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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano's HR/FB rate this year is 34.0%. You really want to count on that going forward as real, projectable improvement? And even with that, it only gets him *equal* in fWAR rate to Syndergaard's *worst* season so far. You might be right that the gap is too wide, but it should still be very, very wide. Kirilloff would definitely get you closer, and is a better reflection of their relative values. But once you include Kirilloff (or perhaps Lewis), like another poster said, that gets you close enough to Syndergaard that it doesn't make much sense for the Twins to also subtract from our current 25-man (Sano) just to add a reliever (or two) to this deal.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I could see an argument that Syndergaard is too high there, but I do think he should be way ahead of Boyd or Stroman. Stroman's career high is 3.5 fWAR so far (which is interestingly his career rate per 31 starts too). Syndergaard's high is 5.9 fWAR, with 5.0 per 31 starts, and an extra year of control over Stroman. Stroman's been more inconsistent in terms of RA9-WAR too (using actual runs allowed instead of FIP). Boyd is on pace for 4.9 fWAR this year, but only 3.8 RA9-WAR, and he has virtually no track record of success prior to 2019. Yes, he has an extra year of control over Syndergaard, but who knows what you will get from him then (especially at age 31).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano is still striking out in 37.5% of his PA in 2019. Per 600 PA, Sano has averaged about 2.4 fWAR per 600 PA. Even neutralizing defense and position, it's only 3.0 WAR per 600 PA. His "rising" is a nice HR binge, which has value (up to 4.1 fWAR per 600 PA at his 2019 rates), but it's not really comparable value to a once and potential future ace, is it? Syndergaard has averaged 5.0 fWAR per 31 starts in his career. Even in his "down" year of 2019, he's accumulating fWAR on par with Sano's "rising" 2019 -- 4.2 pace. And in terms of health, Syndergaard's missed time is mostly concentrated in one season (2017). Sano hasn't managed a full season since 2015. That's going to affect projections. Furthermore, there are still real questions about Sano at 3B -- especially on an NL team (no DH spot available) with 1B blocked. If Sano had 4+ years of control, maybe I could squint and see it. But at 2 years of control, I can't see why the Mets would be interested in this exchange, without significant other pieces (on the level of Lewis or Kirilloff).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I was going to say the exact same thing too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure. Two position player prospects for a pitcher is risky, especially looking at Syndergaard's dropping K% from afar. And even if our experts think they can get him back on track, can they do it in time for the 2019 postseason? The 2020-2021 control is good, but the potential 2019 benefit is a big part of paying a premium here.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder how much of that was scapegoating, though. It was a disappointing season for the whole team in 2018, and it would be pretty natural to lay that at the feet of newcomers/short-timers. That said, I have no idea if he's a good trade target for us now.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Lewis and Kirilloff together are enough to get both Syndergaard and Lugo, per baseballtradevalues.com
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that works. Even if the Mets like Sano at 3B, he's only got 2 years of control left. (Yes, so does Syndergaard, but the idea behind a Syndergaard trade would be to get an elite player controlled beyond 2 years, not just do an exchange.) I know baseballtradevalues.com isn't gospel and is certainly open to debate, but the spread of this trade might be too wide to ignore: 147.8 from the Mets, 44.4 from the Twins. By the time you could tweak this proposal to make it work, it's probably no longer worth it for the Twins to sacrifice Sano anymore either. Especially if he's good enough that the Mets would want him!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams will still be able to play some DL/options games with that 28, though. So the active 28 will probably change a few times that month. Although that could be limited too by the proposed increase back to a 15-day IL minimum, plus a proposed 15-day optional assignment minimum for pitchers -- not to mention, you can't option a player to a minor league team whose season/postseason has concluded. (So we might see a higher value put on minor league teams making the postseason?)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Mets are limited in their valuation of Arraez a bit by their current roster. They've got a top prospect installed at SS, and an unmovable contract at 2B (blocked from moving to 1B by Alonso). I guess 3B should open up with Frazier being a pending FA, but they also have Lowrie under contract for 2020, plus McNeil capable of playing third (and JD Davis capable of standing near third with a glove). Not that Arraez couldn't have value to the Mets, but they wouldn't be able to assign/capture his full value.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not counting on the trade to produce good results in MLB until 2010 is what makes it a bad trade. We needed Johan in 2008, and we'd still have 2 years to find a long-term alternative in the outfield other than Gomez (and in fact, we had a pretty good alternative under our nose already in Span).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    In other circumstances, perhaps. A player going up and down with the 2016 Twins, or even the 2018 Twins -- yeah, it could be frustrating. But on the 2019 Twins, the player buy-in would seem to be easiest. Obviously they'd all prefer to stay in Minnesota, but I expect that Smeltzer, Littell, etc. consider themselves part of this team and part of something special right now, even while taking the flight back to Rochester.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Romero's adjustment problem has to do with pitching, not the flights from Rochester to Minneapolis.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think you need retrospect to know that it was the best course of action. The Twins were already contenders, with Mauer/Morneau entering their primes. I know there's a feeling of "we can't let him walk in a year for nothing" but Johan had immense value to us in 2008. And that package from the Mets was pretty "meh" from day 1, especially for a contending team -- an interesting but raw CF who's going to have to learn on the job in MLB, a lotto ticket pitcher who is years away from anything, and a couple extremely fungible AAA arms. If the 2008 season went south, we still would have been able to deal Johan at the deadline, and I can't see us getting a notably worse package than that in July -- and only 2 months away from FA, maybe Johan is less interested in an extension by then, which would open us up to more suitors and potentially an even better package.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Wheeler will cost more, but given his numbers and the depression of FA salaries, it may not be that much. An Eovaldi-type contract, perhaps? I agree a deadline extension seems unlikely. Edit: maybe not even that much. A Cobb-type deal? Lynn?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, they're not wrong in that assumption!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    We were as low as 8 games under .500 in 2006...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, it is a minor league deal. He was signed by Boston on a minor league deal last winter and has yet to be added to a 40-man roster this year.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Diekman is indeed 11th among qualified relievers in K/9 at Fangraphs -- but only 21st in K%. His K/9 is inflated a bit by the extra batters he faces (walks).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Last I looked, Syndergaard's K% had fallen each of the last 3 years, to the point where it was just a little above league average now.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems that Boston's protest was about where the pitchers were inserted into the batting order, since Tampa didn't specify. But it didn't affect the outcome at all, and there is zero chance the protest is upheld.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Adrianza vs the Mets was pretty blatant. I think he broke 60 MPH, but they sure looked like batting practice tosses.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins went 5-1 vs the "bad" Angels in May too, which is the bulk of our 5 wins above .500 vs .500+ teams. Cleveland played Seattle when they were still above .500 too; the Twins, below. We could play these micro-parsing games all day. I absolutely agree the Cleveland schedule is tougher the rest of the way, but I thought Brock took it a little too far to say their record so far means they've been "pretty bad against good teams" generally. It's just too small of a sample to make that general conclusion. And on the general topic, I still expect the Twins will beat Cleveland for the division. So don't think I am arguing that!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I was mainly pushing back against your statement that the 15-21 record means "they've been pretty bad against good teams this season". They were bad against Oakland and Tampa (2-8). Is that enough to conclude they've been "pretty bad against good teams" generally? They have been better than the Twins vs BOS, NYY, and HOU (6-4 as compared to the Twins 7-9). Part of only having 36 games vs .500+ teams is that it's a small sample and doesn't necessarily mean that much in general terms. You're right, though, that the 36 is significant for what it implies about their remaining strength of schedule.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you are a defender of the Capps trade, but I feel it is my sacred duty to correct this mis-information. Allow myself to quote... myself: Short version: Capps performed well for us in 2010, but was almost entirely a non-factor in the Twins beating the White Sox for the division title that year. As far as Mauer/Ramos, even before the concussion, remember it was "bilateral leg weakness" that sunk Mauer's 2011 season, a season where we had contention aspirations but had to start Butera and sign catchers off the street. The Twins had the worst catcher performance in baseball in 2011 (-3.0 WAA per B-Ref, and even worse WAR) while Ramos did quite well (113 OPS+) in 435 PA for the Nationals in 2011, with zero days on the DL. We were bad enough in 2011 that I don't know if even Ramos would have saved the season, but it clearly was a bigger factor than TR re-signing Capps as you complain about (Capps wasn't great but did manage 1.0 bWAR in 95 IP from 2011-2012).
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