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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    Could we be a little more pessimistic? Are we really trying to predict who will have a crappy season next year? Damn the Twins need to do something soon so we have something to talk about.
  2. Physics Guy
    John, I am confused about the point you are making. It seems you are saying that someone who has done well at AA should be ranked higher than someone in rookie ball. Is that your point? Yet, you state that Hicks and Rosario should be rated higher than Buxton and even Sano. Considering Rosario and Sano played at the same level (Beloit) last year, you lost me. Roger, I suspect that John meant to say Arcia rather than Rosario. Otherwise, I see your point.
  3. Physics Guy
    I agree on the middle ground, which I suspect is Ryan's position. We need to acquire several SP, but only ones who have the potential to be around in 2015. My hope is they sign Sanchez (only 28 years old) and trade for two young pitchers (Minor, Delgado, Hellickson, Paxton...). Those guys would make us better next year and get some experience for a run by 2015, maybe even 2014. The Twins should avoid any SP past his early thirties. I was pushing for Shields, but now I only think it makes sense if he will sign an extension. I don't want to see Willingham, Span or Morneau leave, but at least we have potential replacements for them. Without pitching we are just spinning our wheels towards another 60-70 win season.
  4. Physics Guy
    That depends of what you think they could get for Willingham. I would argue that Willingham had a career year and isn't likely to repeat it. If you can get a young middle of the rotation starter for Willingham and sign Hunter to replace him, I say go for it. Hunter's WAR last three years: 2.7, 3.4, 5.5. Willingham's: 2.6, 2.1, 2.9. Hunter doesn't suck in the OF and can still hit. If they can sign Hunter for 8-10M a year, it costs a net of 1-3M a year and potentially gains a pitcher in the process that the Twins don't seem to be willing to sign in FA (at least if the Baker deal is any indication - I know it's early yet). I'll repeat, I don't see this happening in the slightest, but I think it would improve the team.
  5. Physics Guy
    I know this will probably just make me your next target, but Dave you really need to get over it. Enough with the venom already towards Thrylos. You obviously have a grudge against him, but your ranting doesn't make the forum any better either. Your post in the other thread has to be one of the more mean-spirited ones I've read. Thrylos obviously was wrong and you will probably have the good fortune of not having to read his posts for awhile as he licks his wounds. I suggest that you do what I do when I come across messages from certain posters, just move on by and don't waste your time reading them.
  6. Physics Guy
    You give our pitchers way too much credit. We have one 4/5 and his name is Scott Diamond. The rest are AAAA guys at best.
  7. Physics Guy
    Another rookie agrees with you. I would amend it to keep Span. Trade Willingham and Morneau if you can sign Hunter for 2yrs and between 16 and 18M. Don't do it if he is in the 20-25M range. I like the Revere-Span-Hunter OF with Parmelle at 1B. This gives us a MUCH better defensive OF, allows us to pick up some pitching and possibly clear some money to go after additional FA. As Gleeman would say, there is a non-zero chance of that happening. It's fun to speculate, despite it being VERY unlikely. Also, having Torii around when Hicks and Arcia come up would be great.
  8. Physics Guy
    I've been thinking about the same thing. If they can get him for a yearly salary near Willingham's, I say go for it. This could give them some flexibility in the trade market. If you trade Willingham, Hunter could take LF. If they trade Morneau, then Parmelle plays 1B.
  9. Physics Guy
    Great point righty! He is an equal opportunity hater. He just calls it like he sees it.
  10. Physics Guy
    1) Santanta 2) Blyleven 3) Kaat 4) Perry 5) Viola 6) Pascual 7) Radke 8) Goltz 9) Nathan 10) Aguilera
  11. Physics Guy
    From an article by Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post in which they talk about Davey Johnson being done after 2013: "Rizzo has said he wants Johnson’s successor to come from within the organization. Bench coach Randy Knorr appears to be the leading candidate, with first base coach Trent Jewett, Class AAA Syracuse Manager Tony Beasley and Class AA Harrisburg Manager Matt LeCroy also possibilities." I looked up LeCroy's record and he is 253-302 in four years between Low A and AA. He has yet to have a winning record. That doesn't necessarily mean he isn't a good candidate, but his record isn't very stellar. From my recollections of his time with the Twins he seemed to be a very level-headed, easy going guy. Interesting that all four managers in the NLCS and ALCS last year were former catchers.
  12. Physics Guy
    No doubt that KLaw is the KOS (King of Snark) and is very opinionated, but why do you say he is extremely biased? I've been reading him for years and don't see it. He gets accused of east coast bias due to his ESPN affiliation, but I don't see it. He bases his opinions on performance and what he sees on the field. He does not work for a team so has no attachment to certain picks.
  13. Physics Guy
    The difference is they only cost you money. Span costs less money but other assets as well. The "Would You pay him big money?" quote was in reference to Pagan. Agreed, but money is the issue for the Braves, Rays and some others. They have assets to trade and want to save money. Otherwise wouldn't they sign Bourn and Upton and be done with it?
  14. Physics Guy
    Let's call him what he is: an above average starting CF with a team-friendly contract. We have no reason to dump his salary unless we get at least an average player in return that fills an area of need (SP or MI). Obviously supply and demand come into play, but there are several teams out there looking for a CF that doesn't cost per year what Span has coming the next two. His contract is for 11.25M over the next two years with a 9M optin (.5M buyout). Upton and Bourn are most likely going for over 10M per season. After that the next best is Pagan. Would you pay him big money?
  15. Physics Guy
    Who do you propose we should listen to then? I'm sure KLaw has talked to multiple scouts who've seen Rosario play to couple with his own observations. It's not perfect, but it's among the best information sources available to those of us on the outside. I agree, from what I recall he has often mentioned that he talks to other scouts as well. He generally states when his opinion is based on what other scouts say versus what he has seen. Mostly his opinions are based on what he has seen because he is VERY confident in his judgment. He admits he comes off very snarky, but that is why I enjoy his chats.
  16. Physics Guy
    Yeah, I didn't realize Lannan was making 5M. Definitely not worth that pricetag.
  17. Physics Guy
    Does anybody realistically think we can get substance for Revere? He would be a fine stopgap between Span and Hicks for a year or so, but I just don't think he has much trade value. I would be shocked if the Mariners would give up any of those guys with Revere as the the key piece in the trade.
  18. Physics Guy
    I like the idea of going after Danny Espinosa. He strikes out a ton, but is much cheaper than Uggla. Span + ??? for Espinosa and Lannan. Lannan isn't anything special but was a 6th starter for Washington. He would have been our #2 last year. Espinosa can play SS also and Lannan would at least provide a #4 or 5 starter (maybe). What say you?
  19. Physics Guy
    I have so many things swimming in my head regarding all of the comments; many well thought out arguments. I was actually arguing with a colleague about Sano yesterday. I don't see the Twins accelerating his promotion for two reasons: 1) I agree that he probably needs to work on pitch recognition/hitting breaking pitches as evidenced from his K levels. 2) Primarily because the Twins are holding out that he can play 3B. He clearly is not ready to play 3B anywhere near the level needed in the majors. Harper flew through the minors because the decision was made to not keep him at a tougher defensive position. Remember he was originally a catcher. Boras wanted his path to the majors as short as possible. The Twins, in my opinion, are doing the right thing. Sano is much more valuable at 3B than he is at 1B, RF or especially DH. It's the same reason you keep Mauer at catcher as long as possible. As a 1B, Mauer's comparable is something akin to Mark Grace. As a C he's a future HOF. Keeping Sano at 3B will require extra time in the minors, but I think they need to decide this year if he indeed can stay at 3B.
  20. Physics Guy
    I don't think it necessarily indicates a bad system. Buxton was regarded by some as the #1 overall prospect in last year's draft. He would have been top 5 in most organizations. Most of the new guys are in the bottom half of the list. I would agree that the fact that so many of the new guys are pitchers doesn't reflect well on our pitching in the minors, but then we already knew our pitching wasn't good. Part of the high rankings of this year's draft has to be because they were high picks, plus the luster hasn't worn off due to a couple of years in the system Their "warts" haven't started to show.
  21. Physics Guy
    Absolutely nothing more to prove in AA? 69 games in AA is a pretty small sample size and he was a 21 year old in a league whose players have a median age of 24. I'd say starting in AA is reasonable with a promotion in May or early June. In another thread I had him projected as a starting OF for the Twins in 2014. I think that may be a bit aggressive. I could see him following a path similar to Cuddyer who had just over 100 AB with the Twins in both his 23 and 24 year old season and a semi-regular at 25. Cuddyer may have accelerated that a bit had he been moved to OF earlier.
  22. Physics Guy
    OK, so I may have been wrong. A quick look (I may have missed a couple) on Cot's shows 11 OF and 9 SP signing $50M+ free agent contracts. There were however more SP signed to $50M extensions (8-4) - meaning they signed with current team before reaching FA. There just seems to be more team looking for SP than OF.
  23. Physics Guy
    I realize this isn't quite the same, but it relates. If you are trying to value OF vs P, look at the FA contracts signed by players at those positions the past 5-10 years. Without actually digging in and looking, my guess is many more pitchers have signed $50M contracts than OF. Doesn't that indicate that teams value SP over OF? That is why we can't get Shields for Span alone. Having Bourn and Upton on the FA market doesn't help Span's value, although he should be a cheaper option.
  24. Physics Guy
    Agreed that Texas blows us out of the water, but I've seen proposals that the Rangers would possibly go after Price if they offer Andrus. I think Price is going to get (pardon the pun) pricey for that franchise and I've read rumblings they may look to move him.
  25. Physics Guy
    Let's not completely bash MacPhail. He must have had a little bit to do with the Orioles' turnaround. They did draft Machado and Bundy under his watch. I read an article somewhere recently about him. The interviewer was giving him some credit for the Orioles turnaround. Of course he was gracious about it but in the same vein said he was probably given more credit for the Twins' success than he deserved since much of the work in developing those teams was done before he arrived.
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