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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    I agree completely. My guess is 77 wins (+/- 5).
  2. Physics Guy
    Yes, KLaw saw him in the Arizona Fall League and gave a glowing report. I am not surprised he has him ranked that high.
  3. Physics Guy
    Love this quote for Arcia: "Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone..."
  4. Physics Guy
    I believe his Top 100 Prospects list comes out later this week. What is your guess on the order of our prospects? Since he had Buxton ahead of Sano midseason last year, here is my guess: Buxton Sano Meyer Rosario Gibson Hicks Arcia I don't necessarily agree with that order, but I'm guessing KLaw's is close to that.
  5. Physics Guy
    Sorry, I meant to do that also.
  6. Physics Guy
    Royals 11th Indians 19th Tigers 25th White Sox 28th I think this bodes well for 2014 and beyond. 2013 is another story for another thread.
  7. Physics Guy
    Keith Law has the Twins at #2 in his minor league systems rankings. "The Twins placed more players on my top 100 (seven) than any other team, only one of whom was initially signed by another organization, and they added a former top-100 guy, Trevor May, in a trade this offseason. Their system is particularly strong in center field, enough that they're working on converting Eddie Rosario to second base, and has more power arms with a chance to start than it has at any point in the past decade. The major league team is down, and isn't going to turn it all around in a year, but there's a lot of talent coming around which the Twins can build another contender."
  8. Physics Guy
    I see him in the mold of Radke, sans the changeup. He has to establish strike one. Pitching is much easier when you are ahead in the count. He doesn't have the stuff to pitch from behind in the count all of the time. Baseball Reference has a stat called sOPS+ which compares the pitchers splits at various counts versus the league average. Here is what his sOPS+ was: Ahead in the count: 110 Even: 159 Behind in the count: 140 Liam Hendriks 2012 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com Radke's for his career were: Ahead: 54 Even: 101 Behind 156 For Radke's rookie season: Ahead: 105 Even: 99 Behind: 125 Hopefully Hendriks finds the command and a more effective second pitch to come even close to Radke. Without a better secondary pitch he tops out as a #3 at best and more likely a #4.
  9. Physics Guy
    I think clearing the path is the right decision. In the past I had a problem with the way Gardy managed prospects that should be playing (Cuddy and Kubel come to mind). I felt those guys should have been left alone and allowed to play. I guess when a team is in contention the situation can be different. That should not be the case this year. There are four players in that situation this year IMO: Plouffe,Dozier, Parmelee and Hendriks. Unless they fall completely flat on their face, all three hitters should get 500+ AB and Hendriks should get 30 starts. I argued earlier for signing a Cedeno type player as insurance and I would still support that since I don't put Florimon in that category. I would put Hicks in that category if he comes up, but I would put him on a shorter leash since he hasn't proven himself in the higher minors yet.
  10. Physics Guy
    Yet his OPS is 85,82, 79 and 104 the past 4 years. Florimon had 61 last year. I realize it's a small sample, but Cedeno most likely produces more with the bat and he has proven he can actually play in the majors. I'm not saying Florimon doesn't have a chance to be a starter, but I'd like to have another option besides Carroll who we might need at 2B or 3B. $1.15M is pretty cheap insurance.
  11. Physics Guy
    I noticed Ronny Cedeno signed for 1.15M base plus 0.85 in incentives. That sure would have been a cheap insurance policy against Florimon falling on his face. I think Florimon has a chance to be a decent fielder, but his sub-70 OPS+ sure is a black hole at the bottom of the lineup. I guess I can live with one, but that assumes 2B and CF are decent (hopefully Dozier and Hicks).
  12. Physics Guy
    I'm not sure I follow your point. In what way am I manipulating stats? Do I even express an opinion on them leading you to think I am using them to make a point? Yes, I think Hendriks is the 5th starter. The only other possible option that is acceptable in my mind is Gibson and I am skeptical they will start him in the rotation. DeVries and Deduno are injury fill-ins at best with little upside. Unless Hendriks is horrible in ST he absolutely should be given the season to prove himself. I did not complete my post because I wanted to think about it, but was curious what others might have to say about the data. At first glance, the staff going into 2012 appears to be much stronger. The problem is that it is heavily weighted by a pitcher who the Twins realistically should have been worried about after pitching 12 innings the previous Aug and Sept (I know, hindsight). Pavano was 35 in 2011 and starting to show his age. I would say the 2013 staff has a good chance of producing a 5 or better in WAR this year. My guess (and that is all it is): Diamond 1.8 Worley 1.8 Correia 0 Pelfrey 0.8 Hendriks 0.8 Yes, I realize this is optimistic, but not out of the realm of possibility. This is clearly better than the 1.2 that the best combination of 5 starters put up last year (minus Blackburn's -2.3!!!). It's not a division winner, but at least it might be watchable.
  13. Physics Guy
    Hey look at this, we might actually be talking about baseball.
  14. Physics Guy
    I choose A. My thoughts are that Hicks will replace what Revere brought and then some, but maybe not fully until 2014. I can live with it. I loved having Revere on the team, but I doubt his ceiling is much higher than where he was. I think Ryan traded him at the perfect time. Hicks has a significantly higher upside. He potentially is a better OF, gets on base as much and will hit for more power. I am mostly happy with what Ryan has done, but I totally get that people aren't happy about the 2013 team. I wish he had been a little more patient and signed one of the many other pitchers that signed one year deals instead of signing Correia, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. Is it possible that DeVries or Deduno could have put up the same numbers as KC? Sure it is, but $5M per year isn't a huge cost. I'm not going to cry for Pohlad if next year's $5M is a waste. It won't financially prevent us from signing other players.
  15. Physics Guy
    Just a comparison of start of 2012 vs start of 2013 (using B.R. WAR from previous season): 2012 Baker 4.2 WAR (12 IP in Aug & Sept) Pavano 1.8 WAR (35 years old, 262 H against, 4.1 K/9) Liriano 0.6 Blackburn 0.5 Marquis 0.5 Total 6.6 2013 Diamond 2.2 Pelfrey 0.9 (TJ surgery during season) Worley 0.7 (3.2 previous, arm trouble last) Correia -0.1 Hendriks -1.2 Total 2.5 Not sure where I want to go with this, but I thought it was interesting. 2012 was heavily weighted by Baker's best year to date, but being hurt the last two months.
  16. Physics Guy
    Just give it up already. If you want to talk about baseball, talk about baseball and stop arguing with them. They want to vent, so let them vent and be done with it. Your arguing is just feeding the beast. At least half of this thread is about "stick banging". I couldn't care less that the Twins spent 2/$10M for Correia since it shouldn't have precluded them from making other signings. I don't understand the complaint about wasting $10M for Correia since the Twins have plenty of cash that will be left on the table. I do care that they didn't use the rest of the money they should have available. I have little doubt Correia will be an improvement over much of what they trotted out to the mound last year and as such should not be the focus of anger. I think there have been several references to Correia being the top signing. While this is probably true (Pelfrey may argue), my guess is that when Ryan traded Revere for Worley and May he felt that reduced the number of FA pitchers he needed to sign by one. Instead of signings, can we look at acquisitions? Isn't Worley a better acquisition than Correia?
  17. Physics Guy
    You stated this about Worley in the article: "His real weapon seems to be the slider/cutter that breaks inside on a right handed hitter." The movement you describe would be that of a cutter for a lefty. Since I am not familiar with Worley's pitches, I assume you were referring to a two-seam fastball or sinker since Worley is right-handed.
  18. Physics Guy
    Agreed and probably the prevailing opinion here.
  19. Physics Guy
    I think if Ryan adds to the payroll it will be by extending players he trades for rather than signings through FA. If enough of our prospects work out, I am hopeful of him trading away some of it for a couple of solid regulars that a team that is looking to rebuild wants to dump. Examples this year might be Annibal Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Blanton, Dempster ... I think TR would be more willing to sign one of those guys if he's already traded for him and had a chance to see him with the team for part of a season. Keep in mind I said "hopeful" he might do this, not that I expect it.
  20. Physics Guy
    After reading about the signing today I had a feeling we might get a post.
  21. Physics Guy
    I agree that the 2001 Twins were much more than Lawton/Radke. I'm also glad you said "arguably" because I would argue that Mauer and Morneau are likely to exceed Koskie and Hunter from 2001. They may not get the HR/RBI totals but their rate stats should be better (and were last year). Isn't it reasonable to conclude that Morneau's numbers should increase at least incrementally? 2001 Koskie 26 HR, 103 RBI, .276/.362/.488 121 OPS+ Hunter 27 HR, 92 RBI, .261/.306/.479 102 OPS+ 2013 Mauer 10 HR, 85 RBI, .319/.416/.446 141 OPS+ Morneau 19 HR, 77 RBI, .267/.333/.440 113 OPS+ I'll admit I've stayed out of most of the discussion regarding payroll and chose not to read most of the banter, but I have an honest question for those arguing that payroll should be higher or those complaining that it will be too low. Why does payroll necessarily have to be high for the team to be successful? By 2016 it is possible that only Mauer will have a large contract. A low payroll could mean simply that a large number of our prospects worked out and will only be reaching arbitration years. Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee and Dozier will be in their arbitration years but not yet FA. Hicks and Arcia could be in their first year of arbitration. Isn't there a situation where the Twins can have both a good team and a low payroll? I am sorry if this has been addressed already. I just don't have the energy to go through the entire thread at this point.
  22. Physics Guy
    Agreed, this is all speculation. We have no idea how Meyer, Gibson, et al will fare. All we can do is project from what the analysts say and I like our chances. Obviously Parker and Milone have produced at MLB level and our guys haven't yet, but the comparison is at least "reasonable" if not necessarily "likely". I feel much better that Ryan is the one making the decisions as opposed to Smith.
  23. Physics Guy
    Next time, read the whole thing... "Here's what I think is reasonable: 2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year 2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season 2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point 2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready? 2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes" ...then you would be right, we probably wouldn't be having the debate. I said it was what was reasonable all along, not necessarily likely. I don't think any of us have that good of a crystal ball. I will say that after looking back at '14 and '15 that might be a little agressive.
  24. Physics Guy
    So you are saying the Twins can't produce pitching from the minors to replace Parker and Milone? Parker may have been a more highly rated prospect than we have, but Gibson, Meyer and May have on found their names on top 100 lists. I couldn't find evidence of Milone being that highly rated. Colon, McCarthy and Blackley/Griffin can be replaced by what we already have and potentially a middle-tier FA in the next two years (although most would doubt the second part after this offseason). Parker - Meyer Milone - Gibson Colon - Worley McCarthy - Diamond #5 - Hendriks/May/Wimmers/Berrios
  25. Physics Guy
    And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?
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