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GM64

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Everything posted by GM64

  1. GM64
    Can you give us the roster that led you to say a $124M payroll? I was penciling that out just earlier today, and I came up about 6 million less. I realize that’s fairly close as things go, but at the same time there’s very little uncertainty in the pay of players now on the roster. The vast majority are either under contract for a set pay, or are pre-arbitration at a fixed base salary. So I’m thinking I must be making some significant miscalculations regarding what the arbitration eligible players will get.
  2. GM64
    My early guess as to a player comp is Bill Madlock. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/madlobi01.shtml
  3. GM64
    Arraez finished his regular season hitting .334 in 366 Plate Appearances. He turned 22 in April. The entire list of players since 1961 who hit for as high an average over as many plate appearances in their age 22 season (defined by Baseball-reference as still being 22 on June 30): Alex Rodriguez 1996 Vada Pinson 1961 That's it. Continuing the list back to 1901 (formation of AL) -- fun to look at. [And I had forgotten Williams was only in his age 22 season in 1941 when he hit .406. Al Kaline 1955 Stan Musial 1943 Pete Reiser 1941 Ted Williams 1941 Ted Williams 1940 Charlie Keller 1939 Joe DiMaggio 1937 Roy Weatherly 1936 Jimmie Foxx 1930 Mel Ott 1930 Jimmie Foxx 1929 Lloyd Waner 1928 Freddie Lindstrom 1928 Lloyd Waner 1927 Heinie Manush 1923 Tris Speaker 1910 Ty Cobb 1909 Eddie Collins 1909 Ty Cobb 1907 Jimmy Scheckard 1901
  4. GM64
    Complete list of players since 1961 who, during or before their age 22 Season, had a season with at least 250 plate appearances and a BA of at least .333 Matt Kemp 2007 age 22 311 PA .342 Brian McCann 2006 age 22 492 PA .333 Alex Rodriguez 1996 age 20 677 PA .358 Vada Pinson 1961 age 22 660 PA .343 That's it. Arraez has 294 PA and is currently hitting .340
  5. GM64
    I was curious how rare the start of Wade's big league career was: (7 BBs before his first hit). I don't have the means of testing that (the first X plate appearances, regardless of how many others there are), but I used the Play Index on Baseball Reference to look for players since 1961 who met the following criteria in their first season: 1. at least 60 plate plate appearances (given the outfield injuries and where Wade ranks in the pecking order, I think that may be about right --- starting half the games gets him there). 2. non-pitcher 3. more BB than H 21 players: Jake Rogers for Detroit is currently on track to do it. And old friend Eric Soderholm of the Twins, in 1972 did it. If you limit it to those with an OBP over .300 (As we may reasonably hope Wade performs), to eliminate those who simply stunk at the plate, the list contains only 12. Soderholm is one who drops out. And none of the 12 is anything approaching a household name. J.P. Crawford 2017 Colin Walsh 2016 Brett Jackson 2012 Felipe Crespo 1996 Ralph Milliard 1996 Greg Tubbs 1993 Jeff Manto 1990 Billy Jo Robidoux 1985 Al Chambers 1983 Glenn Gulliver 1982 Bobby Brooks 1969 Joe Lahoud 1968
  6. GM64
    The Kepler vs. Bauer thing reminded me of listening to the radio as a small kid and hearing how Craig Kusick owned Frank Tanana. This was the first iteration of Tanana -- flame-throwing lefty paired with Nolan Ryan -- pitching for the Angels. So I looked it up on Baseball Reference ---- not bad. 59 PA, 16 walks. 16-42 with 3 2B and 4 HR. .381 / .542 / 1.280
  7. GM64
    It looks not so much like the arm-into-the-shoulder Position is any different, but rather that at the pelvis he is no longer leaning left. Much more straight up and down. There does also seem to be a little less tilt in the elbow, but I think the majority of the difference in angle has to do with his more vertical trunk position.
  8. GM64
    First: Max Kepler, Ersteblitzen! As to the recaps: I see on average a few innings of about one-third of the games, but read about every game. I like the win expectancy charts. In combination with the box score, it tells me a lot.
  9. GM64
    Kepler at leadoff --- Ersteblitze .
  10. GM64
    How about Ersteblitzen? (Air-ste-blitz-en) Means first lightning, or first flash.
  11. GM64
    Maybe it is just the angle from which I'm seeing the at bats, but holy cow does it look like Kirilloff loads up as the ball is delivered.
  12. GM64
    There is a lot to this -- at least for me. The joke is sports fans cheer for laundry -- anyone will do, so long as the uniform is the right one. But it's more than that. There has to be some continuity in a franchise. We ("we" being people like me) also want to know a bit about the players -- it's why we follow the minor leagues. If I don't know who anyone on the team is, I'm not interested. Some change, sure, and especially with the guys who appear for 60 or 70 innings a year (bullpens roll over and over and I don't care that much). That tapestry is woven in part by short-term players who help a team excel in the short term -- Carl Willis, Chili Davis, etc., and the mid-term guys, too, Brunansky, Tapani, Cordova, Baker. But some long threads are necessary, too -- Hrbek, Puckett, Bush, Radke, Hocking, Mauer -- the players who tell you this is the same team it was 8, 10 or 12 years ago. At least, that's one fan's opinion.
  13. GM64
    He reminds me a lot of Randy Bush -- who was an important piece on some very good teams. Bush slugged a bit better, had a little worse OBP -- had a 102 OPS+ (101 for Grossman), and hit only left-handed. I think Grossman is victim of his era. There were 14 (or even 15, but mostly 14) hitters on a MLB team during Bush's time. There was room for someone who was just a professional hitter and a fringe adequate fielder. Grossman is not at all a bad 14th piece -- can pinch hit, CAN play the field, though not well. CAN play a larger role for a couple weeks if necessary, etc. But there is no 14th piece.
  14. GM64
    With Sano’s injury perhaps forcing him into a sole DH role, at least for a portion of the season, any RH bat must either be a good corner outfielder or an acceptable starting 3b. I think Escobar can be an acceptable 3b, short term, so I prefer an OF.
  15. GM64
    I know we will find out soon, but I am still wondering about a couple things: 1. 10 pictures or 11? And who? Santana, Berrios, Belisle, Hildenberger, Rogers, Busnitz, Boshers, are the givens. That's 7. How many, and who, of these: Moya, Pressly, Gee, Duffey? 2. There would then be 14 or 15 hitters infielders: I am unsure who gets the last couple spots. Castro, Gimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianza, Escobar, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Grossman, Granite are certain. That's 13. So 1 or 2 more. [i consider 3, and a pitching staff of 9, possible-- but I would be extremely a surprised ] That leaves Vargas, Garver, and Goodrum. There won't be much pinch hitting with this line up. Kepler against a lefty, and maybe Castro. Other replacements would be FOR replacements. Injuries, or hitting for a previous a pinch runner. Sano or Grossman is the main PH (whichever doesn't DH). If there is going to be another PH, it's Vargas. He can also cover first base defensively, so Adrianza can be somewhere else. That's 14. If 15, the next one is Garver. Emergency catcher. Can't come down to Escobar behind the plate in case of injury. Goodrum can back up anywhere, but Adrianza and Granite allow for complete coverage. I would take the 15 named, and fill out the bullpen to 10 with Moya, Gee, and a coin flip. Duffey or Ptessly?
  16. GM64
    Final spots -- 10 pitchers are suffcient for one game. Need to provide for emergencies and multiple PR, PH situations. This is not a game where you can afford to run out of bench. Two outfielders collide and you need to replace them, but still have a back up in the filter and a pinch runner and so on. So my four final spots contain no pitchers: Granite - The most likely to get used -- as a pinch runner, and outfield fepth in case of injury or pinchhitting for Kepler) Vargas PH, Mauer backup in case of injury. Goodrum PR, emergency anything Garver. ( PR/PH for Castro, and want to do it again for Gimenez-- can't put Escobar back there w)
  17. GM64
    Yeah -- I meant to have 11 pitchers --- and if you count carefully you'll see I inadvertently have 26 on the roster. So ---- What pitcher to remove? Duffey? Busnitz?
  18. GM64
    If that's true, then yes, 9 pitchers would be more than enough, and you can keep every bench player. But yes -- I am thinking about a multi-game playoff series. Otherwise the fringes of the roster #24, #25, really don't matter.
  19. GM64
    Assumes no Sano --- SP Santana SP Berrios SP Gibson SP Mejia, gotta be. RP Belisle RP Rogers RP Hildenberger RP Gee (pitching decently, and we need a long guy RP Pressly RP Busenitz RP Duffey RP Boshers (need a lefty – who else?) C Castro 1B Mauer 2B Dozier SS Polanco 3B Escobar OF Buxton OF Rosario OF Kepler Bench Grossman (DH, PH) Bench Adrianza (IF, LF) Bench Gimenez © Bench Granite (need a backup OF, pinch-runner) Bench Vargas (power off the bench, can take over first if Mauer injured – that’s all I can say) Bench Garver (third catcher allows free pinch-hitting and pinch-running for catchers – RH bat) Iimagine Sano replaces Garver (based on playing time this week) -- but I might be inclined to take Garver instead.
  20. GM64
    per Fangraphs: # Name WPA -WPA +WPA 1 Joe Mauer 2.43 -6.62 9.05 2 Miguel Sano 1.74 -7.42 9.16 3 Robbie Grossman 1.62 -5.05 6.67 4 Brian Dozier 0.92 -9.13 10.05 5 Max Kepler 0.85 -6.91 7.76 6 Ervin Santana 0.39 -0.08 0.47 7 Jorge Polanco 0.32 -6.74 7.06 8 Eddie Rosario 0.19 -7.61 7.79 9 Byron Buxton 0.00 -5.60 5.60 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d
  21. GM64
    Looking at the 40-man roster, I think it almost has to be two of Wimmers, Belisle, and Breslow that get DFA'd. I realize that would mean a third player must come up, but I can't find a minor-leaguer I think the Twins should drop from the 40-man. I suppose maybe the Twins would drop Palka or Murphy, but that would be surprising.
  22. GM64
    To make room for all this movement, several (5, 6?) folks at Rochester need to simply be let go --- or a mix of folks -- a couple from each of three or four teams. I'm wondering who those folks are. It can't be just the fringes of each team's roster, that won't provide the necessary playing time.
  23. GM64
    This is merely an observation -- thecalled-strike graphic indicates three in-zone pitches were called balls and three out-of-zone pitches were called strikes. Net zero. The all-unhit-pitches graphic looks impressive, but includes swinging misses. Maybe Castro's ability to get calls influences out-of-zone swings, but that's certainly not a given. Again --Castro's framing may be fantastic -- but I don't see how this single-day's data shows any positive effect, even about the day.
  24. GM64
  25. GM64
    Well look what I found! Starring Hector Santiago. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-PWE9sLkSLY
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