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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Coleman was out of options, so he would have required a 25-man roster spot immediately. This is where some 25-man roster flexibility would have been nice, and in fact it could give us an advantage over other teams (who might really be in short-term "win now" mode) in auditioning waiver claims. Instead we have a bullpen and bench full of players we can't option to even make temporary room to look at someone like Coleman. In any case, Coleman cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA by KC: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/royals-place-louis-coleman-on-waivers.html
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor has been in this organization the last 10 years. Barring any evidence to the contrary, I think it's safe to assume he's OK with our general pattern of personnel decisions.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That wasn't until August 26th. Prior to that, Robinson spent half the season in AAA, being demoted three separate times, apparently due to poor performance or just being deemed unnecessary (only started 7 games in 2.5 months in MLB, 83.1 innings in the field): http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=robins001sha&type=bgl&year=2014 Don Kelly was on FOUR consecutive postseason rosters for Detroit -- why didn't we add him?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect Farris's defensive award was more just an acknowledgement of taking on the task, when there was basically no healthy outfielders in our high minors (remember when AA Kenny Wilson snuck onto our CF depth chart?). Also, the competition was thin. Nunez might not be a bad comp for Farris, though. Their minor league lines are pretty close to identical, although Farris spent two whole season in the PCL so his line is probably worse. (Although it appears Farris also skipped AA, which was by far Nunez's best level.) I have no idea about Farris's true defensive rep.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Willingham played 10% of our OF innings in 2014. Willingham + Parmelee + Kubel + Colabello innings combined still didn't equal a full-time OF spot in 2014. And given our depth chart, barring injury, Arcia will see more innings than he did in either 2013 or 2014. And as a further variable, we've actually subtracted our three best defensive performers from our 2014 outfield too (Fuld, Santana, and Hicks).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Why not 2014? Eduardo Nunez was on Yankees playoff rosters in 2011 and 2012 too. I hope that didn't factor into our evaluation of his talent in 2014.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, we've had two full calendar years to come up with a better CF plan. And a better defensive OF starter would be a much better way to improve our defense than one backup. (Even Schafer is generally regarded as stretched defensively as an everyday CF, no?) I think when the Twins commit to an opening day roster, particularly a veteran without options on the opening day roster, it's permanent for at least 2 months, often longer. Looking back at the opening day rosters since 2010, here are the guys who haven't lasted 2 months and who were not optioned to the minors: Bartlett 2014 (retired) Sean Burroughs 2012 (DFA'd after a month) Luke Hughes 2012 (waived after a couple weeks) Marquis was released after about 2 months in 2012 too. And as we know, Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Stauffer, Boyer, Pelfrey, and Graham cannot be optioned, so I don't expect any quick decisions on them. It's basically Herrmann and Milone. How quickly would they option Milone at that salary? They did release Marquis and option Slowey after about two months at a similar price, but Slowey was pitching out of the bullpen at the time (and both had more recent injuries?).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry for jinxing Graham yesterday. : ( At least since he only recorded one out, his BB/9 and K/9 rates didn't change much.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Baby steps!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor was in the dugout all last season, and was a minor league coach for the previous ~9 years. And he was hired before any real offseason moves were made -- Hunter, arbitration tenders, Rule 5, relievers, non-roster invites, etc. I suspect Molitor's thinking on such matters is simply not that different from TR or Gardy.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they were going to option a guy in spring training making $2.8 mil like Milone. They traded Slowey at that price even though he had an option left. And I think Pelfrey was the likeliest to go to the pen only because they weren't going to put any of the other competitors there (Milone because he's a bad fit, and May/Meyer because they want them starting). Which could be part of why Pelfrey was upset -- perhaps he gets the 5th starter job if Milone's repertoire was better suited for relief work. I assume Pelfrey will start again for the Twins this season. (If I was being Gibson 2014 level pessimistic, I'd assume Stauffer makes a start too. )
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that was just our natural pessimism. The three guys Gibson had to beat had all been demoted to AAA themselves within the previous 12 months. And the guy with the least recent AAA demotion (Deduno) was coming off September shoulder surgery and had been outrighted off the 40-man roster the previous offseason too. This spring there was similar natural pessimism about the chances of May and Meyer, but at least it was backed up by at least ~$8 million (the salaries guaranteed Pelfrey and Milone).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    And that is something I can agree with, 100%.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll second this. I knew Graham was having a decent spring, but 12.2 IP, 6 BB, and 7 Ks (against what B-Ref says was an average of AAA competition) doesn't inspire much confidence. For comparison, Ryan Pressly had similar rate stats (and was better at limiting hits/runs) in spring training 2013, and it turned into a decent season at the back of our bullpen, but I'm glad nobody penciled him into future season bullpen plans based on it. Graham is almost certainly a back-end bullpen guy this year too, which complicates matters when folks try to minimize the significance of the Stauffer/Pelfrey/Boyer moves by claiming they are simply in the back end spot. After this season, Graham is probably just as likely to become yet another AAA reliever who inexplicably stays on the 40-man roster for multiple seasons without passing (or barely receiving) an MLB audition. (I say this as a full endorser of using the Rule 5 draft in this manner. I just wish that maybe we'd see fit to use another bullpen spot or two in a similar fashion.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    In the absence of a better resource on the matter, Wikipedia lists 96 current MLB clients for Boras, of which maybe 25% have ever been offered long-term extensions. Plus about 18 retired clients, of whom maybe 50% were ever extension worthy. That's about 35 guys. So a quick Google search finding 8 of those who signed deals buying out FA years seems notable. So Boras negotiated TWO separate long-term (5 year) deals for Maddux to pitch for Atlanta (in 1992 and 1998) -- and you're bitter that he didn't agree to sign a third?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It's an interesting curiosity, but the MLBPA and the industry of major league professional sports is quite different than the local UAW plant. And neither MLB nor the MLBPA is to blame for that fact, it's just the nature of the beast. If it makes you feel any better, the grievance may not be filed (and probably won't be decided) until Bryant is actually called up to the MLB roster, so he WILL be a union member with a retroactive grievance. But either way, Bryant's case of compensation suppression has far greater effects on the union membership as a whole than a simple routine player release or optional assignment. It would be like a union challenging a company on discriminatory hiring practices, even though those new hires would technically replace/displace current union members. Of course, the union would also have the right to challenge the replacing/displacing of current workers if they felt there was anything untoward about those moves too. I have no problem with what the Cubs are doing, and no problem with a union grievance. Both are permissible and make sense in the current system. My disappointment is merely with the system that causes the issue in the first place.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    He'd be great as the 9th man in the bullpen.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Just noticed this -- yes, those are included in these numbers. It's all international amateur spending. The only international spending not included would be that for international "professionals" -- i.e. Cubans (over a certain age now, I think), Japanese guys, etc.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Also next spring, Tonkin, May, and Hicks should be out of options, as may be Herrmann, Pinto, or Arcia if any on them spend 20 days on optional assignment this year.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. But I do know how to use Jeremy's Organization Chart! And the handy Rule 5 2015 filter on the left side: http://twinsdaily.com/organization-chart.html?sort_col=field_26&sort_order=asc&per_page=500&filters[37][2015]=1 Bard, Luke Baxendale, D.J. Duffey, Tyler Haar, Bryan Harrison, Travis Hicks, Dalton Jones, Zack Melotakis, Mason Muren, Alexander Polanco, Joel Rogers, Taylor Valera, Rafael Vielma, Engelb Wade, Logan Walker, Adam EDIT TO ADD: those are the guys newly eligible in 2015. There will also be carryover guys in their second or third year of eligibility who we may want to protect, like Goodrum, Michael, Salcedo, Wimmers, etc.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Carrying AAA relievers for multiple years on the 40-man roster is probably not a great use of resources.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I was just giving some context to his AAA performance.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Tradebait in the sense that if they are performing well, we might be able to give them away, but it's doubtful any of the relievers outside Perkins brings back much in trade. When was the last time a team seeking a closer traded for a Casey Fien type setup guy? Almost every team -- and especially every contending team -- has an equivalent pitcher to promote from within. His value to the Twins is multiple seasons of decent, affordable pitching. The four guys on expiring contracts especially seem to be placeholders rather than investments.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    True, TR's record warrants some benefit of the doubt, although Stauffer's service time really limits the "value" we can get for him beyond his 2015 on-field performance.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    By FIP-, Stauffer is also pretty comparable to our other recent bullpen arms: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=8346,3926,7466,6432,2237,4064,10078&sort=15,a Of course, neither cFIP nor FIP- takes leverage into account. Clicking over to the "Win Probabilty" tab at the link above shows Stauffer/Boyer were below even Swarzak (and even Guerrier 2014) in terms of gmLI for the Padres.
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