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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm confused, you just held them up as a legit contender that should have discouraged the Twins from acting aggressively... and now you're saying the Rangers made a poor decision in acting aggressively to become a legit contender, because they weren't really legit after all? How many teams are justified in acting aggressively each year? Is it retroactively just the two teams that reach the World Series? Or just the team that wins? Did we just change goalposts again, like your question about SF Giants deadline trades? Either way, I am sure the Rangers regret their playoff appearance.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks raked in July, yes, and benefitted from BABIP that month. But his underlying peripherals were otherwise solid the whole year, even at AAA, and represented a big step forward from 2013-2014 (admittedly a low bar ). I don't know if it will last, but I guarantee you the Yankees and Twins aren't looking at either of these guys and waving the numbers away. I think this trade is as much a bet on each player as it is a surplus swap.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Rangers? Couldn't their fans have made a similar argument, before they added Hamels, Napoli, Dyson, Diekman, etc. at the deadline? I recall many of their vets (i.e. Choo) were underperforming at the time too...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If Santana is also the 4th OF, I wouldn't mind having him and Nunez on the roster.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You make some fair points, but some miss the mark. Hicks' strong peripherals (K%, BB%, ISO) were present for more than a month. And his solid 2015 was over twice as large of a sample as Murphy's. I don't even know their projected WARs, that wasn't my argument, but there is absolutely a place for statistics at this table.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    They traded Aybar (and prospects) for a better SS in Simmons. If anything, it probably cuts into their willingness to surrender more talent/prospects to address 3B.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I do prefer Murphy to Pierzynski this week, although if we had taken a shot at a better catcher and fell back to AJ or a similar placeholder vet, that would have been okay...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't my argument, but I suspect that projected WAR is looking at the underlying indicators (BABIP), not just past WAR (especially in small samples like Murphy's).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins did officially lose Fryer today, he signed a minor league deal with St. Louis.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I see where you are coming from, but what if the rotation fixes itself faster than you expect? Or, what it if doesn't fix itself at all? I think in modern MLB, you can't time your rebuild and aggressive moves as easily and plainly as in the past. I think the best course of action is to always be ready to make aggressive moves.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Did my post not answer your question? Why the change of topic? Pence and Peavy were pretty big deadline acquisitions at the time, and Beltran was a very aggressive move (straight up cost the ~30th and rising prospect in all of MLB). I forgot Burrell was signed after getting released in Tampa, but even dropping him, that's a list of 10 legit MLB reinforcements they traded for midseason over 6 years. And those are in addition to a number of scrap-heap fliers they took on as well which I didn't include. (And FYI, Mijares had arguably the best season of his career that year for the Royals/Giants, although 2009 rates higher by WAR due to leverage.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    BB%, K%, and ISO are results, results that were missing from his performances in 2013-2014 but were there for longer than just a month in 2015. Given that it was just one season, a season he started in AAA, there's almost no level of results that would conclusively say Hicks turned a corner. Same with Murphy's limited backup duty in NY. Beyond addressing positional needs, it seems like both clubs are placing a bet on these 2015 samples going forward, and it should be interesting to see how it plays out.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Since 2009, in roughly chronological order, here are the notable Giants in-season additions: Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, Marco Scutaro, Jose Mijares, Jake Peavy, Marlon Byrd, Alejandro De Aza, Mike Leake Some of the names bigger than others, but none of them were stiffs when the Giants got them either.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    His peripherals (BB%, K%, and ISO) were overall just fine August through October. His BABIP was .245 in that time, though, well below his career and league norms. I like getting a catcher, but it does look like the Twins just traded a guy coming off a low BABIP stretch for a guy coming off a high BABIP stretch, which is a risky move.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Cool, thanks!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It would seem kind of odd, given the stark delineation between starting and relieving in modern MLB, to leave a player in limbo about his expected role over the winter, though.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Danny Santana needs to see time at second base in spring training too -- he hasn't played there at all since 2013, and you have to go back another year to find his last non-emergency stateside starts at the position.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That undersells Hardy quite a bit. In the first of those seasons, the one you call "great", when just 2.5 months from full free agency, he signed a very team-friendly 3/22.5 extension And here's his WAR marks for the 4 seasons following the trade (B-Ref, but basically the same at Fangraphs too): 4.1, 3.2, 3.9, 3.3 Starting 91% of this team's games through those 4 seasons. In short, Hardy was an incredible asset not only that year we traded him, but for the next 3 years too (which he was also willing to sign away cheaply).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Starting when he was activated from the DL in early July, Hicks posted a 109 wRC+ the rest of the season, over almost 300 PA. Small sample, but it was without the benefit of platooning, the aid of BABIP luck (.282 during that stretch, lower than any of his pro seasons except his disastrous 2013 debut), or unusual peripherals (other than his season-long reduction in K%). And for all the talk of platooning, here's his 2015 line vs. RHP adjusted for his career BABIP (which is still a little shy of league BABIP overall): .265/.330/.388, .718 OPS, ~96 OPS+, ~98 wRC+ That's basically Eddie Rosario's overall wRC+ in 2015, plus Hicks mashes LHP on top of that (139 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015, 125 career).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That is the latest report, yet: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/reds-trades-todd-frazier-chapman.html
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    They will if they do something unpredictable and illogical! TR should absolutely be calling other teams and soliciting their most unpredictable and illogical offers for Plouffe, on that I think we can all agree.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    From the looks of it, they may not technically lose control over Pinto until next April if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, and by that point it may not be difficult to slip him through waivers. He reports to the Venezuelan winter league this week, should be interesting to see where and how he plays. Fryer has previously re-signed with us, I see no reason why he wouldn't again this winter. Likewise Paulino signed here as a minor league free agent last winter. If either doesn't re-sign for whatever reason, we can find another like them to fill any hole in AAA.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    By my count, Murphy has 2 options remaining. He was added to the roster in 2013, optioned in 2014, but spent all of 2015 in MLB. But I hope this trade wasn't made with any idea of sending Murphy down, though. He should be starting over Suzuki, or we should get an even better starting catcher and dump Suzuki. In any case, I can't see all of out-of-options guys (Arcia, Santana, Pinto, and Tonkin, plus Robinson possibly) making the roster, much less sticking on it all year, meaning our roster shouldn't be that inflexible. Vargas, Rosario, Polanco, and 9 pitchers still have options.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Twins are trying to forget that ever happened. Cuddyer went to the OF at age 27 after being deemed a failure at 3B. I don't think Plouffe is returning to the outfield.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, DSP's quote was probably based on Hicks still being on the roster. DSP also said we would pursue AJ. Circumstances change.
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