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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    "Yet another"? This hasn't happened at the MLB bullpen recently for the Twins. Last year, Tonkin was the only guy to get a pen audition before August. Meanwhile, 41% of our relief innings went to "veterans" who were gone from the organization by December, returning zero value.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I think people are under-rating how unusual that is. Theo Epstein just defended his likely Kris Bryant decision by saying he's never had a young player make his MLB debut on the opening day roster. Maybe it's not a great justification for Bryant, who should have been up last year performance-wise, but it highlights that barring unusual circumstances, most players worthy of MLB opening day roster consideration should be (and most likely are) called up late in the previous season, at minimum. Or they need to demonstrate something further in the minor leagues, however briefly, before getting the call. Otherwise, it's basically hard-to-judge spring training performance and roster circumstances dictating the decision. Aaron Hicks was an exception in 2013 (and probably an unnecessary one, as the Twins had to add him to the 40-man roster by November 2012 anyway, so it wouldn't have hurt them to add him for a September 2012 call-up). But even he had a full season succeeding in AA. Radke in 1995 too. Otherwise, if it's not an elite guy under unusual timing circumstances (Mauer, Bryant), it's almost always back end of the bullpen or bench guys (or Rule 5 guys) who get the distinction of making their MLB debut on an opening day roster. Ryan Pressly in 2013, Alex Burnett in 2010, Brian Bass in 2008... I guess most on this board probably have Rosario correctly pegged as a long shot anyway, but until I looked into this, I had no idea how long that shot has historically been.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    1924 World Series? $/WAR Championship? Fortuitous family of origin championship?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    So if Hicks doesn't make the team, and Arcia struggles and/or gets demoted, and Hunter is traded when Rosario and Buxton are promoted... what does that mean for the "mentorship" angle?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    His WAR rank, maybe. His actual WAR isn't really affected that much by the current level of third base talent. B-Ref's "positional adjustment" hasn't really changed since 2000: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml His fielding is compared to the average fielding of third basemen across the league, although I don't imagine that varies too much.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Veterans =/= best team You could have made this same post last spring, assuming that the Twins identified the "best team" in Kubel, Bartlett, Correia, Pelfrey, Burton, Duensing, Deduno, (Guerrier in AAA), etc., and still found room for youngsters like Arcia, Hicks, Pinto, Gibson, Escobar, etc. With younger bullpen arms just a phone call away in Rochester! Who barely saw any MLB action until the season was long lost in August... And I'm not against veterans -- Jared Burton in 2012 was a great add even though he turned 31 that year, because he offered: 1) short-term upside (career 129 ERA+) 2) multiple years of team control 3) and he only cost $750k. Even if Graham makes it, the Twins might still stock their 7 man opening day bullpen with 4 guys age 31 or older who meet virtually none of Burton's 3 criteria above (except Boyer's $750k salary if he makes the roster, and maybe Pelfrey's potential improved performance out of the pen if we'd ever actually get around to trying him there).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Stauffer actually intrigues me a little bit too. I have no real objection to any one of these guys in isolation -- it's the potential combination of multiple low-upside vets on expiring contracts (add Duensing to that group too) that doesn't appeal to me. Assuming Pelfrey/Boyer/Graham are the final 3, that's an average age in our opening day bullpen of 31. Rule 5'er Graham would be the only one under 31 this year. And the only one who could be freely exchanged with a AAA reliever is our best MLB RH reliever at the moment (Fien), so there is little flexibility. And Graham, Fien, and Perkins would be the only ones with multiple years of control left -- the other 4 (ages 31, 32, and a pair of 33 year olds) will be FA after this season.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    "This year is going to be different"? 2015: Stauffer, Boyer, (Pelfrey?) 2014: Burton, Guerrier (after a month in AAA), Deduno/Swarzak 2013: Roenicke, Wood 2012: Capps, Gray, Maloney 2011: Dusty Hughes, Slowey Hardly a group that's immune to crashing & burning (although some of them went for the slow fizzle). And it's not as if I am calling for full bullpen upheaval -- our top 3 relievers are pretty much set in stone, and have been since 2013. Stocking older mediocrity in the back end of the pen isn't really where you put your "most competitive foot forward" anyway.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    But that's making it May vs Graham. Wouldn't keeping them both in MLB be better for this team in the long run? What exactly does Stauffer, Boyer, or Pelfrey provide this team in the long run?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Having guys in AAA with options, and a bunch of mediocre veterans at the MLB level without options, is generally a bad thing. The only way to make a change is injury (likely temporary), complete collapse, or the Twins favorite, wait until the veteran's contract is up (or nearly up, like Correia, Willingham, Carroll, etc.). Stauffer's K rate intrigues me a little bit too, but I don't know that he really has much upside. He has the same problem as Boyer in that they are both older, have mediocre track records, and both can be FA again after the season. That is not a good recipe for returning long-term value, either in performance, below market contract, trade, etc.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, 20 days or fewer in the minors and he still gets credit for a whole year. That's what happened to him in 2014 (he only had about 10 days on optional assignment last May). So he would need at least 21 to safely avoid Super 2. Of course, if he is in the minors at all this season, it probably suggests a player not worth an extension...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not so much the money as the years. If he is any good, you aren't getting any of Arcia's free agent years without a 4+ year, ~$60 mil type commitment. But I agree, the stats don't presently suggest he will be very good, or even if he is, he might be so one-dimensional it could suppress his future value. The guy we should have been aggressive on, though, was Dozier last winter. Encouraging performance, defense/positional value to fall back on, two years away from arb... We could have a much better deal than just 4/20, like 5/30 plus team options.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so sure the Braves would give us Graham in trade so easily -- Diamond was a much lower regarded prospect, who looked less ready/suited to an MLB bullpen. And to get Diamond, we gave up a fairly high upside reliever in Bullock (who admittedly busted). I don't see Graham going for less.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that Milone has an option too.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That's how most stadiums get public financing, as I understand.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    If you can point to any recent 5/30 plus options type deals signed by an arb-eligible player, I might agree with you. Here is a tool you can use: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker Billy Butler was the first rough comparable I found, although his deal was 4/30 plus $12.5 mil option and signed before 2011. Ervin Santana also signed for 4/30 plus $13 mil option before 2009. Those were the only two I found there, dating back to spring 2008. That first guaranteed multi-million dollar payday is a big leverage loss for teams, I think. (Especially if the player didn't receive a multi-million dollar bonus at the beginning of their pro career.) Once they've got a couple mil in the bank, most decent players are much better off going year to year unless you offer in the $50+ mil range (which those Santana and Butler deals would probably push, once adjusted for inflation).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully, but he's realistically a year-plus away. Santana CF, Escobar SS for this season might still provide more long-term benefit to the Twins than Santana SS, Escobar utility, and sorting through various flotsam and jetsam in CF for a year. The longer they both show they can handle starting roles, the better.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought of that too. I don't think MLB would "sit on it", but they may not want to go to the trouble/cost of filtering and presenting the complete data for free to the public. Unless they are already building a centralized set of filters/interfaces for the teams to use, I suppose. But if they are simply passing the data to teams in a fairly raw form, they might simply sell it in a similar form to outside entities like ESPN to process and use (although not share).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The problem isn't lack of bullpen replacements -- the problem is when do they do the replacing? To date, they haven't shown much inclination to replace modestly performing low-upside guys in MLB. It might take a complete collapse or expired contract to replace anybody.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    While the public could create their own imperfect defensive record (and it seems almost feasible, with MLB.tv), they still wouldn't be able to check them against any of the current metrics, other than the final result. It would be like keeping score and making your own OPS+ -- while the "real" OPS+ was generated with a secret set of inputs. I too was excited by FieldF/X (now called Statcast), but I am not encouraged by their implementation so far. In 2014 it was at limited ballparks and they only included the info on select video highlights -- and from the sound of it, that might be all we see again as it expands to all 30 parks for 2015: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/110648292/commissioner-rob-manfred-mlbcoms-statcast-greatly-expanding-in-2015 I haven't seen anything suggesting the public will have access to this data for all plays (like PitchF/X), rendering it mostly a public curiosity. Maybe MLB will sell the complete data to ESPN, Fangraphs, etc. which should produce some interesting work, but more of the black box variety.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, although some have suggested that Molitor and Allen would shake things up a bit in this regard too. If they ultimately fail to lobby for any higher upside new blood on the roster this spring, I will be a little disappointed in them (although probably more disappointed in TR, for not yet learning that lesson himself from the past few years).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd argue that he made some kind of adjustments after 2011, when his K's started climbing and his overall batting line rebounded to his career excellent ~140 wRC+ levels. The adjustment probably just wasn't as big/obvious as many suggested here? Now that his line fell again in 2014, I do wonder if he needs to make additional adjustments, though, and what those might be. If he's finally comfortable again after the effects of the concussion and position change, and he's simply an OBP-heavy ~120 wRC+ type player as suggested by his second half performance -- does that even require adjustment? Or is that just who he should be as he turns 32 years old?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Danny Santana equally subject to "The Label" of him as a shortstop? I understand what they're doing with him and Escobar right now, but it's hard not to see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS as the optimal present-day (and arguably long-term) use of resources for the Twins. (Although Escobar might be a bigger factor at 3B this year than most folks realize.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a list of shortstops, ages 24-26, wRC+ 92-112 (Escobar was 102 last year), 400+ PA seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1990&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=24%2c26&filter=25377&players=0&sort=18%2ca A few utility guys pop up (I am not sure what the SS qualifier means), but that's not necessarily bad for Escobar comps: - Sean Rodriguez basically stayed in his utility role for the 2012 Rays - Emilio Bonifacio shifted to CF/utility for the 2012 Marlins (they signed Jose Reyes) - Damian Jackson started at 2B for the 2001 Padres, then went back to utility - Ramon Vasquez was replaced at SS before the end of his follow-up season for the 2003 Pades A couple more stretch your defensive requirement: - Kurt Abbott was replaced at SS and shifted to utility not far into his follow-up season for the 1996 Marlins - Brendan Harris was traded, started at 2B for the 2008 Twins, but then fairly quickly found himself in a utility role A few more guys continued starting at SS but probably shouldn't have (2004 Angel Berroa!). The best team in this group (2012 Rays) more or less kept their young utility guy in his utility role.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, "The Label" is usually based on a guy's long-term track record, so it's not all bad. The Twins have tried to buck "The Label" for various players over the years without a lot of sustained success: Nick Punto as starting 3B/SS, Brian Duensing as starter, Scott Diamond as staff leader, etc. Diamond posted a 116 ERA+ (and even a better than average 96 FIP-) in 2012, but the Twins still would have been better off making him battle for a rotation spot in 2013.
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