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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario had a solid season, but as I mentioned in the prediction thread, he's a big stagnation candidate. If he's hovering in the 90-something OPS+ range, it is still useful combined with plus corner defense but it is not something that will block Kepler if he repeats his AA success at Rochester. When combined with Sano getting breaks from RF duty (will happen), and Buxton likely needing breaks as he experiences rookie struggles in CF, plus some propensity for injury among a few of these guys, there is opportunity to break into this outfield. I'm not convinced Kepler will force his way into a spot yet this year though anyway. Repeating his AA success immediately at AAA is a tall order.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Also Seth, you seem to be predicting +.020 in batting average for just about every player. Does that mean you are predicting a big cutback in strikeouts for all of these guys? Sometimes I think it's too easy to add 20 points of batting average as a reasonable expectation for improvement, without considering how they achieve that other than good luck. Rosario, if he strikes out at the same rate in 2016 (and he showed no signs of slowing over the course of the season last year), he would need a 22 point jump in BABIP, up to .354, to achieve your "modest" 15 point increase in average. That .354 would be his best full season BABIP of his pro career to date, at least since rookie league ball. This team, under this hitting coach, hasn't really shown any signs of controlling strikeouts yet. Predicting across the board increases in batting average feels a little like predicting across the board unwarranted strikeout increases for our staff too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    True, major regression like Danny Santana is unlikely. But I think Rosario is a decent stagnation candidate, hovering in the 90-something OPS+ range. With the extremes he is currently at for strikeouts and lack of walks, I'm not sure how one can predict immediate improvement.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Reusse has made the less delicate statement on his radio show that he believes Sano is basically broke because of his "family and friends" mooching off his bonus. So now he's doing things like switching agencies and attending autograph shows to make more money. Reusse suggested the Twins give him frequent weight clause bonuses instead.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, in 2011 the velocity didn't ramp up for Nathan (although he was coming off of TJS).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't it spring 2011 when Joe Nathan couldn't find his velocity? Of course, he was coming back from TJS, although Perk has a bit to prove himself after his injury issues last year.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the report! FYI, Kintzler isn't a lefty.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. You might as well say we couldn't add Park because we'd presumably have to dump someone and lose depth to make room. But you know what? We didn't have to, just moved some guys around. No depth lost. Same here. Nolasco is basically Arcia in the Park situation, getting shifted to a backup/platoon role based as much on his suspect recent health and performance as any new acquisition.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I pretty much guarantee they won't cut Dean from the 40-man before opening day. They only just added him a few months ago. I am not sure if the Twins have ever added a guy in November and turned around and dropped him from the 40-man before opening day. The 40-man roster bubble spots are Arcia and Tonkin. That is all they really need.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    But certainly you see that while moving Milone could get May into the rotation, it wasn't necessary to get him into the rotation. In fact, it wasn't even the easiest and most expedient way -- let May compete with Nolasco, and let Nolasco earn his way back into the rotation from a bullpen spot if necessary.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, that wasn't necessarily the choice. Keep Milone, put Nolasco in the pen (or at least let May compete with him and "The Duffman" until the end of spring training), and you're done. No SP lost. Now, some posters have certainly suggested dealing Milone, but that absolutely was not necessary to get May into the rotation.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the news. Not surprising at all, if his spot was really in jeopardy, I don't think they would have had him bouncing all over the field. Personally, I think the competitions are down to Arcia vs Quentin, and then Tonkin vs. Kintzler vs. O'Rourke vs Runzler for the last spot in the pen.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    As far as I can tell, RUNzler gives up runs (5.26 ERA at AAA last year), and KINtzler is almost kin (spent the last 6 years in Milwaukee).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth's roster projection had Buxton in AAA, and Tonkin on the team (as one of 8 relievers).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Personally, I don't assume he's a No. 2. But it would be nice to give him a chance. It's pretty clear we're already willing to move Nolasco to the pen, so there's your rotation spot for May without reducing starting depth. And the only reason it would severely weaken the pen is because we didn't sign anybody else for the pen, counting on May to be there. Pick up Mark Lowe this winter, or Benoit, etc. and all of a sudden, May isn't critical to the pen. (And if he eventually has to move there anyway, he could be part of a really great pen.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The rotation isn't completely full, though. We have no long-term commitment to Gibson or Milone, and the end of Nolasco's commitment is in sight too. Clearing one spot isn't that hard to do, we were basically ready to do it for Duffey.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I'm not understanding the Runzler predictions either. Unless they mean Kintzler?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins usually have a lot more than 2 or 3 off days in February. Actually, during the season, 3 off days per month is standard. The only months that don't have 3 off days are July (all-star break) and August (2). But I agree, 7 relievers is by far the likeliest configuration.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that Sweeney was freely available the winter/spring we first gave the job to Hicks...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough. Although I don't think we can so easily predict a universal pecking order for all situations. The next starter could be coming up for a doubleheader, or another time specific need.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    All three, at once?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, the clause you seem to overlooking is IF Meyer does well. If he was doing as well or better than Duffey or Berrios, he might even get a fill-in start or two if his turn happens to line up better. I don't think it is likely that he performs that well again, that quickly, but IF he does, it could happen. He lost his starting gig last year because he sucked, so if they put him back at starter and he performs well again, I don't see why he couldn't reclaim the similar consideration he had before he sucked. Of course, if a bullpen need comes up first, as Chief alludes to, that could take him out of the starting mix.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer is on the 40-man? It's a big "if" to be sure, basically he'd have to start throwing like he did in 2013-2014 again. And if the rotation opening wasn't necessarily long-term, maybe a spot start or two or three while a guy goes on the 15 day DL, that could make it less likely to be Berrios too. I like Berrios, and I am sure the Twins like him, but the idea that he is destined to be first in line to come up, as early as 2 weeks into the season, regardless of everything else doesn't seem likely.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You were discussing the starting rotation, no? Trevor May is already on the MLB staff, that is not the issue at hand.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    They're not "locked in" to Nolasco, if this spring's competition is to be believed.
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