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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done? Their top 5 hitters in AB: Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials Cespedes - Age 27, rookie Weeks - Age 25, second full season Crisp - 33, veteran Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter Top 5 Pitchers (IP) Milone - 25, rookie Parker - 24, rookie Colon - 39, veteran McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?
  2. Physics Guy
    They were also 81-81 in '84. Looking at the pitching staffs they sported prior to '86, I think we at least have the promise of performing better than those within two or three years. I'd be more encouraged if we could add one SP in the Jackson/Sanchez mold during that time. I understand your pessimism, but things can get better quickly as evidenced in '90 and '91. I realize we have sunk further than '90 at this point, but I don't think it has to take five years to turn this around. Anyways, I'm not sure why I'm wasting my breath, since I have no chance of changing your mind.
  3. Physics Guy
    If ALL OF OUR PROSPECTS come up we will be trading some of them because we won't have enough spots for them. As for RIGHT AWAY, by 2016: Parmelee 28 yrs old, 3+ yrs in MLB Dozier 29, 3+ Plouffe 30, 4+ Arcia 25, 2/2+ Hicks 26, 2+/3 Benson, 2? Add Mauer and anybody else they add to the team to fill holes and it's not exactly like we're playing a bunch of rookies. I'm obviously more optimistic than you, but I'd say Parmelee and Plouffe have a decent chance to be at least 1-2 WAR players. I did some minor league comparisons and Arcia compares favorably with Cuddyer and Kubel with Arcia slightly more advanced. Cuddy and Kubel both put up 20+HR and 100 RBI at 27. Hicks' minors numbers compare favorably with Hunter who by age 25 hit 27/92 and was an All-Star at 26. Hicks probably doesn't hit for quite as much power but has better plate discipline. Both cases are probably near their ceilings, but it's also reasonable to assume they are at least league average by 2016. There is a decent chance neither Dozier nor Benson work out, but they have other guys to fill in for them prior to 2016.
  4. Physics Guy
    My point in listing at least two guys at each position in my previous post is that at least they have some options and aren't pinning their hopes on one guy. Certainly some of these guys will not make it, but most are pretty highly thought of prospects. C and 3B are my biggest concerns. Mauer maybe won't catch at all by then and it doesn't seem as though we have an obvious replacement. Sano is no guarantee at 3B (although there is a decent chance) and Plouffe needs to prove he can do it for a full season.
  5. Physics Guy
    Here is what the article stated: "This doesn't mean this is the only year that the team can contend, but rather which year should provide it the best chance for a World Series title." Here's what I think is reasonable: 2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year 2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season 2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point 2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready? 2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes Obviously there will be holes to deal with (SS,3B or C), but Ryan has payroll flexibility. I doubt he uses a significant amount of it in FA, but maybe he would trade for a solution to those holes (taking on some payroll). 2017 Lineup C - Mauer?, Herrmann? 1B - Parmelle, Mauer, Sano? 2B - Dozier, Rosario SS - Santana, Polanco 3B - Plouffe, Sano? LF - Arcia, Roberts CF - Hicks, Buxton RF - Benson, Kepler SP - Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, May, Wimmers, Berrios
  6. Physics Guy
    Thanks for stating exactly what I was thinking. You read all the time about teams holding back their top prospects to preserve team control, yet I don't recall a situation where I felt the Twins were doing that. For a team that doesn't seem to want to spend money it would be the smart thing to do. I generally am supportive of what Ryan does, but this is one area I think the Twins don't make good decisions. As for the individual players, I agree with keeping Gibson on a pitch count in the minors for the first 6 weeks. His post-surgery situation makes it easy to justify. I think Mastro would be fine as a fill-in for the first few weeks, so start Hicks in AAA. The team control is important, arbitration not so much. The Super-2 is hard to predict anyways and I don't think I would support keeping Hicks down that long unless Mastro tears it up in April and May.
  7. Physics Guy
    To piggy-back on my last post, that is exactly why Boston wouldn't even consider it. I'm not trying to pick on JD because I see this sort of thing all the time on here. You can't just throw a bunch of guys together that aren't our top prospects and expect to get something great in return. The only way Boston would consider it (although Bogaerts is probably untouchable) is if we include a top 5 prospect at an area of need for them.
  8. Physics Guy
    Sorry, but that is pretty crazy. No team is going to trade arguably their top prospect for Morneau and a bunch of sub-top 10 prospects. Quantity does not make up for quality. As much as I love Morneau, he just isn't worth that much. If he were, wouldn't they have traded him last year at the deadline. The other three guys are just throw-ins to try to sweeten the pot.
  9. Physics Guy
    That's exactly what the Twins should have done with another 23 year old who went 7-15 with a 5.49 ERA back in '83. Frankie V only came back the next season to go 18-12 with a 3.21 ERA.
  10. Physics Guy
    Who knows, maybe this is his chance like Span got when Gomez couldn't handle the job. At the time people weren't too high on Span.
  11. Physics Guy
    I know this goes against the prevailing opinion here, but I'd rather see them give a legit chance to Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B. They will both be 26 this season and if they are ever more than utility players they need to prove it now. Carroll is the perfect utility guy as he can play all three IF spots. Leave Escobar in AAA to play SS.
  12. Physics Guy
    Agreed that putting Mastro in CF isn't a problem. Leading off is up for debate but I don't see the harm in giving him a shot if Hicks isn't ready (or Benson). When they made the trades I did the same research and didn't think Mastro's numbers were horrible for a lead off, at least short term. He certainly runs the base paths the way Gardy prefers in a lead off guy. Big picture, he probably isn't there for the long haul. As stated earlier, this would be low on the list of "problems" to fix.
  13. Physics Guy
    Sorry for my last post being off-topic, this is really a Vilanueva thread. I would much rather have Villanueva than Correia. He has shown he can pitch in the AL and would be fine in the bullpen if Gibson and/or Pelfrey are able to move into the rotation (which I think is questionable to start the season).
  14. Physics Guy
    I see no problem with a "league-average" pitcher taking one of the #3-5 spots in rotation. He would be #1 right now. Even if May, Meyer and Gibson all work out, Worley and Jackson can fill out the rest of the rotation.
  15. Physics Guy
    Per ESPN: "The Chicago Cubs are moving closer to completion on a four-year, $52 million deal with Edwin Jackson, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Thursday." Being as this offer is pretty close to most of the speculation thus far, I find it hard to believe that Ryan came anywhere near this offer. He either doesn't understand the "going-rate" for starting pitchers (I doubt it) or he is so risk-averse to big contracts for pitchers (more likely). I don't see him coming anywhere near Willingham's total contract for any pitcher this year. I don't see how that gets us a "pretty darn-good" pitcher. I have been happy with most of his moves this year, but I am disappointed with his "quantity over quality" approach to filling out the rotation.
  16. Physics Guy
    Sounds like Slama. Don't we already have too many guys for the 'pen?
  17. Physics Guy
    I'm with you on hoping Hendriks is destined for better days. I believe I looked a few weeks back and saw similar numbers to Liam from Frankie V and Milton when they first came up. I just wish Gardy would give him the time that Kelly gave the other two. I'd say he has nothing to lose as most don't expect much from the Twins this year, but another bad season costs Gardy his job. I hope Liam gets out of the gates quickly this year.
  18. Physics Guy
    That last question was referring to anybody currently on the team receiving a contract approaching $50M in the next three years.
  19. Physics Guy
    Honest question for you: Do you see Ryan committing those savings to a "front of the rotation" guy? Greinke and maybe Sanchez were the only guys of that type this year and he went nowhere near them. In theory it's a great idea, I just don't think Ryan will ever pony up $50+M for a FA. I REALLY hope I am wrong, but I just don't think it's in his genetics. The only big contracts the offer are to guys already in the system. Do you see any players on the team currently that is going to receive any contract approaching that?
  20. Physics Guy
    I'll throw my 2 cents (or less). Marcum and Jackson are clearly the two best pitchers left in my opinion. It can be argued that either one is more valuable than the other, depending on what you value. Marcum has better rate stats, but he doesn't have a contract yet due to his injury issues last year. Jackson does not have the rate stats and doesn't have the AL resume that Marcum does, but he did pitch over 180 innings in each of the past 5 years. TR seems to be very leery of a big contract to a pitcher who may not be able to pitch out his contract. If I were to bet on which Ryan values more, I would guess that he prefers Jackson because of his durability. At this point I honestly don't see TR going after either. From Bonnes' interview with TR: JB: It sounds like you’re sitting back and seeing what in the market comes to you, as opposed to aggressively chasing a couple of targets. TR: If I do that, we’ll probably be holding the bag. You know pitching is going to go off the board. We certainly have to be looking at it. That makes it sound an awful lot like he just hasn't liked the numbers and years that have been thrown around thus far. If one of them gets stuck signing a contract like Jackson did last year, then I'd say we have a chance. I'm disappointed because I really thought after reading the interview that he would be willing to sign a #2/#3 pitcher at the going rate, but he's given no indication that he is willing to do that yet. I am resigned to the fact that we MIGHT get Saunders or Myers and that is it.
  21. Physics Guy
    I'd say Slowey is a good comp: Hendriks through Age 23 in the minors: 482IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 7.9/1.6 K9/BB9 Slowey (Age 28) 466.1, 2.45., 0.934, 8.4/1.4 Walters (Age 27 - really, you think he is better Rick?) 760.1, 4.06, 1.349, 8.4/3.1
  22. Physics Guy
    Who said Diamond was a top of the rotation starter? He's the top of the TWINS rotation at this point by default, but let's not get delusional. I don't think anybody thinks he's more than a #3, nor does Ryan. He was very consistent last year and may regress some, but no reason to think he can't make all his starts next year. I doubt Gibson is in the rotation to start. The Twins are most likely going to limit his innings this year so I don't see how he makes more starts than Diamond. I can see Worley maybe, but the elbow surgery may hamper him some early in the season.
  23. Physics Guy
    I would be happy with any of those and think they are all reasonable. After last season, I would think Jackson would jump at that. We was hoping for 3/30 last year and settled for 1/10, I think.
  24. Physics Guy
    Again, this is one man's opinion, but from KLaw's chat this week: "I think they'll end up with at least 7 guys (in his top 100). Rosario was on it last year, Gibson was on before he got hurt but he's actually better now with the new slider." His preseson had Sano (28), Rosario (50), May (76), Hicks (80) and Arcia (85). His midseason added Buxton at 18 and moved Sano and Rosario to 26 and 39. His comments on Gibson will put him up there and I think Meyer has a shot also, although I think May might fall from the top 100. I counted 17 who will no longer be eligible for his list (maybe more). I have to think Kepler may even have a chance. I'd say they have a decent chance to be top 5 for KLaw. The Padres had 6 last year on his preseason to 100 and Grandal and Alonso are no longer prospects (eligible for ROY).
  25. Physics Guy
    Agreed. 3 yrs for Jackson, 4 for Sanchez - which won't happen.
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