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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Graham was actually on the DL for a bit late in the season, and in any case, he wasn't used as a long reliever (or much at all) over the season's final months. Stauffer was never really used that way (perhaps due to ineffectiveness), he maxed out at 2 innings, often fell short of that, and ultimately was only on the roster for 6 weeks anyway.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I figured it out, but I will withhold my (extensive) research and give others a chance to guess. Although I will say, it seems a mild date technicality prevents a Twins pitcher from being part of the answer...?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You'll get no argument from me, especially when we seem to target/keep "token" LHP like Duensing and Abad. But until those other RH pitchers are ready, there's no shame in swapping out one of your interchangeably mediocre relief arms for a potential LH weapon.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The starting staff should be better in 2016, though. No aces, but just a full season from a workhorse like Santana instead of Mr. "5 IP/start" Pelfrey is going to boost your starter innings. And regardless of starters, I don't think the Twins are optimally deploying the bottom half of their bullpen. There's no need to have 3-4 generic average-ish pitchers with a target full season usage of 60 IP as they Twins have been rostering lately. Until a better overall reliever is ready and available, they'd almost certainly be better off axing one of those interchangeable average-ish guys, rostering O'Rourke for 30 targeted innings of strict LOOGY deployment, and spreading the remaining 30 innings over the other pitchers, designating at least one to be more of a long reliever anyway and preferably having one or more with the option to send to AAA for a fresh arm when needed. The Twins weren't even carrying a long reliever to soak up innings for long stretches late last season, and it showed -- early exits by the starter resulted in a parade of interchangeable 1-inning guys (including a miscast O'Rourke) for no discernible benefit.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I would hope that after 2-3 seasons of pro experience, we'd be past using height as the primary determinant of ace potential. Whatever percent chance that Stewart still has to be the next Roger Clemens (for example) thanks to his height can't possibly be greater than Berrios' chance to be Pedro due to performance, at this point in time.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I can't see any type of ceiling that Stewart has that Berrios wouldn't at least match at this point. Whatever slim odds that Stewart has to emerge as the next Greg Maddux, Berrios would at least match them to be the next Pedro Martinez, no?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I know these type of comparisons are just for fun, but don't forget context. Maddux's minor league K rates were roughly league average, and his run prevention (including unearned runs) was better than league average. Stewart fell well short of both of his league averages last year, in the FSL. (Also note that Maddux had compiled that entire minor league record, half of which was at AA/AAA, by the same age that Stewart is now!)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't rank Kang in last year's top 100. I'd be shocked if they ranked 1B Park in their top 50 this year, he's not regarded nearly as well as Abreu, Puig, Ryu, etc. (which is evident in his contract too).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I imagine those contingencies can be pretty nebulous, though, in regards to a player's physical.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Cardinals have had no problem rostering Randy Choate the last 3 seasons, etc. With a 7 man bullpen standard, that will probably swell to 8 at times, and I see no reason why there wouldn't be room for a LOOGY. Other teams have similar sized bullpens too, so everybody has a short bench and can't pinch hit so easily. Seems like an easy way for a suspect bullpen to improve, to smartly deploy a strict LOOGY.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if this is quite true, Seth. O'Rourke faced 3 RHB in his debut, was notably allowed to face a couple RHB in a game he helped blow against the Yankees, etc., all before the Cotts acquisition. And we're not looking at his numbers judging his performance, but rather judging if they will trust him and how they would use them. EDIT: Just peeked at his game log, and he did face a larger share of RHB after Cott's acquisition. But even before Cotts, only 61% of his batters faced were LHB, well short of LOOGY standards like Randy Choate (80%). And after Cotts, he barely pitched at all -- 8 appearances, 6 IP between the Cott's acquisition and when we were eliminated from the postseason (~40 team games). And the fact that we acquired Cotts, even after O'Rourke showed promise as a LOOGY, suggests perhaps we don't like a strict LOOGY in our pen and we may not trust O'Rourke.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but Berrios still has some percentage chance to be more than that, and I have to imagine that chance is greater than Stewart's at the moment. They're only a few months apart in age, and their differences in performance and possibly health are quite evident.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't have gotten it without your clue that he "technically played after the inception of the All-Star game."
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Regression is the key point. Problem is, the Twins bullpen last year was pretty solidly mediocre no matter how you slice it. So if a good performance like Jepsen regresses down, and Fien or Perkins regress back up, you're still left with the same overall mediocre performance.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't hear that specific conversation, but I remember hearing TR earlier in the offseason say that Rogers will be looked at as a reliever in spring training. So he's in the mix, at least for now. Unfortunately, on the flip side, everything I've heard has May destined for the bullpen too. I heard Neil Allen running through every possible starter in a Twins Fest interview and I don't think May's name came up at all.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Rogers Hornsby?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Ha, yeah, I kinda left myself open for that one. What I should have said, only just after Mauer had missed a large chunk of time (so, beginning of 2005, May 2009, etc.). Relatively infrequent.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    See the post I was responding to. I wasn't commenting on their ranking relative to the Twins, but rather their absolute ranking.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the 3 catchers thing was overblown -- the Twins actually did that pretty rarely, generally only for a few weeks when Mauer had been recently injured.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if anyone is looking for a deal on MLB.TV and can afford to wait, the past few years they have usually had a targeted 50% off deal by early May. Anyone who logged in with your MLB.com account and stream their free game of the day in April got emailed the targeted offer. I usually only listen on radio anyway, so it was no trouble to wait a month. Although perhaps with the modest price cuts outlined in this settlement, they may not have the same sales during the season anymore.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not in a meaningful way yet, no. "Unserved Fans" sounds like an option for folks in Iowa and other far reaches of blackout territory who may not have the option of getting Fox Sports North on cable, but I understand that most of those fans do have the option of DirecTV so I'm not sure if MLB will consider them "unserved" or not. I guess we'll see. The "Follow Your Team" option will remove blackouts for a designated out-of-market team (so, a Royals fan could stream Royals @ Twins in Minnesota), but only if you authenticate with a cable/satellite subscription that includes FSN, in which case you already have the game on your TV. Likewise, separate from MLB.TV, if you have a cable/satellite subscription that includes FSN, you should be able to stream Twins games through the Fox Sports Go site/app -- that's new this year. Something similar should be in place for non-Fox RSNs by 2017 too. So basically, if you can get it on your TV, you can stream it too. No new streaming-only options yet, though (unless you can borrow a cable/satellite subscriber's login information).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the White Sox just graduated Rodon, and the Tigers Norris, and the White Sox and Royals still have some young talent on the MLB roster. I don't think their low prospect rankings this year will prove to be terribly meaningful, in the long run.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I may have loved to see that too, but the Mets might not have been too keen.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right on the multiple innings thing, it didn't turn out to be a big deal with Perkins, but you can see it in Fien's usage. I doubt Gardy would have approached things very differently with Thompson and Boyer, though. He usually had better bullpen pitchers so it's easy to forget, but he used Tony Fiore, Bobby Keppel, etc. when he had to.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say it was wrong, but those projections come with big error bars, larger for rawer amateur talent. There's no shame in admitting they probably missed a bit on Stewart, especially since so far it hasn't been a huge miss (i.e. BJ Garbe). Occam's razor, that's probably the best explanation for his pro results so far.
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