Otto von Ballpark

Actually this is demonstrably false. If he's a non-closer reliever, he will make less than a mediocre starter. Tommy Milone just got $2.8 mil and now $4.5 mil in his first two go-arounds in arbitration, and he's actually been optioned to the AAA each of the last 2 seasons too. A non-closer reliever, even a good one, will likely only get half that. And for May, that assumes he stays healthy the next two years too). And in the meantime, as a reliever May has almost zero leverage to get a financial guarantee in advance. Consider Kyle Gibson, who after 2.5 years of decent starting pitching was #1 on Jeremy's "Ten to Extend" list, looking at an estimated potential guarantee of ~$30 mil already. Gibson could probably go to the team and guarantee himself $20 million today, with a million dollar signing bonus up front, and be completely set for generations no matter what happens to his pitching arm tomorrow. Next winter, May will have an identical amount of service time to Gibson presently, but with much of it spent in the bullpen, he will have almost zero leverage to get such a guarantee. And like I said in a previous post, this isn't an argument that the Twins should be concerned about May's bank account. It's just a fact that May will earn less and have less security in a relief role, especially early in his career. If you want to bring the team argument into it, consider that it is a poor use of resources given the market. Good relievers can absolutely make notably less than mediocre starters. Darren O'Day has had one of the most effective four year runs of relief pitching ever, and got $31 million this winter, about 60% of the guarantee that Ricky Nolasco got two years ago. After his Detroit deal expires, Mike Pelfrey will have received almost as much as O'Day ($27 over four years). Even a more "elite" setup arm in Andrew Miller, signed to close in New York, only fetched a $36 mil guarantee. These are just a few of the examples that demonstrate how relievers have less market value than starters, calling into serious question the Twins strategy of making big FA investments in mid-tier starters, generally refusing to make any investments in adding outside relief help, and in fact converting promising cheap internal starting talent to relief roles instead.

I have been presenting it more as a fact, because some folks here seem to be disputing that fact. But if you want to look at it as an argument, consider that relievers (particularly non-closers) are generally less valuable on the open market than starters. And then ask yourself if it's the best use of resources to generally refuse to sign or trade for a reliever, and instead convert a young starter -- arguably your best starter in terms of strikeout ability -- to the role.

Fan salaries are irrelevant to this discussion. The $1.3 million estimate I provided isn't May's current salary -- he wouldn't be due to receive that for another 2 years. And in the meantime, if he stays in a non-closer relief role, he would have almost zero leverage to get any kind of reasonable arbitration buyout extension, to sacrifice future earnings for some kind of guaranteed minimum. So in the short term, being in the bullpen means Trevor May is probably pitching without a financial safety net for at least the next 2 years, more so than he would be if he was starting.

Actually that would be a factor for May as early as his arbitration seasons. Getting only $1.3 mil in his first big payday (like Fien & Jepsen) rather than $2.7 mil (like Milone) kind of sucks for the player. Especially when he could get hurt at any time and that could be his peak earnings.

Interesting, thanks. I was suspecting that might be the direction they go -- last year they needed a setup man in August, but they might figure they have that addressed by others now (return of Perkins moving Jepsen back to setup, a healthy Fien and Pressly, probably Abad and possibly Kintzler. If Nolasco makes the rotation and Duffey goes to AAA, May might be the only reliever seen as capable of pitching multiple innings. Might be seen as a way to avoid the back issues he had after moving to the pen last year too...

I wonder if they still see May as a top setup guy. If they don't carry a true long reliever, I could see them using May more for longer relief assignments, assuming Perkins, Jepsen, and Fien are all healthy (plus Abad and Kintzler if they make the club).

All season.

Thanks for sharing. Obviously he wasn't much of a prospect, but being a Cardinals late round draftee is pretty good company, as far as late round draftees go. Sounds like he's looking for a front office job now, but he just turned 24. I'd hope the Cardinals would invite him back to play if he wants to try again, or at least release him to play elsewhere (assuming they still hold his rights).

Unless Duffey scuffles in AAA, I'd guess he would be first in line. I don't think the Twins are in that big of a rush to get Berrios up here.

But you could at least put butter on it, right? Was lutefisk offered at the same buffet? I'd check myself, but "norwegian-food-reference.com" seems to be down right now...

Generally agreed. Quentin and Sweeney can't even opt out of their minor league contracts until June 1, as I understand, so there is no real imperative to add them to the roster for opening day. So we can easily afford another chance for Arcia. That said, Arcia is looking more and more like a bust every day. It happens sometimes. He obviously didn't have the past MLB success, but a lot of people here made a statement similar to yours about Joe Benson a few years ago. Arcia is closer to Benson circa 2013 right now than he is to Ortiz circa 2002-2003. Arcia was already around replacement level even with his early career power. If Arcia's power is gone (and it largely was in 2015, .107 ISO in MLB, .090 in the second half at AAA, .000 so far this spring), that's a pretty bad player.

Are you sure you don't mean lutefisk (a jelly-like fish dish)? Lefsa is just bread, and I've never seen it characterized as gross. Lutefisk, on the other hand, is almost universally characterized as gross...

Well, Beltran is almost 39 years old, and posted a -14 Rfield last year. And as mentioned by another poster, he's a FA next winter, and Ellsbury missed significant time last year (and got benched for the wild card game). And Gardner, the healthiest one, is just returning from an injury today himself, and has been the subject of trade rumors. I think it's quite likely that there could be a starting job there, very soon for Hicks, if his performance warrants one (as well as if/when there is an injury).

See my post above -- I think Seth overstated their chances a bit, although they could certainly sneak onto those rosters.

Herrmann is competing for a starting job in Arizona? Seems unlikely, they are returning their 2015 starter Welington Castillo (116 OPS+). Herrmann has received some at-bats this spring, but not many games at catcher (only 5th most on the team). I could see him beating out Gosewisch for the backup job, although Arizona seems like the kind of team that would like an old-school backup guy like Gosewisch. And now that Molina has returned to game action for St. Louis, I doubt that Fryer has a "good chance" at the backup up job there. Molina will start as long as he is remotely able, they signed Brayan Pena to a 2 year, $5 mil deal this winter to be the backup, and they also have an interesting prospect Mike Ohlman on their 40-man roster who could soon make a good platoon partner with Pena if Molina goes down again.

Also, here is the current order of starters: Santana / Berrios Gibson Hughes / May Nolasco / Duffey Milone That looks like their preferred season-opening rotation, barring injury or trade. The backup starters even seem arranged by preference and potential opportunity (ranking Duffey, May, and finally Berrios, with the top two likely needing replacement being Nolasco and Hughes). Santana would be in line to start opening day on regular rest, and Gibson would start the home opener too, which seems like the kind of opportunity/reward the Twins would plan for those two.

Maybe addressed elsewhere, but why did Duffey start a minor league game on Sunday? Nolasco had a 60 pitch limit in the MLB game, and we spent 4 IP on relievers who were immediately sent to minor league camp after the game. To me, that implies Duffey is probably the odd starter out right now.

Checking B-Ref this morning, it looks like my Opposition Quality ("OppQual") ranking theory produces a pretty likely roster now, with the exception of Park (who of course is playing under special circumstances this spring). Relief Pitchers May Jepsen Graham* Kintzler Fien Perkins Abad * I'd still guess Pressly takes Graham's spot here, but Graham does still lead in the early "OppQual" rankings, and maybe the team would want Pressly to start at AAA as a sort of rehab after his injury shortened 2015? Catchers Suzuki Murphy Infielders Santana Escobar Dozier Plouffe Nunez Outfielders Rosario Arcia Sano Buxton 1B/DH Mauer Park** ** Like I said, Park actually trails a couple guys in OppQual but that's more a function of his extra early usage And of course OppQual doesn't really matter for judging starting pitcher "opportunity" so I'll just pick a likely 5, bumping Duffey. Starting Pitchers Santana Hughes Gibson Nolasco Milone Quentin and Sweeney are close behind too, I could see one of them taking Arcia's spot. Santana's positional versatility probably preserves his spot, although they have given Rosario a few looks in CF lately, and Sweeney has some reps there too. And "second backup infielder" probably isn't as vital given the starting group we have.

Cuddyer walked away from about $10 mil this winter (after buyout).

Interesting. Some money saved for the Sox. Thankfully for us he didn't retire earlier in the winter or the Sox could have better re-allocated that money and filled his roster spot (like Park).

I usually watch live, but now that you've mentioned it, in the rare instances I've tried your approach of skipping to particular innings, I've seen similar issues, and I've seen them reported elsewhere, so I doubt there is an easy fix.

Cuddyer was indeed hobbled a bit in spring training 2011, playing only 8 games and recording 21 AB. But it's not at all correct to say the team was nearly injury-free: Mauer played even less (8 games, 20 AB), the lowest spring training playing time of his career by far. And Morneau only played 11 games, also career lows and about half as much as most healthy regulars, and batted .152/.194/.242 in his recently concussed state. The pitching staff was healthier, although Nathan still looked very rough coming back from TJS that spring.

Only Schafer started on opening day, of those three. Presley didn't even make a Twins opening day roster. Mastroianni only did once (2013), and didn't get an AB until the team's 8th game of the season. The Twins went with youth (Hicks) to start at this spot in 2013-2014, and arguably could have again in 2015 (no Schafer) had they not felt burned by Hicks' performance in 2013-2014.

Good point on Kintzler needing a spot too, if he makes the team. I'd guess that would be Strong's spot. At that point, we really would start losing 40-man flexibility, barring injury. Dean is probably safe for a little while longer, considering he was just added this winter. I could see them not wanting to lose Vargas in-season for nothing. Arcia and Santana would probably only get dropped to add their direct replacements (Quentin and Sweeney at the moment). Maybe O'Rourke would be next on the bubble list? Otherwise, the roster will mostly be filled with guys who aren't easily cut (at least not by this front office).

I'm not sure exactly what the plan was for Santana, but obviously he was very young, it was an upside selection. Any Rule 5 success seems very much "take what you can get" but yeah, it's hard to pat the Twins on the back too much for "good picks" in Pressly and Graham when they seem to be considered part of the same group of fungible relievers we already have in AAA, on MILB deals, etc.