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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rangers fall squarely into the "committed" group, with the Odor extension.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Love the "poor man's Rich Hill" description, and I love this move.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Heston has an option, so probably AAA (taking Wheeler's place?).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    How is it not possible? The job involves zero private interaction with minors. Practically zero interaction with minors, period, if he doesn't do autographs.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    When we say an Archer package would have to include Berrios or Sano, that means the Twins and Rays won't be talking about Archer. Not that we expect those proposals to be made. The Rays won't call the Twins asking for Sano, but likewise the Twins aren't going to call about Archer if all we are prepared to offer is a pile of underperformers and fringe top 100 prospects.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we all have plenty of compassion for the victim. I certainly would never describe it as a "stupid mistake." That compassion, though, is not mutually exclusive from wondering what good it does to restrict his education and employment opportunities today. If there is any evidence that he or his family has shown a lack of compassion or responsibility toward the victim or her family since the incident, perhaps we could judge the penalty was too light and he shouldn't have this much freedom today, but I don't think any of us have that kind of information, right now. I understand not rooting for the guy, but I think apathy might be the more appropriate reaction than wanting to see him kicked off his team or get effectively blacklisted from pro ball. (Barring further info, of course. Right now all we know is that it happened, he admitted it, and he has accepted and satisfied the terms of his legal punishment for ~5 years.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    If they have small children, probably none, but I don't think living with a host family is a requirement of the job. Players also live in apartments, motels, etc.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not even sure that would work. Archer would command at least one elite prospect, plus a few more strong pieces. Look at the return for Sale this past winter. Nick Gordon is the closest thing we have but I'm not sure he's quite elite. Even if he was, our next best guy is Gonsalves, who was only a fringe top 100 guy preseason. Guys scuffling in MLB like Polanco and Rosario aren't going to move the needle in a trade like this. Honestly it would probably take Berrios plus Gordon plus Gonsalves plus another piece, if it was even possible at all.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Eades is still pretty iffy, but if he does emerge as something here in 2017, he's another guy who could need 40-man protection this winter. (He was already eligible for Rule 5 last winter, like Slegers.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a pretty specific crime, though, for which he's received counseling and of which his employers (now) and law enforcement are fully aware. He's not working with children at Oregon State, nor would he be in professional baseball. I'm glad I don't have to root for him on my team, but the only reason this will be an issue is if people protest the school or his eventual pro teams. And I'm not really sure what basis people would have to protest them. Caution, discomfort, sure. But protest? I don't know. If the guy is not around kids and is keeping up with his legal responsibilities, I'm not sure it's productive to protest his school and career choices going forward.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Archer is on one of the team-friendliest contracts in MLB, with potential team control through 2021. Tampa's top prospect is a SS too (Willy Adames, ranked 10-21 in all of MLB on various lists preseason). Not that an offer of Polanco and Jay would get you anywhere, even if the above facts weren't true.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To play devil's advocate: should this guy never be allowed to play anywhere again? To go to school anywhere? To pursue a career? And if he's still not allowed now, 5 years after the incident, then when?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, here's a little more data for you. "Jose De Leon Diagnosed With Mild Lat Strain" http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/jose-de-leon-diagnosed-mild-lat-strain/#GYvHQzqF6OYQ9Vy1.97
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    There's a thread for that! http://twinsdaily.com/topic/25594-hicks-for-murphy-trade-14-months-later/
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, WAR per season is exactly how they define the list, right in the intro. It's not like they are purporting to consider other factors. If Mauer's career had ended after 2013, he would have ranked 3rd in bWAR per season, behind A-Rod and Chipper. A simple refinement for the Molitor/Yount/Jackson problem would be to consider active players separate from retired ones, since the active guys haven't had a decline phase yet.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Plus Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart, and Slegers (who was actually eligible last winter)... Turley, Bard, and Van Steensel in a bit more of the "wild card" category... On the hitter side, there's not as much, but we do have Jermaine Palacios, Luis Arraez, and Lewin Diaz facing Rule 5 eligibility this winter, it appears. Looking at the current 40-man, I see about 9-10 spots which could open up... although 1-2 will go to May and O'Rourke, and a few of those will probably require MLB contract replacements (Belisle, Breslow, Santiago, etc.). Very hard to see Dereck Rodriguez claiming a spot, at this point.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier's career mark is a 107 OPS+. Rosario put up a 91 last year. Their 2017 performances are pretty much in line with my preseason expectations. Plus or minus ~5 OPS+/wRC+ points isn't that big of a deal. Buxton I'll grant is under-performing most preseason expectations -- his 2016 power surge up to a 90 OPS+ / 86 wRC+ seems so long ago now! Although he was known to be a bit of a wildcard.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    But, the rest of the league pretty much saw the same regression coming. It wasn't exactly hard to see!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Here is 2017 second base offensive performance so far, by team: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=37&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d Twins are 16th, and virtually every team notably below us is either a non-contender or already set/committed at the position. Like last winter, the most notable exception is probably the Angels, but they don't really have the assets to make a trade worthwhile for us, even if they wanted to. Dozier's blockbuster trade market has pretty much always hinged on the belief that he could be a ~130 wRC+ hitter going forward. No one was really believing that last winter, and obviously even fewer would believe it now.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't disagree with your conclusion, just because there's not a great market for Dozier or Santana right now, but on what planet is Mauer under-performing offensively? He's got a 108 wRC+, his highest mark in 4 years. And basically every other guy you list is within a rounding error of their 2016 marks (or career marks, in Dozier's case).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    This is his 4th season pitching, and his results have been pretty modest. Not only is he old, but don't forget that the FSL is a pitcher's league too -- Rodriguez is actually allowing HR at a higher rate than his league and his teammates. His FIP is basically league average too. If they want to challenge him with a promotion before he becomes a minor league free agent, that's fine, but at this point, he's got to be a long shot for 40-man consideration.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Robbie Ray is basically a co-ace on the NL wild card leader at the moment. 25 years old, making league minimum, controlled for 3 seasons after this one. They're not trading him right now. Heck, the idea that the Diamondbacks have a hole at second base seems erroneous too. Brandon Drury has a 98 wRC+ there, after a 102 last year, virtually the same as Dozier's 97 this season and 106 career. Drury is posting close to average defensive metrics this season too, his first year committed full-time to the position. Furthermore, here are the 2017 wRC+ marks for the other 3 middle infielders on the Diamondbacks roster: 107, 99, and 93. Very doubtful they see a need to pay a high price for Dozier right now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    He has seemed to plateau around a .550 OPS lately, with a 34% K rate and little or no power. Wouldn't be surprising if the walk rate starts to dip again.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It's less about Dozier and more about the second base position around the league, which hasn't really changed in the last 6 months.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Pedroia has been hurt but has a 100 OPS+ after last year's 116 and is set to return this weekend. Kipnis' season numbers are down, but he missed spring training and started late. He has a .859 OPS over the last month or so, I doubt the Indians are worried about the position. Not sure the 2B market has changed all that much in the last few months, likely not in Dozier's favor anyway when you factor in his solid but unspectacular 2017 performance.
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