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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    9th right now, but yeah, still close to the bottom 5. (The bottom 2-3 might be hard to catch)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that more of a credit for Wilson, or a demerit for Molitor?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    In that case, he should have brought in our designated "to hell with it" pitcher Belisle earlier.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Still, that doesn't mean you order that second intentional walk and leave Hildenberger out there that long.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Two of them were intentional walks, which now means zero pitches. So 24 pitches to 7 batters. I didn't see the inning, but I agree -- he let 3 runs score in a tie game, so we're now trailing by 3, and have nobody out with runners on second and third -- how do you order an intentional walk there, for another free baserunner? And leave the same pitcher in? And after a sac fly and another walk (non-intentional), still leave him in? It was like we gave up by leaving him in, but simultaneously tried to over-manage to keep the deficit at 3...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully he was breaking some bad news to Belisle instead.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    What if you think he would sign for 2/20 or something?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Jorge probably has a decent chance of clearing, given his recent health.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I assumed that would be Motter getting DFA'd for Polanco, but this DL move precludes that. I guess Bobby Wilson?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I read that Ervin is restarting his rehab assignment tomorrow (Saturday), so I expect he could still be in play for the August trade period.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Absolutely no way I would extend him right now. I am fairly confident we will see his offensive performance drift downward by the end of the season (his wRC+ has already fallen from 151 to 133 over the past 10 days), and the FA market was very reasonable last winter for this class of player. Even if you want him back, there is a real chance you could do it for $6-10 mil or something. Absolutely no need to guarantee him $27+ mil right now (which would also torpedo any trade value he might have next month). We have to let this play out.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think you can count on a better prospect than Mejia. That deal was generally considered an overpay at the time. Just like if you have a reliever better than Matt Capps, you can't expect a better return than Wilson Ramos. More so than FA contracts, trades are very much context-dependent. There may not be an aggressive 2016 Giants or 2010 Twins team in this market, looking for a rental infielder. Also note that Escobar is making about 3 times what Nunez made that season, and Nunez had an extra season of control. The 2017 Giants-Red Sox Nunez trade is probably worth looking at too. There Nunez brought back a recent 3rd round SP in high-A, ranked #18 in Boston's system, and a 17 year old lotto ticket pitcher.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Cozart had 16.6 career bWAR and was coming off a 5 bWAR season. Escobar has 6.3 career bWAR and is only on pace for 3.8. Also Cozart (for 3B) was likely considered an overpay the way the offseason developed.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I recommend using Fangraphs and selecting "NP" (non-pitchers) as the position for a better comparison. Although you have to export to a spreadsheet to do your own totals for multiple years.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Strikeouts are WAY up. Without a corresponding rise in BABIP, that's going to lower batting averages. (And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.) I think it's fair to be concerned about the rise in strikeouts.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Any increment that selects 1968 is going to be problematic, as that's the all-time low.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say Kepler is regressing, although I agree he's not getting better. His OPS+, wRC+, and WAR are virtually identical to what he produced in 2016-2017. He's thoroughly an average performer for the 3rd consecutive season, which is helping the MLB team a bit but not a lot. (The shape of his offense has changed a smidge this year -- walk rate up, K rate down, BABIP down -- but not enough to be particularly encouraging.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are interested in that, the Oregonian published a piece on its decision to publish the original story: https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/06/why_we_published_the_story_abo.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Judging from the rest of your post, I strongly disagree that you realize this. I am bowing out of this particular discussion, so please no need to reply further to me.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Morrison: 11% BB%, 20.5% K%, .153 ISO, .208 BABIP, 74 wRC+ Grossman: 10.9% BB%, 21.8% K%, .114 ISO, .288 BABIP, 81 wRC+ Grossman is only better (marginally) if you want to bet on those BABIPs. Morrison's is about .060 under his career average, and .087 under the league non-pitcher average this year. (Grossman's is also .028 under his career average, although only .007 under the league non-pitcher average this year.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it's pretty close. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/07/sports/luke-heimlich-sex-crime.html Say what you will about whether he should be in pro ball, but he probably should have said "No comment", refused the interview, or referred back to his statement from last year that he had "taken responsibility for my conduct when I was a teenager."
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Number of the beast! Maybe we can make some kind of "Damn Yankees" type deal? (And not the Ted Nugent one.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. 24th in MLB in OBP -- and 26th for non-pitchers.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If we had Ervin Santana, that pretty much would have bumped Romero, who's been passable. If you trust the ZiPS projection for Ervin, maybe a difference of 1.5 wins so far? Castro was replacement level before his injury. His replacements have been right around replacement level too. He was worth ~2 WAR last year, so maybe a win if you buy that as his true talent level? Hard to see too much tangible difference in intangibles yet either -- the pitching has improved overall, despite the absence of Ervin.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No effect. To the extent that players have attributed effects to the home run derby, remember these are the same players who believe certain necklaces help their performance, that bunting against the shift is wrong, that umpires are holding back their performance relative to their peers, etc. There's nothing they won't use as an excuse or explanation for normal statistical variance. After the all-star break in 2017, Sano was largely the same hitter he was in May and June of that year. The outlier is pretty much April, and pretty much in the power department. As they found ways to neutralize his power, the walks receded too.
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