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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Where else would Sano play this winter? Outfield, for the first time ever, increasing his chances of a Buxton-Kvasnicka style collision?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if serious, but since others are taking it seriously -- if the Padres think they can utilize Plouffe, Suzuki, and Nolasco the next 2 years, they're not shedding Kimbrel.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I feel like this might be the mirror image of an article written two years ago, "What Should South Korea Expect From Chris Colabello?"
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks started in a corner 41 times the past two seasons, out of 203 total starts in the field, or 20%. Did we hear any complaint? I could see him not liking a platoon situation, but I don't think any young player would like to be platooned, and frankly I don't think the Twins would like to platoon such a player either. There are plenty of ways to justify this trade without resorting to armchair psychology.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Fun with small sample sizes... Murphy's 2015 line with .357 BABIP: .277/.327/.406, .734 OPS, 103 OPS+, 99 wRC+ adjusted to his career minor league BABIP (.296): .232/.287/.361, .648 OPS, ~78 OPS+, ~74 wRC+ with his career minor league BABIP, plus his most recent AAA K%: .245/.298/.374, .672 OPS, ~87 OPS, ~83 wRC+ (His AAA ISO was a little higher too, but I did not adjust his MLB ISO for simplicity since it was already respectable, he's moving to Target Field, and he's a right-handed non-pull hitter. Similarly his most recent AAA BB% was already close too.) League average for catchers in 2015 was 89 OPS+, 85 wRC+ So based on this back-of-the-envelope estimation, to get him to positional league average, we're probably going to have to cut his strikeouts. Are the Twins the team to do that? We don't have a great track record in that department... Hicks did it in 2015 but was already noted for his pitch selectivity... will be interesting to see. EDIT: corrected adjustment for most recent AAA K%
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Murphy is actually younger than Garver, and only about 7 months older than Turner. Murphy has also never posted a season ISO as low as that of Garver (.088) or Turner (.083) last year. When he played in the same leagues, Murphy posted ISOs of .117 and .163, respectively (and obviously at much younger ages). And Murphy isn't known for his bat. At this point, I'm not sure how you can pin "catcher of the future" on either Garver or Turner, but not Murphy (except perhaps with "a great deal of faith" as you say ).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't see how, the Angels are losing their starting catcher in FA too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I do wonder if the Twins were asking FA catchers to split time with Suzuki, perhaps with Kurt getting the majority of starts, and that turned them away... Hopefully they don't use Murphy's youth and previous backup status to do the same to him in 2016...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Beane's only playoff series win was against TR, and TR's against Beane. I suggest they cancel each other out.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    In other veteran catcher news, Iannetta to Seattle.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Murphy also ranks 20th in that group in PAs. Also 3rd highest BABIP, #29 in ISO, and #37 (out of 54) in K/BB ratio. Pinto was 21st by OPS among catchers in 2014. (Obviously wouldn't have been a problem if he could have played catcher in 2015!)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually he could be on the cusp on super-2 eligibility next winter -- he currently has 1 year 120 days service time.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be surprised if we acquire an everyday catcher at this point. Murphy does have option years remaining (two, I think), but I can't imagine they plan to send him down right away. Could be a catching prospect who has another year to develop, but I got a feeling Murphy is the starting/platoon hope for 2016.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    On the personal side, Murphy grew up a Red Sox fan in Bradenton, FL: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/sports/baseball/riveras-final-catcher-has-a-story-to-tell.html
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    This was posted in the trade thread, discusses Murphy for a few paragraphs including defense. Cameron concludes "I don’t know that Murphy is going to be more than a decent platoon guy in Minnesota." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-acquire-aaron-hicks-a-potential-bargain/ Sickels most recent review of Murphy (Sep. 2014) said "Seems likely to have a career as a role player." http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/9/15/6111315/new-york-yankees-top-20-2014-pre-season-prospects-in-review
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I read it more as a fan/supported of Hicks, rather than a dig at TR. Why shouldn't we wish Hicks well?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Murphy's not really a "3 year backup catcher" -- looks like he was a September call-up in 2013, was the backup for 2 months in 2014 when Cervelli was hurt, and got another September call-up late in 2014. He was the Yankees backup catcher for the entire 2015 season, however. Got 43 starts, compared to Herrmann/Fryer's combined 39.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, everybody out-hit Hicks in 2014. Murphy only had 85 MLB PA, actually Hicks out-hit him in the minors that year. In 2015, they were virtually dead-even in wRC+ (Hicks 97, Murphy 99), and that's with Hicks getting over twice the MLB PAs and with Murphy having his highest BABIP since rookie ball (.357), as compared to Hicks' much more normal looking .285. Steamer has Hicks projected to a 99 wRC+ in 2016, and Murphy at 85.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Murphy actually resembles Herrmann a little bit. Played a little 3B too his first couple years in the minors, although he's been a full-time catcher for 4 seasons now. They both had a K rate spike at AAA/MLB, difference seems to be that Murphy's BABIP didn't crater in MLB (it actually spiked in 2015 to a career high since rookie ball).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Hicks will be arb eligible by normal means next winter, not Super 2. (He's already past 2 years service.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Sickels graded Murphy at a C+ prospect entering 2013, then a B- entering 2014. Commented about his improving defense and low upside bat, and his last grading said "Seems likely to have a career as a role player." He did go have a 103 OPS+ season as McCann's backup in 2015, although with his highest BABIP since rookie ball. Does seem to have a modest bit of power, still probably needs to cut his K's at the MLB level to really sustain a league-average bat.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario to CF, no? Could free up a spot for Arcia if he can re-claim it.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Almost exactly average at framing, just a thin hair ahead of Suzuki, according to the publicly available numbers here: http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure quite how to respond to this. I will say that Plouffe seems like precisely the kind of solid player that wouldn't "inspire" anyone to do something unpredictable or illogical. He doesn't have the youth or one standout skill or stat that GMs often like to project upon, and there really isn't much of a case for him being versatile defensively anymore if there ever was one (even in 2015 he only served as the backup 1B when Vargas wasn't on the roster).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    His bat plays anywhere, but he can't play OF for the Cubs? Also, Montero is nice but he's only signed for two years and the Cubs could easily transition him to a backup role or trade him. And I don't see the Cubs giving up talent to get a pitcher, they will likely just bid for one on the open market. That said, if the Twins think he can be a full-time catcher, I think Berrios a roughly even swap. But then we'd probably need pitching (most of our SP upside potential is tied up in Berrios), and great pitchers are expensive FA. I'd rather just risk some cash on a catcher FA signing like Wieters (and realistically, whatever you lose in offensive upside compared to Schwarber you might gain in confidence behind the dish). We could though perhaps get Montero for some spare parts, if not right now maybe during 2016 assuming the Cubs transition Schwarber to full-time catcher (not sure if they will, though).
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