Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    3-4 months less, but same number of pennant races and potential postseasons.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Aaron Brooks wasn't a relief arm, he was a pretty fungible AAAA piece. That trade was pretty much all Manaea, who was rated a bit lower than De Leon too and had only 2 starts above A ball at the time. Also, Zobrist was coming off averaging 6.2 bWAR over the previous 6 seasons, and had a career 117 OPS+ and postseason experience. Dozier is averaging 4.5 bWAR over the last 4 with a 108 career OPS+.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Another thing is that Lucroy had ~$9 mil less salary obligations at the time. Also, if you capitalize the letter "c" in Lucroy like Matt LeCroy, I think that diminishes the perception of his value.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe Santiago could fetch an Alex Meyer type?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Lucroy had multiple suitors offering that kind of deal. Dozier doesn't even have one.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Think we can still only get 1 comp pick. Other teams may have to forfeit 2 picks, but we wouldn't get them.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I suspect that they haven't actually talked much. But the original mutual interest in De Leon remains and neither team has gone a different direction yet, so the whole thing remains open even if there are no real ongoing talks or negotiations.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, most of these guys aren't necessarily untouchable, just not in a package with DeLeon. No one has really addressed any combinations without De Leon. Not that this suggests there is a better Dodgers offer, but it suggests there hasn't been much for negotiations so I am not sure if the minimal discussions so far can even be classified as offers.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they've backed off their original high asking price, at least not meaningfully so. If that was the case, we probably would have seen some sort of consensus emerge on a second piece, and the debate would have shifted to a third piece. My guess is the two teams agreed on De Leon as a starting point, and the Twins have probably asked for so much as the second piece that the Dodgers haven't even bothered formally adding a second piece to their offer (there isn't much point in doing so if it isn't going to complete the trade). This seems consistent with the virtually nonexistent offers from other clubs -- I think the Twins asking price has stayed high enough that no one else is going to bother making offers either. And it's not necessarily a bad strategy as long as the Dodgers don't appear close to landing another 2B.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I get your joke/comparison, but Rivas peaked at #55 by BA, and was down to #93 by the time the Twins gave him a MLB job.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Looked at another way: In order to make a Dozier trade happen today, most observers agree the Twins would require something like De Leon and Alvarez. The Dodgers need Bellinger as an offensive reinforcement soon, perhaps as much or more than they need Dozier (by WAA, their 1B were equal to the 2B in 2016, and their LF were much worse). By July, to address an inevitable need at the trade deadline, the Dodgers would be pretty much down to maybe Buehler and possibly Verdugo as top pieces. They might not be able to compete for top targets like Chris Archer, and if they acquire anyone, their vaunted system could be largely cleared out by August. Barring another serious bidder at 2B, I think it makes sense to wait to see how things develop. Dozier is unlikely to go off the market, and the Dodgers will still probably have the pieces to make a deal in July even if tbr price hasn't gone down. But in the meantime, they can adjust to their developing needs and opportunities. Maybe by July, the Marlins are ready for another fire sale with Dee Gordon? Maybe the Dodgers want to go all-in with a guy like Archer, and can get Forsythe included at a relative discount?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this thread back to 2000s era Twins comparisons again? The Dodgers have been allocating record payrolls and consistently making aggressive midseason trades like Rich Hill, Hanley Ramirez, and Adrian Gonzalez. Just because they're not addressing their 2B need as quickly as you like doesn't make a 2000s era Twins comparison accurate. And in fairness to the Dodgers, the fact that they haven't acquired any 2B yet this winter suggests they are truly exploring possibilities, even if they eventually circle back to a temporary patch to open the season. The 2000s era Twins would have already locked in Rivas or Punto and called it a day.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    According to B-Ref, the Dodgers got virtually league average production at 2B in 2016 (-0.2 WAA). They were far worse in LF (-1.8 WAA). I fully expect the Dodgers to make a move to address 2B in the next 6 months, but if the current price is apparently two top prospects and the supply (primarily Dozier and Forsythe) isn't likely to change much, it probably behooves them to wait it out a bit.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Twins second pick is up to #35 overall now: http://m.mlb.com/draft/2017/order Neither LA team has two picks above us. Toronto, Texas, and the Cubs all have two picks each, but they are all in the 22-30 range so probably won't have a lot of bonus pool cash to play with either. The Reds would probably be the tough one, since they pick 2nd and 32nd, and perhaps the Rays at 4th and 31st. (Also Oakland and Milwaukee pick at 6 and 9, and again at 33 and 34, respectively.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    And I like Brock Stewart, but I'm not sure why we'd swap Jorge Polanco for him. We should generally be trying to keep controllable young assets. I think earlier "Polanco to the Dodgers" suggestions here met a similar response.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that article too, and I'm not sure why they say Forsythe isn't easily replaced. Their depth chart currently shows Brad Miller starting at 1B. They have former prospect Nick Franklin in a utility role, after he played almost exclusively at 2B in AAA last year and then finally looked like a MLB hitter when called up. Not to mention other interesting utility options like Daniel Robertson and Tim Beckham. Plus Willy Adames as an infield reinforcement at AAA. They may not be able to fully match Forsythe's overall production from the past 2 years, but I think someone from that group could come close enough, at least until Adames is ready. I think the issue with the Rays is the same with the Twins -- they probably want a better return to move Forsythe right now.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Still, you may want to enlist now, before you could be drafted in June.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    And he resigns with Baltimore. 3 years, $37.5 million. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/orioles-to-sign-mark-trumbo.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes at that point in his career on a 5/55 deal is interesting and not bank-breaking, but it is not super valuable. Hughes at that point in his career on a 2/16 deal is super valuable. Virtually zero risk.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Even with 47 HR, Trumbo was only worth 1.6 bWAR last year. And even ignoring position and defense, Trumbo's hitting was only worth 14 Rbat. Cruz has averaged 38 Rbat in his 40 HR seasons. 40 HR alone doesn't make you a valuable hitter, let alone a valuable player.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I was specifically responding to your claim that Calhoun wasn't the "type" of player we should be looking for. I am saying "type" doesn't really matter IF we like the player, especially beyond the first piece in the deal. We should be able to fit just about any young player into our roster right now. If they don't like Calhoun as a player, fine, obviously they shouldn't accept him, but don't dismiss the value he could bring just because he's not a pitcher.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if the current Twins roster means we can afford to "shop" for specific positions beyond the top piece in the trade. Best player available and all that.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Welcome to the board! Napoli looked pretty toasty in the 2016 postseason: .173/.232/.288. As well as in a tiny sample in the 2015 postseason. And Napoli actually was traded in August 2015 (meaning he cleared waivers), with cash, for a PTBNL or cash. Unless he shows a massive improvement over the 101 OPS+ he's recorded over the last 2 years, he is unlikely to have any meaningful trade value.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry! It would be nice to have an honest to goodness report of something. Even just the Dodgers signing or otherwise acquiring someone else.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no report of Sheffield on the table. It was apparently a Dodgers fan suggesting that as a possible way to break the deadlock. There hasn't been a report of Sheffield off the table either, so he's in the group of guys I think would be in play as the 2nd or 3rd pieces if the Twins were willing to listen.
×
×
  • Create New...