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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    On an earlier thread, poster dbminn estimated Realmuto's net value over the next 2.5 seasons (performance minus salary) around $60 mil. Fangraphs came up with some prospect value estimates here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/ Virtually impossible to get a deal done without including an elite position player prospect (55+ FV), of which the Twins only have Lewis. You can try to pile up prospects from the next tier (45-50 FV), but MLB trades rarely work that way. Plus that level of prospect isn't that scarce of a commodity (there were 97 50 FV prospects in Fangraphs preseason lists), so virtually every team in baseball could build a package around 2-3 of them for the best catcher in the game if that was all it took. And in any case, the Marlins already have more 50 FV prospects (7) than any team in baseball, so they would stand to gain the least from adding more at that level. Maybe the Marlins don't get a better offer this month, but that doesn't mean they have to accept it. If the Lucroy trade is a guide, then equivalent offers will still be available to them this winter and next summer, at least.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton first went on the DL on April 18. Up to that point, Cave had only played 8 games in Rochester. He wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he had reached base 13 times in those 8 games, 7 hits including a HR and a double. He certainly wasn't slumping enough to make me want to see LaMarre or Grossman starting in the outfield every day.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Although if he signs for less than $50 mil, the compensation draft pick is between the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Actually just after the Competitive Balance Round B, from which we sold our 2017 pick with Hughes.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch! The article didn't mention that one specifically, but I did see it also contained a reference to "children", plural.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm honestly not sure why they ever went with LaMarre, once Buxton was out. The idea of either LaMarre or Grossman starting in the outfield every day was never tenable. Cave should have been up right away, he was already on the 40-man roster and had ample AAA experience.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You may be 12'6" but at least we can see eye to eye on this.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't even think it gets that far. Bieber is currently in their rotation, and performing well, and he's needed there for the foreseeable future. Most contenders don't want to subtract current MLB contributors in a midseason trade. Escobar isn't even a particularly strong fit for them -- he'd either have to play second base himself which he has rarely done for the Twins, or he'd require them moving Jose Ramirez back over to second base, and I'm not sure if they'd be willing to do that again now that Ramirez is a bonafide superstar. I think they'd rather look at better fits at second like Gennett, Lowrie, or Starlin Castro.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You're 12'6"? Wow!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it's disrespectful to suggest the team should have a say in Mauer's next contract.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Also, Plouffe and his wife just had their first child this past winter, so they probably still had some flexibility to move around this season. I imagine as the child grows, that will change. This was the first time in 7 years where he had to open the year in the minor leagues, so it's not like he's been barnstorming a lot. FWIW, this article mentions the date that his family moved with him to Lehigh Valley, and Plouffe has hit .273/.414/.598 for a 1.013 OPS in 169 PA since then (after starting the season .187/.287/.293 for a .581 OPS in his first 87 PA): http://www.mcall.com/sports/baseball/ironpigs/mc-spt-ironpigs-rochester-0523-story.html He might only be a Maikel Franco injury away from joining the Phillies, or maybe they would release him to pursue a similar opportunity elsewhere.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Honestly, in the modern game, you don't really have to limit his pitch counts or give him much extra rest to control his innings. A lot of guys are only averaging 5 IP per start anyway.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure I'd go so far to say Wells has been "dominant" at high A. 2.58 ERA is nice, but it's a pitcher's league -- minimum 40 IP (eliminating most relievers), Wells' ERA ranks 17th, and it's only a 12 team league. His K rate is right around league average. And he's not young for the league (almost 24), and at 6 foot 8 inches, with that downward plane -- you'd like to see him striking out more batters. A low BABIP is nice, but I'm not sure how projectable that is. Poppen, Stashak, and Vasquez have all been promoted already, with higher K rates. (Marzi strikes me as an org filler type, so I wouldn't be too concerned that he got promoted "ahead" of Wells.) I might promote Wells too, but he will have plenty of opportunity to rise quickly if he truly starts dominating and missing bats. He's not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2019 season.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't necessarily see a problem with that either, although the fact that they waited until after Odorizzi had a bad start to send down Romero suggests that maybe their priorities and reasoning weren't quite so clear as you claim.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I was thinking more giving him a break, like the Astros did with McCullers back in 2015. I wouldn't want to be pulling him at 60 pitches every game.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to revive this old discussion, but it also occurred to me the Angels did change GMs in the middle of the Trout era, firing Dipoto mid-2015 and hiring Billy Eppler from the Yankees after that season. Since then, I think they've been smarter, and while not all of their moves have worked out, they haven't been sacrificing too many long-term dollars or talent. They should have another chance to reload this winter. I agree the Angels overall franchise performance has to be considered a disappointment in the Trout era, but I think the current front office has been doing about the best they can given the limitations they inherited in the form of the Pujols deal, the Hamilton deal (which just came of the books last winter), various injuries, etc. That's the perspective I was taking.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Mariners are sure keeping up their end of the bargain, though. Up to +10 pythag and +8 BaseRuns now. Fangraphs has actually bumped up their playoff odds from 70% to 84% in the 2.5 weeks since this post. Their closest competitor is actually Oakland, at 6.5 games back (up slightly from 8 GB on June 20). Next is the Rays and Angels each at 11 GB now.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    We were slightly closer, and our playoff odds slightly better, at the time of his demotion. At the time, we were just a few days removed from being within 5 games of first place, with 25+% playoff odds (per Fangraphs "season to date stats" mode). Also, I'm not sure there wouldn't be benefit to stretching him through the end of the MLB season, if he is capable. If we shut him down before September again, I am sure we will hear about it next year as another reason to be cautious with him. Getting him accustomed to the longer MLB season might have as much verifiable benefit as keeping him on an innings limit, etc. Frankly I don't even care, I think they could have probably kept him on his regular MLB turn until it was time to shut him down.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be surprised to see Arraez, considering he just got promoted to AA. But he will be Rule 5 eligible this winter if we don't add him to the 40-man roster, so like Gordon, I suppose he could be in the mix if we have 40-man spots to play with. In that case, though, given that neither Gordon or Arraez would likely be trusted with an opening day 2019 job anyway, we might be better off using the rest of 2018 to sort through our current 40-man guys to find our next DFA candidates.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, there is Sano. Plus, they may only trade one of Escobar and Dozier. Or even if they traded both, they could possibly receive an infielder back, although I suppose it could be of the Motter variety. Frankly, if we're selling, I don't think it's terrible to play Astudillo, Adrianza, and Motter. None of them will be starters on opening day 2019, but at least you can sort through them for who gets DFA'd and who gets kept in a reserve role. We don't need to hand the baton to the next long-term starter right away. Also, I don't think trades "forced" the Twins to bring up Hicks -- we could have easily signed another outfielder that offseason but chose not to. Trades were even less of a factor for Buxton -- we first promoted him in June 2015, just after the super-2 deadline, when Hicks was still on the team (although I think on the DL). We could have signed another outfielder when we dealt Hicks too, but chose not to.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That appears to be the case. 94, 98, and 95 pitches in 3 starts since his demotion. No extra rest so far either, basically on a regular 5 man rotation. (Should get some extra rest this week, with the AAA all-star break... although he would have gotten that next week too in MLB.) I am skeptical of this factor, but if they keep him down until at least July 27, he will finish the season with fewer than 120 days service time, which would suggest he misses super-2 arbitration status down the road. (And if Rochester sticks with the same 5 man rotation out of the AAA all-star break, Romero could be in line to start on July 27.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    All I can tell about that is from the game log: Byron Buxton doubles (4) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Damek Tomscha. (1-2 count, 1 called strike and 1 swinging) Byron Buxton lines out to third baseman Mitch Walding. (1-2 count again, 1 swinging strike and 1 foul) Byron Buxton singles on a soft line drive to left fielder Damek Tomscha. (first pitch) Byron Buxton grounds out softly, pitcher Tom Eshelman to first baseman Joey Meneses. (2-0 count) Byron Buxton singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Damek Tomscha. (1-2 count, 3 fouls) I have no idea whether I can trust minor league Gameday, but according to that, all of his swings were on pitches in the zone (a couple were on the edge).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Littell is relatively young, but I get the impression that he was an "early bloomer". Maybe it's the beard. Perfect Game had him listed at 6'4, 201 lbs back in his draft year of 2013, and he was still only 17. (That seems to be the source of his age advantage, that he basically graduated high school a year early.) In that sense, he reminds me a bit of Gonsalves. Gonsalves was 19 for his pro debut, but he's another big kid who reached AA for 13 starts in his age 21 season. (Of course, Gonsalves was then asked to repeat AA each of the following 2 seasons...) Also interesting is that Littell has been traded twice already, first by the Mariners for a reliever, next by the Yankees for 2 months of Jaime Garcia. So despite his size/age/stats, maybe he's still seen as a bit of an underdog, stuff-wise? And I posted this elsewhere, but maybe this isn't the right organization for Littell to get an opportunity. We tried to jump-start him with call-ups already, but looking at our roster, he may only be 8th or 9th on our SP depth chart for 2018-2019.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Encouraging, though worth noting that the starter for the other team has a pretty low K rate (15.8% or 6.6 K/9, versus league averages of 22.3% and 8.5), and 4 of Buxton's 5 PAs were against him.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I hardly think that's the only scenario. Sixto Sanchez is a consensus top 25 prospect, there's basically no scenario where I see a team giving him up for 2 months of Eduardo Escobar, a guy who has a strong case to not even get a qualifying offer.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean, a future Bobby Wilson? Sure, why not. (Although at the same age, Wilson had a 104 wRC+ at AA, versus Navaretto's 73 this year.)
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