Otto von Ballpark

Those were past rates that you were "grandfathered" into. From the current Netflix Plans and Pricing page: These prices apply to new members and will gradually take effect for all current members. Current members will receive an email notification 30 days before their price changes, unless they change their plan. Basic Standard Premium Monthly cost* (United States Dollar) $9.99 $15.49 $19.99

I wasn't suggesting that a lot of people binge-watch two seasons of something every month! But for most people, binge-watching the one or two shows you want to watch is the best way to get value out of a service like Netflix, rather than subscribing indefinitely. (Which is why some services are moving back to weekly releases of new episodes.) And having a source to pseudo-binge-watch sports (watch them a few times a week) for $20 could likewise be more economical than paying for it in a more expensive TV bundle.

There is a $10 Netflix plan, but it is limited to 480p resolution (standard definition). It's probably the equivalent of a phone-only streaming service, since the picture quality suffers so much on larger screens. The potential cost savings in cord-cutting was always about unbundling -- you wouldn't need to spend $100 on cable if all you wanted to watch (or all you had time to watch) in a given month was on just a few networks.

No, this doesn’t affect cable viewers. It is an alternative service for people who want BSN without getting cable.

The early streaming TV providers were not sustainably priced -- they were losing money trying to gain subscribers/market share. Those prices shouldn't be used as a barometer for current prices any more than Columbia House's 12 CDs for a penny. Best case going forward, you're probably looking at a $65+ package like YouTube TV.

But cable never gave us the option pay as little as $20/month and still get FSN. On cable, we were almost certainly paying more than $20 towards carriage fees of channels we rarely if ever watched, just for the privilege of paying for FSN too. As far as I know, unless the existing TV deals specifically included direct local streaming rights, they are not included. So teams have to negotiate for those separately (or renegotiate their TV deals). FWIW, the MLB teams on Bally networks collectively seem to be taking a harder stance on this than the NBA/NHL teams. I don't know if MLB will come up with a meaningful alternative, though.

I wish they were still on Hulu or YouTube TV for the benefit of you and others who prefer it, but I wouldn't describe that $65+/month package as particularly cheap or accessible. And the games are a lot of content. Even if you only watch 1/3 of Twins game action (or 1/3 of Wolves/Wild), you'd probably be around 20 hours a month. That's about the same as binge-watching two whole seasons in a month on Netflix.

To my knowledge, the Minnesota RSN has never been available to consumers at a lower cost than this.

Great article. I used to love watching games on MLBTV with just the ballpark audio track (no commentary) -- I'd probably enjoy that even more now that I know about the audio engineers behind it. Unfortunately MLBTV stopped offering that audio option in 2020 and have not brought it back (league wide, so it's not just a Twins/Bally/Target Field thing). I know MLBTV is a separate entity, but since they were using his audio feed, I wonder if Tveitbakk has any special insight about that decision.

Winder is still on the AAA injured list — hasn’t pitched anywhere in over a month now.

I think you could have an aggressive strategy to pull Bundy there -- but not after a game where you aggressively pulled Mahle too. An extra inning from Mahle on Friday day could have saved Fulmer for Saturday or prevented Durán and López from pitching back-to-back nights. Either of those advantages could have ultimately won the game for us Saturday, without risking the game Friday.

Not all cleanup hitters are equal. Outside of April/May 2022, Taylor Ward is a thoroughly average or below average MLB hitter. If it's too risky to let Pagán face Ward in that situation, perhaps the questionable choice is using Pagán rather than forgoing another intentional walk.

Ironically, you started this line of inquiry with the presumption that "analytics" must be to blame somehow, but you're actually advocating a strict analytical approach: look at a chart of average outcomes to determine your strategy. But teams are using that chart *plus* the circumstances of the actual situation to inform their decision (because no players are perfectly average, they all have different tendencies, etc.). We may not agree with all of their decisions, and they won't work out every time, but let's not pretend that your strict analytical approach would work better every time either.

That was the answer you presupposed when you asked your question, not the answer you were given. The intentional walk is still very much an available strategy — but it is situation-dependent. You still need to figure out the best way to get 3 outs too, and sometimes that may mean pitching to guys like Jake Cave or Tim Beckham rather than setting up force plays.

It never rains in sunny California, but the Twins' fall from first has left the TD forums wondering, are (Sonny) Gray skies going to clear up? Community members face the choice of putting on a happy face, or the gloomy mask of tragedy. Either way, almost two months of regular season baseball remains to be played in a close division race, so it's hardly "Bye Bye, Birdie" for baseball talk. @killebrewlover serenades us with that old meteorologist's torch song, This season's forecast. Darkening clouds. Stormy weather ahead. "Don't know why there's no sun up in the sky, stormy weather / Since my team and first place ain't together, keeps raining all of the time..." @strumdatjag observes the quiet end of a Twins career in Crickets for Sano. Or perhaps, like Mulan, these are good-luck crickets, and Miguel can return for the Twins postseason run he's been destined to lead since 2009? The Twins have previously benefitted from piranhas and goats -- could an insect be next? Not all is negative: @PseudoSABR shares a FanGraphs article that suggests we received excellent value for What the Twins gave up in terms of prospects at the deadline. Mahle, Fulmer, López, and even Sandy León have already contributed to Twins victories. In fact, León's nickname is apparently "Noah" -- could he help the Twins survive this storm? @bwillly suggests a potential new role for an under-the-radar Twins contributor: Could Smeltzer be a long reliever? Devin is still starting for St. Paul, but it's only a matter of time before the Twins need his innings again, either in the rotation or the bullpen. In the minor league forum, @ScottyB kicked off a discussion of This Winter’s Rule 5 Draft. Which players on the farm have earned a 40-man spot after the season? Could any of them help even sooner, as major league reinforcements for the Twins stretch drive? Lastly, when I find myself in times of Twins trouble, the Other Baseball forum can be a source of levity; but alas, not today. @Steve71 looks around the league and concludes that MLB is Broken. But other than that, how was the pennant race, Mrs. Lincoln? Whether you're feeling cross and bitterish, or thinking of banana split and licorice, share it in the forums! View full article

Aren't you the one assuming that he was going to be out? Merrifield is not putting all his eggs in that basket if he believes he has a chance to be safe. He obviously felt he had a chance to be safe when he broke from third and nothing he would have seen on his way to the plate would have told him he had no chance -- he knew it would be close, but he'd have a chance. His awareness of the challenge was just a fallback option, in case he wasn't called safe. If he tries a fancier indirect slide, not only does that fallback option likely disappear, but the slide will also take longer as he'd have to move out of his direct path from third. So the challenge fallback wasn't the only thing that kept him on that slide path.

I have not seen Merrifield say that he knew he was going to be out before sliding. How could he? He couldn’t see the throw — but he knew it could be close because it was a shallow fly. He also knew how Sánchez normally sets up on such plays, and saw him do it again early in this play — and he realized that sliding straight in would give him the option to appeal if he was out. (Of course, a straight line is also the shortest path on a tag play from third too, as opposed to other plays where the runner is rounding the bag.) Merrifield quotes are here: https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/use-of-controversial-slide-rule-inspires-heated-takes-from-blue-jays-twins/sn-amp/

Advance the video a few more frames, and you will see that the tag isn’t applied until Merrifield’s foot is pushing into Sánchez’s leg (which is on home plate). What’s the significance of the throw beating the runner if the tag doesn’t (without an assist from the leg)? I know the plate blocking rule has an exception for a throw “clearly” beating the runner, but I don’t think this is what they had in mind (where the throw beats him but the tag is very close, at best). I think that exception means the catcher can be set up in a blocking position as long as he receives the throw when the runner is only halfway home or whatever. This is too close for a “clearly” exception to be applied. For the record, I think it was a pretty good throw!

Basically, it seems to come down to, the catcher's body shouldn't prevent the runner from touching the plate before the tag on a close play. If the throw had come just a hair sooner, that might have been enough for the tag (not just the throw) to beat the runner without the aid of Sánchez's leg, and we'd get the benefit of the doubt from our replay overlords. Alternatively, if Sánchez hadn't initially set up to receive the throw in foul territory, Merrifield probably takes a different slide path, or at least his chosen slide path couldn't be blamed on Sánchez blocking before he had the ball?

If not for Sánchez's leg, Merrifield would have touched the plate safely before he could be tagged out. That's not really "beating the runner", is it? Or if it is, it seems akin to a high/wide throw to first "beating the runner" but requiring the first baseman to leave the bag to catch it, allowing the runner to reach safely.

The Pirates/Orioles yesterday had an out call overturned, just like the Twins call: Video: Greg Allen safe after challenge Unless you are referring to a different play?

“Almost automatic out” Luis Arraez went 3-for-5 in the very next game. So do you have any predictive power about these “moments”, or do you just learn about them after they’ve started or ended? And Tim Beckham’s “hot bat from St. Paul” was 2-for-13 with 5 Ks, and Cave’s hot bat actually struck out. Was that a triumph of “moment” or “reputation”? Look, the Jays were likely to lose just like every other team heading into the bottom of the 10th tied. There is no managerial malpractice in pitching to Cave or Beckham in that situation.

It is not taboo. There have been 80 intentional walks in MLB extra innings this year, at ten times the frequency of the next highest inning. It’s just not a strategy chosen in every game. I don’t think you are considering strikeouts enough here. Strikeouts are extremely common in the modern game, much more than double plays. And strikeouts rarely allow base runners to advance and virtually never allow the batter to reach. On average, Jake Cave strikes out in a third of his plate appearances, with Tim Beckham not far behind — and Jordan Romano strikes out more batters than an average pitcher. There is a huge cost to passing up those opportunities hoping for a much rarer double play. And the Jays strategy did not require perfect execution to work, as you claim. Batters fail to reach base on a strikeout, what, 99.9% of the time? That was a massive fluke. Judging the soundness of their strategy on that outcome is like judging the soundness of an intentional walk based on the pitcher committing a balk right after it. Once a fluke event like that happened, they were going to be between a rock and a hard place regardless of their strategy choice.

FanGraphs has it: FanGraphs Splits Leaderboard, Extra Innings Only