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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    ALDS Rosters and former Twins: White Sox: Lance Lynn, Liam Hendriks Astros: Jason Castro, Ryan Pressly Red Sox: Hansel Robles, Martín Pérez, Danny Santana Rays: Nelson Cruz, Matt Wisler, JT Chargois
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Rangers were 3rd in waiver priority. So Baltimore and Arizona each passed on making a claim for Colina.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I found a few references to "debridement" elbow procedures for other pitchers (and perhaps more have had similar operations without that specific term being used?). Colina's lack of recovery in 2021 and the "additional procedure" suggests his may have been more serious that others, though. https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/09/12/yu-darvish-undergoes-minor-elbow-surgery-in-dallas/
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    As Brock alluded to, we could have kept him on the 60-day IL until the 5th day after the end of the World Series (early November). But at that point, we'd have to activate him and all the other 60-day IL guys without the roster going over 40 players. Now the Rangers will have to make that decision on him. The 60-day IL returns as players report to spring training -- Pineda went on that list on Feb. 17 during his TJ recovery season. But there's about 3.5 months in the offseason where the 40-man roster is a hard limit of 40.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Might be more than a few days, as Colina is still on the 60-day IL so he doesn't count against the Rangers 40-man. The Rangers will have to activate him by the 5th day after the conclusion of the World Series.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    At least Brooks Raley is almost an old friend (8 games for Rochester in 2014).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, I had to look it up: B-Ref says Chris Taylor's nickname is "CT3" which would logically imply the existence of a CT1 and a CT2, right? Alas, Taylor's uniform number for the Dodgers is 3. (And that number is retired by the Twins already -- I wonder how much Taylor's nickname and Twitter handle are worth to him?) Edit: Instagram handle, not Twitter.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it's ridiculous. What are the alternatives? 1. Get rid of the wild card game, go back to the old single wild card system 2. Disregard divisions entirely, and just seed based on league standings 3. Expand the WC game to a best-of-3 round #1 or #2 would mean the Giants-Dodgers division race the last couple months would have been largely meaningless. They played some great games over that time and it was fun to follow. On #3, I like the one-game WC format. It gives us tiebreaker-like excitement every year, and only at the expense of non-division winners. Upping it to a 3 game series basically makes it another playoff round, reducing excitement and keeping the division winning teams inactive for too long, in my opinion.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought there would at least be a minor leaguer somewhere also named "Chris Taylor", but a quick search of B-Ref says no, he's the only one! https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?search=chris taylor
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This sounds more like a gripe with MLB's system overall, than any specific issue with the Rays. Per the April 2019 Forbes list, the Rays had $40 mil less revenue than the Twins in 2018. The average MLB team made $39.6 mil in operating income in 2018; median team, $32 mil. The Rays made $27 mil. (Forbes says these figures reflect revenue sharing and stadium debt, as well as local, broadcast, and postseason revenue. No BAMTech payments but those are the same for all 30 teams.) Hard to get a handle on the latest Forbes numbers due to the pandemic -- the Rays new broadcast deal (with Bally/Sinclair, ugh) has kicked in since then, but every team was at an operating loss. FWIW, the Twins apparently gained 10% in franchise value since 2018, while the Rays and their new broadcast deal only gained 0.5% -- still 2nd to last in MLB, 20% less than the modest Twins value (to say nothing of the bigger dogs). From a business standpoint, I'm not sure the Rays are really operating any differently than other MLB teams. Would I like to see them, and other low payroll teams, spend more? Sure. But under the current system, it doesn't always make much sense. A higher minimum would be good, and perhaps a salary floor that functions like the NHL's would be an interesting addition -- teams below the floor have to cut prorated checks to all of its players to make up the difference.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure this is a fair characterization of all of those deals. Archer was still relatively cheap, and in fact the Rays went out and paid Charlie Morton even more right after the trade. The issue was Archer's middling performance and the haul the Rays were able to get in return (most famously Glasnow and Meadows, and now even Baz is their ALDS Game 2 starter!). The Rays are definitely cost-conscious but this doesn't strike me as a move primarily motivated by money. We pat the Twins on the back for trading Eric Milton in 2003, right? They saved some cash but it was a good baseball move too. Snell is a bit less clear -- it's not the historic fleecing of the Archer deal -- but it fits a similar pattern. He had a definite fall-off after his 2018 Cy Young season (on which his extension was based), and that fall-off has accelerated this season, while Patino and Mejia are already contributing for the Rays and may get even better. Odorizzi looks more like a cost move, although not particularly egregious. Palacios obviously didn't work out, but the baseball motivation seems comparable to the Twins nontendering Plouffe, just doing it a year early and getting a prospect in return.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    One illustration of Rays disadvantages: 2008 Rays had their first good season, and made it all the way to the World Series. 2009 attendance? 1.8 million fans, same as 2008 and basically their peak as a franchise after their expansion season. They hadn't coldly jettisoned anyone by that point -- it's just a functional limitation of their park and market, I think. By comparison, the Metrodome Twins drew 2-3 mil annually in the 1987-1993 period, drew 1.7 mil in their revival of 2001 even though they fizzled out in August, and then out-drew the 2009 Rays peak every year from 2002 onward.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure it's fair to assemble a list of "identifiable Twins" from a 10 season run of contention, and expect the Rays to match it in only their current 4 year run. What specifically do you think Neander should have done differently since 2015?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The modern ballpark and cable TV booms hadn't yet thrown off the economics of the game at the time the Puckett deal was signed in the early 1990s (and of course the Twins were boosted by two recent titles too). Who knows, if Calvin Griffith had moved the Twins to Tampa in the 1980s, the "Rays" could have signed those deals in the early 1990s instead of the Twins. FWIW, the Rays effectively gave Longoria a $130 mil extension in 2012, which I think would have been top 20 all-time in total money at the time. By comparison, the Morris deal was a one-year deal for $3 mil with two player option years at $2 mil each (I'd guess we call it 3/7 with out-opts today). This contemporary report describes Morris and Bruce Hurst as "the 12th and 13th $3-million pitchers" -- maybe more comparable to the Charlie Morton deal than to the Longoria one? https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-02-06-sp-584-story.html
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, timeline issues: the Twins didn't extend any of Morneau, Cuddyer, Nathan, or Mauer until after Target Field funding was already approved in 2006. Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan all got deals after the Target Field groundbreaking in late 2007, and of course the only "mega-deal" was Mauer's second extension in 2010, just weeks before Target Field opened. (Complicating factor: Mauer was a hometown superstar, something the Rays haven't yet had?) In fact, from a team payroll and revenue perspective, baseball's economics didn't get *really* out of whack until the early 1990's, with the new ballpark boom and cable TV rights boom. So the handicapped "Metrodome Twins" really only existed for about 15 years, between the 1991 champs and breaking ground on Target Field. And even then, we had the "head start" of two titles and future Hall of Famer Puckett in a long-term deal going into the lean years. By comparison, the Rays have been in the Trop -- an accident of the 1980s, not unlike the Metrodome -- for 23 years, the first 10 as a hopeless expansion team, all during the modern ballpark/cable boom and still without a new ballpark on the horizon. (To be fair, the modern Rays benefit from the luxury tax threshold and draft/international spending limits, relative to the 2000s Twins, although how much is up for debate -- there are still massive team revenue disparities.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there's some home team bias at play in this analysis: in addition to Longoria and Kiermaier, Carl Crawford was a Ray for 2 years past free agency, and Ben Zobrist for 1 year (was signed for a second year beyond FA, but was traded before his age-34 season). I think of BJ Upton as a "very good Rays player" too, as much as Cuddyer as a "very good Twins player" -- is it the Rays fault that Upton was good enough to call up at age 19 and wanted to hit free agency as soon as he was eligible? And they traded Longoria because he had just turned 32 and his performance (99 OPS+ in his last year as a Ray) didn't justify his remaining obligations.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    So he'd be a bigger supporter of the Rays now if they had declined to trade guys like Snell, Archer, Garza, and Huff? I always thought the A's and Marlins were more ruthless about this sort of thing. And of course there are a few franchise that have spent more than the Rays, but it's not clear whether that extra spending is the result of a greater commitment or just inefficient spending and poor baseball decision-making.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Does that describe the pre-Target Field Twins pretty well too?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Evidence suggests that Yankees radio was calling a game from an alternate reality:
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins postseason legend Phil Nevin seemed to squander some of that momentum, as the Yankees 3B coach responsible for this send: Red Sox nab Judge at the dish
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Any kind of hindsight exercise like this is challenging, especially in the face of our long postseason losing streak, which invites a sort of "transactional nihilism" where nothing we do ultimately seems to matter. But having Pressly in 2019 may have changed our trade deadline strategy (from Romo/Dyson), which could have had some October implications. Reminds me of 2010 -- putting a healthy Joe Nathan on our playoff roster wouldn't have changed the outcome of the series by itself, but if we then used Ramos to acquire someone other than Capps, it gets a little more complicated.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That was Alcala's service time entering the 2021 season. He collected another full season this year, so he's up to 2 years and 5 days now. That means 4 more seasons of control (2022-2025).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Jax was available in the last two Rule 5 drafts, at age 25 and 26, with upper minors experience, and no team selected him. I don't know that he has "the makings of a solid reliever" any more than most arms in the upper minors. That said, there probably isn't an urgent need to remove him from the 40-man either.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Tuesday October 5 AL Wild Card Yankees at Red Sox 7:08 PM CDT TV: ESPN (or MLB.TV for international viewers) Yankees roster / Red Sox roster - Hansel Robles is the only ex-Twin Fangraphs odds: Yankees 59.5%, Boston 40.5% 538 odds: Yankees 53%, Boston 47%
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How about ??
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