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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    He wasn't altogether that effective in college, hence why he was a 24th rounder. Not at all clear that workload caused his ineffectiveness late in 2013.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, De Leon threw 135 IP combined between college and the pros in 2013, his draft year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not only is there no rule violation here, but both sides are taking some risk. Obviously Jansen could get hurt, or if another team's closer got hurt, there could be a new increased offer for Jansen too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Was Justin Turner also invited to attend Jansen's honeymoon? Also, unlike Turner, Jansen may make his offseason home outside the country.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Wait a minute -- what rule is allegedly being circumvented here? Jansen is not pitching for the Dodgers right now, so he doesn't have to be on the roster or officially under contract. Am I missing something? If Jansen had a problem with it, he would be free to sign elsewhere -- he is still technically a free agent. Since that hasn't happened, I am guessing Jansen hasn't cared yet (and/or much of the delay was his fault).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That is fair. But then again, everybody here wants significantly MORE than just De Leon. History doesn't suggest that is likely at the deadline (and might not be likely right now, apparently).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's definitely one of the lower offers we've seen here, even from Dodger fans -- but it likely matches up pretty well with what the Dodgers are willing to part with at the present moment.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? As far as we know, the Dodgers aren't shopping De Leon around the league, they just said they would be willing to send him to the Twins in exchange for Dozier. Dozier is the one being shopped. The Twins are even still talking about him to other teams. It's not up to the Dodgers to retract their offer in that case -- for all we know, De Leon might still be the best offer, why would they have to retract it? I mean, I guess it is mostly semantics, but I really don't understand this attitude that the Dodgers are the ones responsible for dragging this out. Virtually every report has said they have had the same offer on the table for at least a month, and the Twins have been shopping that offer around in that time.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone here, on either side of the debate, feel Dozier is worth basically just De Leon. Almost everyone has proposed substantially more than that. I don't even think the Dodgers feel that Dozier is only worth De Leon -- they just aren't comfortable committing the necessary second and third pieces to get it done right now.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco had to be added to the 40-man roster and was using options anyway (players on the 40 man have to be optioned just to be assigned to the minors out of spring training) -- the Twins didn't burn them with those brief call-ups. They actually bungled the timing of his minor league assignments during the 2010 season which left him ineligible for a 4th option year, but that is a different issue. I suppose you could also make the argument that they should have given him more MLB time during his option years, but I suspect they felt they already knew what they had in him so it wasn't a big concern.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems a stretch to say the Dodgers have overplayed their hand when the Twins haven't been able to generate any other interest in Dozier. He will still be available for the foreseeable future (even if they stop actively shopping him). If your trade or FA target goes somewhere else, or a hard deadline like July 31st passes, then maybe you've overplayed your hand. At worst, the Dodgers and Twins would seem to just table discussions.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Would a Colome package even top a De Leon led package by that much?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Tampa could just send Forsythe to LA.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Puig's salary is pretty much exactly offset by Dozier's. He's not making much. I think the debt ratio thing was overblown, but if it was a big deal, they probably wouldn't have given raises to Turner and Jansen, and they'd probably need to move McCarthy or Kazmir, not Puig. And Puig was their best hitter vs LHP last year, it would kinda defeat the purpose of adding Dozier to ship him out in the process.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are the ones who have kept Dozier on the market, it is sort of up to them to pull him back if they aren't getting what they want. Or do you expect the Dodgers to completely retract their offer while the Twins are still publicly shopping him to the Cardinals, etc.? I think it helps to not consider their discussions so far as offers. I think Dave's source is the only one so far who has really suggested they got very far in talks. It is more likely that they talked, the Dodgers told them what they are comfortable giving up right now, and the Twins told them what it would take to move him, and that was it. The Twins have tried to dialogue with other clubs too, without much success. I don't think the Dodgers were expecting the Twins to deal him for De Leon right now, but they've figured out his price for future reference. The Dodgers still have the pieces to easily meet the Twins demands in July if they want -- by then, they will know better if their staff can withstand the losses of both De Leon and Stewart, or if Alvarez and Buehler are ready to convert their potential into big value gains.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't it the Twins that have to walk away? It seems like they are the ones that have dragged this out. I kinda doubt that the Dodgers would be continually bringing it up if their offer hasn't materially changed.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Fangraphs has Verdugo at 55 FV, same as De Leon and a step above Buehler (50).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Think of it as less of an argument, and more of an explanation. Nothing has happened on this trade front, and we are seeking to explain why. Figuring their prospect valuations seems a better explanation than "the Dodgers are stupid". And don't worry, the Dodgers can't force the Twins to accept a subpar offer, so there is really no reason to get upset with them.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    There are other stats besides HR, you know. Dozier was worse in 2015 than 2014 in most categories, including critical K and BB rates.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    So they are very different players, with very different contract situations -- but somehow they are analogous? There are plenty of valid arguments that Dozier is a fine player worthy of strong valuation in trade -- but Harmon Killebrew and 1964 don't figure into any of them.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    How did he improve in 2015? Mind you, I am not denigrating Dozier, but you're resorting to some suspect arguments here. To the extent that folks seem to be denigrating him, remember no one here is endorsing giving him away for De Leon alone. We just don't have anything else to talk about.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. I was speaking generically. De Leon and Stewart are their top two pitching reinforcements for 2017 so I can understand the reluctance. If that's the case, it seems odd that no one in the media mentions Stewart specifically, though -- Alvarez, Buehler, and Bellinger get many specific mentions. Berardino reported the Twins interest in Stewart a while ago, but there's really been no mention of him since. And if they are reluctant to send Stewart away at the same time as De Leon, I wonder what guys they are willing to include. Verdugo, Calhoun, Sheffield, others? If they still had those 3 guys they gave up for Hill and Reddick, perhaps the deal would be done already.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, inexperienced, further away -- however you frame it, their immediate values are low. In the first year or two of their career, a new top draftee or international signing is going to get valued more like a Brock Stewart as a baseline. Not a headliner, more like a 2nd or even 3rd complementary piece. That doesn't mean they are available though. Faced with that decision, teams would usually rather include the Stewart instead and hold onto the new guy, whose value is unlikely to drop much from that baseline in the near future but could rise quickly.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    oWAR includes the positional adjustment. If you want to compare hitting only, better to use Rbat. Turner easily beat Dozier in that measure in 2014-2015. (Of course it is a counting stat too, which could be a consideration.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, you are completely missing my point. Obviously prospect values can go down. But I am talking about the specific circumstances of well-regarded amateurs who are just starting their pro careers like Alvarez and Buehler. They have some value due to their potential, but their values start relatively low due to inexperience. That potential/inexperience combination is unlikely to change in the short term -- they pretty much have a baseline of their current modest value for the next year or two, barring a catastrophic event. Odds are, either Alvarez or Buehler can be the second piece in a good trade package for the next year, almost regardless of performance. Alvarez might even hold that value through TJ surgery, much like Buehler has done. There isn't much upside for the Dodgers to include either as second pieces right now. That is one reason why you generally don't see recent amateur signings/draftees packaged in trades.
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