirilloff is younger and it’s scary to think about the outfield these two could occupy in the years ahead. 1. Royce Lewis, SS 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .236/.290/.371, 12 HR, 26 2B, 123 K, 38 BB, 127 G An argument can be made for any of the Twins top three prospects to be the best in the system. Lewis was the number one overall pick back in 2017 so it is going to be hard to ignore his prospect status no matter what he does in the minor leagues. Some might question the mechanics of his swing and some might question his eventual defensive position. His athleticism and skills are hard to ignore no matter what scouts might say about him. Even with a down season, the Twins sent Lewis to the Arizona Fall League and he dominated over the course of 95 plate appearances. He hit .353/.411/.565 with 12 extra-base hits in 22 games. Because of other players on the roster, he was asked to play positions besides shortstop, and he lived up to the challenge. Kirilloff and Larnach might beat him to the big-leagues, but Lewis could be a once-in-a-generation talent. PREVIOUS TOP-20 POSTS — Prospects 16-20 — Prospects 11-15 — Prospects 6-10 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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5. Jhoan Duran, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats: 5-12, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 136 K, 40 BB, 115.0 IP The Twins might have stolen Duran from the Diamondback organization as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade. Escobar was never going to be part of the long-term solution in Minnesota and Duran could be one of the answers to some of Minnesota’s pitching woes. Duran throws multiple fastballs with a four-seamer that can reach triple digits and consistently sits in the high-90s and a two-seamer that acts like a splitter which hits over 90 mph. Last season, Duran really put himself on the prospect map by showing plus velocity and multiple pitches as a starter. He was almost two year younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL and that number jumped to 3.3 years younger in the Southern League. Even with the age gap, he struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings and his walk rate dropped from 3.6 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9 after his promotion. 4. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+): 8-6, 2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 129 K, 25 BB, 93.2 IP Balazovic is good. Like, really good. He has the chance to be better than any pitcher in the current Twins rotation and that’s something the Twins have struggled to produce from the farm system for many years. The kicker is… He was a fifth-round draft pick under the previous front office regime. Talk about a going away present. He can hit the high 90s with his fastball and there is some sinking action on the pitch to induce groundballs. Add in a change-up in the mid-80s and that’s a recipe for disaster as a hitter. He made hitters look foolish in the MWL last season as he struck out 33 batters in just over 20 innings. Yes, that is over 14 strikeouts per nine innings. He took the jump to the FSL in stride and struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. In some organizations, he’d be the top prospect and that tells you how good the players are ahead of him. 3. Trevor Larnach, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .309/.384/.458, 13 HR, 30 2B, 124 K, 57 BB, 127 G In his second professional season, Larnach destroyed the baseball across two levels and an argument could be made for him to be the best prospect in the Twins organization. He’s had success in college and as a pro and that could help him to advance through the Twins system. Last season he was named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year and the Florida State League named him their Player of the Year. His 147 hits were the most in the Twins system and he seemed to get better as the season progressed. From August 2 through the season’s end, he had a .969 OPS with nine extra-base hits in 28 games. He’s added a lot of weight throughout college and his professional career and this will only help with his power numbers in the future. On the defensive side, he’s slotted in to be a corner outfielder and he seems likely to play that position throughout his professional career. 2. Alex Kirilloff, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (AA): .283/.343/.413, 9 HR, 18 2B, 76 K, 29 BB, 94 G Any prospect would have a tough time living up to the numbers compiled by Kirilloff in 2018. He dominated two levels of the minor leagues by hitting .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra-base hits in 130 games. The 2019 season was a different story as he missed time at season’s start with a wrist injury and then ended up back on the injured list with the same injury. From that point forward, he made his presence felt in the Southern League. In August, Kirilloff crushed the ball to the tune of a .311/.351/.500 slash-line with five home runs in and five doubles in 26 games. He really found his stride in the playoffs as he hit home runs in the Blue Wahoo’s first four playoff games and posted a 1.435 OPS during the team’s semifinal appearance. He and Larnach have been compared to each other but Kirilloff is younger and it’s scary to think about the outfield these two could occupy in the years ahead. 1. Royce Lewis, SS 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .236/.290/.371, 12 HR, 26 2B, 123 K, 38 BB, 127 G An argument can be made for any of the Twins top three prospects to be the best in the system. Lewis was the number one overall pick back in 2017 so it is going to be hard to ignore his prospect status no matter what he does in the minor leagues. Some might question the mechanics of his swing and some might question his eventual defensive position. His athleticism and skills are hard to ignore no matter what scouts might say about him. Even with a down season, the Twins sent Lewis to the Arizona Fall League and he dominated over the course of 95 plate appearances. He hit .353/.411/.565 with 12 extra-base hits in 22 games. Because of other players on the roster, he was asked to play positions besides shortstop, and he lived up to the challenge. Kirilloff and Larnach might beat him to the big-leagues, but Lewis could be a once-in-a-generation talent. PREVIOUS TOP-20 POSTS — Prospects 16-20 — Prospects 11-15 — Prospects 6-10 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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In the aftermath this year's MLB Draft, it can be fun to reevaluate where an organization stacks up in the prospect department. For better or worse, franchises can make it or break it with their selections in the draft. It's also important for teams to be able to build from within to help manage the bottom line. Minnesota's top prospect list is littered with highly drafted players over the last handful of years. Players like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have all been taken with first-round picks. Ideally, these players will form the nucleus of Minnesota's next championship winning club.10. Gilberto Celestino, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+): .277/.349/.410, 10 HR, 28 2B, 85 K, 50 BB, 125 G Celestino came to the Twins along with Jorge Alcala as part of the Ryan Pressly trade. He played almost the entire 2019 campaign in Cedar Rapids with a handful of games in Fort Myers at season’s end. He destroyed the ball in July by hitting .369/.430/.563 with 12 extra-base hits in 26 games. Things didn’t slow down much from there as he posted a .896 OPS in August and this included his promotion to a higher level. While he showed strong offensive ability last season, Celestino might be one of the best outfield defenders in the entire Twins organization. He’s played all three outfield positions, but his defense in centerfield will be his ticket to the big leagues. If he can continue to make offensive improvements, he could move quickly through the system in the years ahead. 9. Aaron Sabato, 1B 2019 NCAA Stats: .343/.453/.696, 18 HR, 25 2B, 56 K, 39 BB, 64 G Minnesota just took Sabato with their first-round draft pick last week and he has the power potential to slide into their top-10 prospects. He could be higher on the list, but many don’t see him as having much defensive value, so the Twins must hope his bat is what powers him throughout his professional career. His 2019 season was his lone full season at the collegiate level, because he was a draft eligible sophomore. He posted a 1.149 OPS that year and he might have been on track for an even better season in 2019. In 19 games during the 2020 season, Sabato had a .478 OBP and a .708 SLG with seven home runs and six doubles. This year’s draft certainly had some quirks with only five rounds and the first round saw a lot of teams select college players because they have a longer track record. Sabato is going to hit no matter what level he plays at and the Twins took him as a safe pick with plenty of upside. 8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 2019 MiLB Stats (AAA): 5-4, 4.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 119 K, 25 BB, 96.1 IP 2019 MLB Stats: 3-2, 6.18 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 31 K, 10 BB, 27.2 IP It might seem like Thorpe has been around the Twins organization for ages, especially since Minnesota signed him all the way back in 2012. He put up strong numbers in his first two professional seasons but missed all of 2015 and 2016 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Luckily, Thorpe was young enough where he was still back on the mound by his age-21 season and he spent the last two seasons moving through the upper levels of the minors. Across 114 innings at Double-A, he posted a 3.71 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a 10.9 K/9. His WHIP is over four points lower in 118 innings and his strikeout rate is higher (11.1 K/9). Thorpe was primed for a breakout season in 2020 with many in spring training were discussing the club’s high hopes for the southpaw. While his ERA and WHIP were high last season, he continued to strikeout batters and that’s something Twins fans can be excited about. He could be part of the Twins pitching staff for most of the next decade. 7. Keoni Cavaco, SS 2019 MiLB Stats (RK): .172/.217/.253, 1 HR, 4 2B, 35 K, 4 BB, 25 G One year ago, the Twins took Cavaco with the 13th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. He was seen as a player that rose on team’s draft boards in the months and weeks leading into the draft. A player like him might not have even been taken in 2020 because of the limitations on scouting and the shortened high school season. He didn’t see the same type of competition as other top high school players because he wasn’t invited to a lot of the showcase events leading into his senior season. Still, his tool set was hard for the Twins to ignore. His arm strength and speed are currently his two best tools. There were some obvious struggles at the plate last season, but he has plenty of power potential. As he continues getting experience against tougher competition, many believe he will be able to showcase the skills that put him on team’s draft radars. The Twins will give him every opportunity to stick at shortstop, but he has shown the ability to play third base during his amateur career. 6. Ryan Jeffers, C 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .264/.341/.421, 14 HR, 16 2B, 83 K, 37 BB, 103 G Mitch Garver might not want to look too closely in his rearview mirror because Jeffers might be closer to the big leagues than most would think. Minnesota took Jeffers in the second round back in 2018 and many viewed him as a bat-only player. He has refined his defense behind the plate since joining the Twins and his bat has certainly lived up to the hype he was receiving going into the draft. In his pro debut, Jeffers hit .344/.444/.502 with 24 extra-base hits in 64 games between the E-Twins and Cedar Rapids. Last season he spent almost 80 games in Fort Myers and hit double digits in home runs and doubles. He finished the year with 24 games in the Southern League and saw his OPS rise 124 points over what he compiled in the Florida State League. At 23-years old, he is the Twins catcher of the future and that future might not be that far away. PREVIOUS TOP-20 POSTS — Prospects 16-20 — Prospects 11-15 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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10. Gilberto Celestino, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+): .277/.349/.410, 10 HR, 28 2B, 85 K, 50 BB, 125 G Celestino came to the Twins along with Jorge Alcala as part of the Ryan Pressly trade. He played almost the entire 2019 campaign in Cedar Rapids with a handful of games in Fort Myers at season’s end. He destroyed the ball in July by hitting .369/.430/.563 with 12 extra-base hits in 26 games. Things didn’t slow down much from there as he posted a .896 OPS in August and this included his promotion to a higher level. While he showed strong offensive ability last season, Celestino might be one of the best outfield defenders in the entire Twins organization. He’s played all three outfield positions, but his defense in centerfield will be his ticket to the big leagues. If he can continue to make offensive improvements, he could move quickly through the system in the years ahead. 9. Aaron Sabato, 1B 2019 NCAA Stats: .343/.453/.696, 18 HR, 25 2B, 56 K, 39 BB, 64 G Minnesota just took Sabato with their first-round draft pick last week and he has the power potential to slide into their top-10 prospects. He could be higher on the list, but many don’t see him as having much defensive value, so the Twins must hope his bat is what powers him throughout his professional career. His 2019 season was his lone full season at the collegiate level, because he was a draft eligible sophomore. He posted a 1.149 OPS that year and he might have been on track for an even better season in 2019. In 19 games during the 2020 season, Sabato had a .478 OBP and a .708 SLG with seven home runs and six doubles. This year’s draft certainly had some quirks with only five rounds and the first round saw a lot of teams select college players because they have a longer track record. Sabato is going to hit no matter what level he plays at and the Twins took him as a safe pick with plenty of upside. 8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 2019 MiLB Stats (AAA): 5-4, 4.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 119 K, 25 BB, 96.1 IP 2019 MLB Stats: 3-2, 6.18 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 31 K, 10 BB, 27.2 IP It might seem like Thorpe has been around the Twins organization for ages, especially since Minnesota signed him all the way back in 2012. He put up strong numbers in his first two professional seasons but missed all of 2015 and 2016 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Luckily, Thorpe was young enough where he was still back on the mound by his age-21 season and he spent the last two seasons moving through the upper levels of the minors. Across 114 innings at Double-A, he posted a 3.71 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a 10.9 K/9. His WHIP is over four points lower in 118 innings and his strikeout rate is higher (11.1 K/9). Thorpe was primed for a breakout season in 2020 with many in spring training were discussing the club’s high hopes for the southpaw. While his ERA and WHIP were high last season, he continued to strikeout batters and that’s something Twins fans can be excited about. He could be part of the Twins pitching staff for most of the next decade. 7. Keoni Cavaco, SS 2019 MiLB Stats (RK): .172/.217/.253, 1 HR, 4 2B, 35 K, 4 BB, 25 G One year ago, the Twins took Cavaco with the 13th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. He was seen as a player that rose on team’s draft boards in the months and weeks leading into the draft. A player like him might not have even been taken in 2020 because of the limitations on scouting and the shortened high school season. He didn’t see the same type of competition as other top high school players because he wasn’t invited to a lot of the showcase events leading into his senior season. Still, his tool set was hard for the Twins to ignore. His arm strength and speed are currently his two best tools. There were some obvious struggles at the plate last season, but he has plenty of power potential. As he continues getting experience against tougher competition, many believe he will be able to showcase the skills that put him on team’s draft radars. The Twins will give him every opportunity to stick at shortstop, but he has shown the ability to play third base during his amateur career. 6. Ryan Jeffers, C 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .264/.341/.421, 14 HR, 16 2B, 83 K, 37 BB, 103 G Mitch Garver might not want to look too closely in his rearview mirror because Jeffers might be closer to the big leagues than most would think. Minnesota took Jeffers in the second round back in 2018 and many viewed him as a bat-only player. He has refined his defense behind the plate since joining the Twins and his bat has certainly lived up to the hype he was receiving going into the draft. In his pro debut, Jeffers hit .344/.444/.502 with 24 extra-base hits in 64 games between the E-Twins and Cedar Rapids. Last season he spent almost 80 games in Fort Myers and hit double digits in home runs and doubles. He finished the year with 24 games in the Southern League and saw his OPS rise 124 points over what he compiled in the Florida State League. At 23-years old, he is the Twins catcher of the future and that future might not be that far away. PREVIOUS TOP-20 POSTS — Prospects 16-20 — Prospects 11-15 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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In the aftermath this year's MLB Draft, it can be fun to reevaluate where an organization stacks up in the prospect department. For better or worse, franchises can make it or break it with their selections in the draft. It's also important for teams to be able to build from within to help manage the bottom line. Minnesota's top prospect list is littered with highly drafted players over the last handful of years. Players like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have all been taken with first-round picks. Ideally, these players will form the nucleus of Minnesota's next championship winning club.15. Edwar Colina, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA, AAA): 8-2, 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 102 K, 32 BB, 97.1 IP Colina signed with the Twins back in 2015 and he has been slowly working his way through the Twins system. He really hit his stride over the last two seasons as he started to compete in full season leagues. In the 2018 campaign, he posted a 2.63 ERA and a 106 to 53 strikeout to walk ratio at Low- and High-A. Last season, he played at three different levels and his time at High- and Double-A was outstanding. He only allowed 23 earned runs in nearly 93 innings (2.23 ERA) and he struck out more than a batter per inning. On the mound, Colina is stocky and his fastball can give hitters nightmares. He’s been clocked at over 100 mph, but he typically sits in the mid- to high-90s. His best secondary pitch is his change-up, but he is going to need to continue to improve his breaking pitches as he moves through the higher levels of the minors. 14. Wander Javier, SS 2019 MiLB Stats (A): .177/.278/.323, 11 HR, 9 2B, 116 K, 35 BB, 80 G Back in 2015, Javier was widely considered one of the best prospects in the international class and the Twins signed him for $4 million. Unfortunately, injures have cost Javier parts of multiple professional seasons. He was limited to eight games during his pro-debut because of a hamstring injury. Then in 2018, he suffered a shoulder injury and missed the entire season. Even with the injuries, he has all the tools to be considered one of the team’s top prospects. Javier was back on the field in 2019 after missing all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. It was his first taste of a full-season league and things didn’t exactly go perfectly. He struck out over 27% of the time but there were some bright spots amid a rough season. From July 15 to the end of the season, Javier compiled a .428 SLG and a .738 OPS. Nine of his 11 home runs and seven of his nine doubles were during this stretch. 13. Matt Canterino, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (RK, A): 1-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 31 K, 8 BB, 25.0 IP The Twins took Canterino in the second-round last season after a strong junior season at Rice University. He was a three-year starter at the school, and he pitched 94 innings or more in every season. In his final collegiate season, he posted a 2.81 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 121 to 23 strikeout to walk ratio. Throughout his collegiate career, he controlled the strike zone by allowing less than 3 walks per nine innings and striking out nearly 11 batters per nine. Because of his college workload, Canterino saw limited action after signing with the Twins as he made seven regular season starts and one postseason start. His college experience really showed up as he struck out over 11 batters per nine innings. It would have been exciting to see what he could have done in a full minor league season, but that will have to wait until 2021. 12. Brent Rooker, OF/1B 2019 MiLB Stats (AAA): .282/.399/.530, 14 HR, 16 2B, 36 BB, 95 K, 67 G Rooker was the 35th overall pick back in 2017, the first draft under the new Twins front office regime. In three collegiate seasons, Rooker destroyed baseballs by hitting .344/.428/.660. Yes, that is a 1.088 OPS over three seasons and he posted a 1.306 OPS during his final season. The Twins were hoping for more of the same from Rooker as he started his professional career. He didn’t disappoint during his first taste of pro-ball as he posted a .930 OPS with Elizabethton and Fort Myers. This included 29 extra-base hits in 62 games. He spent all of 2018 at Double-A and hit .254/.333/.465 with 32 doubles and 22 home runs in 130 games. He missed some time in 2019 with a wrist injury but he was still able to post some strong offensive numbers. If there is a 2020 season, there is a chance Rooker makes his debut. 11. Blayne Enlow, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+): 8-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 95 K, 38 BB, 110.2 IP Like Rooker, Enlow was part of the strong draft class back in 2017. The Louisiana native had committed to play at LSU, but the Twins were able to sign him after taking him in the third round. During his professional debut, he made six appearances with the GCL Twins and posted a 1.33 ERA with 19 strikeouts and 4 walks in 20.1 innings. During the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids, he was almost three years younger than the average age of the competition. He compiled a 3.26 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He started 2019 back in Cedar Rapids and saw some struggles as he allowed 21 earned runs in 41.1 innings. There were some positive signs as he struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings. The Twins were aggressive with him and promoted him to Fort Myers where he had a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with a 51 to 23 strikeout to walk ratio. If Enlow had gone to college, he’d still be pitching for LSU, so he has time to develop into the pitcher many thought he could be. Stop back in the coming days to see who completes the top-20 list. PREVIOUS TOP-20 POSTS — Prospects 16-20 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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15. Edwar Colina, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA, AAA): 8-2, 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 102 K, 32 BB, 97.1 IP Colina signed with the Twins back in 2015 and he has been slowly working his way through the Twins system. He really hit his stride over the last two seasons as he started to compete in full season leagues. In the 2018 campaign, he posted a 2.63 ERA and a 106 to 53 strikeout to walk ratio at Low- and High-A. Last season, he played at three different levels and his time at High- and Double-A was outstanding. He only allowed 23 earned runs in nearly 93 innings (2.23 ERA) and he struck out more than a batter per inning. On the mound, Colina is stocky and his fastball can give hitters nightmares. He’s been clocked at over 100 mph, but he typically sits in the mid- to high-90s. His best secondary pitch is his change-up, but he is going to need to continue to improve his breaking pitches as he moves through the higher levels of the minors. 14. Wander Javier, SS 2019 MiLB Stats (A): .177/.278/.323, 11 HR, 9 2B, 116 K, 35 BB, 80 G Back in 2015, Javier was widely considered one of the best prospects in the international class and the Twins signed him for $4 million. Unfortunately, injures have cost Javier parts of multiple professional seasons. He was limited to eight games during his pro-debut because of a hamstring injury. Then in 2018, he suffered a shoulder injury and missed the entire season. Even with the injuries, he has all the tools to be considered one of the team’s top prospects. Javier was back on the field in 2019 after missing all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. It was his first taste of a full-season league and things didn’t exactly go perfectly. He struck out over 27% of the time but there were some bright spots amid a rough season. From July 15 to the end of the season, Javier compiled a .428 SLG and a .738 OPS. Nine of his 11 home runs and seven of his nine doubles were during this stretch. 13. Matt Canterino, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (RK, A): 1-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 31 K, 8 BB, 25.0 IP The Twins took Canterino in the second-round last season after a strong junior season at Rice University. He was a three-year starter at the school, and he pitched 94 innings or more in every season. In his final collegiate season, he posted a 2.81 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 121 to 23 strikeout to walk ratio. Throughout his collegiate career, he controlled the strike zone by allowing less than 3 walks per nine innings and striking out nearly 11 batters per nine. Because of his college workload, Canterino saw limited action after signing with the Twins as he made seven regular season starts and one postseason start. His college experience really showed up as he struck out over 11 batters per nine innings. It would have been exciting to see what he could have done in a full minor league season, but that will have to wait until 2021. 12. Brent Rooker, OF/1B 2019 MiLB Stats (AAA): .282/.399/.530, 14 HR, 16 2B, 36 BB, 95 K, 67 G Rooker was the 35th overall pick back in 2017, the first draft under the new Twins front office regime. In three collegiate seasons, Rooker destroyed baseballs by hitting .344/.428/.660. Yes, that is a 1.088 OPS over three seasons and he posted a 1.306 OPS during his final season. The Twins were hoping for more of the same from Rooker as he started his professional career. He didn’t disappoint during his first taste of pro-ball as he posted a .930 OPS with Elizabethton and Fort Myers. This included 29 extra-base hits in 62 games. He spent all of 2018 at Double-A and hit .254/.333/.465 with 32 doubles and 22 home runs in 130 games. He missed some time in 2019 with a wrist injury but he was still able to post some strong offensive numbers. If there is a 2020 season, there is a chance Rooker makes his debut. 11. Blayne Enlow, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+): 8-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 95 K, 38 BB, 110.2 IP Like Rooker, Enlow was part of the strong draft class back in 2017. The Louisiana native had committed to play at LSU, but the Twins were able to sign him after taking him in the third round. During his professional debut, he made six appearances with the GCL Twins and posted a 1.33 ERA with 19 strikeouts and 4 walks in 20.1 innings. During the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids, he was almost three years younger than the average age of the competition. He compiled a 3.26 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He started 2019 back in Cedar Rapids and saw some struggles as he allowed 21 earned runs in 41.1 innings. There were some positive signs as he struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings. The Twins were aggressive with him and promoted him to Fort Myers where he had a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with a 51 to 23 strikeout to walk ratio. If Enlow had gone to college, he’d still be pitching for LSU, so he has time to develop into the pitcher many thought he could be. Stop back in the coming days to see who completes the top-20 list. PREVIOUS TOP-20 POSTS — Prospects 16-20 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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In the aftermath this year's MLB Draft, it can be fun to reevaluate where an organization stacks up in the prospect department. For better or worse, franchises can make it or break it with their selections in the draft. It's also important for teams to be able to build from within to help manage the bottom line. Minnesota's top prospect list is littered with highly drafted players over the last handful of years. Players like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have all been taken with first-round picks. Ideally, these players will form the nucleus of Minnesota's next championship winning club.20. Randy Dobnak, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA, AAA): 12-4, 2.07 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 109 K, 28 BB, 135.0 IP 2019 MLB Stats: 2-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 23 K, 5 BB, 28.1 IP Dobnak went on a tremendous ride last season with his first pitches of the year coming with the Fort Myers Miracle and his last pitches coming at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs. While Dobnak posted fantastic numbers last season, few expect him be the ace of a pitching staff. He has the potential to be a solid back end of the rotation pitcher for multiple years. His spot in the 2020 rotation wasn’t a guarantee so it will be interesting to see how he is used this year, especially with little chance of a minor league season occurring. His pitch mix includes four pitches with his sinker being used over 36% of the time. He also mixes in a changeup, curve, and four seamer. According to MLB’s Baseball Savant, his fastball spin was in the third percental when compared to the rest of baseball. His fastball velocity and curve spin also ranked in the 44th percentile or lower. Still, batters were only able to manage to barrel up the ball 2.3% of the time and his average exit velocity was 88.6. 19. Cole Sands, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+, AA): 7-3, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 108 K, 19 BB, 97.1 IP Much like Dobnak, Sands made stops at three different minor league levels in 2019 where he was younger than the average age of the competition. His most impressive stop was in the Florida State League where he posted a 2.25 ERA and a 53 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio in 52 IP. He utilizes a fastball in the low-90s but there are times he can rear back and reach the mid-90s. His curveball and change-up are both good pitches that help to separate him from other starters in the organization. In his professional debut, Sands put up numbers that were far superior than anything he was able to compile as a three-year starter in college. His lowest ERA for any college season was 4.13 and he had a 4.73 ERA for his entire collegiate career. There were some good peripheral numbers that might have stood out to the Twins front office. Over his final two college seasons, he struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings and his WHIP dropped in every season. 18. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .252/.302/.369, 8 HR, 26 2B, 54 K, 24 BB, 119 G Miranda played all but one regular season game in the Florida State League during 2019. He started off slow but ended the year on quite the offense run. Over his final 162 plate appearances, he hit .295/.333/.436 with 13 extra-base hits and almost as many walks (8) as strikeouts (10). Minnesota thought highly enough about him to send him to Pensacola for the playoffs where he compiled a .955 OPS in five postseason games. Defensively, he played more time at third base last season than any other season. Last season was the first time since his professional debut that he failed to hit double-digits in home runs. If he continues to add power, he could become quite the weapon at third base. He almost never strikes out and he has the defensive flexibility to play other infield positions as well. 17. Misael Urbina, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (FRK): .279/.382/.443, 2 HR, 14 2B, 5 3B, 19 SB, 23 BB, 14 K, 50 G Urbina signed for a boatload of cash ($2.75 million) back during the 2018 international signing period. He made his professional debut in 2019 and showed many of the skills that made him one of the top prospects in that signing class. He had 21 extra-base hits and 19 steals in 27 attempts. Also, he showed an advanced approach at the plate with more walks (23) than strikeouts (14). He can play all over the outfield, but 34 of his 44 defensive appearances came in center field. His speed will help him to stick in center field and he has the other tools to make himself a defensive weapon. As Twins fans have seen with Byron Buxton, speed can help to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. With more experience, he should also become better at stealing a higher percentage of bases. 16. Matt Wallner, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (RK, A): .258/.357/.452, 8 HR, 21 2B, 80 K, 24 BB, 65 G The Twins selected Wallner with the 39th overall pick in last year’s draft and he quickly made his presence known in the organization. In June and July, he hit .289/.392/.465 with 18 home runs in 37 games. He tired a little down the stretch by hitting .218/.312/.436 over the season’s final 28 games which included a dozen games in Cedar Rapids. Wallner was set to go to college at the University of North Dakota, but they cut their baseball program, and this might have actually helped him in the long run. He decided to play at Southern Mississippi and this likely allowed him to play a higher level of competition and for more scouts to put their eyes on him. His junior year really put him on a lot of team’s draft radars (if he wasn’t already there). In those 61 games, he posted a 1.127 OPS with 23 home runs. Stop back in the coming days to see who completes the top-20 list. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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20. Randy Dobnak, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA, AAA): 12-4, 2.07 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 109 K, 28 BB, 135.0 IP 2019 MLB Stats: 2-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 23 K, 5 BB, 28.1 IP Dobnak went on a tremendous ride last season with his first pitches of the year coming with the Fort Myers Miracle and his last pitches coming at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs. While Dobnak posted fantastic numbers last season, few expect him be the ace of a pitching staff. He has the potential to be a solid back end of the rotation pitcher for multiple years. His spot in the 2020 rotation wasn’t a guarantee so it will be interesting to see how he is used this year, especially with little chance of a minor league season occurring. His pitch mix includes four pitches with his sinker being used over 36% of the time. He also mixes in a changeup, curve, and four seamer. According to MLB’s Baseball Savant, his fastball spin was in the third percental when compared to the rest of baseball. His fastball velocity and curve spin also ranked in the 44th percentile or lower. Still, batters were only able to manage to barrel up the ball 2.3% of the time and his average exit velocity was 88.6. 19. Cole Sands, RHP 2019 MiLB Stats (A, A+, AA): 7-3, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 108 K, 19 BB, 97.1 IP Much like Dobnak, Sands made stops at three different minor league levels in 2019 where he was younger than the average age of the competition. His most impressive stop was in the Florida State League where he posted a 2.25 ERA and a 53 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio in 52 IP. He utilizes a fastball in the low-90s but there are times he can rear back and reach the mid-90s. His curveball and change-up are both good pitches that help to separate him from other starters in the organization. In his professional debut, Sands put up numbers that were far superior than anything he was able to compile as a three-year starter in college. His lowest ERA for any college season was 4.13 and he had a 4.73 ERA for his entire collegiate career. There were some good peripheral numbers that might have stood out to the Twins front office. Over his final two college seasons, he struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings and his WHIP dropped in every season. 18. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 2019 MiLB Stats (A+, AA): .252/.302/.369, 8 HR, 26 2B, 54 K, 24 BB, 119 G Miranda played all but one regular season game in the Florida State League during 2019. He started off slow but ended the year on quite the offense run. Over his final 162 plate appearances, he hit .295/.333/.436 with 13 extra-base hits and almost as many walks (8) as strikeouts (10). Minnesota thought highly enough about him to send him to Pensacola for the playoffs where he compiled a .955 OPS in five postseason games. Defensively, he played more time at third base last season than any other season. Last season was the first time since his professional debut that he failed to hit double-digits in home runs. If he continues to add power, he could become quite the weapon at third base. He almost never strikes out and he has the defensive flexibility to play other infield positions as well. 17. Misael Urbina, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (FRK): .279/.382/.443, 2 HR, 14 2B, 5 3B, 19 SB, 23 BB, 14 K, 50 G Urbina signed for a boatload of cash ($2.75 million) back during the 2018 international signing period. He made his professional debut in 2019 and showed many of the skills that made him one of the top prospects in that signing class. He had 21 extra-base hits and 19 steals in 27 attempts. Also, he showed an advanced approach at the plate with more walks (23) than strikeouts (14). He can play all over the outfield, but 34 of his 44 defensive appearances came in center field. His speed will help him to stick in center field and he has the other tools to make himself a defensive weapon. As Twins fans have seen with Byron Buxton, speed can help to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. With more experience, he should also become better at stealing a higher percentage of bases. 16. Matt Wallner, OF 2019 MiLB Stats (RK, A): .258/.357/.452, 8 HR, 21 2B, 80 K, 24 BB, 65 G The Twins selected Wallner with the 39th overall pick in last year’s draft and he quickly made his presence known in the organization. In June and July, he hit .289/.392/.465 with 18 home runs in 37 games. He tired a little down the stretch by hitting .218/.312/.436 over the season’s final 28 games which included a dozen games in Cedar Rapids. Wallner was set to go to college at the University of North Dakota, but they cut their baseball program, and this might have actually helped him in the long run. He decided to play at Southern Mississippi and this likely allowed him to play a higher level of competition and for more scouts to put their eyes on him. His junior year really put him on a lot of team’s draft radars (if he wasn’t already there). In those 61 games, he posted a 1.127 OPS with 23 home runs. Stop back in the coming days to see who completes the top-20 list. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have followed certain draft trends since taking over as the architects of the Twins franchise. On Wednesday, those trends continued as the Twins added another powerful bat from the college ranks. Would the Twins follow any other trends with the second-round pick?Soularie is one of the better college hitters in the draft. He is a bat first guy without a true defensive position which follows Minnesota’s first round pick that fits the same mold. The current Twins regime has also surprised with recent second round picks like Ryan Jeffers and Landon Leach. Jeffers is now one of the team’s top-10 prospects and they are hoping for more of the same with Soularie. He entered his junior season at Tennessee and he was named a Preseason All-SEC First Team member and a D1Baseball.com Preseason First Team All-American. In 2019, he had a .357 batting average with 11 home runs and 13 doubles. He also posted a strong 39 to 37 strike out to walk ratio. During 16 games in 2020, he went 16-for-60 with five home runs and a double. Since joining the Volunteers, he has clearly taken some steps in the right direction. He posted some great numbers during his sophomore season and he looked set-up for a great junior campaign. He slugged five home runs in 16 games before the college season was cut short because of COVID-19. He didn't rank inside any top-100 lists, but the current Twins regime might have earned the benefit of the doubt about stealing Jeffers at this point two years ago. Soularie is a tight-handed-hitting corner outfielder who was among the SEC's top three in AVG, OBP, and SLG last season. Defensively, the Twins drafted Soularie as an outfielder, but he can also play some second base. According to Twins Scouting Director Sean Johnson, that's a possibility too. What are your thoughts on their second-round pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article
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Twins Select Alerick Soularie with the 59th Overall Pick
Cody Christie posted an article in Minor Leagues
Soularie is one of the better college hitters in the draft. He is a bat first guy without a true defensive position which follows Minnesota’s first round pick that fits the same mold. The current Twins regime has also surprised with recent second round picks like Ryan Jeffers and Landon Leach. Jeffers is now one of the team’s top-10 prospects and they are hoping for more of the same with Soularie. https://twitter.com/twinsdaily/status/1271203118513115137?s=20 He entered his junior season at Tennessee and he was named a Preseason All-SEC First Team member and a D1Baseball.com Preseason First Team All-American. In 2019, he had a .357 batting average with 11 home runs and 13 doubles. He also posted a strong 39 to 37 strike out to walk ratio. During 16 games in 2020, he went 16-for-60 with five home runs and a double. Since joining the Volunteers, he has clearly taken some steps in the right direction. He posted some great numbers during his sophomore season and he looked set-up for a great junior campaign. He slugged five home runs in 16 games before the college season was cut short because of COVID-19. https://twitter.com/TwinsDingers/status/1271203812485804032?s=20 He didn't rank inside any top-100 lists, but the current Twins regime might have earned the benefit of the doubt about stealing Jeffers at this point two years ago. Soularie is a tight-handed-hitting corner outfielder who was among the SEC's top three in AVG, OBP, and SLG last season. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1271213150499680258?s=20 Defensively, the Twins drafted Soularie as an outfielder, but he can also play some second base. According to Twins Scouting Director Sean Johnson, that's a possibility too. What are your thoughts on their second-round pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. -
Mid-market teams like the Twins must use the draft to their full advantage every year and find talent that can be developed. The team rarely spends on big name free agents, so drafting and developing are going to be the organization’s main source of talent. This year’s MLB Draft is certainly going to be quirky with it being limited to five rounds. So how good of a Twins team can you build using only players taken after the fifth round?FanGraphs went through this exercise while using players drafted (and signed) in the last decade. For the Twins version, it was a little more critical to go further back throughout the team’s history. Spoiler alert... There haven't been that many good starting pitchers in team history. Players were only eligible if they were drafted by the Twins after the fifth round and they had to sign with the club. As the original article said, “To illustrate how much talent is at stake, let’s build some teams of players drafted in rounds that don’t exist in this year’s draft.” Catcher: Mitch Garver (9th Round) Garver was the back-up catcher on the FanGraphs roster, which seems like a slight towards the reigning AL Silver Slugger winner. Their predicting system says that Garver’s 1.8 WAR is just under the 1.9 WAR projected for Tucker Barnhart. Either way, Garver is an easy pick when it comes to the best late round catcher in Twins history. First Base: Kent Hrbek (17th Round) The Twins got lucky by taking a hometown slugger who turned out to be one of the best hitters in team history. He was a key cog in both the team’s World Series titles and he has been a fixture in the Twin Cities since his retirement. Outside of Harmon Killebrew, Hrbek is arguably the best first baseman to ever suit up for the Twins. Second Base: Brian Dozier (8th Round) Dozier was a late bloomer as he didn’t debut until he was 25-years old. He became a fan favorite on some pretty bad Twins teams. From 2015-2017, he averaged 35 home runs including one season with 42 long balls. He won a Gold Glove and even made an All-Star appearance. Third Base: Corey Koskie (26th Round) Koskie was part of a key group of Twins that helped bring the team back from the brink of contraction. Outside of Gary Gaetti, Koskie is the next best third baseman in team history. He played seven years for the Twins and hit .280/.373/.462 with 101 home runs and 180 doubles. His defense at third was also Gold Glove caliber. Shortstop: Jeff Reboulet (10th Round) In five years with the Twins, Reboulet got on base over 33% of the time. He played decent defense at shortstop but having Koskie on the same side of the infield could take some pressure off him. He played on some bad Twins teams in the early 1990’s and went on to have a 12-year big league career. Outfield: Matt Lawton (13th Round), Steve Braun (10th Round), Lyman Bostock (26th Round) Lawton would become a two-time All Star in his career and one of those seasons was with the Twins. That year, he hit .305/.405/.460 with 13 home runs and 44 doubles, a career high. Braun and Bostock might not be as well known to younger Twins fans. Braun played for the Twins from 1971-1976 and had a .757 OPS. Bostock played four seasons at the big-league level and three of them were in Minnesota. For his career, he hit .311/.365/.427 while averaging over 25 doubles per season. From 1976-1978, only Rod Carew and Dave Parker hit for a higher batting average than Bostock. He was tragically murdered near the end of the 1978 season. DH: Jason Kubel (12th Round) During his minor league career, Kubel looked like he might be on a path to join Mauer and Morneau as a middle of the order bat. Baseball America ranked him as the 17th best prospect on their top-100 list entering the 2005 season. A devastating knee injury slowed his prospect status, but he went on to have a decent 10-year career as a big leaguer. Bench: Steve Lombardozzi (9th Round), Rob Wilfong (13th Round), Danny Valencia (19th Round), Rick Dempsey (15th Round) Lombardozzi was one of the regular contributors on the team’s run to the 1987 World Series, which happened to be his best big-league season. Wilfong’s best season were in a Twins uniform as he hit .262/.322/.360. Valencia finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a .799 OPS back in 2010. Dempsey was a catcher for 24 years at the big-league level and he played until he was 42-years old. He seemed like a natural choice to be the back-up catcher behind Garver. Rotation: Brad Radke (8th), Nick Blackburn (29th), Pat Mahomes (6th), Mark Guthrie (7th), Darrell Jackson (9th) This isn’t exactly a rotation that is destined for greatness. Brad Radke is the lone bright spot and it’s tough to consider that Nick Blackburn might be the second-best pitcher in the rotation. Luckily, the bullpen includes some of the top relief pitchers in team history, so the manager could have the starter go once through the line-up and hand the game over to the bullpen. Bullpen: Pat Neshek (6th), Latroy Hawkins (7th), Taylor Rogers (11th), Eddie Guardado (21st), Mike Trombley (14th), AJ Achter (46th), JC Romero (21st) Since the starters are limited, it’s nice to look at all the options available in the bullpen. Neshek, Hawkins and Romero could be used in the middle innings leading into a late inning tandem of Rogers and Guardado. As Twins fans saw last year, Rogers can be used for multiple innings with plenty of effectiveness. Sign me up for this bullpen. How do you feel like this team would do? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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FanGraphs went through this exercise while using players drafted (and signed) in the last decade. For the Twins version, it was a little more critical to go further back throughout the team’s history. Spoiler alert... There haven't been that many good starting pitchers in team history. Players were only eligible if they were drafted by the Twins after the fifth round and they had to sign with the club. As the original article said, “To illustrate how much talent is at stake, let’s build some teams of players drafted in rounds that don’t exist in this year’s draft.” Catcher: Mitch Garver (9th Round) Garver was the back-up catcher on the FanGraphs roster, which seems like a slight towards the reigning AL Silver Slugger winner. Their predicting system says that Garver’s 1.8 WAR is just under the 1.9 WAR projected for Tucker Barnhart. Either way, Garver is an easy pick when it comes to the best late round catcher in Twins history. First Base: Kent Hrbek (17th Round) The Twins got lucky by taking a hometown slugger who turned out to be one of the best hitters in team history. He was a key cog in both the team’s World Series titles and he has been a fixture in the Twin Cities since his retirement. Outside of Harmon Killebrew, Hrbek is arguably the best first baseman to ever suit up for the Twins. Second Base: Brian Dozier (8th Round) Dozier was a late bloomer as he didn’t debut until he was 25-years old. He became a fan favorite on some pretty bad Twins teams. From 2015-2017, he averaged 35 home runs including one season with 42 long balls. He won a Gold Glove and even made an All-Star appearance. Third Base: Corey Koskie (26th Round) Koskie was part of a key group of Twins that helped bring the team back from the brink of contraction. Outside of Gary Gaetti, Koskie is the next best third baseman in team history. He played seven years for the Twins and hit .280/.373/.462 with 101 home runs and 180 doubles. His defense at third was also Gold Glove caliber. Shortstop: Jeff Reboulet (10th Round) In five years with the Twins, Reboulet got on base over 33% of the time. He played decent defense at shortstop but having Koskie on the same side of the infield could take some pressure off him. He played on some bad Twins teams in the early 1990’s and went on to have a 12-year big league career. Outfield: Matt Lawton (13th Round), Steve Braun (10th Round), Lyman Bostock (26th Round) Lawton would become a two-time All Star in his career and one of those seasons was with the Twins. That year, he hit .305/.405/.460 with 13 home runs and 44 doubles, a career high. Braun and Bostock might not be as well known to younger Twins fans. Braun played for the Twins from 1971-1976 and had a .757 OPS. Bostock played four seasons at the big-league level and three of them were in Minnesota. For his career, he hit .311/.365/.427 while averaging over 25 doubles per season. From 1976-1978, only Rod Carew and Dave Parker hit for a higher batting average than Bostock. He was tragically murdered near the end of the 1978 season. DH: Jason Kubel (12th Round) During his minor league career, Kubel looked like he might be on a path to join Mauer and Morneau as a middle of the order bat. Baseball America ranked him as the 17th best prospect on their top-100 list entering the 2005 season. A devastating knee injury slowed his prospect status, but he went on to have a decent 10-year career as a big leaguer. Bench: Steve Lombardozzi (9th Round), Rob Wilfong (13th Round), Danny Valencia (19th Round), Rick Dempsey (15th Round) Lombardozzi was one of the regular contributors on the team’s run to the 1987 World Series, which happened to be his best big-league season. Wilfong’s best season were in a Twins uniform as he hit .262/.322/.360. Valencia finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a .799 OPS back in 2010. Dempsey was a catcher for 24 years at the big-league level and he played until he was 42-years old. He seemed like a natural choice to be the back-up catcher behind Garver. Rotation: Brad Radke (8th), Nick Blackburn (29th), Pat Mahomes (6th), Mark Guthrie (7th), Darrell Jackson (9th) This isn’t exactly a rotation that is destined for greatness. Brad Radke is the lone bright spot and it’s tough to consider that Nick Blackburn might be the second-best pitcher in the rotation. Luckily, the bullpen includes some of the top relief pitchers in team history, so the manager could have the starter go once through the line-up and hand the game over to the bullpen. Bullpen: Pat Neshek (6th), Latroy Hawkins (7th), Taylor Rogers (11th), Eddie Guardado (21st), Mike Trombley (14th), AJ Achter (46th), JC Romero (21st) Since the starters are limited, it’s nice to look at all the options available in the bullpen. Neshek, Hawkins and Romero could be used in the middle innings leading into a late inning tandem of Rogers and Guardado. As Twins fans saw last year, Rogers can be used for multiple innings with plenty of effectiveness. Sign me up for this bullpen. How do you feel like this team would do? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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It’s tough to make it to the big leagues no matter how good a player is during their amateur career. Every team drafts players in the first round with the hope of them reaching their highest potential. Unfortunately, only a small percentage can live up to the lofty expectations placed upon them. Players fizzle out, but the Twins struck out for three straight years as the team was trying to rebuild.Minnesota had a decent run of first round picks in the early 1990s. Torii Hunter, Todd Walker, Mark Redman and Michael Cuddyer were all drafted in consecutive years leading into the three picks discussed below. All those players would make it to the big leagues and there are multiple All-Stars on the list. However, Minnesota’s luck ran out from there. Ryan Mills (1998, 6th overall) Ryan Mills had been a 13th round pick out of high school by the Yankees, but he opted to head to Arizona State and he greatly improved his draft stock. He played every professional inning with the Twins organization, but he failed to get out of Triple-A. He was the only top-10 pick that year not to make the big leagues. Other players taken later in the first round included Carlos Pena (25.5 WAR), Jeff Weaver (15.2 WAR), CC Sabathia (62.5 WAR) and Aaron Rowand (20.9 WAR). BJ Garbe (1999, 5th overall) One year after the Twins took Mills, BJ Garbe was the team’s first round pick and the team missed out for the second year in a row. Josh Hamilton and Josh Beckett were the first two players off the board, but some other well-known big leaguers were taken later in the first round. The Twins missed out on Barry Zito (31.9 WAR), Ben Sheets (23.2 WAR), Alex Rios (27.3 WAR) and Brian Roberts (29.5 WAR). Garbe played for three different organizations and never made it past Double-A. By the age of 25, he’d be out of baseball. Adam Johnson (2000, 2nd overall) Adam Johnson might be the biggest swing and a miss in team history. Minnesota saw the Marlins take Adrian Gonzalez with the first overall pick before they were on the clock. There was plenty of other strong talent left on the board including Rocco Baldelli (10.2 WAR), Chase Utley (64.4 WAR) and Adam Wainwright (40.5 WAR). Johnson would make his big league debut in 2001, just one year after being drafted. He would only make nine appearances with the Twins and he allowed 30 earned runs in 26.1 innings. Johnson was out of affiliated baseball at age-26 and his professional career was over before he turned 30. Minnesota’s first round ineptitude improved after the Johnson debacle. Joe Mauer was selected first overall in 2001, Denard Span was taken in 2002, Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins were taken in 2004, and Matt Garza was taken in 2005. While these picks all worked out well, one must wonder how the future of the franchise would have changed with different picks from 1998-2000. Which player was the biggest bust? Which player do you wish the Twins would have drafted instead of these players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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First Round Busts: The Twins Struck Out Three Consecutive Years
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Minnesota had a decent run of first round picks in the early 1990s. Torii Hunter, Todd Walker, Mark Redman and Michael Cuddyer were all drafted in consecutive years leading into the three picks discussed below. All those players would make it to the big leagues and there are multiple All-Stars on the list. However, Minnesota’s luck ran out from there. Ryan Mills (1998, 6th overall) Ryan Mills had been a 13th round pick out of high school by the Yankees, but he opted to head to Arizona State and he greatly improved his draft stock. He played every professional inning with the Twins organization, but he failed to get out of Triple-A. He was the only top-10 pick that year not to make the big leagues. Other players taken later in the first round included Carlos Pena (25.5 WAR), Jeff Weaver (15.2 WAR), CC Sabathia (62.5 WAR) and Aaron Rowand (20.9 WAR). BJ Garbe (1999, 5th overall) One year after the Twins took Mills, BJ Garbe was the team’s first round pick and the team missed out for the second year in a row. Josh Hamilton and Josh Beckett were the first two players off the board, but some other well-known big leaguers were taken later in the first round. The Twins missed out on Barry Zito (31.9 WAR), Ben Sheets (23.2 WAR), Alex Rios (27.3 WAR) and Brian Roberts (29.5 WAR). Garbe played for three different organizations and never made it past Double-A. By the age of 25, he’d be out of baseball. Adam Johnson (2000, 2nd overall) Adam Johnson might be the biggest swing and a miss in team history. Minnesota saw the Marlins take Adrian Gonzalez with the first overall pick before they were on the clock. There was plenty of other strong talent left on the board including Rocco Baldelli (10.2 WAR), Chase Utley (64.4 WAR) and Adam Wainwright (40.5 WAR). Johnson would make his big league debut in 2001, just one year after being drafted. He would only make nine appearances with the Twins and he allowed 30 earned runs in 26.1 innings. Johnson was out of affiliated baseball at age-26 and his professional career was over before he turned 30. Minnesota’s first round ineptitude improved after the Johnson debacle. Joe Mauer was selected first overall in 2001, Denard Span was taken in 2002, Trevor Plouffe and Glen Perkins were taken in 2004, and Matt Garza was taken in 2005. While these picks all worked out well, one must wonder how the future of the franchise would have changed with different picks from 1998-2000. Which player was the biggest bust? Which player do you wish the Twins would have drafted instead of these players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email- 13 comments
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This week’s MLB Draft is certainly going to have a different look and feel. The draft will be limited to five rounds and many of the players being selected played little or no spring season due to the on-going pandemic. Because of their strong finish last season, the Twins will have the 27th overall pick in the first round. How has the club fared in recent drafts with their first-round selections?2019: Keoni Cavaco, SS (13th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 8 2019 Season (Rookie): .172/.217/.253 (.470 OPS), HR, 4 2B, 35 K Cavaco flew up draft boards in the weeks and months leading up to the draft and the Twins saw enough in him to make him their first-round pick. He clearly had some struggles in his first professional season as he struck out in over 40% of his at-bats. His athleticism and other tools are hard to ignore, so Twins fans might have to be patient with him as he moves through the system. 2018: Trevor Larnach, OF (20th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 3 2019 Season (A+/AA): .309/.384/.458 (.842 OPS), 13 HR, 30 2B, 124 K Larnach was drafted in the midst of a tremendous College World Series run that saw him hit a walk-off home run that helped Oregon State win the championship. Last season was a breakout campaign for the former first rounder. The Twins named him their Minor League Player of the Year and he took home the same honors from Twins Daily. He would also be named the Florida State League Player of the Year and he led the Twins organization in hits (147). 2017: Royce Lewis, SS (1st overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 1 2019 Season (A+/AA): .236/.290/.371 (.661 OPS), 12 HR, 26 2B, 123 K When a team has the number one pick, it’s imperative not to miss on the player. Lewis had some struggles last season with his swing and there are questions about his long-term defensive position. Following the season, he went to the Arizona Fall League and put some of those concerns to rest as he was named the league’s MVP. He is almost unanimously considered the team’s best prospect and all three major prospect rankings have him as a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. 2016: Alex Kirilloff (15th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 2 2019 Season (AA): .283/.343/.413 (.756 OPS), 9 HR, 18 2B, 76 K It was going to be hard for any player to live up to the season compiled by Kirilloff back in 2018. He was arguably one of the best hitters in all the minors that season. His 2019 campaign included multiple stints on the DL with a wrist injury and this can be a tough injury to overcome in the middle of a season. He ended the year on a tear by hitting .319/.371/.496 (.867) and he crack home runs in Pensacola’s first four playoff games. 2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: No longer in the organization The previous front office regime had hopes for Jay by taking him this high in the draft. As a hard throwing college arm, the Twins hoped to be able to turn Jay from a reliever into a starter. This experiment didn’t exactly go as planned and the Twins traded Jay last June to the Cincinnati Reds for cash. It was just announced this week that Jay was one of the players released from the Reds organization, so he is currently searching for a new organization. What do you think of Minnesota’s recent first round picks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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2019: Keoni Cavaco, SS (13th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 8 2019 Season (Rookie): .172/.217/.253 (.470 OPS), HR, 4 2B, 35 K Cavaco flew up draft boards in the weeks and months leading up to the draft and the Twins saw enough in him to make him their first-round pick. He clearly had some struggles in his first professional season as he struck out in over 40% of his at-bats. His athleticism and other tools are hard to ignore, so Twins fans might have to be patient with him as he moves through the system. 2018: Trevor Larnach, OF (20th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 3 2019 Season (A+/AA): .309/.384/.458 (.842 OPS), 13 HR, 30 2B, 124 K Larnach was drafted in the midst of a tremendous College World Series run that saw him hit a walk-off home run that helped Oregon State win the championship. Last season was a breakout campaign for the former first rounder. The Twins named him their Minor League Player of the Year and he took home the same honors from Twins Daily. He would also be named the Florida State League Player of the Year and he led the Twins organization in hits (147). 2017: Royce Lewis, SS (1st overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 1 2019 Season (A+/AA): .236/.290/.371 (.661 OPS), 12 HR, 26 2B, 123 K When a team has the number one pick, it’s imperative not to miss on the player. Lewis had some struggles last season with his swing and there are questions about his long-term defensive position. Following the season, he went to the Arizona Fall League and put some of those concerns to rest as he was named the league’s MVP. He is almost unanimously considered the team’s best prospect and all three major prospect rankings have him as a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. 2016: Alex Kirilloff (15th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: 2 2019 Season (AA): .283/.343/.413 (.756 OPS), 9 HR, 18 2B, 76 K It was going to be hard for any player to live up to the season compiled by Kirilloff back in 2018. He was arguably one of the best hitters in all the minors that season. His 2019 campaign included multiple stints on the DL with a wrist injury and this can be a tough injury to overcome in the middle of a season. He ended the year on a tear by hitting .319/.371/.496 (.867) and he crack home runs in Pensacola’s first four playoff games. 2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall) Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospect Ranking: No longer in the organization The previous front office regime had hopes for Jay by taking him this high in the draft. As a hard throwing college arm, the Twins hoped to be able to turn Jay from a reliever into a starter. This experiment didn’t exactly go as planned and the Twins traded Jay last June to the Cincinnati Reds for cash. It was just announced this week that Jay was one of the players released from the Reds organization, so he is currently searching for a new organization. What do you think of Minnesota’s recent first round picks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Minnesota Twins have one of the highest rank farm systems in all the major leagues with multiple top-100 prospects and a strong pipeline to the big leagues. With all that talent, what would happen if all these players were thrown into a six-team draft? What kind of rosters could be created? What kind of strategy would be involved? Some of the Twins Daily writers set out to answer these questions.Here is some background on the draft rules before getting into the results. There were 16 rounds in the draft with the draft order being randomly selected prior to starting. Players had to be picked at their primary position but if a player had 15 or more games at a position, they could be selected for that position as well. All players must have “prospect” or “rookie” status to be draft eligible. Positions on each team included: Catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three outfielders, a bench player/hitter, three starting pitchers, three relief pitchers, and an extra pitcher. (Please note that comments under the picks were made by the person making the selection. After reading this, be sure to also click on some of the available links on each player for more on each.) Round 1 Seth Stohs - Royce Lewis, SS #1 spot, have to go with the #1 prospect, right? Teams want to be strong up the middle, and whether Lewis plays shortstop or center field, I feel good about having him on this roster. He’ll likely hit first, second or third for me too. (The Defensive Future of Royce Lewis) (Royce Lewis Is Putting It All On Display) Steve Lein - Alex Kirilloff, 1B I'll start with the best pure hitter in the organization, and also likely one of the best in the minor leagues. I'm going to play him at 1B for now because I think impact outfielders will be easier to come by. (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Learning From Past Mistakes) (Alex Kirilloff Should Make his Twins Debut in 2020) Ted Schwerzler - Jordan Balazovic, RHSP Although I like that a clone of the second pick is available here, I think anchoring the rotation with a potential ace works out. (Have The Twins Fixed Their Velocity Problem?) (How MLB’s Delayed Start Could Impact Minnesota’s Rotation) Cody Christie - Trevor Larnach, OF I think I have the easiest pick in the draft. I’m happy with whomever Ted left for me. But please, let it be the player I want. Alex Kirilloff’s clone is available. I’ll take Trevor Larnach as the player that I think could have been the first pick in this draft and he could be the Twins best position player over the next 10 years. (Pending Prospects: Which Outfielder Will Be Called up First?) (Trevor Larnach Homers in First MLB Spring At-Bat) Jeremy Nygaard - Jhoan Duran, RHSP For me, there were five prospects in the top tier, and I was going to take whichever one fell. Getting arguably the top pitching prospect at this point is fine with me as I feel there is more position player depth than frontline pitching. (Get to Know Twins RHP Prospect Jhoan Duran) (Jhoan Duran Headlines Twins Roster Additions) Matt Braun - Ryan Jeffers, C A bit annoyed that I missed out on the guys who I believed to be truly elite, but Jeffers is no slouch. Not only will he be by far the best catching prospect available, his offense and defense both have trended upward since being drafted and he’ll look to potentially grow in the future. (Get to Know Ryan Jeffers) Round 2 Matt Braun - Lewis Thorpe, LHSP While there were a few other solid pitching options, Thorpe provides the immediate upside that few can match. His strikeout potential appears to be immense and the fact that he held his own at the major league level gives me great hope. (5 Questions with Twins Pitcher Lewis Thorpe) (What’s Next for Lewis Thorpe?) Jeremy Nygaard - Gilberto Celestino, OF I hoped that Jeffers would fall, and maybe that would have been the wiser pick at #5 considering Matt may not have taken two pitchers, but I stuck to my board. This pick was more difficult because there were a number of different trains of thought: Do I take the best prospect? Do I take the best player at a position of scarcity? At the end, though, I thought it would be smartest to take someone who could fill premium defensive (CF) and offensive (leadoff) positions. (Could Gilberto Celestino or Royce Lewis Cover Center if Byron Buxton Gets Injured?) Cody Christie - Blayne Enlow, RHSP I wanted a starting pitcher with this pick, and I’ve been high on Enlow for multiple years. I think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter. The Twins don’t have a ton of players that fit that mold and I wanted to make sure I had a player that could anchor my pitching rotation. (For Enlow and Other Minor Leaguers, “No One Is Safe” At Trade Deadline) Ted Schwerzler - Matt Canterino, RHSP Might as well stick with pitching here. Canterino was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and immediately made an impact on the pro mound. He’s got a quirky delivery, but there’s a bunch of strikeouts on the way and I think the ceiling is very high. (Matt Canterino: Pitcher and Problem Solver) (Q&A with Matt Canterino) Steve Lein - Randy Dobnak, SP This may be the first pick that surprises, but it shouldn't. Dobnak has been the most consistent starter in the Twins organization since May 16th...of 2018. In that time he has a near 2.00 ERA and hasn't given up more than 4 runs in ANY outing, from A-ball to the majors. (5 Questions with Twins Pitcher Randy Dobnak) (Randy Dobnak Is Better Than You Think) Seth Stohs - Brent Rooker, OF You love getting to draft first, but then it’s a long wait while a lot of great players and prospects are taken. I thought I would take some pitching here, but instead, I’m going to just mash. Rooker put up some great numbers for nearly two months in Rochester in 2019 (May/June) before his season came to an early end. He’s also nearly big-league ready. (5 Questions with Twins Prospect Brent Rooker) (Brent Rooker Is ‘Ready to Go’ For a ‘Big’ Year) Round 3 Seth Stohs - Matt Wallner, OF Continuing the theme, I’ll take a Minnesota kid who was the Twins Competitive Balance pick in 2019. Wallner was Mr. Minnesota, drafted by the Twins as a pitcher (2016), went to Southern Mississippi, became an All-American outfielder with great power. (Get to know Matt Wallner) Steve Lein - Edwar Colina SP I may regret not taking a position player at this point, but after taking a rock for the rotation I'll go upside here. I watched Colina hit 100 MPH on the gun at Spring Training before baseball got shut down, and he has a good slider as well. (Triple-Digit Shoes to Fill) Ted Schwerzler - Keoni Cavaco SS This feels like a steal at where we are in the draft. Cavaco didn’t debut well in his first pro season, but he’s both young and raw while having immense tools. I’ll gamble on the upside here. (Cali Connection Jumps Draft Boards: Q&A with Keoni Cavaco) Cody Christie - Ben Rortvedt, C Catcher is a tough position to fill and I thought it was a great time to get the second-best catcher in the system. His AFL experience from last year will help him in the years ahead. Some might think it was a reach at this point, but I wanted to fill an up the middle position with one of the team’s top prospects. (Prospect Spotlight Video: Ben Rortvedt) Jeremy Nygaard - Devin Smeltzer LHSP My target list for this spot was wiped out with the previous picks, with the exception of Smeltzer. So I'll stick with my theme of 2018 Deadline acquisitions and complete my 1-2 Righty/Lefty punch. (Get to know Devin Smeltzer and his story) Matt Braun - Jose Miranda 3B This is kind of a weird portion of the draft now where I have to go with my gut. I love Miranda’s offensive upside and the fact that there are a limited number of other great third baseman available in the Twins’ system. (Get to Know Jose Miranda) Round 4 Matt Braun - Cole Sands RHSP Much like Miranda, there are a number of other great choices for a pitcher with solid upside. Sands is still somewhat of an unknown but he was a strike-throwing machine when healthy and could move quicklybecause of his status as a college arm. Jeremy Nygaard - LaMonte Wade Jr LF Had a hard time deciding what direction I wanted to go here. With Celestino and Wade locked into two outfield spots, I know I'm going to be giving up a power position, but Wade's ability to get on base was too much to pass on. Not sure with one of my outfielders will lead off now, but really like both of their ability to impact the game from the top of the lineup. (Get to Know LaMonte Wade, Jr.) Cody Christie - Misael Urbina, CF Much like my catcher pick earlier in the draft, I’m going for an up-the-middle player with this pick. Adding him with Larnach in the outfield could be a fun pair to watch. Urbina might have some of the highest upside of any player in the organization and he has all the tools to be an impact player. (Twins Tied to Misael Urbina, Expected to be “Aggressive” Internationally) Ted Schwerzler - Travis Blankenhorn 2B Up the middle should now be covered on my team by adding a guy that could debut for the Twins in 2020. Blankenhorn has positional flexibility, good bat skills, and should hit for doubles power at worst. (Get to Know Travis Blankenhorn) (5 Questions with Travis Blankenhorn) Steve Lein - Nick Gordon SS I was focusing on Gordon or Blankenhorn here, happy to get the one that can play SS. When healthy, he's also been a good hitter I can have set the table from the top of the lineup. Seth Stohs - Dakota Chalmers RH SP Chalmers completed his Tommy John rehab after coming to the Twins in an August 2018 deal. He possesses a big arm with upper-90s velocity. He's also got the makings of a couple of plus secondary pitches. Needs innings and time, but he has a high ceiling. (Get to Know Dakota Chalmers) We are hoping to do some fun things with the finalized rosters in the weeks ahead. After four rounds, who has the best roster so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Here is some background on the draft rules before getting into the results. There were 16 rounds in the draft with the draft order being randomly selected prior to starting. Players had to be picked at their primary position but if a player had 15 or more games at a position, they could be selected for that position as well. All players must have “prospect” or “rookie” status to be draft eligible. Positions on each team included: Catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three outfielders, a bench player/hitter, three starting pitchers, three relief pitchers, and an extra pitcher. (Please note that comments under the picks were made by the person making the selection. After reading this, be sure to also click on some of the available links on each player for more on each.) Round 1 Seth Stohs - Royce Lewis, SS #1 spot, have to go with the #1 prospect, right? Teams want to be strong up the middle, and whether Lewis plays shortstop or center field, I feel good about having him on this roster. He’ll likely hit first, second or third for me too. (The Defensive Future of Royce Lewis) (Royce Lewis Is Putting It All On Display) Steve Lein - Alex Kirilloff, 1B I'll start with the best pure hitter in the organization, and also likely one of the best in the minor leagues. I'm going to play him at 1B for now because I think impact outfielders will be easier to come by. (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Learning From Past Mistakes) (Alex Kirilloff Should Make his Twins Debut in 2020) Ted Schwerzler - Jordan Balazovic, RHSP Although I like that a clone of the second pick is available here, I think anchoring the rotation with a potential ace works out. (Have The Twins Fixed Their Velocity Problem?) (How MLB’s Delayed Start Could Impact Minnesota’s Rotation) Cody Christie - Trevor Larnach, OF I think I have the easiest pick in the draft. I’m happy with whomever Ted left for me. But please, let it be the player I want. Alex Kirilloff’s clone is available. I’ll take Trevor Larnach as the player that I think could have been the first pick in this draft and he could be the Twins best position player over the next 10 years. (Pending Prospects: Which Outfielder Will Be Called up First?) (Trevor Larnach Homers in First MLB Spring At-Bat) Jeremy Nygaard - Jhoan Duran, RHSP For me, there were five prospects in the top tier, and I was going to take whichever one fell. Getting arguably the top pitching prospect at this point is fine with me as I feel there is more position player depth than frontline pitching. (Get to Know Twins RHP Prospect Jhoan Duran) (Jhoan Duran Headlines Twins Roster Additions) Matt Braun - Ryan Jeffers, C A bit annoyed that I missed out on the guys who I believed to be truly elite, but Jeffers is no slouch. Not only will he be by far the best catching prospect available, his offense and defense both have trended upward since being drafted and he’ll look to potentially grow in the future. (Get to Know Ryan Jeffers) Round 2 Matt Braun - Lewis Thorpe, LHSP While there were a few other solid pitching options, Thorpe provides the immediate upside that few can match. His strikeout potential appears to be immense and the fact that he held his own at the major league level gives me great hope. (5 Questions with Twins Pitcher Lewis Thorpe) (What’s Next for Lewis Thorpe?) Jeremy Nygaard - Gilberto Celestino, OF I hoped that Jeffers would fall, and maybe that would have been the wiser pick at #5 considering Matt may not have taken two pitchers, but I stuck to my board. This pick was more difficult because there were a number of different trains of thought: Do I take the best prospect? Do I take the best player at a position of scarcity? At the end, though, I thought it would be smartest to take someone who could fill premium defensive (CF) and offensive (leadoff) positions. (Could Gilberto Celestino or Royce Lewis Cover Center if Byron Buxton Gets Injured?) Cody Christie - Blayne Enlow, RHSP I wanted a starting pitcher with this pick, and I’ve been high on Enlow for multiple years. I think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter. The Twins don’t have a ton of players that fit that mold and I wanted to make sure I had a player that could anchor my pitching rotation. (For Enlow and Other Minor Leaguers, “No One Is Safe” At Trade Deadline) Ted Schwerzler - Matt Canterino, RHSP Might as well stick with pitching here. Canterino was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and immediately made an impact on the pro mound. He’s got a quirky delivery, but there’s a bunch of strikeouts on the way and I think the ceiling is very high. (Matt Canterino: Pitcher and Problem Solver) (Q&A with Matt Canterino) Steve Lein - Randy Dobnak, SP This may be the first pick that surprises, but it shouldn't. Dobnak has been the most consistent starter in the Twins organization since May 16th...of 2018. In that time he has a near 2.00 ERA and hasn't given up more than 4 runs in ANY outing, from A-ball to the majors. (5 Questions with Twins Pitcher Randy Dobnak) (Randy Dobnak Is Better Than You Think) Seth Stohs - Brent Rooker, OF You love getting to draft first, but then it’s a long wait while a lot of great players and prospects are taken. I thought I would take some pitching here, but instead, I’m going to just mash. Rooker put up some great numbers for nearly two months in Rochester in 2019 (May/June) before his season came to an early end. He’s also nearly big-league ready. (5 Questions with Twins Prospect Brent Rooker) (Brent Rooker Is ‘Ready to Go’ For a ‘Big’ Year) Round 3 Seth Stohs - Matt Wallner, OF Continuing the theme, I’ll take a Minnesota kid who was the Twins Competitive Balance pick in 2019. Wallner was Mr. Minnesota, drafted by the Twins as a pitcher (2016), went to Southern Mississippi, became an All-American outfielder with great power. (Get to know Matt Wallner) Steve Lein - Edwar Colina SP I may regret not taking a position player at this point, but after taking a rock for the rotation I'll go upside here. I watched Colina hit 100 MPH on the gun at Spring Training before baseball got shut down, and he has a good slider as well. (Triple-Digit Shoes to Fill) Ted Schwerzler - Keoni Cavaco SS This feels like a steal at where we are in the draft. Cavaco didn’t debut well in his first pro season, but he’s both young and raw while having immense tools. I’ll gamble on the upside here. (Cali Connection Jumps Draft Boards: Q&A with Keoni Cavaco) Cody Christie - Ben Rortvedt, C Catcher is a tough position to fill and I thought it was a great time to get the second-best catcher in the system. His AFL experience from last year will help him in the years ahead. Some might think it was a reach at this point, but I wanted to fill an up the middle position with one of the team’s top prospects. (Prospect Spotlight Video: Ben Rortvedt) Jeremy Nygaard - Devin Smeltzer LHSP My target list for this spot was wiped out with the previous picks, with the exception of Smeltzer. So I'll stick with my theme of 2018 Deadline acquisitions and complete my 1-2 Righty/Lefty punch. (Get to know Devin Smeltzer and his story) Matt Braun - Jose Miranda 3B This is kind of a weird portion of the draft now where I have to go with my gut. I love Miranda’s offensive upside and the fact that there are a limited number of other great third baseman available in the Twins’ system. (Get to Know Jose Miranda) Round 4 Matt Braun - Cole Sands RHSP Much like Miranda, there are a number of other great choices for a pitcher with solid upside. Sands is still somewhat of an unknown but he was a strike-throwing machine when healthy and could move quickly because of his status as a college arm. Jeremy Nygaard - LaMonte Wade Jr LF Had a hard time deciding what direction I wanted to go here. With Celestino and Wade locked into two outfield spots, I know I'm going to be giving up a power position, but Wade's ability to get on base was too much to pass on. Not sure with one of my outfielders will lead off now, but really like both of their ability to impact the game from the top of the lineup. (Get to Know LaMonte Wade, Jr.) Cody Christie - Misael Urbina, CF Much like my catcher pick earlier in the draft, I’m going for an up-the-middle player with this pick. Adding him with Larnach in the outfield could be a fun pair to watch. Urbina might have some of the highest upside of any player in the organization and he has all the tools to be an impact player. (Twins Tied to Misael Urbina, Expected to be “Aggressive” Internationally) Ted Schwerzler - Travis Blankenhorn 2B Up the middle should now be covered on my team by adding a guy that could debut for the Twins in 2020. Blankenhorn has positional flexibility, good bat skills, and should hit for doubles power at worst. (Get to Know Travis Blankenhorn) (5 Questions with Travis Blankenhorn) Steve Lein - Nick Gordon SS I was focusing on Gordon or Blankenhorn here, happy to get the one that can play SS. When healthy, he's also been a good hitter I can have set the table from the top of the lineup. Seth Stohs - Dakota Chalmers RH SP Chalmers completed his Tommy John rehab after coming to the Twins in an August 2018 deal. He possesses a big arm with upper-90s velocity. He's also got the makings of a couple of plus secondary pitches. Needs innings and time, but he has a high ceiling. (Get to Know Dakota Chalmers) We are hoping to do some fun things with the finalized rosters in the weeks ahead. After four rounds, who has the best roster so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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For many Twins fans, 2024 might seem like light years away, but that year will mark Joe Mauer’s first year of eligibility of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. There are many things that go into a player’s “Cooperstown Case,” but Twins fans got a first-hand look at one of the best players of his generation. All things considered, what was Mauer’s value during his Twins tenure?Was Mauer Clutch? There are many ways to look at the value a player brings to a team. One that has gained popularity in more recent years is Win Probability Added (WPA), a stat that has been kept since 1974. Among catchers during that time, Joe Mauer ranks second and he only trails current HOF member Mike Piazza. It took Piazza four trips through the BBWAA voting process to be elected, but this has been the case with multiple power hitters from the steroid era. Another FanGraphs statistic that uses WPA is Clutch, which measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations. Piazza does great when it comes to WPA because he had an extended career, but his Clutch score is actually negative. Joe Mauer ranks seventh all-time in Clutch due in large part to having a .943 OPS in nearly 850 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position. Clutch as a statistic does have flaws because it compares a player to himself. Mauer hit .306/.388/.439 for his career so to have a positive Clutch, he has to hit better than those numbers in high leverage situations. Good hitters hit no matter the situation, so Clutch is something that is almost impossible to quantify. Going to WAR Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has become the common measuring stick for the value players accrue for their team. Currently, there are 16 catchers who have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Mauer ranks ninth all-time in WAR and his total is also higher than current catchers like Buster Posey and Yadier Molina that might be on the path to Cooperstown. Also, his WAR total is higher than the average of those already elected to the Hall. The players ahead of him on the WAR catching leaderboard are a who’s who of all-time catching greats. Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, and Yogi Berra are among the greatest players of all-time and Mauer is right there with them. Mauer is also within 4.3 WAR of passing Berra and Piazza to place him fifth all-time. He’d have been able to reach that total with one more good season behind the plate. Show Me the Money Mauer signed the largest contract in Twins history following his MVP performance in 2009. For many fans, Mauer’s contract became a point of contention later in his career. His overall value and performance on the field were worth every penny out of the Pohlad’s pocketbooks. Prior to signing the contract, Mauer had provided the Twins with $160.8 million in value while his salaries had totaled $21.53 million. For his career, he provided the Twins with $329.5 million in value and he was paid just over $218 million. Obviously, his years after concussions forced him to move to first base weren’t worth $23 million per year. The Twins signed him to be a Hall of Fame catcher and he could wind up being the second Hall of Fame player to play his entire career in a Twins uniform. Was Mauer’s value enough to help his Cooperstown case? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Was Mauer Clutch? There are many ways to look at the value a player brings to a team. One that has gained popularity in more recent years is Win Probability Added (WPA), a stat that has been kept since 1974. Among catchers during that time, Joe Mauer ranks second and he only trails current HOF member Mike Piazza. It took Piazza four trips through the BBWAA voting process to be elected, but this has been the case with multiple power hitters from the steroid era. Another FanGraphs statistic that uses WPA is Clutch, which measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations. Piazza does great when it comes to WPA because he had an extended career, but his Clutch score is actually negative. Joe Mauer ranks seventh all-time in Clutch due in large part to having a .943 OPS in nearly 850 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position. Clutch as a statistic does have flaws because it compares a player to himself. Mauer hit .306/.388/.439 for his career so to have a positive Clutch, he has to hit better than those numbers in high leverage situations. Good hitters hit no matter the situation, so Clutch is something that is almost impossible to quantify. Going to WAR Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has become the common measuring stick for the value players accrue for their team. Currently, there are 16 catchers who have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Mauer ranks ninth all-time in WAR and his total is also higher than current catchers like Buster Posey and Yadier Molina that might be on the path to Cooperstown. Also, his WAR total is higher than the average of those already elected to the Hall. The players ahead of him on the WAR catching leaderboard are a who’s who of all-time catching greats. Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, and Yogi Berra are among the greatest players of all-time and Mauer is right there with them. Mauer is also within 4.3 WAR of passing Berra and Piazza to place him fifth all-time. He’d have been able to reach that total with one more good season behind the plate. Show Me the Money Mauer signed the largest contract in Twins history following his MVP performance in 2009. For many fans, Mauer’s contract became a point of contention later in his career. His overall value and performance on the field were worth every penny out of the Pohlad’s pocketbooks. Prior to signing the contract, Mauer had provided the Twins with $160.8 million in value while his salaries had totaled $21.53 million. For his career, he provided the Twins with $329.5 million in value and he was paid just over $218 million. Obviously, his years after concussions forced him to move to first base weren’t worth $23 million per year. The Twins signed him to be a Hall of Fame catcher and he could wind up being the second Hall of Fame player to play his entire career in a Twins uniform. Was Mauer’s value enough to help his Cooperstown case? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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