Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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I am not sure why you'd say you have no clue how Levi values the players in question. He has offered plenty of "clues". I am not sure it is reasonable to demand that he put it in number form when few other posters have done so (and when doing so with any accuracy would require a great deal of work). His opinion, even without numerical values attached, seems perfectly clear to me: through various ranks and grades, De Leon seems close enough in value to Dozier for this Twins team and in this market, that adding interesting B/B- second or third pieces likely makes it worth doing from the Twins perspective. Nothing about that seems unreasonable enough to demand that he assign numerical values to each player -- De Leon is a consensus top 20-30 prospect at least by pretty much every observer. If Levi were stating that Chase De Jong plus Trayce Thompson was acceptable, then I think you'd have a case to press for details -- that opinion would be well outside any mainstream opinion on the players in question. But that's not the case.
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No one here is claiming De Leon plus "junk" is a good return for Dozier. Unless you expand the definition of "junk" to include solid B grade, borderline top 100 prospects like Calhoun.
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No one truly believes De Leon is a #2 starter right now. He is a prospect with #2 potential. Re-signing a MLB SP is not incompatible with that belief. (Last I checked, teams generally need at least 5 SP for the regular season, and 4 for the postseason.) Furthermore, there was no better use of $48 mil on this winter's FA market for the Dodgers than re-signing Hill.
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Is it less stilted and hyperbolic than "the Dodgers have offered De Leon to everyone" when they haven't? Or characterizing the Twins and Dodgers settling on De Leon as the top piece in discussions as a decision entirely dictated by the Dodgers? Because those were the posts being responded to. I don't doubt information asymmetry exists, but there doesn't seem to be a rational reason for a Twins fan to really fear it applying here quite yet.
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Don't Sleep On Phil Hughes
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Twins were at 4.46 runs per game. 5 per game would have easily the second-best in the AL, trailing only the Red Sox offensive juggernaut. 4.25 ERA would be basically AL average. The Twins had by far the worst ERA in the AL last year at 5.08. So yeah, if they have league-average pitching and league-leading hitting, they should be pretty good. Not sure of the likelihood of both of those things fully coming true, given the minimal roster changes so far... -
Obviously I think all of us Twins fans would be much more excited if we were in the Dodgers position. I assure you that none of us are truly excited to be coming off a 103 loss season with our current best player set to walk in 2 years. Can't let that cloud our decision-making though.
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Yes. Or even this proposed deal -- are the Twins just trying to get a massive prospect haul for Dozier before his 42 HR shine wears off?
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Are they offering De Leon to everyone? To my knowledge, he hasn't been "offered" anywhere but to the Twins. Most observers suggest De Leon would be too much to offer for Forsythe, and with the no-trade clause looming, I doubt that Kinsler talks have progressed to the point of an offer. See my post above too -- I doubt the De Leon inclusion has been fully dictated by the Dodgers, like a kid offering you their least favorite candy from their Halloween bag. Beyond perhaps Bellinger, I am guessing the Twins want De Leon most of all too -- they just also want Alvarez or Buehler as a second piece.
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I don't think that is a fair read of the situation, though. The Twins and Dodgers started discussing a Dozier trade. The Dodgers have a handful of top prospects. For the discussions to go anywhere, at least one of those top prospects has to be agreed upon by both sides. The Dodgers are trying to improve their present-day offense, so it's natural for them not to want that one prospect to be Bellinger who could slide into LF or 1B by midseason. Similarly, the Twins need pitching, and have a few top position player prospects of their own settling into MLB right now, so it's natural that they don't want that one prospect to be Alvarez or Buehler who are probably 3 years away. So that leaves De Leon as the common target on both sides. I think it's far more likely that the agreement on De Leon was a product of this kind of thinking by both teams, than it was the Dodgers simply trying to dump him off on the Twins instead of other prospects. Beyond that, the disagreement is about the number of top prospects to send in a deal. The Dodgers think it should be 1; the Twins think it should be 2. That doesn't really have much to do with the quality of De Leon as the agreed upon #1 either. I suspect we'd be in the same general situation if the circumstances were a little different and the first commonly agreed upon prospect was Bellinger or Verdugo.
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The success rate of prospects isn't fantastic, but that's a reality of baseball. The number of guys who get traded as top 25 prospects has generally been so small, I don't think we can really make any great determinations from it. Honestly, if you're going to consider the mere offering of a player as suspicious, you're going to find yourself in transactional paralysis.
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FWIW, the Knoblauch trade didn't come until February 6. And the Johan Santana deal was on Feb. 2. Plus those came 10 years apart in 1998 and 2008... maybe the Twins will wait until February 2018 for continued transactional symmetry.
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Well, the Twins of that era almost certainly never projected as close to the best team in baseball (even coming off 96 wins in 2006, our starting pitching was in shambles for 2007 with Liriano hurt and Radke finished). They had less of a cushion to wait out the market than the 2017 Dodgers likely have. And if TR or Bill Smith had signed White and Batista in the offseason, but then shown an ability and willingness to close deals like Cliff Lee at the deadline, I think it could have worked out better. The Dodgers have picked up guys like Rich Hill, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez midseason in recent years. I think it's virtually 100% guaranteed that barring injury, Enrique Hernandez and Chase Utley will not be the Dodgers starting 2B on August 1st, and quite possibly earlier. The only question is, do they act now or later, and given the rest of their roster and the 2B market, I think you can make a prudent argument to wait a bit longer.
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The Twins are also at a disadvantage because we don't have any great assets to pair with Dozier. Ervin Santana is a solid arm to hold down a rotation spot, but not that desirable for a team aiming to push deep into the playoffs. Likewise we don't have any healthy ace relievers at the moment. Meanwhile, the Rays for example have Chris Archer and Alex Colome, both of whom they have previously dangled in trade. By July, if their own chances don't look very good (not unlikely in the AL East), they might become the primary trade targets of the Dodgers, and a guy like Forsythe could just be supplemental piece (like Josh Reddick in the Rich Hill deal last year). The Dodgers certainly have the top prospects to pull off such a blockbuster if they need to -- but maybe not so easily if they drop a couple on just Dozier right now.
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Sure, they have a need at 2B. But they have to be forward-thinking, not only about their own need but the available options. As much as we love our Twins, Dozier is likely to still be on the market come July for no more than the Twins are demanding for him now. No one else appears poised to swoop in and pay that price, and the Twins don't have great chances of contending themselves either. And while the Dodgers' 95 win projection at Fangraphs doesn't guarantee them anything, it does suggest they have a bit of a cushion to wait this out further and take advantage of the above factors.
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Smyly had a cost factor. He's probably due ~$15 mil over the next two seasons, which is big money for the Rays. With the same ~$15 mil over two seasons owed him, and cheaper / longer controlled infield assets around him, Forsythe is probably on the market too. But he has the same market problem as Dozier, so there's no real urgency for the Dodgers to decide. Maybe the Dodgers still prefer Dozier at a higher cost, just not as high of a cost as the Twins are demanding right now.
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Yes, and while Dozier would certainly help in this department, even that need seems somewhat overstated -- RHB Justin Turner probably won't post another 77 wRC+ vs LHP, and one of their best hitters by rate vs LHP (Puig) is expected to get more playing time in 2017.
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The Dodgers clinched their division with 6 games to go -- they led by 8 games at that point. Their playoff seeding was virtually guaranteed with 3 games to go too. How much should they care that they got swept after that? Does re-signing Rich Hill not register as any kind of meaningful improvement? He only made 6 regular season starts for the Dodgers in 2016. He's still a bit of a wild card, but having him under contract for a full season should count for something. Also, Dodgers non-pitchers were 4th in the NL, and 7th in MLB, in wRC+ last season. It's not so much that their whole offense was "utterly mediocre" but their pitchers hitting was positively dreadful, easily the worst of any NL contending team. And despite your assertions, Fangraphs still has the Dodgers projected at the highest win total in MLB for 2017, and a higher projected lead over 2nd place than several other division winners. (And while the Giants are the best projected 2nd place team in MLB, the 3-5 spots in the NL West are some of MLB's projected worst, which limits their potential divisional competition.) No one is saying that anything is guaranteed or that they don't have areas where they can improve, of course, but they are in roughly as good of a preseason position as any MLB team could reasonably be.
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And while it gives me hope that the Dodgers haven't acquired another 2B yet, since they are the only serious buyers, they don't really have to. No one else is likely to swoop in and deal for Dozier or Forstythe right now. Utley isn't going to sign somewhere else until LA goes a different direction.
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Sure, but look at the names. They don't have 5 solid guys anymore. They have 3 plus hoping for a major comeback from Cobb plus a swingman in Andriese. They're not bad, but they could definitely be helped by De Leon or even Stewart.
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The Rays rotation is decent but hardly deserving of accolades. Archer looked mortal in 2016 and they have already dealt Moore and Smyly. In their top 5, they are counting on Alex Cobb coming back after basically missing two seasons, and he is a free agent after 2017. Plus Matt Andriese who looks more like a swingman. They also have a bunch of controlled infielders too: Longoria, Brad Miller, and Matt Duffy in MLB, and top prospect Adames ticketed for AAA. Not to mention former prospects Nick Franklin and Tim Beckham lurking (both topped 100 OPS+ in ~200 MLB PA last season). I could absolutely see that team being willing to move Forsythe for a SP prospect like De Leon, or perhaps even less than that. (Given their financials, they'd also benefit more than most clubs from getting Forsythe's salary off the books.)
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Distributed to the correct franchises, that could be a solid return for Minnesota sports!
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For those wondering, here is Dave's Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/DozierLADtrade
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ESPN: Dozier Ranked 9th-Best 2B in Baseball
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Interesting that the top 2 in NL batting average in 2016 were second baseman, and 3 of the top 5 with Segura. 2 of the top 3 in the AL too. -
Not to sidetrack the thread further, but part of a GM's job (maybe a huge part) is knowing who to listen to within the organization, and when to listen to them. Smith wasn't good at that, apparently.
