Rod Carews Birthday

This is kind of a weird stat, but it’s interesting none-the-less. I think you are very correct in saying that it is more favorable to position players in general and highly punitive to relief pitchers. Those guys largely go unnoticed unless they blow the game and don’t get enough credit for the “hold”. What I am most skeptical about is that this stat is or isn’t predictive or really that representative of a player’s output. How much is just luck? How much is opportunity, and opportunity cost? Interesting exercise (and thanks for doing the work), but not entirely sure what it tells us.

The first part of the list, 16-20, made me a little queasy and generally unexcited. Spots 11-15 made me feel a little better. Now, 6-10 at least make me feel like there is some potential there. The two pitchers at the back end are unproven but certainly promising. Buxton, while frustrating at times, is still Buxton. I'm a big E-Rod fan. I don't know if his act will play in the majors, but it certainly could if he can stay healthy. He probably has just as good a shot at Rookie of the Year as Walker Jenkins -- who actually scares me a little. I honestly like your take on SWR. He gets absolutely no love from anyone but still has managed to be a mostly productive pitcher that keeps the back of the rotation from being a big mess. If he's our #4/5, I'm pleased because it means we've got a pretty good #1-3 (come on Ober!). He feels like the opposite of Brooks Lee, the guy who everyone "just knew" would be a star who "can't miss" and has proven nothing. SWR, on the other hand, (and I know he had a good pedigree coming over from Toronto), everyone seems to want to write off as a mere placeholder, and yet, here he is, still holding down a spot in the rotation. Barring injury, he'll still be in the rotation in 2027 as well, and that's what makes him valuable.

While it's obvious that in MLB not all markets are created equal, I find it very difficult to imagine how they could have lost that much money only from their baseball team. Do I think that they could have lost it in the commercial real estate market? Sure, but the choice to pin that on the Twins was theirs, not the fault of the gods, the fans, the players, or the management. This really is the same playbook, just repeated with different "fill in the blanks" style numbers. Time for a new playbook and new ownership. A couple of weeks ago, I stated that I would happily give Tom Pohlad a chance to be a good CEO, provided he came through on changing the narrative. It's not looking positive so far. Clock is ticking Tom. Clock is ticking.

The good news, if there is any, is that there are plenty of guys who can ride the St. Paul express back and forth between AAA and MLB. That means that they will probably have in essence a 10 or 11 man bullpen, rather than an 8 man bullpen. Not that all of those guys will be successful, but it does create a backup plan to the backup plan. Would a veteran reliever with closing experience be nice? Sure. You bet. But I don't think it's a disaster at all without one. Duran, Nathan, Guardado were all failed starters who we counted on to become shut down relievers, and they did it -- without any closing experience. I recall some guy named Hawkins also did something like that. He might be useful this year.

Rabbits. . . . just like rabbits.

I will be as patient as Tom’s level of leadership will allow me to be. It means some meaningful spending additions. It means building an effective team. It means winning baseball. It means re-engaging the fan base. When/if there is failure on those accounts, he will lose my support, just as he should have previously pulled his support from the baseball people who were making bad decisions. I don’t know. Maybe he did, but we don’t know either way and need to move on from here. I’m not naive. It’s going to take some time. I’m also not stupid. It’s going to take some investment and effort on his part as well. It’s your gig now, Tom. Let’s see what you’ve got. I am and will remain a fan of the Twins, but Tom, you could make this a LOT easier if you try.

I’m not expecting miracles, but this might indicate at least a little bit of potential for movement. Maybe Tom is the guy that has been screaming at family board meetings to do something. Maybe he’s not and is just acting this way. We can’t actually I know. I, however, am willing to give him a.chance to do some good work. Right now that’s all we can hang our hat on. Let’s see what happens. The leadership of the past two years was mighty poor, so the bar is low. In that realm, I’m willing to let change happen relatively slowly as long as there appears to be a positive direction. There will always be corporate speak in every organization. We all know that. I just hope that it doesn’t run things around here.

I think that part of (maybe all of) the problem is that the Twins don't have players who are particularly good defensively that aren't named Buxton, AND those same players (sans Keaschall and maybe Wallner) aren't good enough offensively to really carry the day that way either. Positional flexibility is a fantastic thing! See Gonzalez, Marwin. . . see Castro, Willi. . . see Tovar, Cesar. It helps to start with players that are good at it though.

Now there's an idea!

At best, combining Lewis (the most accomplished so far, I guess, but. . . ), Lee (still waiting. . . . ), Keaschall (extremely SSS), and Culpepper (still in MiLB) seems like it could be an adequate infield. Calling it anything like a pipeline at this point is premature. IF all of those work out, we could be OK in the infield. So far we don't have any true stars there. As fans, sometimes we forget that almost every player that experiences a few years of success in the majors was not just good in the minors, but often a big star in the minors. Even then, they don't all work out. Every team has guys just like these guys. The teams that are successful are the ones where they work out or who trade for or sign guys that do. My fingers are crossed, but let's stay realistic as well.

Nope. If there are any extensions, they should be for Joe Ryan or perhaps Ryan Jeffers. Keaschall is intriguing, but I'm not ready for it. He has plenty left to prove. I'm not willing to gamble on either Lewis or Lee developing. Wallner is too old to extend.

Thought provoking article Nick. On one hand, our deep-seated (and well-deserved) disdain for ownership and management has us convinced that the sky is falling (it might be, but that’s not a sure thing either). On the other, a projection like this gives me hope that things aren’t as bad as they seem. A little objectivity will do that for you sometimes. My hope is that ownership/management takes this to heart and finds some quarters in the seat cushions to add to this team in meaningful places. Nobody can make this team World Series contenders, but reasonably competitive isn’t outside the realm of possibilities. I know I am in the minority on this, but I don’t think that the Twins should be tearing down this team further. I lived through several periods of the dark days in the 1970’s, 1980’s and 1990’s. It wasn’t pretty or fun to watch Ron Coomer be the best player on the team. Let’s not do that again.

This is exactly my fear about tearing it down. If submitting to two (or more) years of terrible 100+ loss baseball, to be followed (if everything goes pretty well actually) by a team that is about the same as 2025, what have we gained? I’m probably in the minority, but I would rather watch and cheer for an 82-87 win team than watch a train wreck for two plus years with only a faint hope that the team will actually be better than it is now.

Rumors are out there for many reasons. One, there is some truth in them and they are based on real things. BUT, two, they are planted by various parties and fed to sports reporters so they can get a particular spin out there. I’m guessing there is some truth out there, but there is also a lot of ether. Reader beware. As for trading Lopez or Ryan, here’s how I look at it. If you are trying to build a winning team, you need to have (IMO order of importance) good starting pitching, good offensive production, a good bullpen, and at least a modicum of defense. The Twins have mostly crummy defense, a non-existent bullpen, mediocre/inconsistent offense, and good starting pitching. I also think that the odds of them developing a bullpen from the multitude of pitching prospects are strong, but will take time. So. . . the pitching side is OK. The offense and fielding are not. If there was ever a time to sign some hitters in the free agent market, it is now, but I digress. . . sigh! So, by my logic (and YMMV) it seems ridiculous to trade away the strength of your team (two semi-ace starters) to solidify other aspects unless you think that you have so many solid (or potentially solid) starting pitchers that they won’t be missed. I don’t see that because I’m not sure who I would project as being as good as or better than Pablo and Joe that is currently at/near the top of the minor league food chain. Taking them away means that now the starting pitching is where the offense has been for the past year or more. AND, you are no longer on the right side of the bar in any of the four categories. Because Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer trades so seldom happen, the prospects you acquire will (at best) be helpful in the future, and the best ones (most potential, most risk, farthest from the majors) won’t help for several season or maybe ever. In the meantime, you have completely jettisoned any chance of being competitive for at least a couple of seasons. Living through the early 80’s and late 90’s has made me never want to do that again. Thinking that “tanking” now will mean we are really good in a couple of years is a short-sighted view. Is it POSSIBLE that the Twins get an offer that blows them away? Sure. Anything is possible, but when was the last time that happened? Probably it was the trade that brought us Joe Nathan, et al many years ago (and I’m not sure that wasn’t just dumb luck). I’m not holding my breath for that.

I completely agree that any good bullpen building that happens this year needs to come from the starter pool that they have amassed. It will be challenging for sure to convince guys to make the move, but come spring training, it will probably be apparent to the pitchers that they are #8 or #9 in the starting pitcher pecking order. When faced with taking a bullpen role or going back to AAA, possibly to only get a spot start in the majors, that may loosen their stance a bit. Hopefully the guys are smart enough, and the Twins are transparent enough with them to make the transition go smoothly.

Your last sentence is absolutely correct. The problem is that the Pohlads have done nothing but tear it down in the last two years so there is no trust built up with the fans to think that there will be a decent payroll. Do Yankees fans worry that the team might not try to spend enough to be competitive? Of course not. Unfortunately there can be no trust with the current ownership.

I can pretty much agree with everything said here. Too many folks are convinced of a better outcome by stripping it down to the studs and selling off anybody with any value. If they do that, they MIGHT be back to the 2025 squad in 2028 IF they do things right and there are no hiccups. Really. What are the odds that they do everything right and everything goes well? I have more faith in building around the current rotation and trying to supplement the offense, while rebuilding a bullpen on the fly. It may not be pretty either, but the odds of not being atrocious for the next to years are probably much higher. I remember the late 90’s, and the early 80’s. Don’t need to live through that again.

Yes please. He seems like a good fit if the numbers can work. And that’s a mighty big IF!

There isn’t really a great answer in the short term unless some players really step forward. Two thoughts. One thought would be to mess with Buxton batting leadoff, replacing him with Luke Keaschall, and moving him to batting third. The problem that presents would be losing the spark he provides with the occasional leadoff home run. The other thought is, if Larnach is an OK option, why not Wallner — yes, slightly less OBP, but overall a better hitter. The chief complaint this year was that Wallner didn’t drive in enough runs for all of his power. Batting #3 would likely change that if the hitters in the first two spots do their job.

A bunch of day traders in a long term activity, but they are certainly loud!

By logic and on paper, Hawkins should be a terrific hire. Now we need to see if either of those things translate. He will have his work cut out for him trying to make a bullpen work out of some questionable parts (with potential, but still questionable). He’s an easy guy to root for in the role. Go get’’em Hawk!

Oddly, Jay Bell is also listed as a top prospect of the Cleveland Guardians as well. The guy got around. It would be nice to see Walker Jenkins supplant him on the Twins’ mountain. An admittedly non-statistical analysis of the data seems to indicate a lot of hit or miss for a lot of prospects on a lot of teams. It could be an indictment of the developmental track record of teams, including the Twins, but it can also be an indictment of Baseball America’s ability to pick prospect lists — or anyone else’s for that matter. Are teams failing to develop or is picking top prospects merely a somewhat educated guess? It is certainly something to think about when people are clamoring for some team’s number one prospect in a trade, or when we think there is always a major difference to be had in ranked prospects just a couple of spots apart.

We won’t know until he starts coaching, but I think Hawkins is potentially a terrific hire for the team. He’s a regular guy who carved out a long career in the majors by adapting and adjusting. The Twins need more of that all the way around.

Also, have you ever seen Berninger and Shelton in the room at the same time? I think not. For that matter, did you ever see Tom Kelly in the same room with the Queen of England? Hmmmm. . . .

You bring up a good point. We seem to be hiring a lot of good people, but they achieve their biggest successes only after they leave the Twins. Certainly small sample size is a big factor in this, but I think it also has to do with a lack of talent depth on the team. Sure, we have Buxton, Ryan, and Pablo (and even Buxton has been more promise than achievement until recently), but maybe guys like Lee, Sands, SWR, Miranda, Julien, and Larnach just aren’t that talented. It’s a big step from AAA to the majors, and probably an even bigger one to stardom. We have guys who can make it to the league but seemingly can’t take that next step. Unfortunately for coaches and managers, they’re easier to fire than the players.