Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Kazmir's 2015 home-road splits mattered much, if at all, for leverage. Beane had the more important leverage here, namely that he could simply hold on to to Kazmir and probably get a comp pick next June, and that any available starter better than Kazmir (Cueto, Price, Hamels) will cost a lot more than this. That's how he got a guy who isn't just potentially a fast riser, but who appears to be presently on the rise. (I like John's comparison to Kepler here -- those guys generally aren't tossed around for non-elite rentals.) Kazmir is from Houston too, so I suspect the Astros feel they can have the inside track on re-signing him (and he could come reasonably, given his previous contract and other names on the market this winter).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody's closing the book on Turner, obviously, but in the context of this article, he's clearly failed to develop overall *this year*. He's the worst hitting catcher in AA baseball (min. 200 PA): http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=5,6,7&qual=200&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d 7 guys above him 23 and younger too. Drop the PA threshold to 100 and 4 more guys 23 and under jump ahead of him... However much he may have developed with the glove or game-calling or whatever else this year, he has almost certainly taken an equal or greater step back offensively. Hence "failed to develop", overall, this year. If he finds success again next year, it will be in spite of 2015, not because of it.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt, Oakland favors pitchers. But to be fair, his 2015 season to date is already a small sample, and you're looking at even smaller sub-samples of that. Simply due to scheduling, he's only had one road start the past 5 weeks, for example, and he was removed after 50 pitches due to injury in that one despite pitching well at the time. He's faced the Twins twice: once in May in Target Field, and then again in July in Oakland. Are we really sure the ballpark had that much to do with his relative success in those two outings? The Target Field start in May was arguably his worst of the season, and by itself accounts for over a third of his 2015 home-road ERA difference. Last year, Kazmir was actually BETTER on the road in terms of runs allowed and opponents OPS, and only mildly better at home run suppression in Oakland.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think basically any multiyear FA contract is untradeable in its first season. It was probably the largest bid at the time, and other teams have since made other plans. Even after one full season, it can be a little tricky to unload a multiyear deal (the fire-sale Marlins have done it a few times). It's extra difficult with Ervin Santana due to the suspension, and the fact that there are much better (albeit more expensive) pitchers available now and this winter.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To repeat, Fien does have an option remaining. So he could be sent to AAA without being exposed to waivers. They also could go back to 13 pitchers if they sent down a position player (say, Danny Santana). I wish we would have done these moves some time ago (and tested Pelfrey in the pen too, or just test May more in a setup role) so we would know better what we need at the deadline.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly hasn't really "dominated" AAA, but has actually been reasonably effective in MLB. And Thompson, Thielbar, and Darnell have not really "dominated" AAA either. The two guys in your list who most "dominated" AAA (Oliveros and Meyer) have pitched a combined 9 MLB innings in the last two seasons. Not saying they are great options, but the Twins haven't really tested the more dominant AAA performers much.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I haven't looked closely at the defensive stats, but I do recall that Lawrie fared much better by DRS than UZR this year, and last I remember Torii Hunter was the reverse...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Put another way: their run differential suggests 53 pythag wins. Simply with better defense, they might have prevented more runs, to suggest, say, 56 pythag wins. Still doesn't explain the gap between the 53 estimated and 44 actual wins. Unless most of the bad defense was concentrated mostly in close games... which sounds like situational fielding, which in turn sounds like luck.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not trying to be difficult, really. But overall bad defense is going to affect your overall run differential, just like overall bad hitting or overall bad pitching. Obviously pythag is jus an estimate, but you can't explain away a large pythag discrepancy by saying bad overall hitting/pitching/defense. It has to be situational, which usually means bullpen, RISP, and/or plain old luck. So I am saying they can have a bad defense, even a very bad defense, but bad luck may still be the larger factor. Especially if bad defense gave them a bunch of 1 run losses, but did not apparently move the margins much in their other games (which would in total show up in their overall run differential).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The catcher alone would look pretty good if he was the QO comp pick next June, and he could be in AA by then anyway. Good get. (Maybe this is Beane effectively cashing in that comp pick for a player closer to MLB?)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think a rental trade, where the value is already limited, is a time where you have to take best player available, and not be choosy about level or position. Beane's major trades, he gets back multiple pieces, so he can insist on a few MLB ready pieces (usually a MLB regular in the group). This trade, he is probably not even getting the equivalent of one piece. Insist on closer to MLB and you wind up with a bench or AAAA player who takes up a 40 man spot.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with that, obviously. It was the connection to 1-run games that was at issue.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Graham only needs to be on the 25 man roster another 36 days or so, after Sep. 1 it is irrelevant. If you really need the roster spot between now and then you could DL him too.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The catcher also apparently cracked Sickels mid season top 75. I'd say that's a good get for a non-elite rental, who may not even deserve a qualifying offer.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Bullpen I understand, their appearances get concentrated into late innings and close games. And every tie or lead that the bullpen blows in the 9th inning or later is more likely to end up with a 1 run differential. For bad defense to have a similar effect, its occurrence would have to be skewed to those situations. (Similar to hitting and RISP situations, etc.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    "Bad defense affects almost every game" That is exactly my point. Bad defense will cause you to lose some close games by 1 run -- but it will also make 1 run losses into 2 run losses, and 2 run wins into 1 run wins. It really shouldn't affect your overall record in 1 run games that much, any more than it affects your record overall... unless you are unlucky about their distribution. The article doesn't address that at all. It shows how bad their defense is, makes the same claim as you, but doesn't show the connection.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The catcher would immediately be the best catcher in our system.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Fangraphs article makes the same assertion as you, but doesn't really explain. Lots of errors should lead to lots of extra runs allowed, which would affect pythag. Put another way, were they more likely to lose a game 6-5 due to errors that they should have won 5-4, than to win a game 5-4 that they should have won 5-2 without errors? Errors unlike bad relievers are more or less evenly distributed.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't disagree that their defense is poor. But unearned runs are included in pythag. All runs are included in pythag. Are they disproportionately bad defensively in 1-run games?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure I understand, is defense not contained in the run differential? Bullpen I get because it is disproportionately applied to late and close situations. Are they just bad clutch fielders?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we traded them for part 1.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If the player with the big contract is still performing well, and still at a premium defensive position, the "wrong half" is still a good deal. Hence player opt out clauses. Tulo would benefit from one this winter.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Joe Mauer had a concussion that season which moved him off catcher. Without that concussion and position change, I think a team would have to consider this for Mauer at 5/115 (although a C is riskier than a SS). Teixeira was a 1B with a 124 OPS+ at age 30 (and had something like 6/138 left on his deal).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but we're nowhere near that line simply by adding Gibson or Berrios, which seemed to be the position of some on this board.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rockies 2B, while a fluke all-star this year, is not that good. They might need Story there. (Indeed Story has begun appearing at the position the last two years.) He also could be insurance for a Tulo trade. They have absolutely no incentive to sell Story cheaply right now. (And selling him for AAA-banished Arcia or Meyer, or everyone's favorite non-prospect prospect Walker, would indeed be selling him cheaply.)
×
×
  • Create New...