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SaberNerd

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Everything posted by SaberNerd

  1. SaberNerd
    I'm not going to commit to 3 years to a 30 yr old pitcher who hasn't been good this year and the deal only buys out one FA year.
  2. SaberNerd
    Gotta move people to the pen, but no way I would do it with Bradley. He has shown that he can be a back of the rotation starter already, and he doesn't have a large dropoff 1st->3rd time through the order. Festa/SWR would make more sense, and maybe Ober if we can't fix him for next year.
  3. SaberNerd
    Currently there are only 20 qualified hitters in MLB hitting .285, and only 8 with a .380 OBP. The reason power is valued is that it makes it so that you don't have to hit .270 to provide offensive value, as few people are able to hit that. Also hard to have a high OBP if pitchers aren't afraid you will hit a fastball over the fence.
  4. SaberNerd
    Festa is the first to the bullpen. Career 2.45ERA/3.05FIP first time through the order, 7.56/5.35 2nd. Should be flirting with 100 as well, could be a top 10 reliever. We traded Jax for Bradley. They view him as a starter, even this year he's fine for a back of the rotation guy and there is more to unlock.
  5. SaberNerd
    I'm not sure that Mendez would get taken in the Rule 5 draft, but I'd be way more surprised if he isn't added to the 40 man to prevent that option. No way you trade Bader for him and then risk losing him for nothing.
  6. SaberNerd
    Jenkins now hitting .336/.437/.569 (1.006) in the 2nd half (31 games). Really starting to look like the guy scouts were raving about on draft night, and like he'll be in the majors by this time next year.
  7. SaberNerd
    Someone who is buying the team isn't going to care much about the current state of the roster, unless it is currently a WS competitor. There are only 30 teams, they rarely go on sale, and if you want one you can't be picky. That's why the Rays got 1.7B, and I would think they would be at the bottom of the league in valuation.
  8. SaberNerd
    I'd rather let the guy with a 6 ERA at AAA develop there than the majors. Not sure what him getting shelled by better hitters will do to help him.
  9. SaberNerd
    Yeah, but we held on to him until the last hour, so we likely weren't happy with what we got. With this, and with him signing a 1yr/$3M contract after 3 previous years of sub-3 ERA, the league doesn't seem to be nearly as high on him as fans are.
  10. SaberNerd
    We are one of the top orgs at developing pitching. 6th in fWAR since 2022, and that is with no major FA moves and only taking 1 pitcher with our first pick since 2016. Lack of hitting development (and hitter injury prevention) is the problem
  11. SaberNerd
    No intel, but the Twins often have guys early in rehab only play half a game.
  12. SaberNerd
    With Buxton not being reliable, having a backup CF with 14 career PA is far too risky for me.
  13. SaberNerd
    This seems completely backwards. The Phillies thought they were calling our bluff that we would take him, but we weren't bluffing.
  14. SaberNerd
    Even if we make no moves on the player side, if we get new ownership the off-season can still be a success. Long term thinking
  15. SaberNerd
    He has been an average hitter at AAA (wRC+ of 100 and 101). He needs to show better numbers there to get time in the show.
  16. SaberNerd
    The reason the Twins will likely be sold for a lot of money really just has to do with a simple premise: people like owning a sports team. Valuations have been going up in MLB not because the economics have gotten much better, but there has just been a number of rich tech/finance people who want to own a sports team. They are willing to pay more for the business than it would be worth from a purely financial standpoint. I would be shocked if the team moved. Minnesota would become the largest market to not have a team, and I'm not sure MLB would allow it.
  17. SaberNerd
    I could absolutely see Jax moving to the rotation. Sweeper and Changeup both miss bats, curveball and sinker are decent enough to serve as depth pitches. Mainly would depend on how well his stuff holds up, and if the fastball survives the velo drop that would come with it. Would likely average 94-5, which would be average. If he would maintain an average fastball and command he's an above average starter. Absolutely not on Sands. He's extremely similar to Varland in that they both have good fastball/cutter and poor offspeed and breaking pitches.
  18. SaberNerd
    Finally have some Statcast data to look at Raya. Was much more curveball heavy, while the scouting reports where much higher on the slider. Gets good spin on both, as well as his cutter. Threw more cutters than 4 seamers, and they really didn't miss bats but got weak contact. Zero changeups; maybe his resurgence lately is partly due to scrapping that pitch. Also threw a couple sinkers, both fastballs averaged around 94.
  19. SaberNerd
    The main reason he was ranked highly is that people think he could have 4 average or better pitches; Slider is probably the best, fastball/curve/change more average. The past year or so people have started to sour on the changeup and his command, along with a growing disbelief that he can handle a starter's workload. Early on in his career, he reminded people of Berrios. Now, he looks like a bullpen arm, but with the slider he could be a really good one.
  20. SaberNerd
    Now with a decent sample size at AAA with Statcast data, I'm not sure Morris' slider is quite as good as some outlets had it, but the changeup and curveball have looked like legitimate pitches rather than just show-me pitches. He also hasn't had the R/L splits you would expect from a guy with a great slider; he's pretty equal against both sides. It's annoying that they haven't given him a cutter, so it groups both his cutter and slider together so I can't see stats for just the slider.
  21. SaberNerd
    I could see that, but I also think he could go to the AFL to make up lost time and start at AA if he does well there. You don't keep your top prospect at a lower level then you want to keep org filler guys at a higher level.
  22. SaberNerd
    Everyone gets seduced by his changeup (we're team #5 for him). If only he had the ability to control where it went.
  23. SaberNerd
    I really don't agree with this critique of the Twins. They are an average defensive teams (currently Statcast's FRV has them +6 runs, which puts them in the cluster of teams ranked 10-22 that are single-digit runs from average). For Royce Lewis, if we had settled on a different position earlier in his career that would have been CF, which would mean he would currently be playing LF, and he has been an average 3B for his career. People didn't think Lewis was going to get this big, and if he hadn't he would probably be our SS (and only hitting 20HR/600PA)
  24. SaberNerd
    Langenberg has looked real good the past couple months. Hopefully he gets a similar velo bump in year 2 that he got in year 1. Has a really solid sweeper that should work with a good fastball.
  25. SaberNerd
    We'll see if he can start, but it's too early to decide he's a reliever. He has really only had 1 injury, missed a bunch of time due to having it at the worst possible time, and then didn't recover properly. This isn't like Canterino where he keeps getting different injuries.
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