Lou Hennessy

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Many were surprised at the lack of action by the Twins at last week’s trade deadline. Would they have done anything different had that deadline been pushed back a week? From new sellers emerging on the market, as well as new holes opening up on the Twins’ roster, a lot could have changed in a week. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports It’s been about 10 days since the Twins left MLB’s trade kitchen without getting anything to eat. Yes, they made a deal earlier in the week when they swapped Jorge Lopez for Dylan Floro, but there was much more to be desired as the club approached the August 1st trade deadline. Whether it was due to a tricky market with few sellers, or a debatable lack of a major hole on their roster, the Twins decided to stand pat as they make their push toward the postseason. But things change quickly over the course of a week - not just for the Twins, but league wide. Teams that were clinging to dwindling hopes of landing a spot in the playoff bracket are now regretting their passivity. And while the Twins liked their depth enough to hold out through the deadline, they now find themselves with a handful of injuries that are once again chipping away at the roster. So it begs the question - how would the Twins’ trade deadline have played out if they had an extra week to make their determinations? Take a look at a few of the teams that decided not to sell any significant pieces last Tuesday. The Los Angeles Angels know that it’s almost certain that their impending superstar free agent, Shohei Ohtani, will not return to Anaheim next season. Even so, they decided that the optics of trading away one of the most-talented players of all time would be too detrimental to their organization. Not only did they hang onto the probable American League MVP, but they held off on trading other assets in the hopes of making their own playoff push. Players that could’ve fetched the Angels a solid return such as Hunter Renfroe and Matt Moore would’ve been of great interest to a team like the Twins, even before their most recent injury developments. The cherry on top of the Angels’ mistake sundae was the fact they even turned themselves into buyers at the deadline, acquiring supplemental pieces like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. Each of those players would’ve been considered solid buys for the Twins had they decided to make a move. Instead, they find themselves on a sinking ship that has lost seven of their last 10 games. The Boston Red Sox are another team that could have been a great trade match with the Twins if they had decided to lean into a seller’s mindset. Instead, they hung onto valuable assets such as outfielder Adam Duvall and star slugger Justin Turner. Each of those players are free agents at year’s end (Turner has a $10.5 million player option), and each would have represented a clear boost to the club’s corps of right-handed hitters. Instead, Boston held off on trading them away, and much like the Angels, all they have to show for it is seven losses in their last 10 games. The Twins could certainly use any of the aforementioned players thanks to some injury developments that have sprung up in the past few weeks. Alex Kirilloff hit the injured list with a shoulder issue. Byron Buxton is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Brock Stewart had yet another setback in his recovery from a sore elbow. To make matters worse, the club’s best right-handed hitter, Donovan Solano, left Tuesday night’s game against the Detroit Tigers with a knee injury. While it looks like he will likely avoid a stay on the injured list, the Twins will surely be cautious with his usage in the near-term. Of course, just because the Twins would’ve had more time to swing a deal had the deadline been this week instead of last, doesn’t mean they would have certainly pushed something through. Even knowing how some sellers such as the Angels and Red Sox have fared in the last week, it’s very possible that the club could have wound up with the same outcome regardless. As Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic stated on the latest mailbag episode of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast (Patreon subscription required, and highly recommended), any criticism toward the club’s inaction at the deadline should be directed at the Twins’ passivity, not the lack of options to upgrade the roster. There were moves to be made even without the inclusion of the Angels or Red Sox. “Would it make it more likely that John and I would go get lunch after the show today if there were five great restaurants right across the street?” Gleeman said as he started another one of his world-famous terrible analogies. “Yes, but that shouldn’t really affect whether you eat when you’re hungry. You can make yourself a sandwich.” But the Twins skipped their lunch, and now we’re starting to hear their growling belly that was desperate for something to tide themselves over until dinner. View full article

It was a clear need in the off-season, yet the Twins’ front office decided to stick in-house with their relief corps. Predictably, they find themselves venturing to the trade market in an effort to patch up their weak spots. Where was this urgency over the winter? Image courtesy of John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports It’s refreshing to see the Twins try to make some improvements on the trade front as they head into the home stretch of a playoff push. However, it feels painfully predictable that they find themselves with such a need in the first place. Sure, there is sound logic in a team investing most of its resources into an everyday lineup and the starting rotation. Pound for pound, these areas will get more playing time than their teammates in the bullpen throughout the course of the season. But being short-handed in late-game situations has seemingly become a core tenet of this organization over the past few years, and it’s bitten them time and time again. And after throwing prospect capital to the Baltimore Orioles in last year’s trade for Jorge Lopez, it felt like maybe the Twins’ decision-makers had learned their lesson on that front. Yet here they are again, exploring their options for relief help after standing pat in the off-season. It’s not like improvements weren’t out there over the winter. Even if they wanted to avoid higher-priced veterans such as Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel, there was a bounty of solid middle relievers that would have blended nicely with the current group. And, of course, that caliber of reliever is who they seem to be targeting as the clock ticks toward tomorrow’s deadline. Guys like Adam Ottavino (3.35 ERA, 82% LOB%), Will Smith (2.84 ERA, 4.88 K/BB), and David Robertson (2.00 ERA, 28% strikeout rate) each signed relatively modest one-year deals, and each would now be back-end options for the Twins had they reeled them in before the season. Now, the Twins find themselves with rumored interest in trading for reinforcements such as Brooks Raley of the New York Mets and, to a lesser extent Josh Hader of the San Diego Padres. Make no mistake; those two would be great additions to the Twins’ bullpen picture. But they’ll cost the club a ton in prospect capital, especially Hader, one of the best relief weapons in the game. Instead of having to weigh the immense price tag that standout relievers tend to cost in late July, the Twins could be sitting comfortably right now had they made their additions over the winter. It’s reasonable to expect a few more wins at this point had they done that, and at a cheaper price than they’d have to pay for whoever they acquire between now and today’s 5 PM CDT deadline. The team’s insistence on molding their relief corps with as little financial investment as possible has gotten in the way of overall success once again. It’s not to say that the group they put together is some catastrophe. Instead, the group is mostly usable. But now the front office finds themselves predictably seeking improvements, and the only way to get a clear upgrade is to give up a package of prospects. Fans should be glad to see the club trying to make improvements now. But it could have been a lot easier had they made this call before the season. What do you think? Who do you want to see the Twins target between now and Tuesday’s 5 PM trade deadline? What would you be willing to give up to secure another high-end bullpen arm? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and stay tuned to Twins Daily for all your Twins trade deadline rumors. View full article

The Twins took their fair share of criticism when they decided to tender Emilio Pagan a contract over the offseason, and much of it looked warranted after a rocky first month. But they stood by the righty, and he rewarded them with a fantastic three-month stretch. But how much faith should we have in Pagan’s renaissance? Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports When Emilio Pagan was acquired from the San Diego Padres mere hours before the start of the 2022 season, he was replacing the fan-favorite reliever that he was traded for. Taylor Rogers was a fixture in the back end of the Twins bullpen for parts of six seasons – but Pagan wasn’t able to match that production in his first year with the club. Of course, there were many other layers to the swap (the inclusion of Chris Paddack, questions surrounding Rogers’ injured finger, etc.), but the stark contrast in player popularity soured the deal for many fans. Nevertheless, the Twins brought Pagan back for another campaign this year, and all hope seemed gone for good after a six-run drubbing in Boston on April 20th. Many believed that should have been his final game as a member of the Twins, and their frustration was relatively justified. That clunker brought his Twins career ERA to 4.82, with 12 home runs allowed, often in crucial points of tight games. Since that day, Pagan has gone through a renaissance - a Paganaissance, if you will. But how much faith should we be putting in the new Emilio? Are his results finally starting to match his raw talent? Or was Tuesday night’s slip-up against Seattle a sign that he’s still walking a tight rope? Before coughing up the lead to the Mariners in that brutal loss, Pagan had a stretch of three months where he was one of the most-reliable options in the Twins’ relief corps. From April 26th through July 23rd, he had a sterling 2.29 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and a strong 25.2% strikeout rate. Opponents hit just .159 off of him in that span, and he gave up just three home runs across 35 1/3 innings pitched. He stranded 80% of runners in those three months, which is pivotal for a pitcher that has been slain by the long ball throughout his career. His Win Probability Added was a plus-0.22, which is uncharted territory for the polarizing reliever. He started looking more like the pitcher that the front office envisioned with rose-colored glasses, and less like the last resort in a fluid bullpen picture. But right on queue, just when Pagan’s stock had never been higher, the other shoe dropped as he gave up a game-tying blast to Julio Rodriguez in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s demoralizing loss to the Mariners. While only one of that inning’s four earned runs was charged to Pagan, he carried the heaviest weight of that loss, as he has many times over the last two seasons. After all that progress (and about 80% of this article being completed), that bomb brought on the traumatic echoes of Pagan’s hardest moments as a Twin. So what should fans expect going forward? It’s not like the Twins have a plethora of lock-down relief options, but then again, the club has been burned multiple times after entrusting Pagan with high-leverage opportunities. The team and their pitcher are stuck in a never-ending cycle of building up a beautiful house of cards with strings of scoreless outings, only to be tumbled down with a gust of wind from an opponent’s home run in the least opportune moments imaginable. At the end of the day, those three months were fantastic and much-needed for the team and player alike. But still, it's hard to trust somebody who has a career-long reputation for dropping the ball at the worst moments. It’s reasonable to expect two more months of solid production from Pagan, with a few slips mixed in along the way. For a Twins bullpen that seems to constantly be in flux, that’s going to be a tough pill to swallow when the other shoe drops. But until they get some reinforcements - either via trade or an unexpected internal candidate steps up - Pagan is going to get plenty of action in medium to high-leverage situations. Is the team going to get the same old Emilio that fumbles the bag like he did against the Mariners, or will they get the rock-solid set-up option that flourished in the Paganaissance? What do you think? Does Pagan’s excellent three-month stretch change his reputation in your eyes, or did Tuesday prove he's still the same old Emilio? What are your expectations for him over the next two months? Let us know in the comment section below. View full article

Carlson is the same age or younger than each of these players. I also didn't propose trading Lewis, Kirilloff or Julien to acquire him.

The Twins find themselves in a precarious spot as they approach the August 1st trade deadline. They could use another bat in the outfield, but the club already has a glut of options that can’t seem to break through and establish themselves in that role. Could they try to swing a trade with the Cardinals for one of their freezer-burned outfielders? Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports It’s hard to believe the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves near the bottom of the National League standings. They certainly had aspirations of competing when they came into the 2023 season, but an underwhelming pitching staff has caused them to limp into the trade deadline. Whether that means a total overhaul is in the works or just a slight retooling, it’s clear that something needs to change on that roster. The Twins, while certainly flawed in their own right, will approach the deadline cautiously, with modest improvements becoming seemingly inevitable. One of their biggest needs coming into this season remains a vital missing piece to this puzzle – that being an outfielder that can mash left-handed pitching. Kyle Garlick didn’t end up being the answer that the team had hoped, and Willi Castro has been a solid contributor thanks to his defensive versatility, but his bat leaves much to be desired. Could the Twins and Cardinals match up on a trade in the coming weeks? One name that could be of interest to the Twins is former top-prospect Dylan Carlson. The 24-year-old currently finds himself on the periphery of the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart, behind the likes of Lars Nootbaar , Jordan Walker, and Tyler O’Neill. With Brendan Donovan also in the fold, and prospect Alec Burleson starting to emerge, that leaves Carlson fighting with at least five other players for four lineup spots on any given day. The club also has utility man Tommy Edman on the injured list, but he would require regular playing time upon his return, as well. That has meant a healthy dose of platoon sharing for the Cardinals, which is hardly unique to their club, but there’s a sense that this roster isn’t as balanced as it could be. For what it’s worth, Carlson has excelled in this platoon role. On the season, the athletic switch-hitter has a .293/.414./.431 (141 wRC+) against southpaw pitching, and solid defensive numbers in the outfield (including three OAA in center field). If the Twins were to acquire this former top prospect, he would slide into the middle of their lineup when they face left-handed pitching. That would supplant someone like Castro (90 wRC+ against lefties) or Max Kepler (66 wRC+ against lefties). Carlson would also have the ability to hold down center field in lieu of Michael A. Taylor (100 wRC+ against lefties), and he even represents a modest improvement against right-handed pitching (89 wRC+ against righties for Carlson, 77 wRC+ against righties for Taylor). While Carlson currently finds himself on the outside looking in when it comes to getting the lion’s share of playing time in the Cardinals’ outfield, the club will surely want a strong return package if they were to deal him away. He’s still young, has solid defensive chops and still mashes against southpaws. It’s hard to picture the Twins trading one of their top three prospects at this year’s deadline, but are there other young assets that could be packaged together in an effort to entice St. Louis’ front office? It sounds like the Cardinals are desperately seeking young pitching. Would someone like Simeon Woods Richardson or Louie Varland entice them if packaged with a young slugger such as Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or Jose Miranda? Would David Festa, the Twins’ lone representative in this year’s Futures Game, be enough of a headliner to entice the Cards? Or would St. Louis insist on someone like Marco Raya, who is widely regarded as the Twins’ best pitching prospect. It’s hard to say whether either club would be interested in such a deal, but nevertheless, Carlson would fit into this current Twins’ roster rather cleanly. Not to mention, he’s under team control for three more seasons. What do you think? Should Carlson be a trade target for the Twins? What should they be willing to give up in return? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. View full article

When has Falvey ever done something like that? Also, I've been seeing a lot of "smartest person person in the room" digs from people on Twitter and I don't understand what you mean by it. Care to elaborate?

I'm sorry you feel like I'm swinging at you, LastOnePicked. I definitely skew on the optimistic side, but I understand that's not for everyone. I hope you have fun with your clear-eyed skepticism and thank you for your service in keeping a watchful-eye for icebergs.

After making his third All Star roster in his 10-year career, Sonny Gray’s trade value is at its highest peak since becoming a Twin two off-seasons ago. Even so, trading him now would likely be a misguided, panicked idea as the team approaches the August 1st trade deadline. Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports Without question, the Twins’ win-loss record from the first half was a disappointment to fans, players, coaches and front office decision-makers alike. There’s very little to sugarcoat when the team carries a losing record into the All-Star break. But there’s one emotion that can be just as unpleasant as disappointment, and far more dangerous. Panic. Based on the common themes that are presented across various social-media spheres, frustration has a way of boiling over when expectations aren’t being met. That panic leads to reckless speculation, which leads to loud, bombastic ideas for how to improve the team. The latest concept to come out of this line of thinking is the idea that the Twins should trade their All Star starting pitcher, Sonny Gray, at this year’s trade deadline. While it’s smart for front offices to listen to offers on any and all players, a trade of this magnitude likely wouldn’t yield the return that many would expect, and it would send a problematic message about where expectations should be going forward. Oftentimes when a Gray trade is suggested, the return package isn’t even a consideration. The logic of the proposal revolves around the idea that this team isn’t good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs, so they should sell their best assets to the highest bidder. It’s a knee-jerk reaction to a decades-long championship drought, made by surly grumps who see little more to the game than box scores and win-loss records. They don’t like what they see, which is understandable given the struggles of the lineup, but they think changes are needed by any means necessary. But two issues arise from this proposal. First, they don’t fully understand Gray’s worth to the Twins. Second, they don’t fully understand his value to a team trying to acquire him, and how the price shifts around the qualifying offer. Gray has been about as good as anyone could’ve expected when he was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Chase Petty, the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2021. In just under 220 innings pitched for the Twins, he has a 3.00 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate. That performance has been worth 5.2 fWAR since joining the Twins, and he’s taken his game to a new level this season (2.89 ERA, 11.4% swinging-strike rate across 18 starts). He’s been carried by two traits that would be rather enticing to teams that are in buy-now mode as we creep toward the trade deadline; an ultra-effective slider that pairs magnificently with his modest fastball and the ability to limit damage. Opponents are hitting just .128 against Gray’s slider, which is best in MLB among qualified pitchers according to Inside Edge. Part of that offering’s effectiveness comes from his ability to pair it with his deceptive fastball that boasts an elite spin rate (96th percentile) despite modest velocity. In terms of limiting damage, look no further than Gray’s 77.5% left-on-base average and his .515 OPS allowed with runners in scoring position (fifth-best in MLB). That pitchability bodes well for teams as they consider a pitcher that turns 34 later this year. That should include the Twins. While this is Gray’s final year of club control before he reaches free agency, the club can extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end. That price will likely be around $20 million for a one-year contract, and if he declines it and signs elsewhere, the Twins would receive compensation in the form of picks in next year’s amateur draft. If he accepts that offer, the Twins get to return him atop a competitive rotation for 2024 at a reasonable price. The value of the picks that would be awarded to the Twins if he signs elsewhere depends on how much Gray signs for with another team. If he signs a deal in excess of $50 million, then the Twins would receive a pick just after the first round of next year’s draft (likely in the 31-39 range). That outcome seems likely if Gray stays healthy and on his current trajectory. If he were to reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round (likely in the 65-70 range). So if the Twins don’t trade Gray, and he continues to pitch like he has since joining the club, they will likely get him signed for a one-year $20 million deal for 2024 based on the qualifying offer, or receive an extra top-75 pick in next year’s draft. As great as Gray has been, it’s hard to picture a team trading a prospect of this caliber for just two months of control of a pitcher that missed weeks of action with a hamstring issue just last year. Disappointment is understandable when looking at an underwhelming first half from the Twins. After years of losing baseball and the complete absence of playoff success since 2004, it’s easy to see why fans would be frustrated. Many lack faith that this roster can reach the playoffs in 2023, let alone make a deep run. The easy call in that scenario would be to sell high on expiring assets in an effort to re-fertilize the prospect corps. But the easy call isn’t always the smartest call. The Twins need to find a way to be competitive for the rest of this year and in 2024, and the best way to do that is to keep their strong rotation intact while trimming the fat from the lackluster lineup. Gray holds more value to the Twins by remaining in their rotation for a possible playoff run, then returning for one more year, or at least getting high-end draft picks in return if he signs elsewhere. Barring some mythical offer that is too good to pass up, trading him now would be a decision based on panic and nothing more. What do you think? Should the Twins consider trading Gray to the highest bidder? Or would they be better off building around him for another year? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. View full article

I loved and still love the idea of Turner on the Twins. He's been great for the Red Sox. I wonder if there'll be a trade market for him. Sox aren't clear sellers at the moment, but they're in a stacked division and a lot can happen in a few weeks.

The Twins reportedly had significant interest in the former MVP over the winter, but decided to go another direction. What could have been if the two sides had come to a deal? Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports The Twins seemed like a natural fit as a landing spot for a right-handed bat with a proven track record over the off-season. Given the team’s need for a short-term deal and a relatively top-heavy free agent class, there wasn’t a plethora of options to play with. However, there were a handful of names that would have fit that mold. Near the top of that list was former National League MVP, Andrew McCutchen. I asked in January if he did anything for Twins fans, and the general consensus was that he could represent a modest improvement in a more-limited role. It turns out that the Twins agreed. According to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News, the Twins had “heavy interest” in the veteran outfielder, but couldn’t promise the same playing time as he would get from the Pittsburgh Pirates. So McCutchen returned to the organization that drafted him on a reasonable one-year, $5 million contract. Instead, the Twins opted for a plan that included giving that starter’s share of starting opportunities to Joey Gallo, and a re-sign of Kyle Garlick to a guaranteed deal to avoid arbitration to fill the right-handed side of a platoon. Now, Gallo is once again in the middle of a brutal slump, and Garlick was just designated for assignment. McCutchen is currently performing at a level that the Twins desperately need from their corner outfielders. Through 62 games with the Pirates, he has a strong .264/.385/.425 (124 wRC+) slash line, with nine home runs, 24 RBI and seven stolen bases. All in all, Fangraphs pegs McCutchen’s performance worth 1.1 WAR, which would lead all Twins’ hitters. Sure, there’s no crystal ball that assures he would have performed at this level if he had signed with the Twins, but the point remains that McCutchen still possesses a potent bat in his age-36 season. Compare that to what the Twins have received from their corner outfielders, and the point really gets hammered home. McCutchen could have raised the tide with this offense with a modest investment. The Twins have the American League’s 4th-worst WAR total from their right fielders in 2023, and a combined OPS of just .699. McCutchen alone has an .810 OPS, which is more than 50 points higher than that of Gallo, 148 points higher than that of Garlick and 160 points higher than that of Max Kepler. Simply put, the plan that the Twins decided to go with has not panned out. It should be noted that McCutchen has played the bulk of his games this year as the Pirates’ DH, but there’s still reason to believe that he can be a strong defender in a corner outfield spot. He took the field in 53 games just last year, and he held his own with relatively neutral results when it came to Outs Above Average (0 OAA in 434 innings). He also still boasts above-average sprint speed (81st percentile), which is much faster than the three aforementioned Twins players. In terms of one of the team’s greatest weaknesses in 2023, McCutchen could have significantly improved the offense’s results with runners in scoring position. In those instances this year, the slugger has a whopping .901 OPS with just a 12.7% strikeout rate. His performance in those situations has been about 38% better than the league-average hitter. Again, there’s no promising that McCutchen would have been a vast improvement when compared to the options that the Twins are working with in their current corner outfield depth chart. But at this point, it’s hard to make the case against it. And for a team whose platoon-heavy game plan hasn’t mustered much firepower, the idea of having Cutch as a near-everyday regular sounds pretty refreshing. It’s easy to think about all the moves that haven’t gone the Twins’ way in recent years. From their disastrous free agent signings to their ill-fated trades at last year’s deadline. But what can drive people even crazier is thinking about all of the relatively-minor investment moves that could have paid off exponentially. McCutchen certainly fits that mold all too well. What do you think? Should the Twins have been more willing to promise significant playing time to McCutchen? Do you think he would have helped this offense that currently finds themselves in a tailspin? Let us know what you think in the comment section down below. View full article

Willi Castro did just about everything he could to keep the Twins afloat through a turbulent month of May. But his production has cratered as of late. Is it time to give the versatile utility player a reset at Triple-A? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Coming out of spring training, the Twins dubbed Willi Castro as the winner of the last spot on their 26-man roster. They may not have intended for him to be so disturbingly valuable in the first few months of the season, but nagging injuries will do that to a club. Thankfully, the multitalented Castro made the most of his opportunities with a truly spectacular month of May (.319/.355/.500 in 72 at-bats). But now that he’s cooled off exponentially (.402 OPS in the month of June), and some of his high-profile teammates are returning to form, it certainly starts a dialogue regarding what should come next. While there is merit to the idea of keeping him around for the foreseeable future, the evidence is mounting on the side of giving Castro a pit stop in Triple-A St. Paul when the roster reaches full strength. The good news for Castro and his admirers in Twins Territory is that he can be optioned to the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers. That way the team can be assured that he’ll remain in the organization and on the 40-man roster, but the club could use his 26-man MLB roster spot on someone else. And as underwhelming as Castro has been over the last few weeks, he’s almost certainly going to be needed again based on the overall health of the Twins’ collection of players. But with such a fragile lead in the AL Central, the Twins can’t afford to wait for the May-version of Castro to reappear, especially when considering his modest overall numbers throughout his career. They definitely can’t afford to give him everyday playing time if everyone is healthy. The Twins’ roster is inching closer to what many expected them to look like, with Joey Gallo returning from the IL on Monday and Byron Buxton seemingly due to return in short order. When that happens, the likely outcome will be Trevor Larnach packing his bags for Triple-A yet again. On the surface that move would be fine enough, as Larnach’s offensive production has been subpar for most of this season. But what happens when more offensive assets force the hand of the front office? If Matt Wallner or Jose Miranda keep raking with the Saints, and the Twins keep failing to score consistently, it’ll be hard justifying Castro’s roster spot. Wallner currently boasts a hearty .299/.405/.549 (139 wRC+) clip at the Triple-A level and Miranda has gone on a tear in the last few weeks. The 25-year-old has a .356 batting average over his last 11 games with the Saints, and looks as locked in as he was when he raised eyebrows as a rookie in 2022. Yes, Castro has far more defensive versatility than either of them, but there’s enough flexibility with the rest of the roster that the club could feasibly make it work without him. And if that leads to a more prudent offense as the team heads toward the heart of the summer, it might be worth it. Castro has a tendency to swing at everything. When that strategy goes well, and he’s able to lock in on a certain pitch early in counts, things have gone really well. He has a .529 average on the first pitch of his at-bats, which is well above league average (.357 according to Inside Edge). But as pitchers figure him out more and more, Castro has had trouble adjusting his high-swing approach, leading to far too many swings on pitches out of the zone. This is especially true against breaking pitches, where Castro has swung at 45% of those offerings out of the zone. And this is nothing new for him, either. Since the start of the 2021 season, only three players have chased a higher percentage of breaking pitches out of the zone. That’s not a good recipe for a player that has been below-average offensively in four of his five MLB seasons. The decision might not be imminent, but there’s a likelihood that the Twins will have to make a call on Castro in the near-future if things keep trending like they have been. Maybe a pit stop in Triple-A would benefit Castro and the team simultaneously. As steadier bats return to the Twins’ dugout, they could have better options in their pursuit to increase scoring, and the speedy Castro can refine his approach in the minors while remaining with the organization. It’s reasonable to think a 26-year-old is still capable of changing their ways, but it’s hard to see that happening at the game’s highest level while opportunities become more and more sparse. Maybe Castro could carve out a role similar to the one he held on Tuesday night when he came off the bench as a late-inning pinch runner. He does lead the team in steals and currently ranks in the 89th percentile of sprint speed among qualified players. That outcome would be ideal, but it’s hard to reserve a roster spot for such sparse opportunities. It becomes likelier when the roster expands to 28 players in September, but for now the path seems relatively clear. Castro needs to pick up his offensive production, or be subjected to a pit stop in St. Paul to change his tires and refuel for the postseason push. What do you think? Should Castro get a reset in St. Paul or is he too valuable to the Twins roster? Who would you like to see in his place if he does get optioned? Let us know in the comment section down below. View full article

Despite sitting atop the AL Central division, the Twins currently find themselves stuck in a hole when it comes to getting consistent availability and production out of their 26-man roster. Even though the MLB trade deadline is still roughly seven weeks away, should they consider dipping their toes into the trade market earlier than normal? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins fan base went into this season with palpable angst, and a mediocre record that continues to graze a .500 winning percentage hasn’t helped. What usually happens next in this scenario is a call from impassioned followers to make some trades, shake up the roster, and ignite a spark by any means necessary. And while the deadline is still nearly two months away, whispers of an early market have already been heard around the league. Whether any deals happen in the near-future is still to be determined. But the idea of making a move or two in June could be beneficial to a team like the Twins, who are currently in pole position in their division race, but need considerable help getting their vehicle up to speed. However, there are certainly drawbacks to trying to make an early deal. With merits and concerns on both sides of this coin, the Twins will have to figure out what they are going to prioritize relatively soon. Pros of an early trade While the team has boasted a few notable strengths so far in the 2023 season (a stellar starting rotation, some impressive stretches from key youngsters in the lineup, a fire breathing dragon at the back end of the bullpen, to name a few), there is no doubt that they could use a pick-me-up in a few different areas. The team’s depth has been tested multiple times this year, most of the bullpen has been inconsistent and the sluggers that were supposed to star on this squad are marred by injury, ineffectiveness or both. If a team can identify their needs for the rest of the year, an early entrance into trade conversations could be prudential. They can theoretically alleviate their woes with an effective addition, remap their depth chart with their acquisitions and hopefully get more balance on their roster. Not only could they improve the club in the short-term, but acquiring a key contributor in June would give them an additional month of production from this hypothetical player. For example, it’s pretty clear that if the Twins remain on the path that they’re currently on, a high-leverage bullpen addition will be necessary. If they were to swing a trade for a relief arm right now, that’s probably around 10-12 additional appearances that they’d be getting instead of waiting for the August 1st deadline to approach. Obviously, a high-impact deal in June is unlikely, and has become more-rare around the league with each passing year. But there are a few notable swaps that worked wonders for the teams involved, sometimes even more than the clubs anticipated. The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired infielder Chris Taylor in June of 2016, and he went on to be a stalwart in their lineup for years to come. The eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox traded for Steve Pearce in June of 2018, and he instantly became a catalyst for the club, eventually being named the World Series MVP that year. Jeff Samardzija was traded to the Oakland Athletics just after the calendar flipped to July in 2014, and went on to lead his new club to a postseason appearance. Each of these players were able to give their new teams additional contributions thanks to their early acquisition. And while that’s beneficial, it can come with a price. Cons of an early trade There’s a reason why these early trades have become so rare. It’s not that buying teams are unwilling to pull the trigger, but rather, the market is still in its infancy and the selling teams use the time left on the clock as leverage. If they get to the day of the trade deadline, sellers will surely be sifting through offers to determine the best return. But in June, what’s to stop a selling team from sitting on any offer and waiting for a better proposal down the road? Say the Twins are in the market for a starting-caliber, right-handed hitting veteran infielder. They could go to a team like the Red Sox and offer a mid-level pitching prospect (let’s go with Matt Canterino) for Justin Turner. Boston could sit on that offer and tell the next team that they’ll need to beat the Twins’ proposal if they want a shot at landing the veteran slugger. They have the luxury of waiting for the market to heat up to their liking. Sure, there’s a risk for these sellers in that they could sit on their hands too long, and their tradable asset either declines or gets injured. But in the end, sellers have the upper hand in June. That leads to the next con when looking at early trades: increased cost. If the Twins or any other buying team really wants to nail down a trade with so much time before the deadline, they’ll need to offer a package that is too good for the other side to pass on. That could mean a headlining prospect, multiple valuable assets, or taking on more salary in return. Just this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Kansas City Royals are open for business when it comes to bullpen weapon Aroldis Chapman, but they want a steeper prospect package and/or additional salary relief to make a move this far in advance of the trade deadline. While that could be worth it for a team like the Twins, it’s understandable why teams might be hesitant. The needs of the team are also in flux for teams like the Twins. They could have a totally different shopping list by the time the trade market usually heats up in mid-July, so they might be apprehensive about meeting a higher price for an asset right now. Maybe some of their veteran cornerstone players start performing to their expectations, or maybe some of their upper-level prospects take hold of a roster spot in the coming weeks. There’s a lot of moving pieces, and adding another movable piece might not be what’s ultimately best for the club in the long-haul What do you think? Are there other pros or cons to making a trade this early in the season? What do you think are the Twins’ biggest needs right now? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. View full article

I didn't intend to make it seem like the Solano signing was a wise choice, or that he's been a sight for sore eyes. But he has been better than the alternatives listed here, and he's been cheaper than Abreu and Bell. If Solano's production does tank this year, it would be easier to cut/swallow the remainder of his contract.

The Twins were rumored to have varying degrees of interest in a handful of first basemen in the off-season. While Donovan Solano has been rather unexciting, the club is surely relieved to have him aboard rather than the names on this list. What exactly did the Twins dodge by passing on these former standout sluggers? Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports All in all, most of the Twins’ needs were addressed in the off-season, with a few glaring exceptions. One of the areas that went relatively untouched was the need for a right-handed slugger that could play first base. The club was rumored to have some interest in a few notable names, and eventually landed on Donovan Solano as the de facto plug for their leak. He didn’t follow the mold of the players that are on this list, but he’s put up numbers that are solid, if unexciting. On the year, Solano is batting .270/.360/.350 (104 wRC+), and playing passable defense at first base (with rare appearances at second and third). His performance has been a likely outcome for a 35-year-old veteran with a high on-base profile. But how does Solano stack up against the other names that were loosely-attached to the Twins in the off-season? Josh Bell A one-time top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bell entered free agency as one of the better options among corner infielders. Despite a rocky couple of months with the San Diego Padres post-trade deadline, he finished the season with a .262/.362/.422 clip and 17 home runs. That’s the type of player many wanted for the Twins as someone that could split time with a left-handed platoon partner such as Alex Kirilloff or Joey Gallo. Bell went on to sign a two-year contract with the Cleveland Guardians, worth $33 million with an opt-out after the first year. The player option grants him the ability to re-enter the free agent market if he has a big year in 2023. But so far, Bell doesn’t look like somebody that’s lining up for a big payday this winter. In 45 games, the switch-hitter has a .228/.342/.348 clip with just three home runs. It should be noted that Bell has only been given 46 at-bats against left-handed pitching, which has been the Twins’ kryptonite all year. If they wanted someone that could mash from the right side of the plate, it’s probably wise that they passed on Bell. Luke Voit The home run king of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season looked like an ideal fit for the Twins on paper. He still boasted plenty of power from the right side in 2022 while blasting 22 home runs for the Padres and Washington Nationals, but his overall output was roughly replacement level (102 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR). Like Solano, Voit’s market failed to materialize until February, when teams were already in the thick of spring training. That soft market was part of the appeal when it came to Voit’s potential fit in Minnesota. The club could have theoretically signed the 32-year-old to a cheap, incentive-laden deal to be one of the last names on the 26-man roster, or even a minor-league “prove it” contract as he ended up doing with the Milwaukee Brewers. No matter how insignificant the price tag could have been, it’s fortunate that the Twins didn’t land Voit. In 22 games with the Brew Crew, he has a brutal .221/.284/.265 (54 wRC+) and has missed significant time with a neck injury. Like Bell, his numbers against left-handed pitching have been abysmal, as he’s slashing just .091/.091/.121 (-53 wRC+) with a shocking 60% strikeout rate. You’d be hard pressed to find somebody with a worse clip against southpaw pitching. If the Twins had signed Voit to be the right-handed side of a platoon at first base, it would have been a huge swing-and-miss, something Voit is all too familiar with. Jose Abreu Arguably the biggest name on the first base market last winter was the former-MVP who had a brilliant nine-year career with the rival Chicago White Sox. Abreu won three Silver Slugger awards and was named to three All-Star teams, so his offensive reputation was enough to land him a three-year, $58.5 million guarantee from the reigning world champion Houston Astros. Early in the off-season, he looked like a perfect fit for the Twins as a veteran leader that could still mash in the middle of a lineup and play a reasonably sound first base. But now, Abreu is one of the more confounding players in the league, and not in a good way. His power has seemingly vanished, as he has yet to hit a homerun in 47 games played this season. His anemic .221/.281/.260 (52 wRC+) slash line is borderline unplayable, and his .540 OPS is fourth-lowest among all qualified hitters. His inability to do any damage against breaking balls (36.1% whiff rate) has been a main culprit when trying to diagnose a cause for his sharp decline, but honestly, his numbers against fastballs (.263 slugging) and off-speed (21.7% whiff rate) aren’t going to save him, either. He would have been viewed as a Nelson Cruz-esque acquisition for the Twins – someone who could still be productive in his late-30s while leading by example from a corner locker. But instead, it looks like father time is catching up to one of the premier Cuban-born players of this generation. At the end of the day, it looks like the Twins chose wisely when they signed Solano to a one-year deal, especially when compared to these three rumored off-season targets. An ideal fit would have been to go the route that the Boston Red Sox ended up taking, by signing Justin Turner and transitioning him to a primary first baseman/designated hitter. He’s currently batting .267/.360/.407 (111 wRC+) and absolutely crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .291/.391/.509 (146 wRC+) clip while playing slightly above-average defense. Passing on the former Dodger legend is regrettable. Passing on the other names on this list has ended up being a blessing for an already-troubled Twins lineup. What do you think? Are you surprised by the lackluster performance of these three rumored targets? Who else would be a good fit as a right-handed hitting first baseman? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. View full article

In just over a month’s worth of minor league games, some pitchers are starting to stand out. Here are three arms, one from each level, that have impressed so far in 2023. If they keep it up for much longer, they could be pressing for a promotion in the near-future. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Even though we’re less than two months into the minor league season, we’re getting to the point where sample sizes for prospects start to require more serious discussion in terms of what comes next. Whether the organization decides to reward them with a promotion to the game’s next level is very much up in the air. But at the very least, the players are getting the attention of the Twins’ top-brass. Here are three players that should be in the conversation when the time comes to adjust the competition level. Pierson Ohl (High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels) After being drafted in the 14th-round of the 2021 draft, Ohl made only one appearance for the Florida complex league. But before that, he was a three-year starter for Grand Canyon University, where he started a total of 35 games. He had a career ERA of 2.99 in college, and while he didn’t get the fanfare of some other college arms in that draft class, he showed some strengths that led him to a professional career. In his final collegiate season, Ohl threw just over 100 innings of 2.60 ERA ball and averaged just over a strikeout per inning. Baseball America liked his plus-changeup and usable curveball, saying he was “the textbook example of a pitcher thriving on pitchability to compensate for a below-average fastball.” Without the comfort of a big heater, Ohl had to develop his off-speed as a swing-and-miss offering. He’s always been a pitcher with strong control, averaging just 1.3 walks per nine innings at GCU. That has carried over to professional ball, and has even reached new heights in his second year with the Twins Organization (0.69 BB/9). All in all, Ohl has a 2.77 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and just two walks in the season’s first month. Yes, that’s a small sample, but players with three or more seasons at the collegiate level under their belts tend to progress quickly – or not at all. If Ohl keeps pitching like he has thus far, a promotion to Double-A Wichita is a reasonable jump since he’s going to turn 24-years-old later this summer. Blayne Enlow (Double-A Wichita Wind Surge) There was much ballyhoo in January when the Twins placed Enlow on outright waivers. He was the odd man out when the club needed to make room on the 40-man roster for the newly-acquired Oliver Ortega. The logic behind the decision was sound, as the team needed to bring in some competition for their bullpen spots, and Enlow was still easing back into his development after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. He had become somewhat of an afterthought on the depth chart, but many were still disappointed to see him cut from the roster. After all, he was drafted in the third round of the 2017 draft and was touted as a first-round talent that only slipped due to signability concerns. The Twins were able to give him an over-slot offer after saving some funds by taking Royce Lewis first overall. They liked Enlow for his lethal curveball and his big-league starter upside coming out of high school. Now in 2023, he’s starting to show flashes of that potential in the upper-minors. Through seven starts with Double-A Wichita, the 24-year-old right-hander has a solid 3.28 ERA, but he’s striking out 31.8% of opponents and limiting his walks back to the levels he was showing pre-surgery. He had a rough go results-wise upon returning to the hill last season, especially when it came to control (11.6% walk rate), so it’s nice to see him button this up so far in 2023 with just a 6.8% walk rate. Now that more time has passed since his procedure, he’s showing why fans were worried about another team claiming him when he was outrighted. He’s benefitted from adding a pitch to his repertoire – something he has in common with a handful of arms on the Twins’ staff. “Like several other Twins pitchers, he’s added a sweeper to the mix this year, giving him five usable offerings and some potential for untapped upside as he gets more comfortable with it,” Aaron Gleeman said in a recent piece for The Athletic. “Durability and consistency will be key, but Enlow is still young enough to get back on the prospect map.” Jordan Balazovic (Triple-A St. Paul Saints) The former fifth-round pick in the 2016 draft has lost some of his luster since being a back-end Top 100 prospect a few years ago. He battled various injuries, most notably a left knee injury that affected his delivery for much of last season. He was then sidelined for the first few weeks of spring training after breaking his jaw in an off-field incident. It was a real punch to the face for the 24-year-old, both figuratively and literally. But Balazovic has found a way to put the past behind him, and has had an impressive first month at Triple-A with the Saints. On the year, he has a 2.89 ERA across 18 ⅔ innings pitched. He has made eight appearances (three starts), and seems to be the ideal candidate for the Twins’ desire to find a crop of arms to be bulk relievers. If all goes well, he’ll get a promotion to the major league club as a low-leverage reliever that can sop up innings if a starter departs early, or if the score gets out of reach for either team. And by all accounts, all is going well so far for Balazovic. His strikeout numbers are strong (12.5 K/9) thanks to a very strong 14.6% swinging-strike rate, and he’s only allowed one home run, which was his biggest crux in 2022 when he allowed 20 bombs. Scouts praise his curveball as his best offering, and his splitter draws solid marks, as well. If he can limit the damage done against his fastball, he’ll take the next step as an MLB-ready arm entering the prime seasons of his career. What do you think? Are we going to see any of these three at the next level in 2023? Who else has impressed you enough to deserve a promotion? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. View full article