Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I think non-elite pitching prospects in general are pretty immune to service time considerations. Just too many other factors in their health and development.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that too! Kinda like Austin Jackson's catch over the Fenway wall a few weeks back. Note that it was "junior league" (max age 15). He's probably a little taller than most standard "little leaguers" (max age 12). Still impressive, of course!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's quite possible they were keeping him in AA for non-critical reasons because they didn't expect to be in contention at this late point in the season. The same thing that drove their selling at the deadline, last offseason's bullpen plans, etc. Could have been non-critical refinements, waiting until they could provide Chattanooga with strong reinforcements (i.e. Littell and Thorpe?), sorting through AAA SP options, etc. And while 10 starts vs 3 might not make a huge difference to you, I was responding to a poster who suggested that 3 was too few. And I think if you project a guy as a possible contributor, you should aim for more than 3 by the time you may need him to step in. Especially for non-elite guys. Duffey stepped into the rotation after ~12 AAA starts in 2015. I would guess there would have been more hesitation about making that move if he had only 3 AAA starts at the time (after a solid debut, Duffey's next 3 AAA starts were a little shaky). Berrios was an option that August too, and he finished 2015 with 12 AAA starts. I suspect he would have been considered even less with only 3 AAA starts, although ultimately his innings limit and non-40-man status (and maybe Duffey's success) prevailed in that decision anyway. Hard to tell how a guy is going to respond in just 3 starts.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I wouldn't call them incompetent over it; I don't think Gonsalves is any great savior either. But to be fair, he only has "a few starts at AAA" because of other front office decisions. Not sure if he needed 28 starts at AA. Promote him after 8 starts at AA this year, and he'd have 10 under his belt at AAA already. Not that we'd necessarily count on him this last month, but he could have been an option.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Perkins is actually out of options, he used his last one in 2010. He would have to clear waivers and be outrighted off the 40-man roster to be sent to the minor leagues right now. Or released and re-signed to a minor league deal, which could be the offsets on version...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Tovar and Gladden were apparently runner ups to Cuddyer this year. And Jerry Bell was runner up to MacPhail...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor already said yesterday that Gibson will be starting Tuesday. They will need another starter for next Saturday, and assuming they don't want Gee or Melville, that could go to Slegers.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not using "one tiny bit of information" here. I have considered not only Bosher's platoon splits, but also his overall quality (he's a fringe MLBer), the batter's platoon splits (neutral career), the size and composition of the Twins pen, how rested the pen was, the likelihood of a game the next day, etc. Throw in that we had 3 offensive innings left, at home, Salazar was dominating but probably only had 1 inning left, and Andrew Miller was still on the DL which meant their pen wasn't at full strength. And that we already cut Busenitz's appearance somewhat short, so we already invested something in this game. Even if we lost, the outcome of that PA could have had more informational value too -- can a RHP do the job? That seems like a more valuable question to work toward answering than, can Boshers wriggle out of his own jam that I would never trust him to do in a more important game anyway? A lot of factors informed my conclusion that our win probability at that point wasn't worth risking to squeeze one out from Buddy Boshers. Feel free to disagree, but please don't mischaracterize my argument and evidence.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the announcement/transaction language is anything official. And language aside, I don't know what there is to be confused about. Slegers wasn't on the 40-man, and now he is. He was the 26th man for one game, and now he is back in AAA on optional assignment. All of the normal requirements apply to the 26th man as any other player recalled, except the 10 day minimum in AAA before/after a recall. I suspect that, because there was already an open 40-man spot for him and no one had to be removed, the Twins just mistakenly referred to it a "recall" rather than a 40-man add (purchased/selected).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, Slegers was optioned back. If he spends less than 20 days on optional assignment, though, he won't burn an option year. So he could get recalled September 6th and not burn an option year, for example.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no such thing as guaranteed results. Doesn't mean you ignore the process. And if Pressly came in and gave up a HR to Jackson in the game Tuesday instead of Boshers, then maybe Molitor tries a different RHP in the Thursday game with better results.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, no, you were looking at the wrong plate appearance. 0.33 was 2 outs, nobody on. When Boshers was allowed to face Jackson with 2 on, that was 1.30 leverage. That's not low, it's above average, fairly close to the average game entering leverage index of Pressly, Duffey, and Belisle.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. It was 21% when Molitor bothered to go for the platoon match up with 2 outs and nobody on. Is that something you do in "low leverage"? Tigers had basically the same ~20% chance of winning at the end of their 8th and start of their 9th down 1 run last Saturday. At that point, you are a "bloop and a blast" from a tie or a win. Note the Tigers used their best reliever to pitch the 9th to preserve that ~20% win probability, clearly not playing it like it was low leverage. Low leverage would be when the Tigers were down 4 earlier in that game, or the Twins were down 5 after the Jackson HR Tuesday, about a 4% chance of winning. You hope for a comeback at that point, but there is not much you can do. Still plenty you can do around 20%, though. If you look around the league, I doubt you will see a lot of strategic priorities changing just because of ~20% win probability. You don't have to go all "elimination game" in your reliever usage, but you sure as heck don't shrug and leave your scuffling LOOGY out to dry vs RHB with a rested pen in reserve.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Gonsalves has to be added by November anyway, so if they can make room for him now, by moving Santiago to the 60-day DL or outrighting Recker or DFA'ing Boshers or whatever -- there is no real cost to promoting Gonsalves this season. If they have an extra spot, they could certainly add Park back. Worst case, he doesn't show anything and we can outright him off the roster again after the season. I'm not sure if they'll bother, although Grossman being out presents a bit of an opportunity. I agree Turley should get a look, but probably in a pen role at this point. Maybe if we fall further out of the race, he could try starting again.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    For a manager concerned about stretching his bullpen, there does seem to be a cost to this right now: http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/249004196/twins-glen-perkins-returns-from-disabled-list/
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It's interesting. Next off day isn't until Monday August 28, which would also be the first day Gibson would be eligible to return if we optioned him today. Before then, they will need Gibson/Slegers on Tuesday and again on Sunday August 27., They'll also need 2 starters for Monday's doubleheader, and then one of those guys for Saturday August 26 too. (In theory Enns could be eligible to return August 26 too, presuming they made his DL stint retroactive to August 16.) So optioning Gibson now would be committing to not only 2 more starts for Slegers, but also an extra start beyond the doubleheader for Gee or Gonsalves (or Enns). As much as I don't trust Gibson anymore, I'm not sure I see them doing that at this point, unfortunately.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    They will have a decision to make for Tuesday -- do they start Gibson or Slegers that day? If not Gibson, they might as well send him down now for an extra reliever / bench player in the meantime, and start his 10 day recall clock early just in case we need him back. Between Slegers and Gonsalves, they should be set for starters over the next 10 days.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I definitely see what you are saying here. But, we have a few optionable guys in the pen. We could even option a guy after Game 1 Monday and have another guy with the team ready to activate for Game 2 if we wanted (like we did with Boshers and Turley yesterday).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing Perkins is referring to his closer's job here, not his place on the roster. Remember 2015 when he was struggling late in the year but was still upset about relinquishing his closer's job? Glad he's come to terms with that now, but we're kind of beyond the closer vs setup guy debate here...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It's an interesting strategy, but I'm not sure the marginal gains from Vargas are worth it. Their OPS+ figures are virtually identical this season and for their careers. You'd also lose Vargas from pinch-hitting and deprive Castro of a chance to see the pitcher before his later plate appearances too. Also, if you don't push the rest of the lineup down a spot, Castro might come up in an unusual position, and if you do push the rest of the lineup down a spot, you are potentially losing a PA for a guy like Sano by inserting a new guy at the top. If Vargas is good enough for this to benefit us, he'd be good enough to start at DH or 1B, probably.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Again: the next day's game was fairly unlikely. (I should know, I was hoping to attend Wednesday night, so I was following the weather pretty closely, and there was a major storm rolling in.) And even with the uncertainty inherent in any weather forecast, the rest of the 8 MAN pen was completely rested. following the off day on Monday. Keeping Busenitz available was hardly necessary. Even so, whether Busenitz gets 5 or 6 outs on Tuesday, or throws 21 or ~26 pitches, doesn't seem like a particularly meaningful distinction to that end anyway. Busenitz has only thrown on consecutive days once all season, and it was after only 15 pitches the day before. And that was in a stretch where the Twins had 21 consecutive days without a day off. Half of Busenitz's MLB appearances this season have seen him throw more than the 21 pitches he threw Tuesday. When Molitor pulled Busenitz, it was pretty clear he was playing matchups to keep the Tuesday game close, not trying to stretch his pen. And two batters latter, it was pretty clear he abandoned matchups, even though the game was still just as close. I don't think the pen options were good enough to warrant that sudden change in strategy.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Everybody and his dog knew the game on Wednesday was a likely postponement. And if you are squeezing outs from RPs, why pull Busenitz with 2 outs and nobody on? Let him get out of the inning and then see what our bats can do to inform your next pitching move. Busenitz was already pretty much unavailable for Wednesday anyway. And the limited deck of options actually means you have less to gain from saving marginal pitchers for later. Was Pressly really going to be any better or more reliable with 2-3 days rest? All of these guys are optionable too if you really need a fresh arm. It obviously isn't what cost us the game Tuesday, but it is the kind of move sequence I just don't get with Molitor.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    30 days, although it can be reset if necessary. (For example, the Twins won't be forced to activate Santiago soon.) A pitcher's velocity still not recovering would probably be a valid reason. I guess it is better than August/September 2015, when Perkins didn't even go on the DL or a rehab assignment...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    So the standard you are applying here is that a move has to have a virtual 100% success rate for a manager to be criticized for not making it? I don't get it. Everybody here is fine with bringing in Boshers to face the LHB, even though it has far less than 100% success rate. Why do we suddenly get so stringent when analyzing the follow up move? It was the 7th inning. We needed 7 more outs, win or lose. Boshers was never likely to finish the game. He hasn't gotten 7 outs in a game since his season debut, when he came in during the 3rd inning of a 14-3 loss to Detroit. He hasn't faced 9+ batters in a season except when he came in during the FIRST inning of a 9-0 loss to the White Sox. Molitor already decided to pull Busenitz with 2 out and nobody on to play matchups, and nothing had really changed with our win expectancy since then, but the leverage had gone way up. Molitor was playing matchups, until suddenly, he wasn't? I don't fault Molitor based on the results so much as the internal inconsistencies of his logic.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Which is the also the chance for Minnesota to lose the game, which is what we should be trying to avoid. By WPA, we had a 19% chance to win the game when Jackson was coming up. Not great, but not the kind of chance you disregard in the opening game of a 3 game home series versus your division rival in a pennant race. Especially not in regard to bullpen decisions after an off day with a likely cancellation the next day too.
×
×
  • Create New...