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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick Gordon was probably about as "safe" as a high school draftee can be.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Both of Oakland's MLB deals involving cash this past winter, the cash was sent FROM Oakland. They also sent out cash in the Samardzija and Brett Anderson deals in 2014 (although they also received cash in the Lester and Dunn deals). As cheap as they are, I doubt Oakland has much interest in cash, particularly when they're not taking on any salary (which presumably they would not be, if they received young players or prospects in return).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it was losing Cespedes that necessarily sunk the 2014 A's, but that his effective replacement was Sam Fuld. (Which meant no cushion when a few of their other hitters had epic collapses, chiefly Moss and Crisp.) I guess the Twins could be in a similar boat this year if we had to replace Plouffe with Escobar or Nunez.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Hahn wasn't a "minor league starter" last winter any more than Trevor May is a "minor league starter" right now -- he had a 112 ERA+ and 8.6 K/9 in 73 MLB innings already. And while not a top prospect, Alvarez was a reliever with a career 13.3 K/9 in the minors, who had already appeared in MLB (and had a 10.1 K/9 in 8 IP). Neither had yet to really struggle at any professional level. I know it seems affordable and I wish the Twins could have topped that offer, but for all our minor league depth, we didn't have two available pieces with that combination of MLB experience and success. Still don't, really, unless we want to deal May or Gibson. And Norris' .684 OPS is a 93 wRC+ in Petco -- not a star but 13th out of 26 MLB catchers with 200+ PA. He's on pace for a 3.2 WAR season. Arcia and Meyer are not official busts yet, but they're both trending in that direction. Arcia has spent the last 2.5 years looking a lot like a left-handed Dayan Viciedo impersonator. Unless San Diego was confident in a specific coaching plan that could turn them around, I think they ask for more or different pieces for Norris.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Plawecki is currently the Mets starter, with d'Arnaud on the DL, and they're just as much in contention as the Twins are.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    For that matter, while he's not the most impressive reliever on the market, Clippard has a 146 ERA+ this year and a career 149 ERA+ out of the bullpen. I am not sure Oakland needs to take a salary dump approach to moving him either, or settle for struggling potential relievers / utility players, although he's certainly more likely to be moved for a package like this than Zobrist.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Echoing the above, Tonkin and Reed are worth very, very little right now. And while the book isn't closed on Santana, he's definitely trending closer to bust at the moment -- teams tend not to seek out those types of players unless they are nearly out of options and come very cheaply (i.e. not for MLB level talent). Zobrist is a very reliable 115 OPS+ hitter at the moment, whose primary position has been second base. This past winter he was traded (with Yunel Escobar) for a 115 OPS+ MLB catcher, a solid Polanco type recent 1st round infield prospect, plus another non-40 man prospect. None of whom were recently struggling. Zobrist is much closer to a qualifying offer than a salary dump.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I am no fan of the San Diego GM overall, but I wish TR had been so "stupid" and "ill-advised" to snag Norris this past offseason...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This is incredibly in favor of the Twins. Norris was just traded this past offseason for Jesse Hahn and RJ Alvarez, who were the rough equivalent of Trevor May right now if his ERA more closely matched his FIP and Nick Burdi if he had dominated AA and debuted in MLB this year like we all hoped. No way San Diego turns around and trades him for a CF who's just now approaching league average in a small sample, and a scuffling AA reliever. Hicks's season is encouraging but he's still far from a great trade chip (and our "blue chip" AA relievers add very little to any trade right now).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario and Landa combined have 2 starts above rookie ball. They are so speculative at this point, their inclusion here seems strange. I admit, the Twins do have some interesting arms in the lower levels, much better than recent years, although I am not sure the quantity or quality is "ridiculous" or "absolutely nuts" relative to an average team, just a recently pitching-poor one.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Perkins was ever removed from the 40-man roster. He was simply optioned 3 times -- they never had to pass him thru waivers to send him outright to AAA. Baseball Prospectus has pretty good records on this stuff: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48557
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    His full career in college was as a reliever too. If he was on an innings limit, and he was starting the previous couple weeks, he would probably have to be shut down already.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting thing about Span, his career MLB AVG and OBP are almost identical to his career MiLB marks. He cut down on his K's a bit in MLB, though, and raised his ISO by .036.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    It took Dee Gordon a few years in MLB (669 PA) before he became an all-star. But he was a .300 hitter from the get-go in the minors, although as you note he was 2 years older than Nick.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    From City Pages, circa 1998: http://www.citypages.com/news/soft-sell-6711866
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess he wasn't mentioned in this thread, but Jason Grilli is out for the season now: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/jason-grilli-out-for-season-with-achilles-injury.html
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Fraser might be a good pickup to shore up the bottom of a bullpen. The Twins need to shore up the top, and having another vet probably complicates things too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Papelbon will not be traded for next to nothing. $19 mil for 1.5 years of a closer performing at his level is not an onerous burden, and as messy as they are, the Phillies do not seem desperate for that level of immediate salary relief. Ryan Howard, on the other hand...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, it's probably not unique to the Twins. Seems like new starting catchers are only sought in case of injury, and even then they don't come by major midseason trade but are rather cheaper, much less risky additions. Could see a backup / reinforcement move, but I wouldn't be surprised if an above-Herrmann level performance by Fryer over the next few weeks is enough to satisfy the Twins brass.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    But couldn't Pelfrey also be better than those other guys in the pen? The full equation could be (May - Pelfrey) + (Pelfrey - reliever) > (Pelfrey - May, which is presumably a negative number) + (May - reliever) Given that Pelfrey's peripherals are the most tenuous of our starters, I am not sure why this wouldn't be the case. I'd move the guy who is most likely to start scuffling in his current role, rather than move his presumed replacement with the hope that I can move him back quickly if/when the starter scuffles.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, certainly -- I just meant that he probably has a bit more adjusting to do at AAA before the jump. Ten runs in his first 10 innings there this year.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are 24th in MLB in baserunning runs according to Fangraphs, and 28th according to B-Ref (ahead of only Detroit in the AL).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I like Berrios, but I would be surprised if he's up as a regular starter in 2015. He took a little time to adapt to AA last year, and it looks like he is doing similarly at AAA, and he has so few career innings, I don't think they want to rely on him starting through September (and hopefully October).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Given the game-calling and rapport with pitchers/coaches required of the position, I wonder if the Twins are reticent about adding a catcher from outside the organization mid-season? Outside of #1 prospect Mauer, the Twins have been loathe to trust young catchers too quickly, sometimes not even in backup roles, which could speak to the importance they hold for the position. Calling up Fryer a month before the deadline seems to suggest that -- it felt like a bit of a lateral, "let's try to shake this up from within" move. And they may have a pretty low threshold of improvement they want to see at the position (i.e. better than Herrmann).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And lo and behold, Brayan Pena signed for 2/2.28 the same offseason we originally signed Suzuki...
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