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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that, how many plate appearances did Kepler get in his first two option years? Of course he gets four options, but still. Yorman Landa may not get any MLB innings in his first two option years either. It is the nature of the beast. I suspect they are either comfortable trading him soon or using him as at least their primary utility guy next year. I might like to see him play more positions right now, but otherwise I can't fault them too much at this point. They are quite far from burying him and having to waive or DFA him like Arcia.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, this rationalization can be used for any pro athlete. We used it for Colabello -- he was just trying to succeed. We've used it for countless others -- they were trying not to let down the team. Despite the different background, I really don't think these reasons for Park to play through injury are all that different from the reasons driving the average pro athlete.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    At this point, it is hard to know if it is just lip service or not. I am guessing Ryan would have said the same thing when asked in past years. It is a very different thing to actually do it, and do it in a meaningful way (obviously anyone would throw in a few million to get a top 100 prospect at a position of need, but what if it is not so obvious?).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, a good prospect is a good asset. I wouldn't worry too much about position of need, or how close they are to the majors (although obviously better prospects are generally considered closer to the majors).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. Not a lot of benefit to dealing him just for, say, a C prospect and salary relief.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    But he already struck out 32% of the time last year, at age 21 with zero career MLB appearances. It's a little concerning that he hasn't moved that needle forward in a year (and in fact let the needle fall back dramatically for a while earlier this season).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    But couldn't the same be said of Gibson, Cashner, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X? How much is Ervin Santana really providing in this scenario, above and beyond what his FA replacement could be?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like the Twins Labor Day game isn't on the FSN broadcast schedule either. And Memorial Day was on ESPN. Maybe they are trying to give FSN employees the holidays off?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think most of our examples of not eating salary are from the Target Field era. The Morneau trade saga of August 2013 comes to mind (Pittsburgh wanted him, but we wouldn't kick in any cash, so it waited until August 31st when their owner finally approved adding his final month's salary). Besides, it appears likely we will already be "eating" $2.5 mil of Jepsen's salary, perhaps some of Milone's or Nolasco's if that is how we open a rotation spot for Berrios -- I highly doubt they would consider sending money with Ervin too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but the thin crop of FA SP might save us from ourselves too. There aren't a lot of Edwin Jacksons, Matt Garzas, Ricky Nolascos, or Ubaldo Jimenez's to sink a lot of money into this winter -- I'm not convinced that the bidding will reach that high for, say, Andrew Cashner. Our veteran FA SP addition could come in lower than Santana's remaining 2.5 year, $34 million guarantee. With a lower salary and age, such an addition might be easier to move at the 2017 deadline too if we so desire.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I've read a lot lately about how police have to work in harm's way, and I don't doubt that is true. (It was certainly true in Dallas last night, and in many other situations.) But the officer in St. Anthony doesn't seem to have gone particularly close to harm's way before he decided to preemptively fire. The officer had a weapon drawn, the victim did not; the officer had a more advantageous physical position; the officer had backup, with presumably more on the way. Same thing for other recent incidents where police have shot unarmed individuals already tackled to the ground by other police officers -- sure, there was a chance those individuals could have grabbed a weapon (usually from one of the cops tackling him) and caused more trouble, but I think that chance has to be a lot higher before a trained officer should take a life. (Also an aside: if there are multiple officers on the scene and only one suspect -- maybe have an unarmed officer do the tackling?)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We don't know everything, but we do know a bit more than the "he said-she said" -- we've got images of the immediate aftermath, that show a man (without a weapon drawn) dying while seated in a car with his girlfriend and child, and a cop continuing to point his gun at the dying man. Feel free to fill in the blanks however you want about the words and actions that preceded that image, but it's almost impossible to justify the cop's actions.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a good FA SP class by any means, but I'm not sure if this is really an accurate list of the "top guys" anymore. Rich Hill, Bud Norris, Doug Fister, Jeremy Hellickson, and Andrew Cashner are all healthier and performing better than Weaver, Wilson, and Anderson. RA Dickey and Bartolo Colon are still getting it done at an advanced age. Maybe Sabathia and Jason Hammel, if their options aren't picked up. Other bounceback guys with recent success would include Buchholz and Colby Lewis. A lot of these guys aren't that different from Ervin Santana (career ERA- of 101, FIP- of 103), and will settle for 2/28 or less.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    There are a few. Danny Valencia, Zach Cozart, Yunel Escobar, and David Freese were mentioned in MLBTR's most recent top 20 trade candidate piece, as well as Sean Rodriguez, Steve Pearce, Jed Lowrie, and Mark Reynolds as guys with recent infield experience in the honorable mention group (alongside Plouffe and Nunez): http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/top-20-trade-candidates.html
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that Aaron Hill trade. Aaron Wilkerson isn't exactly a prospect, but he is definitely interesting. I would have dealt Plouffe and cash for him (obviously before Plouffe's injury, although I could see Hill as being preferable anyway). I don't think anyone is looking to Gourriel for 2016 help, at this point.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Wilson also just had shoulder surgery, although it sounds like he plans to return for 2017: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/c-j-wilson-to-undergo-shoulder-surgery.html Still, for a team in the Twins position, if we could add a decent prospect and get out of most of Santana's remaining guaranteed cash, we could always take a bit of that cash savings and invest it in a cheap bounceback vet like Wilson too. Probably not worth it for just the cash savings alone, but hypothetically if there was a decent prospect involved, you'd have to consider it.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    It's hard to say, but the Braves picked up BA's #71 prospect last year (Touki Toussaint) by eating the $10.1 mil remaining on Bronson Arroyo's deal, so I might guess your estimate is a little low. Depends on the prospect, of course.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The issue is, someone trading for Ervin in July 2016 primarily wants the benefit of his 2016 performance. They might not mind having him for 2017-2018 too, but they would probably want a discount on those years if they are giving up anything noteworthy in terms of prospects. Put another way, I can't think of anyone traded with as much as ~$34 mil guaranteed remaining that didn't have some kind of financial component to the deal, either cash or taking back another contract.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind this doesn't include 2016 draftees or international signings, and a number of guys have graduated off the list. So it probably shouldn't be compared to other lists, but it can be an interesting relative gauge of prospect value.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd buy them on the secondary market too, but I wouldn't necessarily wait until the day of the game or most of the best deals will likely be gone. If you can plan just a little bit ahead, I'd start checking daily a week or so beforehand. Stubhub is popular, but they do have fees. I've had better luck with SeatGeek lately. It might be worth checking Twins Daily partner Ticket King too, they have a more or less permanent 10% off code DAILYDOUBLE. You can roam around the stadium pretty well, but there are some exclusive areas where you will need a special ticket. I like to get close to the field, so Dugout Box seats are nice -- SeatGeek has some for that series at $40 already, hopefully by September you can score those for $25-30 each. Or if you are frugal, cheap seats are $6 now and I've seen them go as low as $3. If money is no object, you may eventually be able to score some Champions Club seats for ~$120 which include free food and drink (although I find that experience overkill for enjoying a ballgame). Here was some recent discussion about food and beverage at the stadium too: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23097-best-food-or-beverage-deal-at-target-field/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Was the weather thing just a joke then? Sorry if I missed it, that happens if it is too subtle and there's no emoticon
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that is key. If the Twins are finally ready to cut bait on Nolasco (and to a lesser degree Milone), they don't need to clear Santana's spot. Keeping him as the rotation vet for 2/28 after this season is fine, assuming only a modest/marginal prospect could come back in trade. However, if the Twins refuse to move on from Nolasco, there are worse ways to clear a rotation spot than finding a taker for the remaining guarantee on Santana's deal. I really wish Berrios was starting in place of Nolasco or Milone this weekend, but bare minimum, tonight should be Berrios's last AAA start. The Twins need to make room for him.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, I highly doubt the Twins will have offers, let alone multiple offers, for Nolasco. Unless by "offers" you include "we'll take him off your hands for the league minimum salary if you pay the rest" (aka "we'll take a flier on him after you release him").
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, his slow start last year in Minnesota was in July. And his worst month by ERA this year so far is June. I'd guess weather has very little to do with explaining these performances, it's probably just the standard variation inherent in all player performances -- a 4.00 ERA pitcher will have some months at 5.00, some months at 3.00, etc.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly has an option remaining. Tonkin won't be a super two unless he clear waivers and gets outrighted at some point. He is on track to finish this year with 2 years and 5 days service time, well short of the commonly cited 2 year ~120 day super two threshold; would then be a first time arb eligible after 2017 with 3 years service, and free agent after 2020 with 6 years service.
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