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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Have you all seen this? https://frinkiac.com An article about it here: http://www.avclub.com/article/frinkiac-search-engine-can-find-screencaps-simpson-231690
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I got 1 and 4. Wasn't thinking PED guys for #3, so I guessed Kingman.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not sure I understand the point of Rand's article. Sure, other Twins have changed positions, but generally under very different circumstances than Sano. Sano is being moved, while apparently healthy, after an elite offensive performance, and after only 9 MLB games at his original position. I would guess those guys generally aren't moved, particularly not for the likes of Plouffe or Park. (Although I say this as a Plouffe supporter who is simply a bit puzzled about our off season strategy.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. And the June 1st opt out sort of confirms there wasn't any undeserved promise made to him (yet). I am far more worried about earlier minor league signings Abad and Kintzler, who probably have the inside track to opening day roster spots. (Not sure if they have opt outs, though?)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course. But Pressly or Tonkin over Boyer last spring would have hardly been "always going that direction." The Twins already had Perkins, Fien, Duensing, and Stauffer on guaranteed MLB deals last spring. What's the argument for 5 pen veterans over 4 pen veterans? The only pen "prospect" they used out of the gate last year was Rule 5'er Graham. This year, it could be more of the same. They have Perkins, Jepsen, Fien, and probably Nolasco or Milone. They will also probably roster Pressly and/or Tonkin, each with parts of 3 MLB seasons under their belts, plus May obviously. Do they really need the stabilizing veteran presence of Abad or Kintzler? That's not a proper mix of veterans and prospects, that is literally zero rookies in the pen.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt the Twins have that many notable prospects for those positions at that level in 2016. Buxton in CF, Walker in RF, Kepler in LF, Vargas at 1B, still leaves DH open, no? And if/when Buxton is promoted, Kepler can slide to CF and that opens another corner spot. Not to mention Kepler's chances at MLB himself, or Vargas's chances of being traded. And that June 1st opt out date suggests spring training is not the decision point, so he shouldn't take an excess of opportunities there either.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    How did Boyer help us win over Pressly, or Tonkin? When you consider not only ERA but inherited runners and unearned runs allowed, both were as or more effective than Boyer in 2015. Almost certainly with more upside too. Yet each lost a month or more to Boyer in 2015. Someone like Rogers or Meyer perhaps lost more. Even someone like O'Rourke, perhaps had he come up earlier, could have been more capable of contributing down the stretch. The idea that Boyer or Kintzler, or any average-ish "6th inning guy", represent "win now" moves is strange to me.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins weren't really expecting to compete at the beginning of 2015 when they picked Boyer over younger guys to make the team. Heck, they were spending one bullpen spot on a Rule 5 pick. And they never had any shortage of guys to fill that 6th inning role, all year. What they lacked was guys for higher leverage roles. And you're not going to find or develop those guys in a timely manner if you keep rostering every veteran 6th inning guy you can get your hands on.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Bartlett and Kubel inexplicably got opt outs around March 30. Quentin's June 1st opt out suggests there is some understanding that Quentin will need minor league time.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Would we? Adjusting for the high number of inherited runners and unearned runs he allowed to score, Boyer turned in a roughly ~107 ERA+ performance in 2015. He wasn't trusted to any real degree down the stretch but firmly occupied a roster spot nonetheless, and was let go at the end of the season as a free agent. Not sure that the Twins gained much of anything from the Blaine Boyer experience. They got some average middle relief innings, but did lose a spot where they could have further evaluated Pressly, Tonkin, Rogers, etc. at different times. That problem could be more glaring if it was repeated as the Brandon Kintzler experience in 2016, as the Twins could have even more interesting relief arms in the upper minors.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You forgot Frazier. I think their remaining veterans might have a demand problem themselves, rather than a problem with the Reds demands.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess Rosario is a lock to start opening day, but I wouldn't call him a lock much beyond that. A promising rookie campaign, but still plenty of room for regression or stagnation. He could also start in CF on opening day, if Buxton goes to AAA, no?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the box score at B-Ref (although you could probably look it up at Ripley's Believe It or Not as well ): http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201510010.shtml Actually rather pivotal, the next batter doubled him home as the tying run, in what proved to be the final Twins victory of 2015.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not really how it works, though. Top draftees generally get slotted, and fairly high, even if they don't have much experience. Kohl Stewart was BP's #54 after 20 innings in rookie ball. Nick Gordon #70 after 57 games in rookie ball. Both guys were even higher on other lists, and MLB.com currently has Tyler Jay at #60. The top 5 picks from the 2015 draft are all ranked by BP, but not Jay at #6. Perhaps BP thinks it was a weak class and/or pessimism about Jay specifically?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler's been in pro ball a lot longer than he has been having good success, though. I know we like to attribute that to his unusual background and hope that 2015 was the start of a new trend for him, but when ranking a lot of similar players, that can be a distinguishing factor. As can 9 HR as a corner player, some injuries in his history, etc. I'm not any particular fan of Zimmer, but 2015 was his first full season of pro ball. Scuffling at AA hurts (although he at least managed a 102 wRC+, comparable to Kepler's 2013-2014 seasons), but he also dominated at high-A (164 wRC+). 44 steals and a lot of reps in CF last year also suggest a broader range of valuable outcomes for him, perhaps?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? I can't see Park starting in AAA, not with the commitment and expectations around him.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    How about all the pitchers that have faced Stanton over the past 3 seasons? Are these pitchers notably more afraid of Casey McGehee than this Bour kid? McGehee had 4 HR in 2014, and batted directly behind Stanton for 126 games. Note only 22% of Stanton's plate appearances were in "high leverage" last year. Pitching around a guy in "big situations" isn't necessarily enough for a high walk total. And it's not all up to the pitcher either, Stanton might be aggressive enough (or effectively aggressive enough) to neutralize a lot of the benefits of pitching around him. I don't really know much about him specifically, but I do know he's batted third plenty without the effects that you describe.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    An interesting opt out mention, by the New York Daily News via MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/boras-pedro-alvarez-not-dh-indians-pursuing-uribe-rumors.html Of course, Morris was exactly the kind of player where the opt-out is fine for the team: entering his age 36 season, and pretty much a less-than-elite talent too despite his workhorse / big game reputation. Losing Morris' potential upside at ages 37-38 wasn't that big of a potential blow.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Too bad it didn't come before August 19, 2015 (a pair of 2 run HR to beat the Twins 4-3). At this point, I'd call it a slight blow too. Bird is a nice prospect, but seemed to over-achieve as a rookie last year (gosh, I hate when Yankee rookies do that), he's never really played anywhere but 1B and DH, and the Yankees still have Teixeira and A-Rod at those spots, who were comparably effective despite their age in 2015.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Just trying to figure out the timeline, his last start in 2014 was April 13. By "a month after being moved back to the bullpen", do you mean he had sudden elbow problems in May? That doesn't quite square with "tried for two months to rehab" though, it would be more like 5 months from then until he had surgery. He pitched every few days until he hit the disabled list on August 4, then was activated a couple weeks later for a few final appearances. July was actually his best month by performance. Seems more likely the injury came on suddenly at the beginning of August, and September and parts of August/October were his "two months rehab"? If you begin after his last start through his last strikeout (July 29), which might be a good proxy for when he got hurt judging by his DL stint, his line looks a bit better: 9.8 K/9, 8.0 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP. Still, given most of it was in high-A around 23 years old, it doesn't scream "fast track." You'd have to go back to his 2012 half season, split between rookie league and A-ball, to see those kind of results, and we all know how stats at those levels aren't a good way to measure readiness, especially for college pitchers (i.e. Jake Reed). Rogers has been near that WHIP as a starter, and O'Rourke probably would have matched it in MLB too if he had been used more vs LHB rather than a 50/50 split.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    No way Melotakis makes the opening day roster, frankly he shouldn't get many reps in spring training with that as the goal. He may be 16 months from surgery, but as you note, he will also be 18 months from throwing a competitive pitch. And those last "competitive pitches" came in 16 innings at AA. And while good and promising before the injury, he was hardly dominant or on any kind of super fast track to MLB -- out of the bullpen in 2014, split between high-A and AA, he had a 9.0 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 while giving up 9.0 H/9 for a 1.375 WHIP. In his age-23 season. Again, solid and promising, but the Twins would frankly be crazy to let him make the opening day roster over O'Rourke or Rogers (and probably a few RHP too), or even to give him spring training innings ahead of those guys. There's really nothing that Melotakis can do at this point in a handful of spring training innings to vault him over those guys.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Please don't sully the Twins decision by suggesting the Rockies may have made a similar decision.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously the Andrus contract is terrible. But Segura had a notably worse season at the plate in 2015 (12 fewer rBat than Andrus, in fewer PAs). Over the last 2 seasons, both B-Ref and Fangraphs have Segura as roughly replacement level overall, and Andrus at roughly 3 WAR, which isn't nothing either. Andrus has never posted a full season WAR (bWAR or fWAR) as low as either of Segura's last 2 seasons. I think what you are suggesting is that expectations are higher for Segura based on his breakout (half) season which Andrus has never quite achieved at the plate, but ultimately I think Segura gets more scrutiny simply because he's still tradeable and worth discussing. Andrus isn't going anywhere, so he honestly doesn't get discussed much at all, it seems.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    How Miguel Sano "lost" 5 lbs this winter:
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Given that the Angels did not even make Freese a qualifying offer, the Twins would not have been alone in anticipating a poor market for 3B.
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