Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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This is an argument for aggressively pursuing an extension with a player before they are a mere year away from arbitration, like Dozier was this past winter. We will still have plenty of time to do that with Berrios regardless of when we call him up, unless you think he will immediately pitch like prime Pedro Martinez his first year in MLB (which even Pedro didn't do until his 5th year in MLB). -
I think you might be exaggerating Berrios' upside here too. He could be quite good very soon, but he's probably a #20 range MLB prospect with a career minor league ERA around 3. He's probably closer to Matt Garza level prospect than elite like Giolito or Urias now, or Strasburg, Price, Felix, etc. in the past. He could take things to another level eventually, a few guys certainly do, but you can't always hold back assets thinking only of their best-case scenario. That means two things for your argument: 1 ) his age-28 FA season probably isn't as unobtainable in a contract extension as you suggest. Even if does ascend to elite, it might take him a couple years (as it did Pedro Martinez and others). 2 ) it probably won't be all that difficult to justify him starting 2016 in the minors for 4-6 weeks. I doubt he's elite that quickly. We somehow used Santana and Liriano out of the bullpen for multiple months when they were apparently ready to be elite MLB starters, I am pretty sure we could send Berrios to the minors for a month. (This might actually be prudent if we want to conserve his innings a bit yet in 2016, with an eye toward possible postseason competition.)
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Responding to my own post, if the Twins recalled him Sep. 1st and didn't like how he adjusted to MLB or saw some warning signs of fatigue, I think they could option him back to the minors so he wouldn't even get the full 34 service remaining in 2016. For example, optioning him on Sep. 16 would leave him with only 15 days service time for 2015, so they could call him up as early as May 1st next year and still get that extra year of control. (And by my count, that would only mean 19 days on "optional assignment" for 2015, so the Twins would still retain the full 3 "option years" to use on Berrios in 2016 and beyond.) Even though we're only fighting for a wild card game right now, I think you'd have to be crazy to not at least give this a try in 2015. As demonstrated, you can always option Berrios later to save service time.
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Minor nitpick, Berrios is only 21. So, if he came up today and never went back down, he'd be eligible for free agency after his age 27 season. So the "extra year of control" would be his age 28 season. That said, there is no reason the Twins couldn't call him up Sep. 1, and then option him to AAA to begin 2016, then recall him on or after May 20th or so and still get that extra year of control. If that was so important to them. But, do you know of any teams that have played such service time games with pitchers? It's much less common than it is for position players, and I think that's for a good reason.
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Actually that start was over 3 weeks ago, and was followed by a minor league demotion for rest (and a nice return to MLB earlier this week). Outside of that one start, McCullers has been damn good pretty much every other game this season. The Astros are on a run of 9 straight games allowing 2 runs or fewer, I can't imagine their pitchers have been struggling too much lately. Actually, a closer look shows their SP have allowed more than 3 runs only once in their last 19 games, dating almost back to that poor McCullers start August 3rd.
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Pretty sure that poster is being sarcastic.
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I don't think the Twins are naive enough to base this solely on service time. How many pitchers have been held back for service time reasons in MLB? Even the Rays, perhaps the most frugal organization in MLB, which gave Wil Myers his 5th and 6th months in AAA just to avoid Super-2 in a playoff season, have regularly called up top pitching prospects for September pennant races.
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True, although usually a starter goes to the bullpen in that scenario. Santana won't be able to, hence we may need another arm, if not a SP than at least someone capable of long relief. I guess Duffey might be that guy if Hughes comes back to the rotation, but frankly that staff could still use the help of someone like Berrios if he is capable of providing any.
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He's going to get 2 more starts if he finishes at Rochester and is allowed a 20% innings increase over 2014. So 5 more total would really just be 3 additional starts. I think if you want to deploy him as a starter, you could aim to give him 5 starts through the rest of the regular season and the wild card game. I don't think you should get too cute about planning for the postseason beyond that, though. If you get to that point, you don't have to ride him like Bumgarner 2014, you could just use him like rookie Bumgarner in 2010 (1 start per series), assuming he is still effective, of course.
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The announcer is correct, ba-REE-ohs. For reference, Baseball-Reference has player name pronunciations, right after the name at the top of the page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=berrio000jos
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Berrios actually now has the same number of *starts* as he had in 2014 (25). We talk about innings, but without a dramatic increase there, maybe starts is a better measure for a lot of guys, considering the entirety of a starting pitcher's preparation schedule? I'm not sure if an extra 2 outs per start (his innings increase right now) should be more of a precautionary limiting factor, than simply a few more turns through the rotation. If we apply the same 20% rule to starts as we've previously done to innings, he could have 5 starts remaining. I could definitely get behind giving him those starts at the MLB level. If he adjusts quickly and succeeds, we could even take protective measures (6 man rotation, skipped starts, pitch counts, etc.) to leave open the possibility of a few extra starts beyond 30 if needed and if he is still looking strong. I wouldn't be bothered if they want to approach him in the bullpen for September too, but either way he deserves a look in MLB.
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Certainly, and he should be watched closely. But his performance and starts/innings right now don't suggest he's particularly close to this threshold. That's fair, although lots of young pitchers have done it successfully without any issues. Again, like the total innings concern, he should be monitored closely during any relief "conversion" process, but I don't think it is warranted to not even try simply out of "what if" fear.
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Correct on the 40-man, but all that means is we can add Berrios to that by August 31, recall him up Sep. 1st when rosters expand, and decide later if we want him to replace someone on the 25-man roster for the postseason. Rochester is all but eliminated from playoff contention. They are 5.5 games back in their division with 12 to play (and only play the 1st place team 2 more times), and they are 7 games and 3 teams back of the wild card. Hopefully that is no longer any kind of consideration.
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Aaron Thompson is still on the 40-man roster, as is Jason Wheeler. I can't see either being protected this winter, nor is either useful to the MLB team this September, given that we already have 4 LHP in our bullpen, plus Darnell on the 40-man at AAA, plus Taylor Rogers who could warrant 40-man protection this winter too. (Plus LHP Milone who might be on the rotation bubble if Hughes comes back or Berrios is inserted.)
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There still could be as many as 3 weeks left in the MLB season when the AA playoffs are over for Chattanooga. I think you have to give him a cup of coffee at that point.
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I've read some warnings against using minor league FIP. I don't think it is as meaningful as MLB FIP. Especially in a small sample.
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Darnell will turn 27 years old this winter. He's on a nice little run as a starter, but his rate stats during it are basically the same as last year which got him converted to relief to begin 2015 anyway. (And his relief work seemingly left something to be desired, as he wasn't called up to help the MLB pen earlier this year.) Dean also turns 27 next May. His K/9 this year is Blackburn-esque, and his career line is more volatile than Blackburn's minor league line too.
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Well, except that Bryant is scheduled to hit arb a year before Sano (as a Super 2)... but they could kind of one-up each other through the years, as each might have a claim to more than the other guy.
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The effect might be: Bryant, an elite comparable going year-to-year, could inflate the arb market. Meaning Sano could see a further bump in his pay, beyond what he'd normally receive those years.
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Article: Maybe Someday I'll Learn
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Would have been nice to finally slay the Yankee dragon, but following it with a 4 game road sweep in Baltimore is a nice consolation for the moment. It's a weird year -- at times, they seem to fall apart (in Oakland, Toronto, and New York since the break), but each time they've bounced back to win some more, although never quite at a sustained dominant clip so you never know if more wins are forthcoming. But either way, they've hung in there!- 55 replies
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- miguel sano
- eddie rosario
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Next year we probably want him to start through September (and hopefully into October). Wouldn't it make sense to let him get a taste of MLB starting action in August, then work out of the pen after the minor league season ends in September? Control the innings however you want, but I'd like to keep him in use so we don't have to talk next year about how he's never pitched a MLB length season before. (I have a feeling that innings limits might come up for May if he returns to starting in 2016 too.) Also, get him on the 40-man for September 1 and he is a playoff option, should our remote chance come to fruition.
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If it is any consolation, he should be fairly easy to resign, if we so desire.
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I was talking about the delay since July, mainly.
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You'd be hesitant to drop Aaron Thompson from the 40-man right now? Any particular reason?
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You did say Duffey's two starts were "more evidence" of the imprecision of scouting reports. Just seemed a little premature (and ironic, given your imprecision claim was based on the scouting sample being too small). Put another way, I don't think a 45 scouting grade means a guy can't occasionally exceed the level. Just like a guy with 45 power can go on a little HR binge, it isn't evidence that the scouting report is necessarily wrong. If Duffey can keep showing this curve and getting good results from it for a year or two at this level, which we all hope he does, that's the better time to really say the scouting report missed something.
