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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Among near contending teams with top half rotations, like the Twins and White Sox? It might not be much more than that. It's not particularly relevant to this discussion if teams like the Rockies and Phillies churn through a bunch of starters in lost seasons.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I removed him because it's not really relevant to a discussion of projecting pitcher health/depth. PED suspensions for MLB SP are like lightning strikes. Obviously the Twins depth helped cover for it, but that doesn't mean much going forward if it's incredibly unlikely to happen again.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if the common refrain has only focused on one month, or on one side of the ball. The Twins may have been lucky to escape April last year with a 10-12 record, given that their runs rank outpaced their wRC+ rank for the month, and their RA9-WAR outpaced their FIP WAR (which it did again in May). I don't know that their BaseRuns performance was ever isolated to the month of May (I don't even think that split is available anywhere).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In 2015, the White Sox top 6 starters to open the season made all but 9 of their starts. If not for Santana's PED suspension, the Twins top 6 starters to open the season would have possibly made all but roughly 11 of their starts. Having Berrios on the depth chart, where the White Sox don't have a comparably ready top prospect waiting in the wings, is an advantage for the Twins, but if he's 7th on the depth chart, it might only make a relatively small difference in 2016.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... maybe Blackburn at #1 wasn't so crazy after all!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't a signing bonus, it was a posting fee, and why wouldn't we include it here? It was an expenditure incurred to acquire Park that could have put toward other players. As for team control, it would be 4 player seasons either way. The path we chose added a potential DH/1B for 2018-2019 on top of 2016-2017, the other path added bullpen depth/competition for 2016-2017. The latter was more of a need, right? And we didn't count on Arcia or Vargas for much of 2015, I don't know where this idea is coming from that we'd have to rely on them to any great degree in 2016 had we not signed Park.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Also perhaps the opportunity cost of signing a reliever, given a limit on financial resources. Also, we already had depth and competition at DH and the corner OF spots. Remember how buried Arcia and Vargas were in 2015? We didn't need to sign Park to compete with them or make them depth pieces. Our bullpen disappointed last season, arguably more than Arcia and Vargas as Sano, Rosario, and Hunter effectively replaced them. Why no emphasis on a similar "depth and competition" acquisition in the bullpen? Sounds like Abad is all but guaranteed a job, that is some great depth and competition there... You could have signed both Lowe AND Bastardo for the same amount of money we committed for Park. And much more clearly added "depth and competition" to this club.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Context can be your friend. We're not debating whether the Jepsen trade was good or not, in fact most of us liked it just the same as you. But Jepsen isn't here for free, his total cost to the Twins is very comparable to what other teams are committing to Lowe, Clippard, etc. You tend to miss that context, though, when you bold and "respond" to one sentence in a longer post.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    But not all equal AVG and OPS figures are created equal. With fewer strikeouts and a lower BABIP, it would have been possible for Santana to have the exact same AVG and OPS in the exact same number of plate appearances in 2014. But that would have been evidence of a real change in skill (reduced strikeouts) rather than luck (abnormally high average on balls in play) and would have projected better going forward. So there is value in digging deeper beyond just AVG and OPS, and I see no problem with including BABIP in that deeper analysis. Heck, you yourself referenced OPS in your evaluation of Santana, another stat introduced by "stat geeks" 30 some years ago.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Who cares about the article? Are we not allowed to discuss things not contained or addressed in the article?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for sharing! Although I have to admit, I wasn't sure where you were going by using "Brett Favre" as a verb...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure we've heard from the Twins, perhaps indirectly, about how bad it is to sign relievers for more than one year. And I can only imagine what quality of free agents will be available during spring training...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd love to hear what Korean restaurants Park recommends after he spends some time in Minneapolis!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't even click through to the article, and I'm probably not alone. As is the case with many forum threads here, we're discussing a general Twins related topic, not the work of a specific author. Read the comments before you judge them.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I might quibble with the details of this example, but you are definitely correct that it is much easier to be flexible and adapt around a RP signing than a SP one.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Agreed.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess the penalty would be stronger, closer to the June draft penalties which are pretty severe.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a pretty fair statistical comp, based on Kepler's 2015 season. Hayes played most of his career around his listed 185 weight, though. Likely more speed and more willing to use it. But the power emphasis on doubles/triples, controlling the strike zone, and moving as needed between corner OF, 1B, and even CF, that was very much Kepler in 2015. Although maybe adjusting for era, the weights are pretty similar? Would also need to adjust Hayes' strikeout rates too, I suppose. EDIT: Fun essay and comments on Von Hayes here: http://www.fangraphs.com/not/the-pictorial-odyssey-of-von-hayes/
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Given his draft pedigree and left-handedness, I think it's fair to project a floor of MLB reliever for Jay if the starting conversion doesn't work out. I don't know how good he'd be or how long he'd stick, but barring injury he'd probably get a long look there. Similar for Gonsalves and even the RHP Stewart. That would make more sense within your rankings too, and it seems like the most useful definition of floor for these guys. It was the "dominant" and then "late innings" things that threw me off. That can't be anyone's floor from A-ball. Maybe a guy like Meyer, back when he was succeeding in AAA as a starter, you could say if he doesn't stick in MLB as a starter, he could fall back to being a pretty darn good reliever. (Of course Meyer illustrates how things such as ceiling/floor can change over time too!)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be fun to see. Add Buehrle, cut Danks?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    AAA is actually ahead of where most of the Twins relief prospects are right now. But your llatter point is key. There are only limited spots in this pen if you stock it with guys like Fien, Abad, Tonkin, Nolasco, etc. and refuse to move them.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you remember how tough it was to acquire a good reliever at the deadline last year? We barely got Jepsen under the wire. It took a SP prospect not unlike Gonsalves/Stewart to rent Clippard for two months, a guy that some posters here want to avoid at all costs. It took 3 prospects to get two months of Mark Lowe. With the added wild cards, more teams are in contention at that point of the season, so it's very difficult to pry good relievers away (and you are competing against more teams for those few relievers on the block). Far more good relievers were moved this winter (Storen, McGee, Benoit, K Rod, Chapman, Giles, Justin Wilson, Carson Smith). 2/12 is a pretty reasonable insurance policy to help avoid being at the mercy of the July trade market, not to mention you'd get the benefit of having that pitcher on opening day. EDIT TO ADD: It could also help the Twins the other way. If we are out of contention, we've got another asset to potentially move in July too (and an easy path to clear for another prospect if we so desire).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no problem with some of those deals (like Fien and Nunez), but this helps put the FA reliever salaries in context. Duensing got $2.7 mil last year coming off a pretty weak performance (3.3 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 in 2014). We gave up prospects for the right to sign Jepsen at 1 year, $5.3 mil. There is no way that a 2 year, ~$12 mil deal for a reliever coming off the season/postseason of Lowe, or the track record of Clippard (at least 1.2 bWAR in 6 of the last 7 seasons), is "inflated" or evidence of the market "blowing up". That's fair market value, and low in absolute terms compared to other positions, so it's an easy low risk way for teams with suspect bullpens to potentially improve quickly. Would have thought that group included the Twins with the way the 2015 season unfolded and our public statements about the bullpen being a priority, but here we are.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The fact that he cleared should be a hint about the potential MLB value of such a player, though. If he sees MLB action in 2016, it will almost certainly mean that something in our pitching plan went terribly wrong.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Who are some other left handed relievers that you'd be comfortable with in the 8th or 9th innings, below Smith, Perkins, and vintage Thornton? Bastardo? Not sure why you use the term "floor", it rather seems like you are describing his reliever upside when you are invoking names like Smith, Perkins, and vintage Thornton. Those guys are/were 11-12 K/9 all-star setup men and closers. Unless you honestly think his upside is all-time great like Chapman or Miller, in which case his #9 rank seems WAY too low.
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