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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Plenty of blame for Magill himself too, putting two runners on before the error, and allowing a single, double, and HR immediately after the error. Edit to add: then there are the two other games in which Magill has allowed 4 runs each (earned!) since the start of June...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe the public receives any revenue from Target Field other than sales taxes. The following article itemizes $28.1 mil of Twins investments into Target Field since it opened -- $17.1 mil of which have been for bars (and they also got $5 mil from the public Ballpark Authority for one of their bar projects too): https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ya1OEaSrCdEJ:https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2019/03/27/target-field-at-year-10-ballpark-continues-to.html+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us And I'm not sure what any of this has to do with their willingness to invest in the product on the field.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    But to what end? To invest in more highly profitable bars?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    You must have really appreciated the TR years then! Every trade deadline, every offseason -- low key to the max!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The Reds were hoping to contend this year, if not for the division then at least the wild card. It's why they acquired and extended Gray to begin with. I don't see why we should expect the last 3-4 months to have dramatically altered that outlook. And there's a huge difference between listening on Castillo and hoping for a blockbuster return and moving Gray for Arraez/Thorpe as you suggested.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that when Harvey was the same age as Syndergaard now, he already had TJ surgery and was only a few months away from thoratic outlet surgery on his shoulder. If you assume that combo platter of injuries will happen to everyone, you'll never want to acquire another pitcher ever.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Presumably a trade for a reliever would make it less likely that our 7th inning reliever gives up a 3 run HR, or that our 8th inning reliever would allow both a walk and a hit before the warning track fly ball which Rosario dropped, not to mention the double, single, HR, and 4 more runs which immediately followed the error... I didn't see Tuesday's game, but likewise, perhaps an acquired SP might make it less likely that our SP would allow 2 hits, a sac fly, and a wild pitch and passed ball all in the same inning before a fielding error?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Also from the tangent thread: First of all, Buxton was still the consensus #1 prospect at that point in his career. Lewis is still a good prospect but not particularly close to #1 overall anymore, is he? Additionally, while Graterol still seems to be ranked close to where Berrios was at that point, it should be noted that Graterol has already had TJ surgery and is on track to miss most of his age 20 season due to shoulder issues too. He's much, much riskier now than Berrios was at the same point. That said, if deGrom has Scherzer's or Greinke's career from age 31-36, surrounded by a currently contending Twins team, it may still "work out" even if Lewis and Graterol go on to perform like Buxton and Berrios for some future Twins teams of undetermined contention status in 2022 any beyond.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    From the tangent in the other thread: Are you using fWAR? deGrom has two 5+ bWAR seasons through age 30, despite not debuting until age 26. The same number as Greinke through the same age, and just one fewer than Scherzer, despite both debuting earlier. Age 26-30 deGrom: 18.2 WAA, 25.3 WAR (24.4 fWAR) in 139 GS (he was first called up in his age 26 season) Scherzer: 15.3 WAA, 24.7 WAR (24.7 fWAR) in 163 GS Greinke: 8.8 WAA, 17.2 WAR (20.9 fWAR) in 155 GS (to be fair, Greinke's big year was age 25) Sale so far: 14.5 WAA, 22.9 WAR (27.4 fWAR) in 141 GS Kershaw: 21.6 WAA, 29.0 WAR (30.6 fWAR) in 134 GS https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=26,30&filter=&players=2036,3137,1943,10954,10603&startdate=&enddate= I think deGrom fares pretty well in this comparison, no?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    We need that dome field advantage!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. Magill's 3 option years were burned in 2013, 2014, and 2015.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Jeremy right now:
  13. Otto von Ballpark
  14. Otto von Ballpark
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    No 40 man roster spot is involved here. The MLB club didn't select him from one of their affiliates. The org purchased his contract from an indy league team. The terminology is admittedly confusing!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, the Reds DFA'd Duke and released him earlier this month.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Before anyone gets the wrong idea from this post, no, Humber was no longer a top 100 prospect anywhere by the time we acquired him. (He had been ranked sporadically previously.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean soon-to-be 30 year old Trevor May, with team control running out after 2020? What seller wants to buy him right now?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Fine. Would you rather look at more recent results? Soria's K/9 was 9.7 in 2016-2017; 9.5 from 2013-2017 (Smith is at 12.0 since 2013). Not that 9.8 is necessarily bad or anything, but especially considering their ages, there's no way to slice it to suggest Soria was likely to maintain his 11.4 mark with the White Sox in 2018. So John using that figure to try to equate Soria's value to that of Smith is misleading.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    SF needs everything. If they are going to reverse their fortunes from the past few years, they are going to need far more than just the proceeds from their 2019 deadline trades. To best achieve that, their preferred plan is probably getting the best quality they can at this deadline, and hope that improved drafting/scouting/development can improve their depth from within, just as the Twins have done the past few years. Because it's harder to quickly get quality prospects from within. But at the same time, they may not hold out for a 50 FV guy here if they have an offer on the table with three 45 FV guys they really like. So in that sense, I agree with you. However, that kind of quantity/depth trade doesn't mean they will just take our spare parts, injured/underperforming prospects, or surplus Rule 5 eligibles, as is often suggested around here!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana was 11 years ago and the GM that traded him has long since been removed from baseball personnel decisions. Scherzer was a prospect at the time himself, I don't know why you included him. De Grom is an ace right now and controlled 3.5-5.5 seasons, albeit at high salaries. Sale was younger/cheaper but fetched the #1 overall prospect plus a top 30-40 guy. Quintana was no ace but he fetched a top 10 guy. Hamels fetched a couple top 100 guys and others. If you actually want De Grom now and for that long, no, you can't lead your offer with an injured Graterol and Rooker. If you think that is all he is worth to you, then you are saying you don't want him and he will remain a Met. He is not getting dealt for that in 2019.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I see where you are coming from, but -- do you have another method of acquiring that good of a pitcher? No one on the current trade market looks as good as him.... Gerrit Cole is a FA but you will have to outbid the Astros and others, and that will cost a lot more than the ~$130 mil due to de Grom, and won't help you in 2019.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Martinez missed some time to injury in 2018, and when he came back in August, they just put him in the pen since they had a pretty good rotation otherwise. 2019, Martinez had some shoulder issue during spring training, so they put him back in the pen when he returned in May, just to be safe. There were some rumblings about moving him back to the rotation this summer, but they still have other SP options while their closer is out after TJ surgery. It seems like they don't want to have to stretch out Martinez midseason.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it is a lot of HR, but those HR aren't hit in a vacuum. So Gordon may be getting benefits on some of his doubles too. And he may get more indirect benefits as well -- maybe he sees more pitches to hit, to square up some if those doubles to the gap, with more likely HR hitters behind him.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The money generally doesn't matter much in the second half. For example, Bumgarner, Smith, Stroman, Giles, and Wheeler are due only about 4, 1.5, 2.5, 2.1, and 2 million, respectively, over the last 2 months of this season. Fortunately for Pohlad, there doesn't seem to be any big contracts on the trade market this year, like past cases of Verlander, Hamels, etc. The closest appears to be Greinke, and he already did Pohlad the favor of putting us on his no-trade list.
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